The Asia-Pacific Century: Challenges and Opportunities

286 Pages·2013·3.226 MB·English

by  Adam B. Lowther

Political Science L The Asia-Pacific
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Century
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When Secretary of State Hillary Clinton published “America’s T
Challenges and Opportunities
Pacific Century” in Foreign Policy magazine in November 2011,
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the administration was clearly indicating to domestic and
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international audiences that the United States is beginning

a pivot toward the Asia-Pacific. Clinton’s article served as a A
spark for renewed interest in the nation’s Asia-Pacific strategy
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and American interests in the region. i
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The Asia-Pacific Century: Challenges and Opportunities
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looks to the future of the Asia-Pacific and examines a broad
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range of questions that focus on diplomatic, economic, and
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military challenges facing the region’s key players, with a
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particular focus on their relevance to the US military. f
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Dr. Adam B. Lowther is a research professor at the Air C
Force Research Institute. He specializes in defense policy
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and strategic airpower.
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The Asia-Pacific
Century
Challenges and Opportunities
Edited by Adam B. Lowther
Boca Raton London New York
K22145_FM.indd 1 7/23/13 12:09 PM
Taylor & Francis
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Contents
Foreword vii
About the Authors ix
1 Why Asia Matters 1
Dr. John P. Geis II
Introduction 1
The “Asian Tigers,” Pandas, and Elephants 2
Getting International Trade “Strait” 6
A Place Where It Is Natural to Have Problems 8
A Military Race . . . but to Where? 14
2 Thinking about the Asia-Pacific 25
Dr. Adam Lowther
Introduction 25
The Delphi Method and Analysis 25
Focus Group Analysis 31
Conclusion 43
3 Top Five Asia-Pacific Economies: Integration, Conflict,
Vulnerability, and Crisis, 2010–2020 45
Dr. Brooks B. Robinson
Abstract 45
Introduction 45
Bottom Line Up Front 46
Economic Integration 47
Economic Integration and Military Conflict 50
Economic Integration in a Game-Theoretic Framework 51
Economic Vulnerability 53
Impact of an Asian Crisis on the Global Economy 56
Conclusion 58
4 Chinese Soft Economic Warfare 63
Dr. Chad Dacus
Introduction 63
Peace and Prosperity 64
Soft Economic Warfare 69
The US Response 75
iii
CONTENTS
5 Steaming up the Hudson: China, the United States,
and the Problem of Misperception 81
Prof. Simon Reich
Introduction 81
Why Do Americans Fear China’s Growth
into a Great Power? 82
Is This Sense of Alarm Justified? 85
What Are the Consequences of the Current Trend
in US-Chinese Relations? 90
6 The Contradictions of US China Policy:
Implications for the US Air Force 93
Justin Logan
Abstract 93
Introduction 93
US Policy toward China 95
The Problems with US Policy 97
Changes for US China Policy 101
Potential Objections to the Alternative Strategy 103
Conclusion 110
7 Shadow Dancing in the Indian and Pacific Oceans:
China, India, and America 115
Dr. Dhirendra K. Vajpeyi
Introduction 115
The Theatre Stage: The Indian Ocean 116
The South China Sea (Nanyang)
and China’s Southeast Asia Neighbours 118
The Pacific Ocean 125
The Players (the Actors) 126
Conclusion 146
8 US Role in the Asia-Pacific Region: A Regional View 153
Dr. Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan
Introduction 153
Regional Perceptions of the US Role
in the Asia-Pacific 154
As China Rises, Will Its Neighbours
Bandwagon or Balance? 166
Conclusion 168
iv
CONTENTS
9 The Security Environment in the Asia-Pacific:
An Australian Viewpoint 171
Dr. Sanu Kainikara
Introduction 171
Australia’s Strategic Interests 173
Factors Affecting Australia’s Strategic Outlook 176
The Role of the United States in the Asia-Pacific Region 177
The Status of South Pacific Nations 178
The Shift in Global Economic Activity
to the Asia-Pacific 179
An Australian Perspective on Its Security 184
Conclusion 187
10 Conflict and Diplomacy in the South China Sea 189
Dr. Sheldon W. Simon
Abstract 189
Introduction 189
Conflict and Diplomacy: Alternative Approaches
to the South China Sea 192
Multilateral Diplomacy 193
The United States, the Code of Conduct,
and South China Sea Diplomacy 195
The United States and the Philippines:
A Special South China Sea Relationship 199
Other Significant External Actors: Japan and India 201
Implications for the United States 204
11 Nuclear-Strategic Asia 211
Dr. Stephen J. Cimbala
Introduction 211
Policy Problems and Issues 211
States and Forces 217
Conclusion 224
12 Aspects of Korean Unification: Planning for US
Involvement on the Korean Peninsula 229
Dr. Kimberly Gill and Dr. Thomas P. Dolan
Introduction 229
Background of Korean Separation 229
Scenarios for Korean Unification 230
Cost Estimates of Korean Unification 233
Why Germany Is the Wrong Model
for Korean Unification 246
Conclusion 248
v
CONTENTS
13 Building Positive Relationships in the Asia-Pacific 253
Dr. Adam Lowther
Introduction 253
Why the Asia-Pacific Matters 253
China 256
Airpower in the Asia-Pacific 257
Conclusion 263
Abbreviations 267
vi
Foreword
In 2002 Pres. George W. Bush proclaimed that the twenty-first
century would be the “Asia-Pacific Century.” While I am not sure he
was the first person to use that phrase—and it has been often used by
others over the past 10 years—for those of us who study the region
and/or have more than a casual familiarity with the region, the proc-
lamation rings true. In a November 2011 article in Foreign Policy
magazine, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton went so far as to say,
“The future of politics will be decided in Asia, not Afghanistan or
Iraq, and the United States will be right at the center of the action.”
These are powerful words, underscoring the fact that Asia matters,
and it matters a great deal.
For those who are interested in national security affairs, the ques-
tion is not whether Asia matters but what our country should do
about the fact that Asia matters. How should we posture ourselves to
best advance our national interests in a region that will have so much
to do with our future security and prosperity?
Certainly, there will be much study and many well-considered
judgments concerning these important questions, and most of this
work will contribute to advancing our collective ability to successfully
confront the scores of challenges that lie ahead. In this regard, I was
pleased to learn that the Air Force Research Institute was undertaking
a year-long study of the Air Force strategy in the Asia-Pacific region.
While it is clear that all instruments of national power will play
critical roles in our national strategy for the region, the military in-
strument will underpin all of our efforts in the region. The US Air
Force will play an especially key role, with its ability to rapidly span
the vast distances in the Pacific while engaging our allies, partners,
and friends in the region through forward presence and exercises.
By addressing issues from economic integration to a potential
nuclear arms race and key regional actors (China, North Korea, India),
this book provides a broad perspective on the topics that will shape
the future of US involvement in the region. I was especially interested
in the chapter on building partnerships because my experience tells
me we will need to increasingly leverage the capabilities of other na-
tions if we are to achieve our objectives in an affordable manner.
The Asia-Pacific region is neither generally at war nor completely
at peace. This is a region that holds the promise of multilateral coop-
eration that can lead to greater economic prosperity, as well as the
vii
FOREWORD
ability to deal constructively with many of the most significant secu-
rity challenges of our time. These include the areas of nuclear prolif-
eration, international criminal activity, terrorism, environmental
degradation, pandemic diseases, natural disasters, and more. This is a
region whose future is not preordained but that will be shaped by the
actions of the Pacific nations themselves, and the United States will
continue to be a leading member of this group of nations. This is also
a region where both hard and soft power will be required to maintain
stability and achieve progress.
During the three years I lived in Japan, it struck me that the people
who felt most viscerally positive about the relationship between our
countries were those who were children during the post–World War 2
period. The lesson they could have taken from that time was one
associated with the trauma resulting from the utter devastation our
country had brought to theirs. Instead, the lesson many of them took
away was one of gratitude for the vast effort we made to help them
stand back up after the national tragedy that befell them. Much of
that immense effort was undertaken by the US military forces sta-
tioned there after the war. This combination of hard power during the
war and soft power after the war demonstrates the versatility of the
military instrument of our national policy, a flexibility that will con-
tinue to be required in the years and decades to come.
This book does an admirable job of addressing both the hard
power and soft power challenges we will face in the region. I am con-
fident readers will find this to be a worthy addition to their literature
collection on the Asia-Pacific.
EDWARD A. RICE, JR.
General, USAF
Commander
Air Education and Training Command
viii