The Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in the New Middle East

320 Pages·2016·2.08 MB·English

by  Christopher Phillips

THE BATTLE FOR SYRIA
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CHRISTOPHER PHILLIPS
THE BATTLE
FOR SYRIA
INTERNATIONAL RIVALRY IN
THE NEW MIDDLE EAST
YALE UNIVERSITY PRESS
NEW HAVEN AND LONDON
iii
Copyright © 2016 Christopher Phillips
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Phillips, Christopher (Lecturer in international relations of the
Middle East), author.
Title: The battle for Syria : international rivalry in the new Middle East /
Christopher Phillips.
Description: New Haven : Yale University Press, 2016.
LCCN 2016022863 | ISBN 9780300217179 (hardback)
LCSH: Syria—History—Civil War, 2011- | World politics. | BISAC:
HISTORY / Modern / 21st Century. | HISTORY / Middle East / General. |
HISTORY / Military / General. | POLITICAL SCIENCE / International
Relations / General. | POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security /
Terrorism.
Classification: LCC DS98.6 .P5 2016 | DDC 956.9104/2—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016022863
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
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Contents
Acknowledgements vi
List of actors and abbreviations ix
Map of Syria xiv
Introduction 1
1 Syria and the Middle East on the eve of civil war 10
2 The Arab Spring comes to Syria 40
3 Assad must stand aside? The international community’s ambivalent
response 59
4 International institutions and the slide to war 83
5 A legitimate representative? Supporting and subverting Syria’s
political opposition 105
6 ‘Arm the rebels!’ Backing the armed opposition 125
7 To the hilt: Assad’s allies dig in 147
8 No red lines: the question of western military intervention 168
9 Descent into chaos: stalemate and the rise of ISIS 189
10 Enter Russia: Putin raises the stakes 213
Conclusion: The war that everyone lost 232
Notes 240
Bibliography 272
Index 289
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Acknowledgements
This book is the result of five years of research on the international rela-
tions of the Syrian civil war. It has taken me to fourteen different countries,
from ministries to refugee camps, where countless people have gone out of
their way to assist me. I am extremely grateful to all of those who have
helped and encouraged me along the way. I want to particularly thank those
who have asked not to be named. A work such as this is dependent on the
willingness of those with intimate knowledge of the conflict – whether
policy-m akers, government officials or those caught in the fighting – to
speak frankly and openly about their experiences and observations. To the
dozens who have shared their insights but understandably prefer to remain
anonymous, my sincerest thanks.
My deepest thanks also to everyone at Yale University Press for supporting
this work and making it a reality: to Heather McCallum for helping channel
my broad ideas into a workable volume; to Rachael Lonsdale for answering
my endless, no doubt tedious, queries; and to Melissa Bond and Beth
Humphries for their sharp editorial work.
The School of Politics and International Relations at Queen Mary,
University of London, has been my professional home throughout this
project, and I am most appreciative of the wide- ranging support it has offered.
Multiple research trips have been generously funded, as has a sabbatical. I am
grateful to all my colleagues for helping create such a friendly and stimulating
environment to work in, but particular thanks must go to Adam Fagan, a
hugely encouraging Head of School, and to Lee Jones, Bryan Mabee and
Eleanor Bindman, who kindly read over draft chapters and papers. My
second home during this time has been Chatham House, where I am an asso-
ciate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Programme and where I
helped found the Syria and its Neighbours Policy Initiative. This initiative
has allowed me access to many key policy- makers in the conflict, which
proved invaluable to this book. The Chatham House team and other asso-
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS vii
ciate fellows, past and present, have been incredibly supportive of my work,
including involving me in informative research trips and workshops. Special
thanks are due to Abdullah Ali, Sara Bazoobandi, Doris Carrion, Kristian
Coates Ullrichsen, Tim Eaton, Hassan Hassan, Jane Kinninmont, Neil
Quilliam, Claire Spencer and Helen Twist.
Away from London, I must thank the three institutions that kindly hosted
me while I conducted field research: the Georgetown Center for Contemporary
Arab studies in Washington, DC; the Orient Institut in Beirut; and the King
Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies in Riyadh. I am also extremely
grateful to the following, who, in many different ways, supported, helped and
facilitated my research: Dania Akkad, Malik al- Abdeh, the Arab Peace Center
for Research and Policy Studies in Doha, Gokhan Bacik, Julian Barnes- Dacey,
Abdul Hakim Bashar, Andrew Bowen, Lakhdar Brahimi, Alistair Burt, Glen
Carey, Martin Chulov, Simon Collis, Roland Dannreuther, Ramazan Daurov,
Toby Dodge, Chris Doyle, Fillipo Dionigi, Abigail Fielding- Smith, Robert
Ford, Alice Fordham, Jasmine Gani, the Genc family, Fawaz Gerges, Bryan
Gibson, Haid Haid, Ibrahim Hamidi, Raymond Hinnebusch, Steven
Heydemann, Fred Hof, Marwan Kabalan, Mehran Kamrava, Saban Kardas,
Brian Katulis, Rania Kiblawi, Caroline Kinj, Kemal Kirisci, Bassma Kodmani,
Andreas Krieg, Marc Lynch, Thomas McGee, Jihad Makdissi, Alexey
Maleshenko, Kevin Mazur, Else Melkonian, Vitaly Naumkin, Daniel Neep,
Ahmed al- Omran, Soli Ozel, Jeremy Shapiro, Steven Simon, Randa Slim,
Ken Sofer, Andrew Tabler, Gonul Tol, Ilhan Uzgel, Steven Walt, Becca Wasser,
Katherine Wilkins, Jon Wilks, Steven Wright, Paul Wood and Irina
Zvyagelskaya.
I must express special thanks to David Lesch, David Butter and the
anonymous reviewers who kindly looked over early drafts of the manu-
script, offering valuable recommendations and feedback. Finally, I must
thank my family, friends and loved ones, without whose support this book
could not have been written.
This book is dedicated to the people of Syria, on all sides of this vicious
and tragic conflict, who deserve better from the world.
Christopher Phillips
Queen Mary University of London, May 2016
viii
Key actors and abbreviations
The Assad regime and its allies
‘The regime’
Bashar al-Assad, Syrian President 2000–
Hafez al-Assad, Syrian President 1971–2000
Asma al-Assad (née Akhras), Syria’s First Lady 2000–
Maher al-Assad, brother of Bashar al-Assad, Commander of Republican
Guard and 4th Armoured Division
Anisa Makhlouf, mother of Bashar al-Assad
Assif Shawkat, brother-in-law of Bashar al-Assad, head of military intelli-
gence 2005–9, deputy minister of defence 2011–12
Rami Makhlouf, cousin of Bashar al-Assad, wealthy businessman
Manaf Tlass, Republican Guard General, defected 2012
Farouk al-Sharaa, First Vice President of Syria 2006–
Walid al-Muallem, Foreign Minister 2006–
Bouthaina Shabaan, political and media adviser to the Syrian President
2008–
Ba’ath – Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party, the ruling party of Syria since 1963
Mukhabarat – Set of notorious regime intelligence agencies
Shabiha – Gangs of irregular pro-regime thugs
NDF – National Defence Force, formed 2013
Russia
Vladimir Putin, Russian President 2000–8, 2012–, Russian Prime Minister
2008–12
Dmitri Medvedev, Russian President 2008–12, Russian Prime Minister
2012–
Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Minister 2004–
Mikhail Bogdanov, Deputy Foreign Minister 2011–
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