The Challenges of Change ambiTion and Peril

36 Pages·2011·0.79 MB·English

#1 April 2011
PersPectives
Political analysis and commentary from the Middle East
image here
Tahmeb CiThioanll aenndg ePse roifl Change
nuClear energy
and The arab world
Contents
Editorial - Nuclear Energy and the Arab Spring 3
n The Arab Region as Part of a Nuclear Renaissance: Outlooks and
Alternatives
Dennis Kumetat and Nikolaus Supersberger 4
n Nuclear Reactors or Hernia Surgery?
Najib Saab 9
n Going Nuclear: An Arab Oppenheimer? An Arab Response to
Iranian Nuclear Energy Ambitions Should be Dictated by Wisdom
and Not by Emotion
Larbi Sadiki 11
n Women and Nuclear Energy
Leila Ghanem 14
n United Arab Emirates (UAE): The Nuclear Program and Renewable
Energy Alternatives
Mohamed Abdel Raouf 17
n Energy of the Future Instead of Technology From the Past
Jürgen Trittin 23
n We Need a Long Term Advocacy Strategy Towards a Nuclear Free
Region
Interview with Ali Darwish 26
n Nuclear vs. Renewables? Energy Options for Iran
Hamed Beheshti 30
heinrich böll foundation – middle east

The Heinrich Böll Foundation, associated with the German Green Party, is a legally autonomous
and intellectually open political foundation.
Our foremost task is civic education in Germany and abroad with the aim of promoting informed
democratic opinion, socio-political commitment and mutual understanding. In addition the Heinrich
Böll Foundation supports artistic and cultural as well as scholarly projects, and co-operation in the
development field. The political values of ecology, democracy, gender democracy, solidarity and
non-violence are our chief points of reference. Heinrich Böll’s belief in and promotion of citizen
participation in politics is the model for the foundation’s work.
Our programme areas in the Middle East are:
n Statehood & Participation
n Conflict & International Politics
n Environmental Justice
n Culture & Dialogue
2 Heinrich Böll Stiftung
editorial - nuclear energy and the arab spring
After decades of relative quiet, popular The transfer and use of modern technologies
discontent erupted massively in Arab streets. requires such decisions. Among the most
Starting with the protests in Tunisia, and across controversial of all, the civilian use of nuclear
social, political and demographic boundaries, energy ranks high on the list. The nuclear
Arab populations are openly challenging disaster in the Japanese city of Fukushima on
those tenets of power that oppressed them 11 March 2011 has brought the destructive
for decades. Aged dictators are forced into potential of this technology to the forefront
exile. In some countries, authoritarian rule, again. A leading industrial nation, Japan was
hereditary presidencies and exclusive decision- not able to prevent the exposure of its citizens
making by isolated elites seem patterns of to massive hazards and risks as a result of
the past. Dignity is the word of the day. Arab the nuclear meltdown. Should Arab countries
societies long portrayed as conglomerates with less advanced technological capacities
of tribal confederations and clan-based invest in nuclear energy production that proved
clienteles rediscover in their revolts collective uncontrollable in Japan? Why do Arab decision-
responsibility and sense of belonging. Identical makers perceive nuclear energy as bridge
slogans and political demands are reverberating to the solar age and potential to decrease
in the main squares of Tunis, Cairo, Sanaa and the dependency of external resources? Why
many other cities. The collective movements is nuclear power so popular, despite its
that proved so powerful, mature and disciplined negative reputation in reliability, security and
in overthrowing the top brass of oppressive sustainability? What are the viewpoints of civil
structures in Tunisia und Egypt are now facing society?
the massive task to transform ailing political These and other questions will be discussed
institutions, to reform security apparatuses, in the first edition of Perspectives Middle East
to combat corrupt structures, and to increase - Political Analysis and Commentary, of the
opportunities for social, economic and political Heinrich Böll Stiftung. Analysts, activists and
participation. In Libya, the country’s leadership decision-makers in the region and Europe
is waging outright war against the uprising of take a critical look at the emergence of nuclear
its people. And in again other countries, such energy programs in the Arab world. The eight
as Algeria, Bahrain, Syria, Saudi-Arabia and the articles and interviews of this e-publication will
Gulf in general, authoritarian rule seems deeply be followed by a special issue of Perspectives
entrenched and quite resilient. Middle East in April 2011, with an in-depth
Despite all uncertainties, one factor is clear: focus on the extraordinary developments of the
there is an element of irreversible change and Arab revolutions.
open debate in the Arab World, and a sense Perspectives Middle East is a publication
that democratic participation is not limited series of the Heinrich Böll Stiftung’s offices in
to forming political parties and competing Beirut and Ramallah that seeks to provide a
in elections. Today, Arab citizens claim their platform for presenting analysis and viewpoints
right to be informed and to have a word when primarily of experts from the region.
decisions are being taken by governments that
may affect the very future of their societies. layla al-Zubaidi, director, heinrich böll stiftung,
middle east office beirut
Joachim Paul, director, heinrich böll stiftung, middle
east office ramallah
Heinrich Böll Stiftung 3
The arab region as Part of a nuclear
renaissance: outlooks and alternatives
exporters only)
Dawn or twilight:
Nuclear Ambitions in the MeNA region In the current political environments, nuclear
A considerable amount has been written about ambitions are manifold. In general, supporters
a global nuclear renaissance. Some new plants of nuclear energy in the MENA region present
are in the construction stage, e.g. one reactor in the following arguments for the construction of
Finland and several in China. Other countries nuclear power plants:
are considering introducing, extending or ƒƒ the creation of high-level jobs for economic
prolonging nuclear programs. The Middle East growth
and North Africa (MENA) region has long been ƒƒ ensuring a secure energy supply for the
a hotspot of discussions and announcements
rapidly increasing demand for power
in favour of using nuclear energy. Most MENA
ƒƒ reducing energy import dependence in the
states have expressed a strong interest in civil
non-OPEC countries
nuclear energy and, at the time of writing, the
ƒƒ supplying environmentally friendly energy
UAE has signed a contract with a South Korean
with containable risks
consortium to start constructing the first nuclear
ƒƒ reducing domestic fossil fuel consumption
reactor in 2012.
and keeping export levels high
ƒƒ achieving technological leadership in the
Renewable electricity projects
region and beyond
(even large-scale ones) have
ƒƒ acquiring prestige for internal and external
considerably shorter lead times political agendas
Dennis Kumetat
and can thus contribute to In the following article, we aim to analyse some
Dennis Kumetat is a PhD
the supply of national power of the main arguments and conclude that
scholar at London School
nuclear energy is not a preferable energy option
of Economics. Within the demands significantly faster.
Kuwait Programme, he for the MENA states.
works on renewable energy
strategies in the Arab
OPEC states with a special Energy demand in the MENA countries is Nuclear energy for the Middle east:
focus on the UAE and rising fast and steadily. This often brings the Major Obstacles and Pitfalls
Algeria. He is also visiting
about increasing instability of electricity grids, The contribution of a secure and stable
fellow at the German
Wuppertal Institute for supply deficits and decreasing energy security. electricity supply: it is doubtful that nuclear
Climate, Energy and Additionally, the energy sectors in MENA energy will guarantee a stable and secure
Environment, where he
countries are facing other major problems: electricity supply in all MENA countries, as
co-authors the study
“Transcontinental energy ƒƒ high energy subsidies paid by governments nuclear power is not the appropriate solution to
interconnections from an
ƒƒ a lack of incentives to use energy efficiently the current level of average growth in electricity
Algerian perspective”. He
demand. Lead times for nuclear power plants
holds degrees in history ƒƒ the absence of sustainable long-term and
from Cologne University, are usually around about 8-12 years (and by
environmental policies
and in Middle Eastern
experience they can stretch out even further).
studies from the American ƒƒ limited potential to further increase
University of Beirut. Therefore nuclear power cannot fill the demand
the production of crude oil (valid for oil
4 Heinrich Böll Stiftung
gap in a timely manner. Contrary to this, in a research project by the Wuppertal Institute
renewable electricity projects (even large-scale and Adelphi Consult (Energy Systems in OPEC
ones) have considerably shorter lead times and Countries of the Middle East and North Africa -
can thus contribute to the supply of national System Analytic Comparison of Nuclear Power,
power demands significantly faster. Evidently, Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency).
the fastest way to tackle pressing supply issues The consideration of system size reveals
is the utilisation of energy efficiency potentials another dimension: many MENA countries
also try to use renewable energy for electricity
production. However, depending on the
It could become impossible
absolute amount of intermittent renewable
to introduce both renewable energy capacity installed, it could become
and nuclear power due to impossible to introduce both renewable and
nuclear power due to the different nature of
the different nature of both
both approaches. While renewable energies are
approaches.
mostly intermittent (except concentrating solar
power plants with large heat storage systems),
that are significant in all states of the region. nuclear power is supposed to operate on a
system stability is closely linked to technical 24/7 basis. Furthermore, an energy-efficient
characteristics. The size of an electricity system energy system runs counter to the introduction
is most relevant in this regard because the of nuclear power because in an energy system
relation of absolute size and the single largest that is more efficient, total generation capacity
power generation unit is crucial for factors such would be lower and this would make it even
as backup-capabilities. The Algerian energy more difficult to integrate large nuclear power
system, for instance, is probably too small to be units.
able to integrate nuclear power (nuclear energy Looking at the construction costs of nuclear
was originally projected to contribute around power plants, investment costs for nuclear
10% to domestic electricity production by 2020 power were historically characterised by strong
Nikolaus supersberger
with probably only one reactor in operation), cost overruns. Indeed, after going on-grid, total
however the integration of a large generation construction costs were often more than twice Nikolaus Supersberger
is working as business
unit is technically complex in the small electricity as high as initially projected (see table 1). This
developer for the
system in Algeria and requires very large makes it very difficult to reliably calculate the Deutsche Gesellschaft
für Internationale
reserve capacities, given that power plants have total costs of nuclear power.
Zusammenarbeit (GIZ).
regular maintenance cycles. Unforeseen shut- Investment costs for renewable energy
Prior that he undertook
downs would also cause blackouts. Detailed technologies are also higher than those of research and policy
consulting at the
assessments of systems sizes were conducted natural gas-based combined cycle plants.
Wuppertal Institute for
Climate, Environment and
table 1: cost estimations and real costs of nuclear power plants Energy. He specializes in
energy system analysis,
nuclear Plant original Cost focusing on socio-
actual Cost Cost escalation
(start of building) estimation economic consequences
of renewable energies and
75 operational reactors in USA US $ 45 billion US $145 billion1 + 324%
energy efficiency in the
Middle East and North
Tarapur III and IV, India
Rs Crores 2,428 Rs Crores 6,2002 + 255% Africa. He holds degrees
(implementing 2006)
in political sciences,
Temelin, Czech Repulic (2007) CZK 20 billion CZK 99 billion3 + 495% oceanography, and
environmental technology.
Sizewell B, UK (1987) GBP £1.691 million GBP £3.7 million4 + 219% In his PhD thesis he
developed scenarios of
EPR OL 3 Olkiluoto, Finland (2003) Euro €3.2 billion Euro €4.5 billion5 Min. + 41%
sustainable energy use for
1 Thomas, Bradford, Froggatt, Milborrow (2007). 2 Ramana et al. (2005). 3 IEA 2001 (for 1998). 4 House of Commons (1990). 5 Alich/Hopfner (2008) OPEC countries.
Heinrich Böll Stiftung 5
Accordingly, total investments will be them directly after their depletion to guarantee
considerably higher. However, the situation of maximum transparency of all nuclear material.
an energy exporter is very different from that It should be noted that for an oil-exporting
of energy importers. By sparing natural gas in country like the UAE, relying on nuclear fuel
the domestic electricity sector, more gas could imports will mean a certain loss of energy
be exported thus generating foreign currency. autonomy. Even if a country is endowed with
This effect is larger than the cumulative uranium ore (like Algeria and to some extent
differential costs of renewable and natural Iran), the processing stages for ore mining
to the production of yellow cake to fuel rod
production are very complex and require
It is improbable that MENA
wide-ranging technological and engineering
states will be able to establish expertise that is currently not available in MENA
a strong domestic nuclear countries. Thus, building up domestic uranium
mining industries does not make countries
engineering industry that
independent from nuclear fuel imports. This
will be able to supply all
is different for the use of renewable energies.
the essential technological
Although import dependence on technologies
components of a nuclear power will be an issue for the first few years of a
plant in the foreseeable future. large-scale deployment of renewable energy
capacities, it is much easier to establish
domestic renewable energy industry structures.
gas technologies. By including natural gas Besides the proliferation risks, other
price curves in the calculation, there is a very non-technological aspects of nuclear power
strong indication that Iran would economically have to be taken into consideration. Since
benefit from such a substitution strategy, even the earliest days of the nuclear industry, its
at natural gas prices that are considerably lower supporters have promoted the allegedly clean
than current prices in Europe. and environmentally friendly aspects of this
Another argument commonly employed technology, particularly in comparison to
by proponents of a nuclear future is the conventional power plants. This argument
enhanced independence from energy imports. has recently been fuelled by the climate
This argument has to be put into perspective: change discourse and the admittedly low
no MENA country has enough uranium ore carbon emissions of a nuclear power plant.
reserves to sustain a domestic nuclear fuel Nonetheless, other burdens are heavy and
supply. Consequently, nuclear fuels will have should not be readily dismissed. Apart from
to be imported during the full lifetime of the the risk of accidents in nuclear power plants,
power plant. At the same time, it is improbable the entire life cycle of nuclear power generation
that MENA states will be able to establish a is highly wasteful and environmentally costly.
strong domestic nuclear engineering industry Uranium mining leaves behind a contaminated
that will be able to supply all the essential soil and the issue of the disposal of nuclear
technological components of a nuclear power waste is still far from being solved on a global
plant in the foreseeable future. Therefore, level.
import dependencies will not be avoidable In contrast to that, the life cycle analysis of
for MENA countries on these two levels all modes of renewable electricity production
(fuels and technologies). This problem has looks far better in all respects. As mentioned
been addressed only by the UAE so far. Its above, the UAE found an elegant solution
government officially stated that it intends to these problems on a national level. By
to import fuel rods only and will then export importing fuel rods and exporting depleted ones
6 Heinrich Böll Stiftung
as part of a leasing scheme, the UAE would the fate of developing economies? (It most
fully externalise the environmental burden and certainly is not). However, most Middle Eastern
human health risks of the nuclear fuel cycle energy policy frameworks are not suited to
to foreign countries. However, problems of tackle this problem as the key demand driver in
mining and the disposal of depleted rods do the region can be seen in the omnipresent, high
not disappear on a global scale; they are simply electricity subsidies that are paid to electricity
shifted from one country to another. customers of all income groups in the same
It has been argued that the construction manner. Far-reaching reforms of MENA energy
of nuclear power plants in the region would price regimes seem inevitable to guarantee a
have benefits for the local job market and this long-term, stable and secure energy supply.
argument deserves further scrutiny as well. As This includes the introduction of energy saving
previously stated, it is highly unlikely that a full- incentives such as the reduction of subsidies to
fledged nuclear industry will be established in make consumers pay real prices.
In general, the demand side has to be
emphasised when it comes to sustainable
It seems the system-wide
energy solutions. This includes mainly energy
benefits of energy efficiency efficiency measures and incentive schemes.
are underestimated in the Various studies show that by fostering energy
efficiency measures, there would be no
region in general.
intrinsic necessity for high demand growth in
MENA countries. It seems that the system-
the MENA region in due course. Even if this wide benefits of energy efficiency are under-
happens though, the potential for domestic estimated in the region in general. Some of the
jobs will be limited to a few nuclear engineers, most important benefits could be the reduction
traders and power plant construction and of external costs of energy consumption, large
maintenance workers. In the case of a strong net benefits in economic and trade balance
renewable energy commitment, they would terms (e.g. via an increase in oil and gas
easily be outnumbered by the large job creation exports), as well as enhanced energy security.
such a program would trigger, not only in the All of these approaches would make nuclear
highly-skilled labour market but also in the power in MENA countries dispensable, simply
application, installation and maintenance from the perspective of energy demand.
sector, where a high number of low-skills jobs
could be created as well. In all likelihood, this Alternatives for Power Production
would have a lasting effect on the strained To consider the supply side, what direct
domestic labour market. Energy efficiency alternatives exist to nuclear power? Once again,
measures could also create numerous jobs in analysis shows that renewable energies would
the retrofitting and maintenance sector. be the preferable option. The key reasons for
this are the following:
coping with rising electricity Demand in the ƒƒ Natural potentials are very large to satisfy
MeNA region future energy demand in MENA countries.
The traditional approach to rising demand has ƒƒ The ecological burden is by several orders
been to increase the supply base by working
of magnitude lower than for nuclear power.
on the supply side. However, this approach
ƒƒ Although renewable energy technologies
seems to be more and more outdated and
are significantly more expensive than those
close attention should instead be given to the
for fossil fuels, their large-scale deployment
demand side: how can energy demand be
generates enormous economical benefits
curbed? Is ever-increasing energy consumption
especially for energy exporting countries:
Heinrich Böll Stiftung 7
using renewable energies domestically
for the opposite effect; for flexible and partly
allows increased exports of crude oil and
decentralised forms of power production or for
natural gas.
ƒƒ Technologies for renewable energies
would have to be imported in the first few In conclusion, nuclear energy
years, but compared to nuclear energy is neither inevitable nor the
technologies it would be easier to establish
most desirable option for
domestic production facilities.
energy supply and the future
ƒƒ By using renewable energies and energy
energy policy dimensions of the
efficiency measures MENA countries
MENA countries.
could also create a win-win situation in
the climate change regime. As potential
frontrunners of climate protection they
the inflexible alternative of big industry. They
could strongly benefit from international
can foster large-scale job creation and become
technological transfer and act as a group
leaders of renewable energy (and energy
to foster the change to sustainable energy
efficiency) innovation - or continue pursuing an
systems on a global scale.
outdated form of energy policy that is fixated
ƒƒ Scenarios show that renewable energies on demand growth, short-term solutions and
and energy efficiency would generate very long-term costs, coupled with unforeseeable
high export revenues for Iran and other externalities.
hydrocarbon-exporting MENA countries.
Due to various energy indicators that
are identical for all OPEC members, the
results can be generalised for OPEC as
a whole: countries would benefit from
a high renewable electricity share in
their domestic energy systems and from
domestic energy efficiency measures.
Taking the current situation of OPEC in
the climate regime into consideration,
efficiency and renewable energy could
be a powerful means to convince
these countries to take a sustainable
development path as well as overcome
their previous tactics of thwarting the
climate negotiations.
In conclusion, nuclear energy is neither
inevitable nor the most desirable option for
energy supply and the future energy policy
dimensions of the MENA countries. Renewable
energies and energy efficiency measures are
alternatives that show significantly greater
benefits. Regional stakeholders can (and must)
choose how they want to shape domestic and
regional energy futures. They can opt for the
sustainable development of energy systems or
8 Heinrich Böll Stiftung
nuclear reactors or hernia surgery?
T
he debate on the use of nuclear power I was asked, “Are you afraid of the
in Europe inspired an Italian cinema devastating effects of nuclear radiation in the
company, MOROL Productions, to Arab region, given the possibility of an accident
produce a documentary entitled ‘The similar to Chernobyl at an Iranian nuclear
Nuclear Question’. This documentary was reactor?” This opening question surprised me
shown at the Rome Film Festival in October because before the Lebanese should fear the
2009 and received awards for presenting the effects of an accident 2,000 km away in Iran,
they should fear a nuclear accident in the Israeli
Dimona reactor, which is only 200 km away.
The danger lies in luring some
This also assumes that we limit fears to a mere
countries into buying ready-
accident. The Dimona reactor produces fuel for
made nuclear technology and
nuclear warheads and is located in a country
equipment, under the pretext which is at war with its neighbours and which
of a regional balance of power, refuses to sign the Treaty of Non-Proliferation
of Nuclear Weapons. Iran has signed that treaty
which may lead to wasting
but is still suspected of pursuing its nuclear
national wealth in an absurd
program for military ends. What guarantees
race.
can the Lebanese and the Arabs have against
Najib saab
an intentionally triggered nuclear apocalyptic
nuclear question from ethical, environmental attack, especially from a country with which Najib Saab, an architect
by training, is publisher
and economical perspectives. they are officially considered to be in a state of
and editor-in-chief of the
A quarter of a century after the Chernobyl war with? pan-Arab magazine Al-Bia
wal-Tanmia (Environment
disaster and its repercussions, and three Furthermore, at the opposite end of the
& Development), and
decades after the Three Miles Island nuclear Mediterranean, dozens of nuclear reactors exist
secretary general
accident in the US, the film poses several in France and it is sufficient for just one accident of the Arab Forum
for Environment &
questions: is there a moral justification for to occur for radiation to reach Arab countries
Development (AFED).
accepting the potentially disastrous results across the Mediterranean. Moreover, Turkey is He is a 2003 laureate
of nuclear accidents in order to meet raising preparing to construct nuclear reactors on the of the United Nations
Environment Program’s
energy demands? Is the nuclear energy option Akoya coast close to Cyprus, only 300 km away
Global 500 Award
inevitable? Or was Italy’s 1987 decision to ban from Beirut. for environmental
nuclear reactors (based on a referendum held “These reactors are all closer to us,” I achievement. Saab has
published numerous books
after the Chernobyl disaster) a wise decision? pointed out to my interviewer. He commented
on environmental and
When MOROL recently approached me to that in spite of this, many Arab countries have developmental issues,
and authors a monthly
request an interview for another documentary on begun to build nuclear power stations. “This
editorial published
nuclear energy in the Arab region, I welcomed is true,” I told him, “and Arab countries have
simultaneously in 12 Arab
the idea and found it useful to contribute to a multiple motives. Some suffer from a deficit dailies. Saab played a key
role in climate change
serious discussion on the subject in the Arab in energy resources yet possess stocks of
negotiations leading to
region. uranium, plan to extract it and use it to produce the Cancun Agreements.
Heinrich Böll Stiftung 9
electricity from nuclear energy, as is the case in desalination plants? Is a nuclear reactor more
Jordan.” Feasibility studies often ignore the cost important than developing medical services so
of dismantling nuclear reactors and dealing with
the waste which, apart from the environmental
Ultimately, is it not more
risks, would increase the liabilities and outweigh
useful to invest in renewable
potential economic benefits in any case.
energies, especially sun and
Moreover, other Arab countries are rich in
conventional energy resources and still want wind, which are free, clean,
to ‘purchase’ nuclear technology under the safe and abundantly available
banner of diversifying energy resources and
in the Arab region, before
accelerating development. The danger lies in
seeking to produce nuclear
luring some countries into buying ready-made
electricity?
nuclear technology and equipment, under the
pretext of a regional balance of power, which
may lead to wasting national wealth in an absurd that citizens are not forced to travel to foreign
race. This race is not based on developing hospitals, like the Mayo Clinic, for surgery as
and owning technology but on buying ready- simple as removing a hernia or a gallbladder?
made equipment from ‘international sales Ultimately, is it not more useful to invest in
representatives’, including heads of state, renewable energies, especially sun and wind,
who offer both nuclear reactors and military which are free, clean, safe and abundantly
equipment on the same plate, sometimes as available in the Arab region, before seeking to
part of so-called ‘peace initiatives’. produce nuclear electricity?
It seems my answer provoked my interviewer, Arabs have the right to develop and own
so he asked, “Are you against Arabs acquiring technology, including nuclear, on condition that
advanced technology, including nuclear?” Of they identify priorities and uses according to
course I want Arabs to develop and own all real needs and in compliance with safety and
technologies and invest in science, literature security considerations. We should be aware,
and art. But what does buying nuclear reactors however, of falling victim to an artificial nuclear
mean, when Arab citizens still have to travel to race that only serves international salesmen.
hospitals in Europe and America for treatment
of the simplest injuries or diseases? This commentary has been re-written by the
Before we talk of nuclear reactors, what have author for ‘Perspectives middle east’, based on
we achieved in the field of scientific research, his monthly editorial published in september
whether in medicine, engineering, physics, 2010. Translated from arabic by doreen Khoury.
economics or sociology? The Arab region still
ranks amongst the lowest in the world in terms
of budget allocation to scientific research. A
stark manifestation of this is that while Arab
countries produce 60 per cent of desalinated
sea water in the world, they continue to import
desalination technology, equipment, spare
parts and in most cases foreign scientists,
managers, technicians and workers. So we
have to ask whether the construction of nuclear
reactors should be accorded a priority over
building a factory to produce membranes
for water desalination, let alone complete
10 Heinrich Böll Stiftung