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The Arab Uprisings in Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia: Social, Political and Economic Transformations PDF

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REFORM AND TRANSITION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN Series Editor: Ioannis N. Grigoriadis THE ARAB UPRISINGS IN EGYPT, JORDAN AND TUNISIA Social, Political and Economic Transformations Andrea Teti, Pamela Abbott and Francesco Cavatorta Reform and Transition in the Mediterranean Series editor Ioannis N. Grigoriadis Bilkent University Ankara, Turkey The series of political and economic crises that befell many countries in the Mediterranean region starting in 2009 has raised emphatically questions of reform and transition. While the sovereign debt crisis of Southern European states and the “Arab Spring” appear prima facie unrelated, some common roots can be identified: low levels of social capital and trust, high incidence of corruption, and poor institutional performance. This series provides a venue for the comparative study of reform and transition in the Mediterranean within and across the political, cultural, and religious boundaries that crisscross the region. Defining the Mediterranean as the region that encompasses the countries of Southern Europe, the Levant, and North Africa, the series contributes to a better understanding of the agents and the structures that have brought reform and transition to the forefront. It invites (but is not limited to) interdisciplinary approaches that draw on political science, history, sociology, economics, anthropology, area studies, and cultural studies. Bringing together case studies of indi- vidual countries with broader comparative analyses, the series provides a home for timely and cutting-edge scholarship that addresses the structural requirements of reform and transition; the interrelations between politics, history and culture; and the strategic importance of the Mediterranean for the EU, the USA, Russia, and emerging powers. More information about this series at http://www.palgrave.com/series/14513 Andrea Teti • Pamela Abbott Francesco Cavatorta The Arab Uprisings in Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia Social, Political and Economic Transformations Andrea Teti Pamela Abbott University of Aberdeen University of Aberdeen Aberdeen, United Kingdom Aberdeen, United Kingdom Francesco Cavatorta Laval University Québec, Québec, Canada Reform and Transition in the Mediterranean ISBN 978-3-319-69043-8 ISBN 978-3-319-69044-5 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69044-5 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017956116 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the pub- lisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institu- tional affiliations. Cover illustration: Pattern adapted from an Indian cotton print produced in the 19th century Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland F oreword This valuable study adds a critical dimension usually missing from analyses of the varying trajectories of the Arab Uprising, namely how citizen atti- tudes help explain the Uprising, how variations in them matter for regime trajectories, and how outcomes have, in turn, altered mass attitudes. The study is based on surveys in Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan administered in four years—2011 and 2013–2015—combined with a wealth of informa- tion from pre-existing data bases, permitting the authors to make system- atic comparisons across countries and time. The work makes several important contributions to our understandings of the Uprisings. First, the findings challenge the conventional narrative that the Uprisings were essentially about democracy: if that had been the overwhelming demand of the mobilised masses, why has been so little democratisation? Did the agency of the people not matter compared to elite interests and external constraints? The book’s findings help us get beyond this dilemma, demonstrating that the main demand of the protes- tors was not for purely procedural liberal democracy (competitive elec- tions, political rights) and that majorities wanted, rather, substantive democracy—socio-economic rights. Moreover, substantial numbers believed their country was not ready for democracy or preferred an Islamist regime or, when a trade-off between democracy and order was perceived, chose order. For protestors, the priorities were lack of economic opportunity and unacceptable levels of corruption, and the protests against regimes were for breaking the populist social contract under the widespread turn to neo-liberalism and crony capitalism in the region. The study confirms the v vi FOREWORD widespread impression that the activists driving regime change tended to be educated youth but also that supporters were more likely to be those with inadequate income (but not the very poorest) -  that is, those who had probably suffered the most from regimes’ policies and were most con- scious of them. The study also provides evidence on how citizen attitudes matter for outcomes. First, variations in attitudes can be directly linked to differences in regime trajectories: thus, opposition to the regime was overwhelming in Tunisia and in Egypt, where presidents were overthrown, but not in Jordan, were there was no regime change. In Tunisia alone was there high support for political democracy: it is no accident that only in Tunisia was there a successful democratic transition. Second, while in the immediate aftermath of the Uprisings there were high expectations of positive change, by 2014 disillusionment had set in as governments continued with neo-liberal policies. A multitude of attitudi- nal changes indicate political de-mobilisation: in 2014, only minorities thought the Uprising had been positive for their country and most thought the economic and security situation had deteriorated significantly com- pared to 2009. Perceptions of economic decline were worse than objective indicators showed. In parallel, expectations had drastically declined: peo- ple now believed reform had to come gradually, not via further revolution. Security had become a much more salient concern, to the point where the formerly hated police were now valued, and regimes in Jordan and Egypt enjoyed support for sparing their countries the violent chaos that had enveloped neighbouring countries. These changes in attitudes much reduced pressure on elites to deliver political reform and even re-l egitimised authoritarian governance. Third, attitudes suggest Tunisia’s democratic transition is in jeopardy. Its government, although the most democratic, was not highly rated by citizens; political rights might have improved but substantive democracy—social rights—had not, while Tunisia now faced a terrorist threat non-existent before the Uprising. This study offers a fascinating insight into why the Arab Uprising did not become a democratic revolution. International Relations and Middle East Politics Ray Hinnebusch University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Scotland P reFAce This book analyses political, economic and social changes in Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia since the 2010–2011 Uprisings against the backdrop of pre- Uprisings trajectories by integrating survey and non-survey data, both quantitative and qualitative. In doing so, it shows that there is a need to reflect on the conception of democracy at the heart of academic analysis and to take seriously the challenge that collective preferences provide clues to help address the limitations of existing analytical and policy toolkits. It is necessary to reconsider the significance of socio-economic rights—as well as juridical equality in civil and political rights—as non-negotiable dimensions of a democratic society and of transitions towards it, but also to re-evaluate the stability of authoritarian regimes in the region. Acknowledgements The Arab Transformations Project, Political and Social Transformations in the Arab World, was funded under the European Commission’s FP7 Framework Grant agreement no: 320214. The Project was coordinated by the University of Aberdeen (UK) and included: Dublin City University (DCU), Dublin, Ireland; Análisis Sociológicos Económicos y Políticos (ASEP), Madrid, Spain; Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale (ISPI), Milan, Italy; Universität Graz (UNI GRAZ), Graz, Austria; Societatea Pentru Methodologia Sondajelor Concluzia-Prim (Concluzia), Chisinau, Moldova; Centre de Recherche en Économie Appliquée pour le Développement (CREAD), Algiers, Algeria; Egyptian Centre for Public Opinion Research (BASEERA), Cairo, Egypt; Independent Institute for vii viii PREFACE Administration and Civil Society Studies (IIACSS), Amman, Jordan; University of Jordan (JU), Amman, Jordan; MEDA Solutions (MEDAS), Casablanca, Morocco; Association Forum Des Sciences Sociales Appliquées (ASSF), Tunis, Tunisia. disclAimer The authors alone remain responsible for the content of this book. It can- not be taken as necessarily representing the views of the EU, the Court of the University of Aberdeen or any of the project partners. Aberdeen, UK Andrea Teti c ontents 1 I ntroduction and Background 1 2 Understanding the Context: Hopes and Challenges in 2011 27 3 Political Challenges: Expectations and Changes 2011–2014 55 4 Unmet Challenges and Frustrated Expectations: Economic Security and Quality of Life 2011–2014 81 5 Employment Creation, Corruption and Gender Equality 2011–2014 103 6 Conclusions: Resilient Authoritarianism and Frustrated Expectations 123 Index 141 ix

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The Arab Uprisings were unexpected events of rare intensity in Middle Eastern history – mass, popular and largely non-violent revolts which threatened and in some cases toppled apparently stable autocracies. This volume provides in-depth analyses of how people perceived the socio-economic and poli
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Most books are stored in the elastic cloud where traffic is expensive. For this reason, we have a limit on daily download.