the arc of crisis in the mena region

195 Pages·2017·1.44 MB·English

Karim Mezran The Arc of Crisis in the MENA Region volume deals with T THE ARC OF CRISIS
H
Resident senior fellow at the the countries of the Middle East and North Africa that E
Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle A
are facing a particularly troubled period in their historical R IN THE MENA REGION Founded in 1934, ISPI is
East at the Atlantic Council in C
Washington, DC. development. Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt and to a lesser O an independent think tank
extent Jordan and Tunisia have plunged into a legitimacy F committed to the study of
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Arturo Varvelli crisis that in some cases has turned into civil war or violent R Fragmentation, Decentralization, international political and
upheaval. As traditional authorities lose their legitimacy, two IS economic dynamics.
Senior research fellow and IS It is the only Italian Institute
co-head of the Middle East and alternatives are emerging. The first is a more decentralized IN and Islamist Opposition – and one of the very few in
North Africa Center at the Italian system of government, evinced by the empowerment of T Europe – to combine research
Institute for International Political subnational government bodies and the growing legitimacy HE activities with a significant
Studies (ISPI) in Milan, Italy. of local authorities; in this trend, the local authorities are M edited by Karim Mezran, Arturo Varvelli commitment to training, events,
able to keep the state united and more functional. The E and global risk analysis for
N
second is a growing number of political groups that act A preface by Frederick Kempe, Giampiero Massolo companies and institutions.
R ISPI favours an interdisciplinary
as opposition to authoritarianism, which is experiencing E
G and policy-oriented approach
a revival. The analysis herein also focuses on Islamist I
O made possible by a research
movements; namely, their organizational and ideological N
team of over 50 analysts and
development as well as how the shrinking of the political an international network of 70
space affects them and the entire polity. This Report universities, think tanks, and
explores the distinctive dynamics and characteristics of research centres. In the ranking
issued by the University of
these challenges in the post-Arab Spring era.
Pennsylvania, ISPI placed first
worldwide as the “Think Tank to
Watch in 2018”.
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The Arc of Crisis
in the MENA Region

Fragmentation, Decentralization,
and Islamist Opposition
edited by Karim Mezran and Arturo Varvelli
© 2018 Ledizioni LediPublishing
Via Alamanni, 11 – 20141 Milano – Italy
www.ledizioni.it
[email protected]
The Arc of Crisis in the MENA Region. Fragmentation,
Decentralization, and Islamist Opposition
Edited by Karim Mezran and Arturo Varvelli
First edition: September 2018
The opinions expressed herein are strictly personal and do not necessarily reflect
the position of ISPI.
This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council
Policy on Intellectual Independence. The author is solely responsible for its analy-
sis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine,
nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions.
To cite this report: Karim Mezran and Arturo Varvelli (eds.), The
Arc of Crisis in the MENA Region, ISPI and Atlantic Council, 2018,
https://www.ispionline.it/
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/
Print ISBN 9788867058570
ePub ISBN 9788867058563
Pdf ISBN 9788867058587
DOI 10.14672/67058570
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The Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
studies political and economic dynamics in the Middle East and
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Table of Contents
A Renewed Arc of Crisis in the MENA Region................... 7
Preface by Frederick Kempe, Giampiero Massolo
Part I - IntroductIon
Framework.......................................................................... 15
Karim Mezran, Arturo Varvelli
Part II - current trends: a case for decentralIzatIon?
1. From Fragmentation to Decentralization:
An Overview..................................................................... 23
Ranj Alaaldin, Karim Mezran
2. Decentralization in Tunisia: Its Utility
37
and Competing Visions for Implementation...................
Fadil Aliriza
3. Decentralization: The Last Resort for Libya?................... 49
Karim Mezran, Erin A. Neale
4. Decentralization in the Syrian Context........................... 61
Faysal Itani, Emily Burchfield
5. Iraq: From Fragmentation to (De)Centralization?........... 75
Andrea Plebani
Part III - PolItIcal oPPosItIon
In the arab World
6. Islamist-Inspired Groups After the Arab Spring............... 89
Arturo Varvelli, Silvia Carenzi
7. Mainstream Institutionalization vs
Disenfranchised Radicalization in Tunisia........................... 109
Stefano M. Torelli
8. What Happened to Political Islam in Libya?..................... 123
Mary Fitzgerald
9. Egyptian Islamists in the Labyrinth.................................. 135
Ashraf El Sherif
10. Political Islam in Jordan:
A Plurality of Visions..................................................... 153
Paolo Maggiolini
Part IV - energy
11. The Implications of Natural Gas Potential
173
in the MENA Region.....................................................
Simone Tagliapietra
Acknowledgments................................................................185
About the Authors...............................................................187
A Renewed Arc of Crisis
in the MENA Region
The “arc of crisis” concept was formulated in 1978 by Jimmy
Carter’s National Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, after
various events had shaken the Middle East and North Africa
region (MENA). The idea behind this theorization was that an
arc of instability was emerging, stretching from the Indian sub-
continent to the Atlantic Coast of North Africa. Forty years
after such an idea was first conceptualized, the Middle East re-
mains the least stable region on earth. Failing states, wars, jihadi
terrorism, migration flows and the refugee emergency are all
threats that destabilize the region and contribute to creating a
“constantly renewing” arc of crisis, whose consequences have
an impact on Western countries as well. The current situation
in the MENA region therefore appears to be the byproduct of
dynamics of change in the international system, political deci-
sions taken by leading foreign actors, and social, political, and
economic dynamics within the Arab-Muslim world.
At the global level, the past two years have been marked by
the exacerbation of a process that was already underway for
some time: the decline of an international system that is prev-
alently based on a shared sense of Western values (liberalism,
multilateralism, international laws, etc.). A crisis of legitimacy
encompasses every fundamental dimension of the current in-
ternational political system, starting from the principles that
characterized every past model of international coexistence,
10 The Arc of Crisis in the MENA Region
i.e., the principles that define who are the legitimate subjects
within the international order, their status, the distribution of
territory between them, and the conditions at which they may
legitimately resort to military conflict. All these dynamics arise
in the MENA region as well.
This crisis is triggering the growing and renewed assertiveness
of potential global rivals of the United States, and particularly
Russia and China. The breakdown of the international system
into sub-regions that are progressively more independent is in-
creasing the weight of regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia,
Iran and Turkey. This condition is not helping to mitigate the
flames of the rivalries, whose original causes are certainly more
geopolitical than religious and/or sectarian. In this context, the
Trump administration has chosen to revitalize alliances with
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Israel in the attempt to contain Iran,
perceived as a major threat and a highly destabilizing actor.
Russia seems more interested in trying to become a mediator
for regional disputes in the region. In order to gain a privi-
leged geopolitical position in the area, and above all in Syria –
where it champions one side over others –, Moscow maintains
good relations with many of the regional actors. Not by chance,
Russia has broad ties of various natures: from Israel to Iran,
from Syria to Saudi Arabia, from Turkey to Lebanon. On the
one hand, this allows Russia to consolidate a phase of interven-
tionist foreign policy, functional at the same time to confront
the United States. On the other hand, this policy is certainly
precarious and costly, and raises the question of whether the
Kremlin will be able to fulfill its commitments with the (limit-
ed) resources available in the long term.
At the internal level, however, managing power and govern-
ance in many MENA countries remains highly problematic.
In less stable countries, internal fractures, which have at times
led to the outbreak of civil wars, have been intensified by the
growing influence of non-state actors on a local and interna-
tional level. Legitimacy, however, remains very fragile even in