The Autocratic Middle Class: How State Dependency Reduces the Demand for Democracy PDF
Preview The Autocratic Middle Class: How State Dependency Reduces the Demand for Democracy
the autocratic middle class princeton studies in political behavior TaliMendelberg,SeriesEditor TheAutocraticMiddleClass:HowStateDependencyReducestheDemand forDemocracy,BrynRosenfeld AfterRepression:HowPolarizationDerailsDemocraticTransition, ElizabethR.Nugent TheLoudMinority:WhyProtestsMatterinAmericanDemocracy, DanielQ.Gillion SteadfastDemocrats:HowSocialForcesShapeBlackPoliticalBehavior, IsmailK.White&ChrylN.Laird TheCashCeiling:WhyOnlytheRichRunforOffice—andWhatWeCan DoaboutIt,NicholasCarnes DeepRoots:HowSlaveryStillShapesSouthernPolitics,AviditAcharya, MatthewBlackwell&MayaSen EnvyinPolitics,GwynethH.McClendon Communism’sShadow:HistoricalLegaciesandContemporaryPoliticalAttitudes, GrigorePop-Eleches&JoshuaA.Tucker DemocracyforRealists:WhyElectionsDoNotProduceResponsiveGovernment, ChristopherH.Achen&LarryM.Bartels ResolveinInternationalPolitics,JoshuaD.Kertzer The Autocratic Middle Class how state dependency reduces the demand for democracy bryn rosenfeld princeton university press princeton&oxford Copyright(cid:2)c 2021byPrincetonUniversityPress Requestsforpermissiontoreproducematerialfromthiswork [email protected] PublishedbyPrincetonUniversityPress 41WilliamStreet,Princeton,NewJersey08540 6OxfordStreet,Woodstock,OxfordshireOX201TR press.princeton.edu AllRightsReserved LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Names:Rosenfeld,Bryn,1981–author. Title:Theautocraticmiddleclass:howstatedependencyreducesthedemandfor democracy/BrynRosenfeld. Description:Princeton:PrincetonUniversityPress,[2021]|Series:Princeton studiesinpoliticalbehavior|Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. Identifiers:LCCN2020014695(print)|LCCN2020014696(ebook)| ISBN9780691192192(hardback)|ISBN9780691192185(paperback)| ISBN9780691209777(ebook) Subjects:LCSH:Civilservice—Politicalactivity—Formercommunist countries—Casestudies.|Middleclass—Politicalactivity—Formercommunist countries—Casestudies.|Authoritarianism—Formercommunistcountries.| Democracy—Formercommunistcountries.|Democratization—Former communistcountries.|Formercommunistcountries—Economicconditions.| Formercommunistcountries—Politicsandgovernment. Classification:LCCJN96.A69P642021(print)|LCCJN96.A69(ebook)| DDC306.20947–dc23 LCrecordavailableathttps://lccn.loc.gov/2020014695 LCebookrecordavailableathttps://lccn.loc.gov/2020014696 BritishLibraryCataloging-in-PublicationDataisavailable Editorial:BridgetFlannery-McCoyandAlenaChekhanov ProductionEditorial:KathleenCioffi CoverDesign:LaylaMacRory Production:ErinSuydam Publicity:KateHensleyandKathrynStevens Coverimage:RallyforRussianPresidentVladimirPutinattheLuzhnikiStadium, Moscow,March3,2018.MaximShemetov/REUTERS ThisbookhasbeencomposedinArno Printedonacid-freepaper.∞ PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 contents Acknowledgments vii 1 TheAutocraticMiddleClass 1 2 StateDependencyandMiddle-ClassDemand forDemocracy 37 3 ThePost-CommunistMiddleClasses,theState, andDemocratization 66 4 RethinkingtheMiddle-ClassProtestParadigm 100 5 ChoosingtoWorkfortheState 134 6 Revolution,DemocraticRetrenchment, andtheMiddleClass 155 7 AligningtheMiddleClasswithAutocracy:Rhetoric andPractice 193 8 Conclusion 222 AppendixI:RegressionResults 245 Bibliography 251 Index 269 Alinktotheonlineappendixcanbefoundathttps://press.princeton.edu/ books/paperback/9780691192185/the-autocratic-middle-class. v acknowledgments inthewritingof this book, I have incurred many debts. The project beganasadoctoraldissertationatPrincetonUniversity, whereIwasfortu- nate to have the guidance of several scholars whom I greatly admire. Mark Beissingeradvisedthisprojectfromitsearliestbeginnings.Heaskeddifficult questions,offeredpatientencouragement,andhasbeenaninvaluablesource ofguidanceandsupport.ChrisAchenwasalsoanexemplarymentor.Hiswit andwisdommadeourconversationsoneofthesingularpleasuresofgradu- atetrainingatPrinceton.IamalsodeeplyindebtedtoGrigoPop-Elechesfor hisinsightfulcommentsoneverydraft.Hisfeedbackpushedmetosharpen theproject’sempiricsandhelpedmetowrestlewithalternativearguments. AtPrinceton, IalsowishtothankCarlesBoix, RafaelaDancygier, Amaney Jamal,StevenKotkin,MarkusPrior,andRoryTruex. Nuffield College, where I was a postdoctoral fellow during the 2015– 2016academicyear,providedtheperfectsettingforrevisingthismanuscript. BenAnsellgavevaluableguidanceonframingandengagedgenerouslywith theproject’sarguments. MywonderfulwritinggroupinOxford—Ezequiel González-Ocantos,JodyLaPorte,LuisSchiumerini,JazmínSierra,andMaya Tudor—helped me negotiate the difficult transition from dissertation to book. Their friendship and thoughtful suggestions kept me on track. This project also benefitted greatly from conversations at Nuffield with Nancy Bermeo,RayDuch,GeoffEvans,OlgaOnuch,HenryThompson,andLau- renceWhitehead. At the University of Southern California, my colleagues generously engaged with this project in seminars and workshops, in conversations on campusandonthehikingtrail.GerryMunck,whoseownworkondemoc- ratizationhastaughtmesomuch,hasbeenawonderfulmentor.Hisdetailed feedbackatvariousjuncturesandmanyhelpfulinsightssignificantlystrength- enedthemanuscript. BenGrahamhasbeenaterrificfriendandincredibly generous colleague. He supported this project through careful comments, vii viii acknowledgments transcription of my book workshop, and encouragement when I needed it most.IcouldnotaskforbetterjuniorfacultyfriendsthanErinBaggottCarter, Brett Carter, Andrew Coe, Morris Levy, James Lo, and Jon Markowitz. I also thank Jeb Barnes, Dennis Chong, Ann Crigler, Pat James, Jane Junn, SaoriKatada,StanRosen,andJeffSellersfortheirconstructiveengagement andadvicealongtheway.Individualchaptersofthemanuscriptweregreatly improvedbyfeedbackfromparticipantsintheCISWorkingPaperSeries,and especiallyfromcommentsbyEvgeniiaIakhnis,XinruMa,andKellyZvbogo. Iamalsoextremelygratefulforaterrificdiscussionofthemanuscriptat thebookworkshopheldatUSC’sCenterforInternationalStudiesinthewin- terof2016.IthankespeciallymyexternaldiscussantsStephenHaggardand CynthiaKaplanfortheircommentsoneachandeverychapterandforpro- vidingvaluableadviceontheproject’soverallframing.Ioweaspecialdebtof gratitudetoDaveKangforsupportingtheworkshopasdirectoroftheCen- terforInternationalStudies,tothemanyfacultyandgraduatestudentswho participated,andtothewonderfulCISstaffwhohelpedtoorganizeit,Cort BrinkerhoffandMadelineBrown. Before completing this manuscript in the fall of 2019, I joined the fac- ulty at Cornell University and relocated with my family to Ithaca. I wish to thank my wonderful colleagues in the Department of Government and especially Begüm Adalet, David Bateman, Val Bunce, Ali Cirone, Gustavo Flores-Macías, JillFrank, SabrinaKarim, TomPepinsky, RachelRiedl, Ken Roberts,SidTarrow,JeremyWallace,NicvandeWalle,andJessicaWeissfor adviceandencouragementasImadefinalrevisions. Previousversionsofseveralchapterswerepresentedatannualmeetings oftheAmericanPoliticalScienceAssociationandMidwestPoliticalScience Association.IwasfortunatetobenefitfromtheinsightfulcommentsofScott Gehlbach, Henry Hale, Tom Remington, and Rory Truex, my discussants atthoseconferences.IalsowishtothankseminarparticipantsatColumbia, Essex,GeorgeWashington,theHigherSchoolofEconomicsinMoscow,the LondonSchoolofEconomics,NYU,Oxford,Princeton,UCLA,theUniver- sityofSouthernCalifornia,Vanderbilt,andWashingtonUniversitySt.Louis forexcellentfeedback. Forhelpfuldiscussionandcommentsalongtheway,IalsothankGraeme Blair, Noah Buckley, Volha Charnysh, Michael Donnelly, Sarah El-Kazaz, Jordan Gans-Morse, Yanilda Gonzalez, Aram Hur, Adam Krawitz, Tomila Lankina,NoamLupu,IsraelMarquez,GwynethMcClendon,MichaelMiller, acknowledgments ix JohnReuter,JoanRicart-Huguet,GraemeRobertson,ArturasRozenas,Rudy Sil,DavidSzakonyi,TariqThachil,JoshTucker,CarlosVelascoRivera,and SethWessler. TimFryekindlyreaddraftsofseveralofthisbook’schapters andofferedvaluableadviceatvariousstagesoftheproject. My field research would not have been possible without the support of manydifferentpeopleandinstitutions.InRussia,Idiscussedideasfromthis project with Anna Andreenkova, Elena Avraamova, Vladimir Gimpelson, YevgenyGontmakher,AlexeyGrazhdankin,LevGudkov,SvetlanaMareeva, LiliaOvcharova,OvseyShkaratan,IrinaSoboleva,NataliaTikhonova,Mark Urnov, and Denis Volkov. The project, in turn, has benefitted from their valuableinsightsandsuggestions.TheHigherSchoolofEconomicswasater- rificplacetopursuemyresearch. MarkUrnovopenedhispersonalarchive to me and was particularly generous with his contacts in Russian politics and academia. His support and good humor greatly enriched my time in Moscow.IamalsogratefultotheLevadaCenterandtheFoundationforPub- licOpinion(FOM)forgenerouslysharingtheirdata.Ithasbeenapleasureto collaboratewiththeLevadaCenterandtheInstituteforComparativeSocial Research(CESSI)foranumberofyears. In Ukraine, I wish to thank Anatoly Arseenko, Elena Besedina, Liud- milaCherenko,OleksandrDemianchuk,EvgenyGolovakha,OlekseyHaran, OlgaKupets, OlgaKutsenko, MikhailoMishchenko, DenysNizalov, Olena Nizalova,SvetlanaOksamitna,VladimirPaniotto,TatianaPetrushina,Liud- milaShanghina,ElenaSimonchuk,andGannaVakhitovaforhelpfuldiscus- sions.VladimirSayenkoandhismotherLydiawerewonderfulhosts,andmy timeinKievwasimprovedimmeasurablybytheirhospitality.Beingmetby afamiliarfacewhenIgotoffthetrainandthesingularpleasureofseeinga friendIhadn’tseeninyearsaddedtothejoyoffieldwork.Iamgratefulalso tohavesharedmanycupsofteaandconversationswithSasha,withwhomI livedinKiev.IalsooweadebtofgratitudetotheInstituteofSociologyofthe NationalAcademyofSciencesofUkraineandtoVictorStepanenkoforfacili- tatingmyresearchinKyiv.TheInstituteofSociology,theRazumkovCentre, andtheInstitutefortheStudyofLabor(IZA)verygenerouslyallowedmeto usetheirdataforthisproject. InKazakhstan,SaraAlpysbaeva,AlimaBissenova,SholpanEsimova,Gul- miraIleuova, LyailaIvatova, ElenaMaltseva, DauletMynzhasarov, Bakhyt- nurOtarbaeva,BotagozRakisheva,NurbekSayasat,CaressSchenk,Nazym Shedenova, Alexei Trochev, Aigul Zabirova, Ernar Zharkeshov, and Aiman x acknowledgments Zhusupova made important contributions to this research. I also wish to thank the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the RepublicofKazakhstaninNur-Sultan(formerlyAstana)forwelcomingmeas avisitingresearcherandmycolleaguesattheAcademyfortheircamaraderie overmanycafeterialunchesandcupsoftea.ProfessorLyailaIvatovaopened her home to me and was an incredibly gracious host. I am grateful for her company, conversation, andwarmmantyastemperaturesinAstanadipped andthewindwhippedinwintermonths. The research for this book was made possible by the generous financial supportofseveralinstitutions.Igratefullyacknowledgefundingformyfield researchfromtheU.S.DepartmentofEducation’sFulbright-Haysprogram, thePrincetonInstituteforInternationalandRegionalStudies,andtheMam- douhaS.BobstCenterforPeaceandJustice.DaveKangprovidedthefunding foraworkshoponthismanuscriptatUSC’sCenterforInternationalStudies. At Princeton University Press, I wish to thank Eric Crahan for his early interestinmymanuscriptandBridgetFlannery-McCoyforseeingitthrough topublication.IamalsogratefultoAlenaChekanovandKathleenCioffifor theirhelpalongtheway, andtoWendyWashburnformeticulouslyediting every page. Tali Mendelberg, the series editor, and three anonymous read- ersofferedexcellentfeedback, alongwithpraisefortheprojectthathelped motivatemetofinishit. My husband, Ian Kysel, has shared this project’s evolution and much more since we met at Swarthmore College. He read every draft and talked througheverychapter—onbikesalongtheHudson, onthetowpathalong theThames,onthehikingtrailsinGriffithPark,andclimbingthegorgesin Ithaca.Hisloveandpatiencemadethewritingpossible.Littlestbutnotleast, Ezrajoinedourfamilybetweenroundsofrevisions.Iwasatmydeskworking onchapter3whenIwentintolabor.Thisprojecthasgrownupwithhim. Finally,myparents,RaymondRosenfeldandJanelleMcCammon,metas doctoralstudentsinpoliticalscienceatEmoryin1970.WhenItookmyfirst tenure-trackjob,myfathersentmefiftyyearsoftheAmericanPoliticalScience Reviewtomakemyofficefeelmorelikehome.Theirmanygiftsinspiremeas aparentandscholar.Thisbookisdedicatedtothem.
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