The Arctic in World Affairs

470 Pages·2016·9.15 MB·English

by  Oran R. Young

Oran R. Young is a professor emeritus at the Bren YOUNG The Arctic in World Affairs: A North Pacific Dialogue on the
School of Environmental Science & Management at the KIM Arctic in the Wider World addresses six major themes: the U.S.
Arctic Council chairmanship program; policy implications
University of California, Santa Barbara. Young served
and
of climate change for the nations with Arctic interests;
for six years as founding chair of the Committee on
KIM implementation of the polar code; the impacts of shifting world
the Human Dimensions of Global Change of the US
energy markets on Arctic resource development; stewardship
National Academy of Sciences. As an expert on Arctic
of the Arctic Ocean, and healthy communities in the Arctic.
issues, Young serves as a PI on the Pan-Arctic Options
2015 Bringing together the contributions of experts from the three
project, a research initiative involving scientists in five
North Pacific Arctic coastal states (Canada, Russia, and the
countries funded through the Belmont Forum. Past service North Pacific Arctic Conference Proceedings
United States) and three leading North Pacific non-Arctic states
in this realm includes chair of the Steering Committee of
(China, Japan, and Korea), the book goes beyond generalities
the Arctic Governance Project, co-chair of the Working AT to identify and evaluate the effectiveness of innovative measures
Group on Arctic International Relations, vice-president The Korea Maritime Institute (KMI) is a government-affiliated research N that will contribute to maintaining the Arctic as a zone of peace
of the International Arctic Science Committee, chair of oh and promoting sustainable development in the region.
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of the Arctic Region, and co-chair of the 2004 Arctic c continuing progress. It introduces key thematic areas: healthy
and fisheries policies including shipping and logistics, port development, coastal and if
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uc
the people and nations of the United States, Asia, and the Pacific through cooperative e impacts on the livelihoods of northern peoples, some recent
Jong Deog Kim is a research fellow of the Korea study, research, and dialogue. Established by the U.S. Congress in 1960, the Center on i developments in the science of climate change, and the policy
serves as a resource for information and analysis on critical issues of common thn implications for the nations with Arctic interests.
Min atrhitei mRee Ipnusbtiltiuct eo, fa Kgoovreeran. mHeen ts-earffvielisa taeds tohreg adniirzeactitoonr concern, bringing people together to exchange views, build expertise, and develop e A W On implementation of the polar code, the book discusses
policy options. r (i) issues of compliance and enforcement, (ii) complications
gAerncteirca pl oolfic tyh ree ssetararctheg pyr oregsreaamrc mh adniavgiseiro, nin calnudd inasg tthhee ctic ino Edited by rqeuleasttiinogn st ope trhtaei neinffgo rtot tcoo odpeevrealtoiopn uannidf ocromor dstinaantdioanr dasm, o(iniig)
NInostritthu tPe.a Hcifei ch Aasr cletidc aCnodn pfearretnicciep ainte dth ien Kseovreeraa lM naartiiotinmael therl Oran R. Young satnadte (si va) nadn novoenr-asltla atses eascstmoresn tr erespgaorndsiinbgl et hfeo re fifmecptilveemneesnst aotfi othne,
Wd
projects on coastal and ocean policy including Arctic Jong Deog Kim code.
cooperation in his research career. Kim has a Ph.D. in ider A Yoon Hyung Kim On the impacts of shifting world energy markets on Arctic
Oceanic Architecture and Engineering from Nihon W resource development, the book focuses on (i) dramatic changes
University, an M.A. and a B.A from Seoul National of in international oil and gas markets, (ii) Russian-Chinese energy
University. rldf relations, (iii) the implications of lifting sanctions on Iran, and
a
(iv) Russia’s perception of Arctic energy projects.
Yoon Hyung Kim is a professor emeritus of ir On stewardship of the Arctic Ocean, the book examines
s (i) control of pollution in and into the Arctic, (ii) protection
economics at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies
of ecologically or culturally significant areas, and (iii) future
and a senior fellow at the East-West Center. He also
directions for international cooperation in protecting the Arctic
serves as a vice chairman of the Korea Forum for
marine environment
Progress. He served as an independent director of the
On healthy communities in the Arctic, the book considers
Korea Gas Corporation, S-Oil, and the Korea Resource major issues facing Arctic communities, explores the nature
Management Corporation. He is a former director of adaptations to change occurring in these communities,
general of the Planning Bureau of the Ministry of Energy discusses areas where outsiders may be able to make useful
and Resources and a former senior fellow at the Korea contributions to the quality of life in Arctic communities, and
Development Institute. On Arctic marine issues, he identifies success stories that may be relevant to those facing
presently chairs the Organizing Committee of the North similar challenges in other parts of the world.
Pacific Arctic Conferences at the East-West Center. Kim The book seeks to fill gaps in knowledge regarding the
has a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University, 93300 Arctic, identifying remaining uncertainties and developing
an M.S. in statistics from Stanford University, and a policy innovations that can promote peaceful and sustainable
B.A. in economics from the University of Wisconsin at uses of Arctic resources in the future.
KMI
Madison. 9 788979 989984
ISBN 978-89-7998-998-4 Press
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The Arctic in World Affairs
A North Pacific Dialogue on the Arctic in the Wider World
2015 North Pacific Arctic Conference Proceedings
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KMI/EWC SERIES ON THE ARCTIC IN WORLD AFFAIRS
The Korea Maritime Institute (KMI) is a government-affiliated research organization
under the umbrella of the National Research Council for Economics, Humanities
and Social Science (NRC) in the Republic of Korea. Since its establishment in 1984,
KMI has been a major think-tank in the development of national maritime and
fisheries policies including shipping and logistics, port development, coastal and
ocean management, maritime safety and security, and fisheries affairs. Currently,
KMI is building research capacity on the new ocean industries, the so-called
Blue Economy, for sustainable coastal and ocean resources development. KMI’s
international research network covers not only the Asian region but also other
regions such as Africa, the Pacific islands, the Americas, Europe, and the polar
areas.
The East-West Center promotes better relations and understanding among the
people and nations of the United States, Asia, and the Pacific through cooperative
study, research, and dialogue. Established by the U.S. Congress in 1960, the Center
serves as a resource for information and analysis on critical issues of common
concern, bringing people together to exchange views, build expertise, and develop
policy options. The Center’s 21-acre Honolulu campus, adjacent to the University
of Hawai’i at Ma–noa, is located midway between Asia and the U.S. mainland and
features research, residential, and international conference facilities. The Center’s
Washington, D.C., office focuses on preparing the United States for an era of
growing Asia Pacific prominence.
The KMI/EWC series The Arctic in World Affairs publishes work from the North
Pacific Arctic Conference, which aims to provide a forum in which key individuals
from relevant countries and major stakeholder groups are able to develop relations
of trust that allow them to discuss complex and sometimes difficult issues pertaining
to the maritime Arctic in a spirit of problem solving rather than advocacy.
The first volume in the series, A North Pacific Dialogue on Arctic
Transformation, based on the 2011 North Pacific Artic Conference, was edited by
Robert W. Corell, James Seong-Cheol Kang, and Yoon Hyung Kim.
The second volume, A North Pacific Dialogue on Arctic Marine Issues, from the
2012 conference, was edited by Oran R. Young, Jong Deog Kim, and Yoon Hyung
Kim.
The third volume, A North Pacific Dialogue on the Future of the Arctic, from the
2013 conference, was edited by Oran R. Young, Jong Deog Kim, and Yoon Hyung
Kim.
The forth, A North Pacific Dialogue on International Cooperation in a Changing
Arctic, from the 2014 conference, was edited by Oran R. Young, Jong Deog Kim,
and Yoon Hyung Kim.
The volume, A North Pacific Dialogue on the Arctic in the Wider World, from
the 2015 conference, was edited by Oran R. Young, Jong Deog Kim, and Yoon
Hyung Kim.
ii
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The Arctic in World Affairs
A North Pacific Dialogue on the Arctic in the Wider World
2015 North Pacific Arctic Conference Proceedings
Edited by
Oran R. Young
Jong Deog Kim
Yoon Hyung Kim
KMI/EWC SERIES ON THE ARCTIC IN WORLD AFFFAIRS
A JOINT PUBLICATION OF THE KOREA MARITIME INSTITUTE
AND THE EAST-WEST CENTER
iii
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Ⓒ Korea Maritime Institute and East-West Center 2015
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photocopying,
recording, or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher.
Published by
Korea Maritime Institute
26, Haeyang-ro 301beon-gil, Yeongdo-gu,
Busan, 606-080 Republic of Korea
www.kmi.re.kr
East-West Center
1601 East-West Road
Honolulu, Hawaii 96848-1601, USA
www.eastwestcenter.org
Published in December 2015
ISBN 978-89-7998-998-4 93300
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Contents

List of Figures viii
Isist of Tables x
Contributors xi
Preface xiv
1. The Artic in the Wider World: Introduction and Overview 3
Yoon Hyung Kim, Oran R. Young, and Jong Deog Kim
PART I T HE ARCTIC AGENDA
2. The U. S. Arctic Council Chairmanship Workplan 39
Julia L. Gourley on behalf of the U.S. Department of State
Commentaries
Hugi Ólafsson 48
Sung Jin Kim 59
Jiang Ye 66
Oran R. Young 75
Akiko Okamatsu 86
PART II C LIMATE CHANGE: POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR
THE NATIONS WITH ARCTIC INTERESTS
3. Climate Change: Mitigating Arctic Impacts and Adapting to 93
Changed Conditions
Thomas R. Armstrong
Introduction 93
Major Arctic Climate Impacts and Mitigating Actions 96
Governance issues: Taking Knowledge to Strategic Decisions 105
Principles for Taking Information to Action 106
Final Thoughts 109
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Commentaries
Robert W. Corell 110
Raymond V. Arnaudo 128
Joan Nymand Larsen 133
Alexander Klepikov, Alexander Danilov, and Genrikh Alekseev 148
Sung Jin Kim 160
PART III I MPLEMENTION OF THE POLAR CODE
Perspectives
Lawson W. Brigham 175
Hiroyuki Yamada 185
Gillian S. Grant 190
Bum-Shik Park 205
Andrei Zagorski 215
Akiko Okamatsu 234
PART IV T HE IMPACTS OF SHIFTING WORLD
ENERGY MARKETS ON ARCTIC RESOURCE
DEVELOPMENT
4. The Impacts of Shifting World Energy Markets on Arctic 249
Resource Development
David L. Pumphrey
Introduction 249
Changing nature of Global Oil and Gas Markets 251
Arctic Oil and Gas Development 262
Challenges Facing Arctic Oil and Gas Development 265
Current oil and Natural Gas Activities in the Arctic 269
Geopolitical Challenges in Arctic Oil and Gas Development 272
Conclusions 274
Commentaries
Arild Moe 279
Andrei Zagorski 292
James A. Slutz 305
Keun-Wook Paik 317
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PART V A RCTIC STEWARDSHIP: PROTECTING
THE ARCTIC OCEAN
5. Arctic Stewardship: Protecting the Arctic Ocean 329
Suzanne Lalonde
International Agreements/arrangements 330
Regional Agreements/arrangements 337
Commentary 343
Conclusion 354
Commentaries
David L. VanderZwaag 371
Hugi Ólafsson 383
Elizabeth (Lisa) Speer 390
PART VI H EALTHY COMMUNITIES IN THE ARCTIC:
IDENTIFYING SUCCESS STORIES AND
IMPROVING LIVING CONDITIONS
6. Identifying Success Stories and Improving Living Conditions 397
in the Arctic
J. Okalik Eegeesiak
Inuit Priorities 397
Important Characteristics of the Changes Occurring in Arctic
Communities in Recent Decades? 400
How Communities have Responded and Some “Success Stories” 403
Public Policies and Institutional Arrangements that could Improve
the Ability of Arctic Communities to Deal with Change 404
Opportunities for Outsiders, Associated with Both Non-arctic States
and Non-state Actors, to Support the Efforts of Arctic Communities
to Deal with Change 407
Closing Messages 410
Commentaries
Kenneth (Ken) S. Coates and Carin Holroyd 414
Denise Michels 427
Ellen Inga Turi 438
Jong Deog Kim 445
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List of Figures
Figure I.1 Average Monthly Arctic Sea Ice Extent: September, 1979–2014 52
Figure II.1 Global Sea Level Rise 97
Figure II.2 Summer Arctic Sea Ice Extent: July–September, 1870–2008 98
Figure II.3 Acidification of the Arctic Oceans and Seas 102
Figure II.4 The Science-Decision Cycle 108
Figure II.5 Global Consequences 112
Figure II.6 Temperature Changes Relative to Preindustrial 113
Figure II.7 Sea Ice has Shrunk Far Faster than IPCC Projections 114
Figure II.8 Probability of Presence of Undiscovered Arctic Oil and/or Gas
Fields 115
Figure II.9 NASA Jet Stream Analysis 116
Figure II.10 Consequences of the Changes in the Polar Vortex 117
Figure II.11 GFS Two-Meter Temperature Anomaly, 1981–2010 117
Figure II.12 Marine Species and Oceanic Food Chain Impacted by Ocean
Acidification 118
Figure II.13 High Levels of Methane Dissolved in Surface Water 119
Figure II.14 State of the Climate 120
Figure II.15 The Science-Decision Cycle 126
Figure II.16 The Taymyr Sea Ice Massif blocked the Northern Sea Route
near the Strait of Vilkitsky even in September 2007 152
Figure III.1 The Water Area of the Northern Sea Route 221
Figure III.2 The Polar Code Area of Application in the Arctic 222
Figure III.3 Ice Extent in the Arctic Ocean, Summer 2015 226
Figure III.4 Ice Conditions Along NSR, June–October 2015 226
Figure IV.1 US Natural Gas Production, 1990–2040 252
Figure IV.2 US Crude Oil and Other Liquids Production, 1970–2040 253
Figure IV.3 International Shale Oil and Gas 254
Figure IV.4 Estimated Global Technically Recoverable Oil Resources 259
Figure IV.5 Estimated Global Technically Recoverable Natural Gas
Resources 261
Figure IV.6 Discovered Oil and Gas Fields in the Arctic 263
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Figure IV.7 Estimated Technically Recoverable Hydrocarbon Resources
in the Arctic 264
Figure IV.8 Minimum 2014 and Maximum 2015 Ice Cover 266
Figure IV.9 Illustrative 2011 Costs of Gas, Oil, and Coal Transportation 269
Figure IV.10 Relationship Between Oil Price and Spudded Exploration
Wells on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, 2000–14 281
Figure IV.11 Historical and Expected Volumes of Gas Sales from
Norwegian Fields, 1985–2025 282
Figure IV.12 Natural Gas Prices in Nominal USD per mbtu, 1985–2014 284
Figure IV.13 Global Arctic Conventional Endowment 309
Figure IV.14 Global Arctic Conventional Oil and Gas Resource
Endowment by Country 309
Figure IV.15 Arctic Environments and Oil and Gas Development
Technology 310
Figure IV.16 Well Control, Containment, and Spill Clean-up Technologies 312
Figure IV.17 Drilling Season Length 314
Figure IV.18 Lease Length 315
Figure IV.19 Russia’s Gas Pipelines 319
Figure IV.20 Yamal LNG Project 322
Figure IV.21 LNG Transportation Routes from the Yamal Peninsula 323
Figure VI.1 Countries with which Korea has Free Trade Agreements, 2015 446
Figure VI.2 Countries with which Korea has Shipping Agreements, 2015 447
ix
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