The Century Ahead: Four Global Scenarios

357 Pages·2015·2.48 MB·English

The Century Ahead:
Four Global Scenarios
Technical Documentation

Christi Electris, Paul Raskin, Rich Rosen, and John Stutz
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The Century Ahead: Four Global Scenarios. Technical Documentation
Christi Electris, Paul Raskin, Rich Rosen, and John Stutz

Tellus Institute
11 Arlington Street
Boston, MA 02116
Phone: [phone]
Email: [email protected]
Tellus Institute: http://www.tellus.org
Great Transition Initiative: http://www.gtinitiative.org

© Copyright 2009 by Tellus Institute.
Updated 2015
No part of this report may be reproduced in any form by photostat, microfilm, or any other
means, without the written permission of the publisher.
The Century Ahead: Technical Documentation iii

Table of Contents

Table of Contents .............................................. iii

Table of Figures .............................................. viii

Table of Tables ................................................ xii

Table of Boxes ................................................. xv

Forward ......................................................... xvi

Acknowledgements ........................................ xvii

1 Introduction .............................................. 1

The Market Forces Scenario .......................................................................................... 2
The Policy Reform Scenario ........................................................................................... 2
The Fortress World Scenario .......................................................................................... 5
The Great Transition Scenario ....................................................................................... 5
Global Regions ................................................................................................................... 5
The Structure of this Report ............................................................................................... 8
2 Population, Economy, Poverty ............... 11

Demographics and Economics .......................................................................................... 11
Population ................................................................................................................... 11
Gross Domestic Product ............................................................................................... 14
Value Added by Sector ................................................................................................. 19
Value Added by Industrial Subsector ............................................................................ 22
Income Distribution and Poverty ...................................................................................... 26
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Methodology ................................................................................................................ 26
Inequality and Hunger ................................................................................................. 29
3 Energy ..................................................... 33

Energy Consumption ........................................................................................................ 33
Total Final Consumption.............................................................................................. 33
Households .................................................................................................................. 38
Services ........................................................................................................................ 49
Agriculture ................................................................................................................... 57
Industry ........................................................................................................................ 65
Transportation ............................................................................................................. 75
Energy Conversion ......................................................................................................... 108
Scenarios ................................................................................................................... 111
Primary Energy Production ....................................................................................... 119
Energy Resources ........................................................................................................... 124
4 Agriculture and Food ............................ 132

Demand for Agricultural Products .................................................................................. 134
Trade and Regional Food Supplies ................................................................................. 143
Animal Products......................................................................................................... 145
Crop Products ............................................................................................................ 146
Livestock Production and Feed....................................................................................... 150
Feed Requirements ..................................................................................................... 151
Feed Supply ............................................................................................................... 156
Fisheries and Aquaculture ............................................................................................... 165
Crop Production ............................................................................................................. 166
Irrigation ................................................................................................................... 170
Yield and Cropping Intensity ...................................................................................... 172
Cultivated Land.......................................................................................................... 178
Cropland Degradation ............................................................................................... 183
Fertilizer .................................................................................................................... 186
The Century Ahead: Technical Documentation v

5 Land Use and Forestry ......................... 192

Overview of Methodology .............................................................................................. 199
Protected Land ............................................................................................................... 203
The Built Environment ................................................................................................... 204
Conversion to Agricultural Land..................................................................................... 208
Cropland .................................................................................................................... 208
Grazing and Pasture Land ......................................................................................... 211
Forestry and Forests ....................................................................................................... 212
Forestry ..................................................................................................................... 212
Deforestation ............................................................................................................. 219
Barren and Other Land ................................................................................................... 221
Current Accounts ....................................................................................................... 221
Scenarios ................................................................................................................... 222
6 Water ..................................................... 224

Resources....................................................................................................................... 224
Withdrawals and Water Stress ........................................................................................ 226
Withdrawals by Sector ................................................................................................... 231
Domestic .................................................................................................................... 232
Manufacturing ........................................................................................................... 237
Energy Conversion ..................................................................................................... 243
Agriculture ................................................................................................................. 246
Water Stress ................................................................................................................... 252
7 Pollution ................................................ 254

Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change .......................................................................... 254
Methodology for Policy Reform Emissions Scenario ................................................ 256
Results ....................................................................................................................... 260
Computing Carbon Emissions in each sector ........................................................... 263
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Indoor Air Pollution and Biomass Fuels .......................................................................... 264
Acidification ................................................................................................................... 265
Water Pollution .............................................................................................................. 268
Domestic BOD Loadings ............................................................................................ 269
Livestock Production .................................................................................................. 272
Fertilizer .................................................................................................................... 273
Industrial BOD Loadings ........................................................................................... 274
Results ....................................................................................................................... 275
Solid Waste .................................................................................................................... 278
Current Accounts ....................................................................................................... 278
Scenarios ................................................................................................................... 280
Toxic Waste ................................................................................................................... 281
Current Accounts ....................................................................................................... 282
Scenarios ................................................................................................................... 284
8 A Great Transition Scenario ................. 286

Overview ....................................................................................................................... 286
The Asymptotic State ..................................................................................................... 287
Economics and Demographics ........................................................................................ 292
Income Assumptions ................................................................................................... 292
Technology Factors ........................................................................................................ 298
Energy ........................................................................................................................... 298
Water ............................................................................................................................. 299
Agriculture and Land ...................................................................................................... 300
9 A Fortress World Scenario .................... 304

Overview ....................................................................................................................... 304
Assumptions ................................................................................................................... 304
Economics and Demographics ................................................................................... 309
Energy and Water Use ............................................................................................... 312
Agriculture and Land ................................................................................................. 312
The Century Ahead: Technical Documentation vii

10 Quality of Development Indicator ...... 314

Methodology .................................................................................................................. 315
Worktime ....................................................................................................................... 317
Results ........................................................................................................................... 319
Annex .......................................................... 324

Annex 1. The Convergence Algorithm ....................................................................... 324
Annex 2. Sensitivity Analyses of Hunger Line Use ..................................................... 326
Changing U.S. Gini Coefficient Trends ...................................................................... 328
References .................................................. 329
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Table of Figures
Figure 2-1. UN mid-range population projections to 2100 .................................................... 12
Figure 2-2. GDP per capita in the scenarios .......................................................................... 17
Figure 2-3. Estimated PPP-to-MER ratio vs. income ............................................................ 18
Figure 2-4. Industrial value added as a percent of GDP ........................................................ 20
Figure 2-5. Value added shares by macro-region .................................................................. 21
Figure 2-6. Global Sector Shares of Value Added................................................................. 21
Figure 2-7. Hunger line versus GDP/cap............................................................................... 27
Figure 2-8. Gini Coefficients – Market Forces ...................................................................... 28
Figure 2-9. Gini Coefficients – Policy Reform....................................................................... 29
Figure 3-1. Global final energy consumption shares - 2005 ................................................... 34
Figure 3-2. Global final energy demand by macro-region ...................................................... 37
Figure 3-3. Household energy intensities – 2005 ................................................................... 39
Figure 3-4. Household energy shares – 2005 ........................................................................ 40
Figure 3-5. Global household energy demand by fuel ............................................................ 44
Figure 3-6. Global household energy demand by region ........................................................ 45
Figure 3-7. Regional household energy demand .................................................................... 47
Figure 3-8. Service sector energy intensities - 2005 .............................................................. 49
Figure 3-9. Service sector fuel shares - 2005 ........................................................................ 50
Figure 3-10. Global service sector energy demand by fuel ..................................................... 53
Figure 3-11. Global service sector energy demand by region ................................................. 54
Figure 3-12. Regional service sector energy demand ............................................................. 55
Figure 3-13. Agriculture sector fuel shares - 2005 ................................................................ 58
Figure 3-14. Agriculture sector energy intensities - 2005 (MJ/$) ........................................... 58
Figure 3-15. Global agricultural energy demand by fuel ........................................................ 61
Figure 3-16. Global agricultural energy demand by region .................................................... 62
Figure 3-17. Regional agricultural energy demand ................................................................ 63
Figure 3-18. Industrial sector energy use by sub-sector - 2005 .............................................. 65
Figure 3-19. Industrial sector energy use by fuel – 2005 ....................................................... 66
Figure 3-20. Industrial energy intensities - 2005 ................................................................... 67
Figure 3-21. Industrial energy intensities by sub-sector – 2005 ............................................. 68
Figure 3-22. Global industrial energy demand by region........................................................ 72
Figure 3-23. Global industrial fuel shares .............................................................................. 72
Figure 3-24. Regional industrial energy demand ................................................................... 73
Figure 3-25. Transport mode decomposition ........................................................................ 76
Figure 3-26. Total transport energy demand per capita by region - 2005 ............................... 77
The Century Ahead: Technical Documentation ix
Figure 3-27. Automobile travel per capita - 2005 .................................................................. 78
Figure 3-28. Passenger transport energy use: modal shares - 2005 ........................................ 81
Figure 3-29. Freight transport energy use: modal shares - 2005 ............................................ 81
Figure 3-30. Transport energy intensities by mode - 2005 ..................................................... 83
Figure 3-31. Global transport energy demand by fuel ............................................................ 85
Figure 3-32. Global transport energy demand by region ........................................................ 85
Figure 3-33. Regression analysis of average income versus per capita passenger transport (all
modes) .......................................................................................................................... 86
Figure 3-34. Average income vs. share of road transport in private vehicles .......................... 88
Figure 3-35. Average income and rail travel ......................................................................... 89
Figure 3-36. Average income and air transport ..................................................................... 89
Figure 3-37. Private vehicle shares of road transport ............................................................ 91
Figure 3-38. Global passenger transport requirements by macro-region ................................ 96
Figure 3-39. Global passenger transport requirements by mode ............................................ 97
Figure 3-40. Passenger transportation fuel use .....................................................................102
Figure 3-41. Road freight travel intensity versus income ......................................................103
Figure 3-42. Freight transportation fuel use .........................................................................108
Figure 3-43. Global electricity requirements for all sectors ...................................................111
Figure 3-44. Regional electricity generation shares 2005 and scenarios in 2050....................114
Figure 3-45. Average electric power plant efficiencies .........................................................118
Figure 3-46. Primary energy supply shares by region - 2005 ................................................120
Figure 3-47. Global primary energy requirements by macro-region (includes renewables) ....123
Figure 3-48. Global primary energy requirements by primary fuel ........................................123
Figure 3-49. Global fossil and uranium reserves compared to requirements ..........................126
Figure 3-50. Unrecovered reserves of fossil fuels – 2005 .....................................................128
Figure 3-51. Hydropower production by macro-region ........................................................130
Figure 3-52. Global Requirements for all biomass for fuel and feedstocks ............................131
Figure 4-1. Structure of agricultural production system .......................................................133
Figure 4-2. Commodity groupings used for the scenario analysis .........................................134
Figure 4-3. Regional daily per capita calorie intake ..............................................................138
Figure 4-4. Regional per capita calorie intake as a share of total consumption ......................138
Figure 4-5. Caloric intake vs. income in 2005 ......................................................................139
Figure 4-6. Dietary Changes in the Market Forces scenario .................................................142
Figure 4-7. Dietary Changes in the Policy Reform scenario ..................................................142
Figure 4-8. Difference in daily calorie intake between Policy Reform and Market Forces
scenarios in 2100 .........................................................................................................143
Figure 4-9. “Wheat and Coarse Grains” imports (negative) and exports (positive) ...............149
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Figure 4-10. All cereal imports (negative) and exports (positive), including “Wheat and Coarse
Grains” and “Rice” .......................................................................................................149
Figure 4-11. Feed requirements in scenarios ........................................................................155
Figure 4-12. Components of feed energy supply ..................................................................157
Figure 4-13. Changes in feed composition in the Market Forces scenario.............................163
Figure 4-14. Feed growth and composition in the Market Forces scenario ...........................164
Figure 4-15. Global livestock production in Market Forces and Policy Reform ....................164
Figure 4-16. Global ruminant animal production by region ...................................................165
Figure 4-17. Structure of crop production analysis ..............................................................169
Figure 4-18. Irrigated area by region, 1961 to 1999 .............................................................171
Figure 4-19. Historical annual cereal yields by Macro-Region ..............................................173
Figure 4-20. Additional historical annual cereal yields by region ..........................................174
Figure 4-21. Rainfed area index – developing regions, 1961-1994 .......................................179
Figure 4-22. Rainfed area index – OECD and transitional regions, 1961-1994 .....................179
Figure 4-23. Nitrogen fertilizer application vs. average yield for Wheat + CG ......................188
Figure 4-24. Nitrogen fertilizer application vs. average yield for Rice ..................................188
Figure 4-25. Nitrogen fertilizer application vs. average yield for Other Crops ......................189
Figure 5-1. Land use categories ...........................................................................................193
Figure 5-2. Average annual change in land area in the scenarios, 2005-2050 ........................198
Figure 5-3. Land use change schematic ................................................................................202
Figure 5-4. Global forestry fiber production in the scenarios by source ................................217
Figure 5-5. Global primary fiber inputs for secondary products in scenarios .........................217
Figure 5-6. Forest area available for production in each scenario .........................................218
Figure 6-1. Dependence of water stress on water use-to-resource ratio ................................229
Figure 6-2. Determining “level of effort” in the Policy Reform Scenario ..............................231
Figure 6-3. Domestic withdrawals vs. income ......................................................................233
Figure 6-4. Domestic water intensities in the Market Forces scenario ..................................234
Figure 6-5. Domestic withdrawals by region in the scenarios ...............................................235
Figure 6-6. Domestic water intensities in the Policy Reform scenario ...................................237
Figure 6-7. Relative values for manufacturing intensities ......................................................238
Figure 6-8. Manufacturing aggregate water intensities in Market Forces ..............................240
Figure 6-9. Regional manufacturing withdrawals in the scenarios .........................................242
Figure 6-10. Manufacturing water intensities in the Policy Reform scenario .........................242
Figure 6-11. Thermoelectric intensities in the Market Forces scenario .................................244
Figure 6-12. Water withdrawals for energy conversion in the scenarios................................245
Figure 6-13. Thermoelectric intensities in the Policy Reform scenario ..................................246
Figure 6-14. Yield response to water and non-water inputs..................................................248