The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis: Reasoning about Uncertainty PDF
Preview The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis: Reasoning about Uncertainty
Logic, Argumentation & Reasoning 10 Sven Ove Hansson Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn Editors The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis Reasoning about Uncertainty Logic, Argumentation & Reasoning Interdisciplinary Perspectives from the Humanities and Social Sciences Volume 10 Series editor Shahid Rahman Logic, Argumentation & Reasoning explores the links between Humanities and the Social Sciences, with theories including, decision and action theory as well ascognitivesciences,economy,sociology,law,logic,andphilosophyofsciences. It’stwomainambitionsaretodevelopatheoreticalframeworkthatwillencourage and enable interaction between disciplines as well as to federate the Humanities andSocialSciencesaroundtheirmaincontributionstopubliclife:usinginformed debate,luciddecision-makingandactionbasedonreflection. The series welcomes research from the analytic and continental traditions, puttingemphasisonfourmainfocusareas: • Argumentationmodelsandstudies • Communication,languageandtechniquesofargumentation • Receptionofarguments,persuasionandtheimpactofpower • Diachronictransformationsofargumentativepractices TheSeriesisdevelopedinpartnershipwiththeMaisonEurope´ennedesSciences del’HommeetdelaSocie´te´ (MESHS)atNord-PasdeCalaisandtheUMR-STL: 8163(CNRS). Proposalsshouldinclude: • Ashortsynopsisoftheworkortheintroductionchapter • TheproposedTableofContents • TheCVoftheleadauthor(s) • Ifavailable:onesamplechapter We aim to make a first decision within 1 month of submission. In case of a positivefirst decisionthe workwillbeprovisionally contracted:the finaldecision aboutpublicationwilldependupontheresultoftheanonymouspeerreviewofthe complete manuscript. We aim to have the complete work peer-reviewed within 3monthsofsubmission. The series discourages the submission of manuscripts that contain reprints of previouspublishedmaterialand/ormanuscriptsthatarebelow150pages/85,000 words. Forinquiriesandsubmissionofproposalsauthorscancontacttheeditor-in-chief Shahid Rahman via: [email protected] or managing editor, Laurent [email protected]. More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11547 Sven Ove Hansson • Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn Editors The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis Reasoning about Uncertainty Editors SvenOveHansson GertrudeHirschHadorn DepartmentofPhilosophyandHistory DepartmentofEnvironmentalSystemsScience RoyalInstituteofTechnology SwissFederalInstituteofTechnology Stockholm,Sweden Zurich,Switzerland ISSN2214-9120 ISSN2214-9139 (electronic) Logic,Argumentation&Reasoning ISBN978-3-319-30547-9 ISBN978-3-319-30549-3 (eBook) DOI10.1007/978-3-319-30549-3 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2016936269 ©SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2016 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionor informationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexempt fromtherelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Thepublisher,theauthorsandtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthisbook arebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernortheauthorsorthe editorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinorforanyerrors oromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade. Printedonacid-freepaper ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbySpringerNature TheregisteredcompanyisSpringerInternationalPublishingAGSwitzerland Preface ThehistoryofthisbookgoesbacktoadiscussionthatwehadinDecember2012on recent developments in decision analysis. There is a long tradition of criticizing overreliance on the standard models of decision theory, in particular expected utility maximization. What we found to be new, however, is a more constructive trendinwhichnewtoolsareprovidedfordecisionanalysis,toolsthatcanbeusedto systematizeandclarifydecisionsevenwhentheydonotfitintothestandardformat ofdecisiontheory.Discussionswithcolleaguesconfirmedthatwewereonthetrack of something important. A new approach is emerging in decision research. It is highlypluralisticbutitalsohasacommontheme,namelytheanalysisofarguments forandagainstdecisionoptions.Wedecidedthatabookwouldbethebestwayto sumupthecurrentstatusofthisargumentativeturnindecisionanalysis,andatthe sametimeprovidesomeimpetusforitsfurtherdevelopment. The book consists of an introduction, a series of chapters outlining different methodological approaches, and a series of case studies showing the relevance of argumentative approaches to decision analysis. The brief Preview provides the reader with an overview of the chapters, and an Appendix recapitulates some of thecoreconceptsthatareusedinthebook. We would like to thank all the contributors for excellent co-operation and not leastfortheirmanycommentsoneachother’schaptersthathavecontributedmuch to the cohesion of the book. All the chapters were thoroughly discussed on a workshop in Zu¨rich in February 2015 that has been followed by many e-mail exchanges. We would also like to thank Marie-Christin Weber for invaluable editorialhelpandthepublisherandtheserieseditors,ShahidRahmanandLaurent Keiff,fortheirsupportandtheirbeliefinourproject. Stockholm,Sweden SvenOveHansson Zurich,Switzerland GertrudeHirschHadorn September24,2015 v Contents PartI Introductory 1 Preview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 SvenOveHanssonandGertrudeHirschHadorn 2 IntroducingtheArgumentativeTurninPolicyAnalysis. . . . . . . . . 11 SvenOveHanssonandGertrudeHirschHadorn PartII Methods 3 AnalysingPracticalArgumentation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 GeorgBrunandGregorBetz 4 EvaluatingtheUncertainties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 SvenOveHansson 5 ValueUncertainty. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 NiklasM€oller 6 AccountingforPossibilitiesinDecisionMaking. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 GregorBetz 7 SettingandRevisingGoals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 KarinEdvardssonBj€ornberg 8 Framing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 TillGru¨ne-Yanoff 9 TemporalStrategiesforDecision-making. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 GertrudeHirschHadorn PartIII CaseStudies 10 ReasoningAboutUncertaintyinFloodRiskGovernance. . . . . . . . 245 NeelkeDoorn vii viii Contents 11 FinancialMarkets:ApplyingArgumentAnalysis totheStabilisationTask. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265 MichaelSchefczyk 12 UncertaintyAnalysis,NuclearWaste,andMillion-Year Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291 KristinShrader-Frechette 13 ClimateGeoengineering. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305 KevinC.Elliott 14 SyntheticBiology:SeekingforOrientationintheAbsence ofValidProspectiveKnowledgeandofCommonValues. . . . . . . . 325 ArminGrunwald Appendix TenCoreConceptsfortheArgumentativeTurn inPolicyAnalysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347 SvenOveHanssonandGertrudeHirschHadorn Contributors Gregor Betz is professor in philosophy of science at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe. In his publications, he develops argumentation-theoretic modelsofcomplexdebates,reconstructsmoral,political,philosophicalandscien- tificcontroversies,defendstheidealofvalue-freescience,simulatessocialopinion dynamics,vindicatestheveritisticmeritofpluralityandcritique,andassessesthe predictive limits of climate science and economics. He is also contributing to the Argunet project (http://www.argunet.org), which seeks to promote a culture of reasoning. His books include: Prediction or Prophecy? The Boundaries of Eco- nomic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences (DUV 2006), Theorie dialektischer Strukturen (Klostermann 2010), Debate Dynamics: How ControversyImprovesOurBeliefs(Springer2012). GeorgBrunisaresearchfellowattheInstituteofPhilosophyattheUniversityof Berne. Before that he was a research fellow at the Institute for Environmental DecisionsatETHZurich,contributingtointerdisciplinaryprojectsontheanalysis of policy arguments and decisions. His areas of research include epistemology, argumentation theory, philosophy and history of logic, metaethics and aesthetics. Book publications: Die richtige Formel. Philosophische Probleme der logischen Formalisierung [The Right Formula: Problems of Logical Formalization] (Ontos 2004),TextanalyseindenWissenschaften.InhalteundArgumenteanalysierenund verstehen [Text Analysis in the Sciences: Analysing and Understanding Content and Arguments] (as co-author, vdf 2014) and Epistemology and Emotions (as - co-editor,Ashgate2008). Neelke Doorn holds a master degree in civil engineering (MSc, cum laude) and philosophy(MA,cumlaude)andaPh.D.degreeinphilosophyofengineeringand technology, with additional training in water and nature conservation law (LLB, cumlaude).ShewroteherPh.D.thesisonmoralresponsibilityinR&Dnetworks. Dr. Doorn is currently an assistant professor at the School of Technology, Policy and Management of the Technical University Delft, Department of Values, ix
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