The Arc of War: Origins, Escalation, and Transformation

297 Pages·2011·1.09 MB·English

by  Jack S. Levy

The Arc of War

The Arc of War
Origins, Escalation, and Transformation
jack s. levy and
william r. thompson
the university of chicago press chicago and london
jack s. levy is the Board of Governors’ Professor of Political Science at Rutgers University
and former president of the International Studies Association (2007–8).
william r. thompson is Distinguished Professor and the Donald A. Rogers Professor of
Political Science at Indiana University and former president of the International Studies
Association (2005–6).
The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637
The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London
© 2011 by The University of Chicago
All rights reserved. Published 2011.
Printed in the United States of America
20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 1 2 3 4 5
isbn-13: 978-0-226-47628-5 (cloth)
isbn-13: 978-0-226-47629-2 (paper)
isbn-10: 0-226-47628-6 (cloth)
isbn-10: 0-226-47629-4 (paper)
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Levy, Jack S., 1948–
The arc of war : origins, escalation, and transformation / Jack S. Levy and
William R. Thompson.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
isbn-13: 978-0-226-47628-5 (cloth : alk. paper)
isbn-10: 0-226-47628-6 (cloth : alk. paper)
isbn-13: 978-0-226-47629-2 (pbk. : alk. paper)
isbn-10: 0-226-47629-4 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. War and civilization. 2. War—History.
3. War—Sociological aspects. 4. Social evolution. I. Thompson, William R. II. Title.
cb481.l48 2011
909—dc23
2011020001
a The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the American
National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library
Materials, ansi z39.48-1992.
to kim, partner in friendship, love, and life—jsl
and
to karen, despite all the celery crunching
and the tachophobia on the slopes—wrt

Contents
List of Tables and Figures ix
Acknowledgments xiii
chapter 1. The Evolution of War 1
chapter 2. The Origins of War 19
chapter 3. Evolutionary and Coevolutionary Processes 54
chapter 4. The First Two Agrarian Warfare Accelerations 87
chapter 5. The Third Evolutionary Acceleration 126
chapter 6. The Coevolution of the Western Military Trajectory 155
chapter 7. Nonwestern Military Trajectories 186
chapter 8. The Coevolution of War, Past and Future 207
Notes 219
References 243
Index 273

Tables and Figures
figures
Figure 1.1 Our argument / 2
Figure 1.2 Estimated battle deaths by century since 3000 BCE / 7
Figure 1.3 Frequency of great power war by decade, 1490–2010 / 8
Figure 1.4 Severity of great power war by quarter century / 8
Figure 1.5 Frequency of types of war, 1820s–2000s / 9
Figure 2.1 The origins of war / 52
Figure 3.1 The coevolution of war, threat environment, military
organization, weaponry, political organization, and political
economy / 56
Figure 3.2 Coevolutionary process / 63
Figure 3.3 Organizational/weaponry complexity and the costs of war
between industrialized states / 71
Figure 3.4 The evolution of war / 76
Figure 8.1 Another look at the coevolutionary complex / 213
tables
Table 1.1 Selected major battle attributes / 6
Table 2.1 Cioffi-Revilla’s evidence for early warfare / 21
Table 2.2 Ferguson’s evidence for early warfare / 22
Table 2.3 Segmentation and warfare among foraging groups / 32
Table 2.4 Marriage payments and warfare among foraging groups / 33
Table 2.5 Carneiro’s single versus multiple village chiefdoms
distinctions / 35