The Cambridge Economic History of the Modern World, Volume 2: 1870 to the Present

582 Pages·2021·6.044 MB·English

by  Stephen Broadberry, Kyoji Fukao

the cambridge economic history of
THE MODERN WORLD
The second volume of The Cambridge Economic History of the
Modern World explores the development of modern economic
growth from 1870 to the present. Leading experts in
economic history offer a series of regional studies from
around the world, as well as thematic analyses of key
factors governing the differential outcomes in different parts
of the global economy. Topics covered include human
capital, capital and technology, geography and institutions,
living standards and inequality, trade and immigration,
international finance, and warfare and empire.
STEPHEN BROADBERRY is Professor of Economic History at the
UniversityofOxfordandaFellowoftheBritishAcademy.Hehas
been Managing Editor of the Economic History Review and also the
EuropeanReviewofEconomicHistory,andPresidentoftheEconomic
HistorySocietyandtheEuropeanHistoricalEconomicsSociety.
KYOJIFUKAOisPresidentoftheInstituteofDevelopingEconomies,
Japan External Trade Organization (IDE-JETRO) and Specially
Appointed Professor at the Institute of Economic Research,
Hitotsubashi University. He has been President of the Asian
HistoricalEconomicsSocietyandhaspublishedwidelyonJapanese
andglobaleconomichistory.
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the cambridge economic history of
THE MODERN WORLD
The Cambridge Economic History of the Modern World offers an
unprecedented global account of the emergence of modern
economic growth and its spread across the world since 1700.
Each volume provides a series of regional studies from across
theglobe,aswellasthematicanalysesofkeyfactorsgoverning
differential outcomes in different parts of the global economy.
Written by leading experts in economic history and covering
topics such as demography and human development, capital
and technology,livingstandards and inequality,geography and
institutions, trade and migration, international finance, and
warfareandempire,thesevolumesofferthemostauthoritative
accounttodateofmoderneconomicgrowth.
VOLUMEI
1700to1870
editedbystephenbroadberryandkyojifukao
VOLUMEII
1870tothePresent
editedbystephenbroadberryandkyojifukao
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THE CAMBRIDGE
ECONOMIC HISTORY OF
THE MODERN WORLD
*
VOLUME II
1870
to the Present
*
Editedby
STEPHEN BROADBERRY
UniversityofOxford
KYOJI FUKAO
HitotsubashiUniversity,Tokyo
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DOI:10.1017/9781316671603
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Two-VolumeSetISBN 978-1-108-95377-1Hardback
VolumeIISBN 978-1-107-15945-7Hardback
VolumeIIISBN 978-1-107-15948-8Hardback
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Contents
ListofFigures pageviii
ListofTables xi
ListofContributorstoVolumeII xiv
IntroductiontoVolumeII 1
stephen broadberry and kyoji fukao
part i
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 19
1.NorthAmerica:TheRiseofUSTechnologicalandEconomic
Leadership 21
paul w. rhode
2.WesternEurope:ConvergenceandDivergence 48
paul sharp
3.TheSocialistExperimentandBeyond:TheEconomicDevelopment
ofEasternEurope 74
tracy dennison and alexander klein
4.Japan:ModernEconomicGrowthinAsia 100
kyoji fukao and tokihiko settsu
5.EconomicChangesinChina:TheRoleofInstitutionsandIdeology 129
debin ma
6.FromFreeTradetoRegulation:ThePoliticalEconomyofIndia’s
Development 151
bishnupriya gupta
v
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Contents
7.GrowthandGlobalizationPhasesinSouthEastAsianDevelopment 176
gregg huff
8.TheMiddleEast:DeclineandResurgenceinWestAsia 213
mohamed saleh
9.LatinAmerica:StalledCatchingUp 251
pablo astorga and alfonso herranz-lonca´n
10.AfricanEconomicDevelopment:Growth,Reversals,andDeep
Transitions 276
ewout frankema
11.Australia:Prosperity,RelativeDecline,andReorientation 306
gary b. magee
part ii
FACTORS GOVERNING DIFFERENTIAL
OUTCOMES IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 327
12.Healthy,Literate,andSmart:TheGlobalIncreaseinHumanCapital 329
latika chaudhary and peter lindert
13.ProximateSourcesofGrowth:CapitalandTechnology 356
rajabrata banerjee, robert inklaar, and
herman de jong
14.UnderlyingSourcesofGrowth:FirstandSecondNatureGeography 382
paul caruana-galizia, toshihiro okubo, and
nikolaus wolf
15.UnderlyingSourcesofGrowth:InstitutionsandtheState 418
james foreman-peck and leslie hannah
16.LivingStandards,Inequality,andHumanDevelopment 442
leandro prados de la escosura and myung soo cha
17.TradeandImmigration 471
david s. jacks and john p. tang
vi
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Contents
18.InternationalFinance 501
barry eichengreen and rui pedro esteves
19.WarandEmpire 526
jari eloranta and leigh gardner
Index 551
vii
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Figures
i.1 RegionalGDPpercapita:westernEuropeandformerUSSR page4
i.2 RegionalGDPpercapita:EastAsia 4
i.3 RegionalGDPpercapita:LatinAmericaandSouthAsia 5
i.4 RegionalGDPpercapita:MiddleEastandAfrica 5
i.5 RegionalGDPpercapita:AustraliaandIndonesia 6
1.1 Growthoftotalincome,percapitaincome,andpopulation,1790–2010 22
1.2 UScapitalformationrate,1834–2015 24
1.3 Nationalcapital–GNPratio,1774–1900 25
1.4 SectoralcompositionoftheUSlabourforceandincome 30
1.5 Employment(WE)andproductionshares(VA)ofthe‘Chandler’andIT
industries 35
1.6 Shareoftotalincomeaccruingtotop1percentofUSincomeearners,1913–2010 38
1.7 Farmpopulation,employment,andnumberofoperatingunits 39
1.8 GDPpercapita,1870–2010,US,UK,andwesternEurope 43
2.1 AnnualrateofgrowthofGDPpercapita,1870–2016,andGDPpercapitain1870 53
2.2 CoefficientofvariationofGDPpercapita,1870–2016 54
2.3 AnnualrateofgrowthofGDPpercapita,1870–1913,andGDPpercapitain1870 61
2.4 AnnualrateofgrowthofGDPpercapita,1921–39,andGDPpercapitain1921 63
2.5 AnnualrateofgrowthofGDPpercapita,1950–2016,andGDPpercapitain1950 65
2.6 AnnualrateofgrowthofGDPpercapita,1950–72,andGDPpercapitain1950 66
2.7 AnnualrateofgrowthofGDPpercapita,1973–2016,andGDPpercapitain1973 67
3.1 Incomeinequality,1970–89,grossmonthlyearnings 93
4.1 TrendsinpercapitaGDP:comparisonofJapan,US,UK,andtheAsian
Tigers,1874–2010 112
4.2 Japan’ssaving–investmentbalance,1885–1944and1946–2014 116
5.1 ChineseGDPpercapita,980–2010 133
6.1 Sharesofindustrialoutputinlargeandsmallindustriesat1948/49prices 161
6.2 TotalnumberofemigrantstodifferentpartsoftheBritishEmpire,1860–1912 162
7.1 SouthEastAsiapopulationdensity,1940 179
8.1 RealGDPpercapitaanditsgrowthrate,1870–2010 219
8.2 Democracyindex,1870–2010 225
8.3 SectoralcompositionofGDP,1960–2010 227
8.4 Population,births,deaths,andmigration,1870–2010 232
8.5 Labourforceparticipationrate 238
viii
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ListofFigures
8.6 Humancapital 241
8.7 Physicalcapitalandtechnology 246
9.1 CatchingupinGDPpercapita 255
9.2 CatchingupinGDPperworker 258
9.3 Catchingupinrealwages 260
10.1 GDPpercapitainAfrica,China,India,andIndonesia,1870–2020 277
10.2 TotalvalueofcommodityexportsfromBritishandFrenchWestAfrica,
1808–1940 280
10.3 Netbartertermsoftrade,WestAfrica,1808–1939 281
10.4 Indexseriesofpercapitamerchandiseexportsinsub-SaharanAfrica,
oilandnon-oilexportingcountries,1880–2010 285
10.5 AverageannualGDPpercapitagrowthinsub-SaharanAfrica,1950–2020 286
10.6 ColonialbordersofAfrica,c.1914 288
10.7 PercapitafoodproductioninAsia,LatinAmerica,andsub-SaharanAfrica,
1961–2011 293
10.8 Historicalandprojectedpopulationtrendsinsub-SaharanAfrica,Europe,
andAsia,1500–2100 296
11.1 PopulationandrealGDPpercapita,1870–2010 308
11.2 ComparativerealGDPpercapita 321
11.3 HumanDevelopmentIndex 323
12.1 Lifeexpectancy,selectcountries 331
12.2 Lifeexpectancyandincome 334
12.3 Lifeexpectancyandaverageyearsofschooling 337
12.4 Averageyearsofschooling,selectcountries 339
12.5 Ratioofaverageyearsofschooling,female/male 342
12.6 Testscoresandincome 348
13.1 TheskillpremiumintheUSlabourmarket,1870–2008 357
13.2 ElectrificationinUSmanufacturing,1890–1940 361
13.3 Economicdevelopmentandstructuraltransformation 366
13.4 GDPpercapitaandperhourworkedinwesternEurope,1940–80 372
14.1 Suitabilityforagriculture 385
14.2 Worldcrudeoilreserves 387
14.3 Globaldistributionofmalariarisk,2017 389
14.4 Globalurbanizationrate,1870–2010 393
14.5 Giniindicesofpopulation,output,andemployment,Japan,1920–1960s 398
14.6 MarketpotentialandGDPpercapita,Japan,1890–1940 399
14.7 GDPpercapitaacrossEuropeanregions,1900 403
14.8 GDPpercapitaacrossEuropeanregions,2015 404
14.9 Employmentsharesinagriculture,industry,andservices,1900–2015 405
14.10ShareofcapitalregionsinGDPofallEuropeanregions,1900–2015 406
14.11GiniindicesforpopulationandGDP,Europeanregions,1900–2015 407
15.1 Worldpopulationunderdemocraticandautocraticrule 433
15.2 IndicesofeconomiclibertyinOECDcountries,1870–2007 436
16.1 PercapitaGDPandrealwagegrowth 453
16.2 Top1percentshareintotalbeforetaxincomeinOECDandintheRest 455
16.3 IncomeinequalityinOECDcountries,1870–2015 458
ix
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ListofFigures
16.4 Globalandbetween-countriesincomeinequality,1870–2015 460
16.5 Incomeinequalityinworldregions,1870–2000 461
16.6 Inequalityextractionratioinworldregions 462
16.7 Worldhumandevelopment,1870–2015 464
16.8 WorldhumandevelopmentandGDPperheadgrowth,1870–2015 465
16.9 RelativehumandevelopmentintheRest,1870–2015 466
17.1 Immigrationflowsintosettlereconomies,1870–2010 474
17.2 Sharesofimmigrantflowsbydestinationcountry,1870–2010 476
17.3 Stockofforeign-bornintheUS,1870–2010 478
17.4 SharesofUSforeign-bornbyregionoforigin,1870–2010 479
17.5 Samplecountriesforimmigrantstocks,1960–2010 481
17.6 Immigrantstocksinadvancedeconomies,1960–2010 482
17.7 Sharesofimmigrantstocksinadvancedeconomiesbydestination,1960–2010 482
17.8 Sharesofimmigrantstocksinadvancedeconomiesbyorigin,1960–2010 483
17.9 Samplecountriesforworldexports,1870–2010 485
17.10Worldexports,1870–2010 486
17.11 Growthofworldexportsversusworldoutputbydecade,1870–2010 488
17.12Worldexportsharesbyregion,1870–2010 489
17.13 Regionalexportsharesbycountrieswithinregions,1870–2010 491
17.14Shareofmanufacturedgoodsinworldexports,1880–2010 492
18.1 Capitalflows,1870–2010 503
18.2 Dejurefinancialaccountopenness,1890–2004 507
18.3 Thetrilemmaindices,1890–2014 513
19.1 Exports,1800–1938 528
19.2 Yieldongovernmentbonds,1880–1914 529
19.3 DefenceexpendituresofUK,Germany,andFrance,1830–1913 532
19.4 TotalproportionaltonnageofFrance,Germany,UK,andUSA,1865–1950 533
19.5 Totalrealmilitaryspendingsharesofthedemocraciesversustheautocracies
intheseventeen-countrysystem,1920–38 535
19.6 Worlddefencespending,1816–2000 542
19.7 Defencespendingamongregions,1950–2017 543
19.8 Armedinternalconflicts,1870–2010 544
x
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