The Arab Uprisings in Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia: Social, Political and Economic Transformations

153 Pages·2018·1.82 MB·English

by  Andrea Teti

REFORM AND TRANSITION
IN THE MEDITERRANEAN
Series Editor: Ioannis N. Grigoriadis
THE ARAB
UPRISINGS IN EGYPT,
JORDAN AND TUNISIA
Social, Political and
Economic Transformations
Andrea Teti,
Pamela Abbott and
Francesco Cavatorta
Reform and Transition in the Mediterranean
Series editor
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis
Bilkent University
Ankara, Turkey
The series of political and economic crises that befell many countries in the
Mediterranean region starting in 2009 has raised emphatically questions
of reform and transition. While the sovereign debt crisis of Southern
European states and the “Arab Spring” appear prima facie unrelated, some
common roots can be identified: low levels of social capital and trust, high
incidence of corruption, and poor institutional performance. This series
provides a venue for the comparative study of reform and transition in the
Mediterranean within and across the political, cultural, and religious
boundaries that crisscross the region. Defining the Mediterranean as the
region that encompasses the countries of Southern Europe, the Levant,
and North Africa, the series contributes to a better understanding of the
agents and the structures that have brought reform and transition to the
forefront. It invites (but is not limited to) interdisciplinary approaches that
draw on political science, history, sociology, economics, anthropology,
area studies, and cultural studies. Bringing together case studies of indi-
vidual countries with broader comparative analyses, the series provides a
home for timely and cutting-edge scholarship that addresses the structural
requirements of reform and transition; the interrelations between politics,
history and culture; and the strategic importance of the Mediterranean for
the EU, the USA, Russia, and emerging powers.
More information about this series at
http://www.palgrave.com/series/14513
Andrea Teti • Pamela Abbott
Francesco Cavatorta
The Arab Uprisings in
Egypt, Jordan and
Tunisia
Social, Political and Economic Transformations
Andrea Teti Pamela Abbott
University of Aberdeen University of Aberdeen
Aberdeen, United Kingdom Aberdeen, United Kingdom
Francesco Cavatorta
Laval University
Québec, Québec, Canada
Reform and Transition in the Mediterranean
ISBN 978-3-319-69043-8 ISBN 978-3-319-69044-5 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69044-5
Library of Congress Control Number: 2017956116
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F
oreword
This valuable study adds a critical dimension usually missing from analyses
of the varying trajectories of the Arab Uprising, namely how citizen atti-
tudes help explain the Uprising, how variations in them matter for regime
trajectories, and how outcomes have, in turn, altered mass attitudes. The
study is based on surveys in Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan administered in
four years—2011 and 2013–2015—combined with a wealth of informa-
tion from pre-existing data bases, permitting the authors to make system-
atic comparisons across countries and time.
The work makes several important contributions to our understandings
of the Uprisings. First, the findings challenge the conventional narrative
that the Uprisings were essentially about democracy: if that had been the
overwhelming demand of the mobilised masses, why has been so little
democratisation? Did the agency of the people not matter compared to
elite interests and external constraints? The book’s findings help us get
beyond this dilemma, demonstrating that the main demand of the protes-
tors was not for purely procedural liberal democracy (competitive elec-
tions, political rights) and that majorities wanted, rather, substantive
democracy—socio-economic rights. Moreover, substantial numbers believed
their country was not ready for democracy or preferred an Islamist regime
or, when a trade-off between democracy and order was perceived, chose
order.
For protestors, the priorities were lack of economic opportunity and
unacceptable levels of corruption, and the protests against regimes were
for breaking the populist social contract under the widespread turn to
neo-liberalism and crony capitalism in the region. The study confirms the
v
vi FOREWORD
widespread impression that the activists driving regime change tended to
be educated youth but also that supporters were more likely to be those
with inadequate income (but not the very poorest) -  that is, those who
had probably suffered the most from regimes’ policies and were most con-
scious of them.
The study also provides evidence on how citizen attitudes matter for
outcomes. First, variations in attitudes can be directly linked to differences
in regime trajectories: thus, opposition to the regime was overwhelming
in Tunisia and in Egypt, where presidents were overthrown, but not in
Jordan, were there was no regime change. In Tunisia alone was there high
support for political democracy: it is no accident that only in Tunisia was
there a successful democratic transition.
Second, while in the immediate aftermath of the Uprisings there were
high expectations of positive change, by 2014 disillusionment had set in as
governments continued with neo-liberal policies. A multitude of attitudi-
nal changes indicate political de-mobilisation: in 2014, only minorities
thought the Uprising had been positive for their country and most thought
the economic and security situation had deteriorated significantly com-
pared to 2009. Perceptions of economic decline were worse than objective
indicators showed. In parallel, expectations had drastically declined: peo-
ple now believed reform had to come gradually, not via further revolution.
Security had become a much more salient concern, to the point where the
formerly hated police were now valued, and regimes in Jordan and Egypt
enjoyed support for sparing their countries the violent chaos that had
enveloped neighbouring countries. These changes in attitudes much
reduced pressure on elites to deliver political reform and even re-l egitimised
authoritarian governance. Third, attitudes suggest Tunisia’s democratic
transition is in jeopardy. Its government, although the most democratic,
was not highly rated by citizens; political rights might have improved but
substantive democracy—social rights—had not, while Tunisia now faced a
terrorist threat non-existent before the Uprising.
This study offers a fascinating insight into why the Arab Uprising did
not become a democratic revolution.
International Relations and Middle East Politics Ray Hinnebusch
University of St Andrews,
St Andrews, Scotland
P
reFAce
This book analyses political, economic and social changes in Egypt, Jordan
and Tunisia since the 2010–2011 Uprisings against the backdrop of pre-
Uprisings trajectories by integrating survey and non-survey data, both
quantitative and qualitative. In doing so, it shows that there is a need to
reflect on the conception of democracy at the heart of academic analysis
and to take seriously the challenge that collective preferences provide clues
to help address the limitations of existing analytical and policy toolkits. It
is necessary to reconsider the significance of socio-economic rights—as
well as juridical equality in civil and political rights—as non-negotiable
dimensions of a democratic society and of transitions towards it, but also
to re-evaluate the stability of authoritarian regimes in the region.
Acknowledgements
The Arab Transformations Project, Political and Social Transformations in
the Arab World, was funded under the European Commission’s FP7
Framework Grant agreement no: 320214. The Project was coordinated
by the University of Aberdeen (UK) and included: Dublin City University
(DCU), Dublin, Ireland; Análisis Sociológicos Económicos y Políticos
(ASEP), Madrid, Spain; Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale
(ISPI), Milan, Italy; Universität Graz (UNI GRAZ), Graz, Austria;
Societatea Pentru Methodologia Sondajelor Concluzia-Prim (Concluzia),
Chisinau, Moldova; Centre de Recherche en Économie Appliquée pour le
Développement (CREAD), Algiers, Algeria; Egyptian Centre for Public
Opinion Research (BASEERA), Cairo, Egypt; Independent Institute for
vii
viii PREFACE
Administration and Civil Society Studies (IIACSS), Amman, Jordan;
University of Jordan (JU), Amman, Jordan; MEDA Solutions (MEDAS),
Casablanca, Morocco; Association Forum Des Sciences Sociales Appliquées
(ASSF), Tunis, Tunisia.
disclAimer
The authors alone remain responsible for the content of this book. It can-
not be taken as necessarily representing the views of the EU, the Court of
the University of Aberdeen or any of the project partners.
Aberdeen, UK Andrea Teti
c
ontents
1 I ntroduction and Background 1
2 Understanding the Context: Hopes and Challenges
in 2011 27
3 Political Challenges: Expectations and Changes 2011–2014 55
4 Unmet Challenges and Frustrated Expectations: Economic
Security and Quality of Life 2011–2014 81
5 Employment Creation, Corruption and Gender Equality
2011–2014 103
6 Conclusions: Resilient Authoritarianism and Frustrated
Expectations 123
Index 141
ix