The Caucasus Region: Economic and Political Developments

311 Pages·2011·3.02 MB·English

by  Bradley C. Ryan

CAUCASUS REGION POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SECURITY ISSUES

T C R : E
HE AUCASUS EGION CONOMIC
AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

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CAUCASUS REGION POLITICAL, ECONOMIC,
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CAUCASUS REGION POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SECURITY ISSUES

T C R : E
HE AUCASUS EGION CONOMIC
AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

BRADLEY C. RYAN
EDITOR

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New York
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THE CAUCASUS REGION : ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS / EDITOR, BRADLEY
C. RYAN.
P. CM.
INCLUDES INDEX.
ISBN: (cid:28)(cid:26)(cid:27)(cid:16)(cid:20)(cid:16)(cid:25)(cid:21)(cid:21)(cid:24)(cid:26)(cid:16)(cid:19)(cid:27)(cid:25)(cid:16)(cid:26) (eBook)
1. CAUCASUS--POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT--21ST CENTURY. 2. CAUCASUS--ECONOMIC
CONDITIONS--21ST CENTURY. I. RYAN, BRADLEY C.
DK509.C337 2010
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2010042626

 New York
CONTENTS

Preface vii
Chapter 1 National Security Concept of Georgia 1
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia
Chapter 2 Foreign Policy Strategy 2006-2009 23
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia
Chapter 3 Anatomical Pathology of Georgia‘s Rose Revolution 45
Vladimer Papava
Chapter 4 American Foreign Policy and Great Power Rivalry
in the Caspian Basin 59
Lasha Tchantouridze
Chapter 5 Presidential Elections in Armenia on February 19, 2008 69
Maria Amaryan
Chapter 6 Armenia: The Country of Three Presidents 81
David Petrosyan
Chapter 7 Evaluation of Election Result Falsification by Statistic
Analysis Methods 95
Ghoukas Mehrabyan
Chapter 8 Armenia on the Long Way to Democracy 105
Armen Grigoryan
Chapter 9 The History and the Present Condition of the Nagorno-Karabakh
Conflict 119
Stepan Grigoryan
Chapter 10 Newly Independent States: Between Mythopolitics and Reality 135
David Hovhannisyan
Chapter 11 Queen Ketevan and the Christian Culture 141
Marina Cincabadze
Chapter 12 Education Abroad, Civil Society and Nation-Building:
The Case of Azerbaijan 149
Michael Tkacik and Murad Ismayilov
vi Contents
Chapter 13 Russia-Georgia Conflict in South Ossetia: Context
and Implications for U.S. Interests 157
Jim Nichol
Chapter 14 To the 20th Anniversary of the Chernobyl Accident:
Medical Consequences in Armenia 183
N. M. Hovhannisyan, Sh. M. Petrosyan, M. I. Mirijanyan,
K. V. Asryan, A. S. Poghosyan, A. N. Hovhannesyan,
A. K. Abrahamyan, G. R. Harutyunyan, A. G. Karapetyan,
E. G. Gevorkyan, Zh. H. Petrosyan and N. K. Harutyunyan
Chapter 15 Caucasus and Georgian Economy: Past, Present, Prospects 193
Rozeta Asatiani
Chapter 16 Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia: Political Developments
and Implications for U.S. Interests 209
Jim Nichol
Chapter 17 Tajikistan: Recent Developments and U.S. Interests 247
Jim Nichol
Chapter 18 Stability in Russia‘s Chechnya and Other Regions of the North
Caucasus: Recent Developments 255
Jim Nichol
Chapter 19 Statement 269
Stepan Grigoryan
Index 271
PREFACE

This book focuses on the rapid changes occurring in the Caucasus Region, which has
been shown by recent events to be one of the world‘s newest and potentially most incendiary
hotspots. Topics discussed herein include the national security concept of Georgia;
presidential elections in Armenia; the history and present condition of the Nagorno-Karabakh
Conflict; Russia-Georgia Conflict in South Ossetia; the Caucasus and Georgian economy; and
the political developments in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.
Chapter 1 - Georgia is at an important stage in its centuries-old history. Georgia regained
its independence in 1991, after seven decades of occupation. Since then, it has undergone a
period characterized by internal conflicts supported from outside of Georgia, and by political
and economic instability. Nevertheless, the people of Georgia have made an unequivocal
decision to build a democratic and free state that ensures the rule of law, human rights,
security, prosperity of its citizens and a free market economy.
The Rose Revolution of November 2003 once again demonstrated that democracy and
liberty are part of the Georgian traditional values that are of vital necessity to the people of
Georgia. Georgia, as an integral part of the European political, economic and cultural area,
whose fundamental national values are rooted in European values and traditions, aspires to
achieve full-fledged integration into Europe's political, economic and security systems.
Georgia aspires to return to its European tradition and remain an integral part of Europe.
The National Security Concept of Georgia is the keystone document that presents a
vision of secure development of the state and of fundamental national values and interests. It
describes threats, risks and challenges to national security and sets major directions of
national security policy. The Concept underlines the aspiration of the people of Georgia to
achieve full-fledged integration into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the
European Union (EU), and to contribute to the security of the Black Sea region as a
constituent part of the Euro-Atlantic security system.
The Government of Georgia shall implement the National Security Concept through
relevant long-term measures that will safeguard fundamental national values and national
interests by adequately addressing security threats, risks and challenges to national security.
The National Security Concept shall serve as the basis for all strategies and plans. Along
with any revision of the Concept, relevant strategies and plans should be updated as well.
Chapter 2 - To fulfill the mission, the Ministry of Foreign Affaires of Georgia has
elaborated the Strategy for the years 2006 – 2009, which adheres to the requirements as
defined in the National Security Concept of Georgia.
viii Bradley C. Ryan
The Strategy is a conceptual framework, which ensures that the Foreign Service, as an
integral part of the Government, can perform its duties in accordance with the will of the
President and Parliament of Georgia.
The Strategy defines the objectives of the Foreign Service for the year 2006 – 2009, in
accordance with its mission, which seeks promotion of national interests, protection of the
rights of its citizens abroad and contribution to the world community.
The Strategy will help employees of the Ministry to see their duties as a valuable part of
the whole, and guide and organize their activities and actions along the lines of established
policy.
The Strategy encapsulates the medium term vision for the foreign policy priorities that
will guide the author‘s activities and actions in coming years. It defines four principal
strategic objectives of the Foreign Service. For each strategic objective of Georgia‘s foreign
policy, we identify a number of specific strategic priorities to be pursued by the Foreign
Service.
The Strategy also describes the country‘s multilateral and bilateral relations, which serve
the purpose of achieving strategic goals of the diplomatic service.
The Strategy will be the central managerial tool against which the performance of the
structures of the Foreign Service – the Ministry, diplomatic missions and consular services
abroad -- will be measured. It will ensure that strategic planning will govern performance
targets and overall resource requirements. On the completion of the planning cycle, the
achievements of the Foreign Service will be assessed based on the pre-defined targets set out
by this Strategy and corresponding performance plans.
Given the pace and dynamism of the processes developing in the modern world, the
Strategy will be periodically revised and amended, if necessary.
Chapter 3 - As is known, the collapse of the Soviet System and the beginning of the
transition to capitalism may be interpreted as a revolution (e.g. Bunce, 1999a, pp. 152-156).
―Color revolutions‖ of the post-Soviet space put on the agenda the problem of exploring the
nature of these revolutions, whether those really were revolutions and to what degree the
expectations of their supporters have come true. The first analytical papers devoted to these
problems have already appeared. However, it appears that more time is necessary to gain
experience and come up with generalized results of ―color revolutions.‖
The Rose Revolution of November 2003 was an outcome of the Georgian people‘s
striving for the development of a democratic society and improvement of it‘s human rights
record, reduction of corruption, enhancement of national economy and qualitative
improvement of the social conditions of life (e.g. Ascherson, 2004; Coppieters, and Legvold,
eds., 2005; Fairbanks, 2004; Karumidze, and Wertsch, eds., 2005; King, 2004; Miller; 2004;
Welt, 2004). It is no surprise that the ―Revolution‖ and its heroes, led by the present president
of Georgia, Mr. Mikhail Saakashvili, have been supported by the US administration, the
leadership of EU and its member states, the whole civilized world.
With the passage of two years after the ―Rose Revolution‖, the quite natural euphoria that
had followed it both inside and outside the country has gradually diminished and been
replaced by the state of ―sobering down‖ which leads to a rather realistic evaluation of the
results of post-revolution changes. It is important to note that such sobering down from
―revolutionary drunkenness‖ has been taking place in Georgia rather faster than oversees,
which is quite understandable: Georgian citizens have been experiencing all of the
―pleasures‖ of the revolution all on their own, whereas Georgia‘s international friends very