THE ART OF JUDGMENT fl fl fl Advances m i l l in Public III II Administration Sponsored by the Public Administration Theory Network and Lewis and Clark College Advances in Public Administration is a series of books designed both to encourage and to contribute to the vital processes of rethinking public administration and reconceptualizing various aspects of the field in an insightful manner that goes well beyond traditional approaches. Coordinating Editor Henry D. Kass, Lewis and Clark College Associate Editors Guy B. Adams, University of Missouri, Columbia Camilla Stivers, Evergreen State College Editorial Board Mary Bailey, University of Cincinnati Bayard L. Catron, George Washington University Terry L. Cooper, University of Southern California Barry R. Hammond, Slippery Rock University Royce Hanson, University of Texas, Dallas David Kirkwood Hart, Brigham Young University April Hejka-Ekins, California State University, Stanislaus Ralph P. Hummel, University of Oklahoma Jong S. Jun, California State University, Hayward Lawrence Kirkhart, Kirkhart and Kirkhart Associates Nicholas Lovrich, Washington State University Frank Marini, University of Akron Douglas F. Morgan, Lewis and Clark College Richard Stillman, III, University of Colorado, Denver Larry D. Terry, Cleveland State University Curtis Ventriss, University of Vermont Gary L. Wamsley, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Dvora Yanow, California State University, Hayward SIR GEOFFREY VICKERS Centenary Edition THE ART OF JUDGMENT A Study of Pol icy Making iÎP m Advances in Public Administration Sponsored by the Public Administration Theory Network and supported by Lewis and Clark College /g\ SAGE Publications (VI International Educational and Professional Publisher Thousand Oaks London New Delhi Copyright © 1995 by Sage Publications, Inc. First Published 1965 by Chapman & Hall This edition published 1995 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval systems, without permission in writing from the publisher. For information address: SAGE Publications, Inc. 2455 Teller Road Thousand Oaks, California 91320 E-mail: [email protected] SAGE Publications Ltd. 6 Bonhill Street London EC2A 4PU United Kingdom SAGE Publications India Pvt. Ltd. M-32 Market Greater Kailash I New Delhi 110 048 India Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Vickers, Geoffrey, Sir, 1894-1982 The art of judgment: A study of policy making / Sir Geoffrey Vickers.—Centenary ed. p. cm.—(Advances in public administration) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-8039-7362-4 (cloth: alk. paper).—ISBN 0-8039-7363-2 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Decision-making. 2. Public administration. 3. Executives. I. Title. II. Series. HD 38.2.V53 1995 350.007'25—dc20 95-17018 This book is printed on acid-free paper. 95 96 97 98 99 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Sage Production Editor: Diana Axelsen Sage Typesetter: Danielle Dillahunt Contents Series Editor’s Introduction ix Henry D. Kass Foreword to the Centenary Edition of The Art of Judgment xiii Guy B. Adams, Bayard L Catron, and Scott D. N. Cook Exercise in the Creation of Form: The Life of Sir Geoffrey Vickers 1 Margaret Blunden Foreword to the 1983 Edition 21 Kenneth E. Boulding Poem 23 Preface to the Original Edition 25 Introduction to the Original Edition 27 PART I: POLICY MAKING AS A MENTAL SKILL 1. The Regulation of Institutions 39 2. Appreciation 50 3. Three Case Studies in Appreciation 64 4. The Appreciative System 82 5. Prediction 91 6. Innovation 103 7. Valuation 115 8. The Limits of the Regulable 125 PART II: POLICY MAKING AS AN INSTITUTIONAL PROCESS 9. Institutions as Dynamic Systems 135 10. Political Choice and Market Choice 143 11. Growth 157 12. Accountability 168 13. Internal Criteria of Success 180 PART III: POLICY MAKING IN THE CONTEXT OF THE DECISION SITUATION 14. The Decision Situation 197 15. Decision as Learning 206 17. The Budgetary Decision 220 18. Allocative and Integrative Decisions 233 19. The Decision Under Protest 243 PART IV: POLICY MAKING WITHIN THE HUMAN-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM 20. The Human-Ecological System 253 References 263 Books and Articles by Sir Geoffrey Vickers 267 Index 271 About the Editors 283 Series Editor’s Introduction THE RATIONALE for this series lies in the ongoing need to reexamine and enrich thinking in the field of public admin istration. It can be argued that few fields need efforts of this sort more urgently. Twenty years ago, Vincent Ostrom declared that an “intellectual crisis” existed in public administration. Significantly, that crisis has continued unabated into the 1990s. Meanwhile, the public's faith in the administrative state has declined precipi tously, and, in the words of Herbert Kaufman, bureaucrat bashing has become “pandemic.” Intellectually, this crisis lies in the discrepancy between the field's 19th-century roots and the postmodern realities we must face at the turn of the 20th century. Despite 20 years of intellectual foment by academics, most practitioners still adhere to a model of public administration shaped in a world that no longer exists. The Progressive era that gave birth to modern American public admini stration was an age that believed in universal technical/rational solutions to political, social, and even moral problems. It was a time in which strong Western nation-states and their empires were commonly viewed as the anointed agents of progress and civilization. Most of all, it was a period in which government was beginning to be seen as part of the answer, rather than part of the problem. Virtually none of these views holds in the contemporary world, yet public administration and its literature have been indelibly marked by these roots. As a result, it remains grounded in the classic model of the centralized nation-state at a time when a global economy is a reality, Western empires disintegrate, and a new feudalism based upon warring ethnic and racial communities seems emergent. Its literature still takes a largely technical/rational view of the world, though the practice of public administration increasingly requires decidedly nontechnical ethical and political decisions. Even more troubling, although a thorough réévaluation of first principles and assumptions is in order, the literature, like the field itself, too often retreats into bureaucratic defensiveness or formulaic “solutions” to problems. It can be argued, then, that public administration badly needs new literature that reexamines its basic premises. There is little question that the materials for this reexamination are present. Certainly they exist in disciplines such as history, philosophy, the humanities, and the social sciences. They range backward and forward in time. Some present a vision of existence in a disordered, fragmented, but exciting postmodern world. Some reach backward to apply traditional philosophic thought to current issues. Others suggest radically new ways to view human thought and action. Still others depict an environmentally centered world in which people are no longer masters but stewards of the world in which they live. Because public administration often is referred to as an inter disciplinary study, it seems reasonable to expect it to break out of its traditional paradigm and use this body of knowledge to advan tage. Two factors seem to prevent this, however. First, to the degree public administration has drawn on other disciplines, it has cho sen to rely upon those that fit most easily into its universalistic and rational tradition. Thus, modern economics, analytic philosophy,