The Arab Awakening: America and the Transformation of the Middle East (Saban Center at the Brookings Institution Books) PDF
Preview The Arab Awakening: America and the Transformation of the Middle East (Saban Center at the Brookings Institution Books)
HigHligHts from A SAbAn Center At the brookingS inStitution book The ArAb AwAkening AP NO Dl The ArAb l OA “TheeventsthatbeganinTunisiainJanuary2011...shookthepolitical,social,and TC intellectualfoundationsoftheMiddleEast.Thetremorscanstillbefelt,andnooneisquite hK E/ certainwhentheaftershockswillend,orwhenanothershockwaveofpopularunrestmight RB occur.Nevertheless,enoughtimehaspassedtotrytomakesenseofwhathashappenedso Sy M AwAkening farand,perhaps,gainaninklingofwheretheregionisheaded.” A —fromtheIntroduction N “Al-QaedaanditsalliesnodoubtseeintheArabSpringadvantages.Fornow,thegroupshave greateroperationalfreedomofaction,andZawahiriandhisallieswillseektoexploitany T America and the Transformation furtherunrestinthemonthsandyearstocome.” h —Daniel L. Byman of the Middle East e “WhathappensinEgyptwillhaveprofoundconsequencesfortheentireregion.Ifdemocracy winsout....thenpeopleacrosstheMiddleEastwillbelievethattheycanandshoulddothe A same.Bythesametoken,ifEgypt’sbidfordemocracyfails...thenmanywillconcludethat r democratizationisimpossibleintheArabworld.” —Shadi Hamid A kenneth M. PollACk b “Theentrenchednatureofthedeepstate,thesectariandynamicsofSyrianpolitics,thefears DAniel l. byMAn thatsignificantportionsofthepopulationfeelfortheunknown—allthesefactorsandmore A AkrAM Al-turk willlikelycompelAsadtoclingtopowertothebitterend.” —Michael S. DoranandSalman Shaikh w PAvel k. bAev MiChAel S. DorAn “Algeriaiscaughtbetweenitsfearofreturningtochaosandviolenceifthearmyandthe A khAleD elginDy regimeloosenupanditsunderlyingsocioeconomicdifficultiesthatcryoutforpoliticaland k StePhen r. grAnD economicreform.” —Bruce O. Riedel e ShADi hAMiD n bruCe JoneS “Withoutliftingafinger,theIslamicRepublic[ofIran]sensedthatithadachievedoneofits SuzAnne MAloney foremoststrategicobjectives—weakeningAmericaninfluenceacrosstheMiddleEast.” i n JonAthAn D. PollACk —Suzanne Maloney bruCe o. rieDel g “IftheUnitedStatescomestobeseenasawillingpartneroftheArabpeoplesintheir ruth hAnAu SAntini questtobuildanewkindofMiddleEast,thenovertime,wemightfindanewstatusquo SAlMAn ShAikh emerge—onethatistrulypeacefulandprosperous,andthereforestable.” ibrAhiM ShArqieh —Kenneth M. Pollack ÖMer tAS¸ PinAr Shibley telhAMi BROOKINGSINSTITUTIONPRESS Washington,D.C. SArAh e. yerkeS www.brookings.edu COvERIMAGE:©ISTOCKPhOTO.COM COvERBySESE-PAUlDESIGN the arab awakening 00-2188-8 fm.indd 1 10/14/11 1:29 PM 00-2188-8 fm.indd 2 10/14/11 1:29 PM a saban center at the brookings institution book t h e a r ab awakening America and the Transformation of the Middle East Kenneth M. Pollack Daniel L. Byman Akram Al-Turk Jonathan D. Pollack Pavel K. Baev Bruce O. Riedel Michael S. Doran Ruth Hanau Santini Khaled Elgindy Salman Shaikh Stephen R. Grand Ibrahim Sharqieh Shadi Hamid Ömer Tas¸pinar Bruce Jones Shibley Telhami Suzanne Maloney Sarah E. Yerkes brookings institution press Washington, D.C. 00-2188-8 fm.indd 3 10/14/11 1:29 PM Copyright © 2011 THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20036 www.brookings.edu All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Brookings Institution Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data The Arab awakening : America and the transformation of the Middle East / Kenneth M. Pollack . . . [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. Summary: “Analyzes key aspects of the 2011 Mideast turmoil, such as Arab public opinion; socioeconomic and demographic conditions; the role of social media; influence of Islamists; the impact of political changes on the Arab-Israeli peace process; and ramifications for the United States and the rest of the world. Also provides country-by- country analysis of Middle East political evolution”—Provided by publisher. ISBN 978-0-8157-2226-7 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Arab countries—Politics and government—21st century. 2. Democratization—Arab countries—History—21st century. 3. Protest movements—Arab countries—History— 21st century. 4. United States—Foreign relations—Arab countries. 5. Arab countries— Foreign relations—United States. 6. Arab countries—Foreign relations—21st century. I. Pollack, Kenneth M. (Kenneth Michael), 1966– II. Title. JQ1850.A91A73 2011 956.05'4—dc23 2011038375 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Printed on acid-free paper Typeset in Minion Composition by Cynthia Stock Silver Spring, Maryland Printed by R. R. Donnelley Harrisonburg, Virginia 00-2188-8 fm.indd 4 10/14/11 1:29 PM We only have one fear, that the revolution will stop. Nothing else. Twenty-five-year-old Syrian activist Beirut, July 2011 00-2188-8 fm.indd 5 10/14/11 1:29 PM 00-2188-8 fm.indd 6 10/14/11 1:29 PM Contents Preface: Why Should You Read This Book? xi Acknowledgments xv 1 Introduction: Understanding the Arab Awakening 1 Kenneth M. Pollack Part I. The Dynamics of the Arab Spring 2 Arab Public Opinion: What Do They Want? 13 Shibley Telhami 3 Democratization 101: Historical Lessons for the Arab Spring 21 Stephen R. Grand 4 Islamists and the Brotherhood: Political Islam and the Arab Spring 29 Shadi Hamid 5 The Impact of New Media: The Revolution Will Be Tweeted 39 Michael S. Doran 6 The Impact on the Peace Process: Peacemaker or Peacebreaker? 47 Khaled Elgindy and Salman Shaikh 7 The Arab Militaries: The Double-Edged Swords 58 Kenneth M. Pollack 8 The Economic Dimension: The Price of Freedom 66 Suzanne Maloney 9 Terrorism: Al-Qaeda and the Arab Spring 76 Daniel L. Byman Part II. Countries in Transition 10 Democratizers? The Pursuit of Pluralism 87 Kenneth M. Pollack vii 00-2188-8 fm.indd 7 10/14/11 1:29 PM viii contents 11 Iraq: The Roller Coaster of Democracy 94 Kenneth M. Pollack 12 Egypt: The Prize 102 Shadi Hamid 13 Tunisia: Birthplace of the Revolution 111 Shadi Hamid 14 Libya: From Revolt to State-Building 117 Akram Al-Turk 15 The Palestinians: Between National Liberation and Political Legitimacy 128 Khaled Elgindy Part III. The Imperative of Reform 16 Reform: Convincing Reluctant Regimes to Change 141 Kenneth M. Pollack 17 Making Reform Credible: The Critical Piece of the Puzzle 148 Stephen R. Grand, Shadi Hamid, Kenneth M. Pollack, and Sarah E. Yerkes 18 Saudi Arabia: The Elephant in the Living Room 159 Bruce O. Riedel 19 Jordan: An Imperfect State 168 Salman Shaikh 20 Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE: The Nervous Bystanders 176 Suzanne Maloney 21 Bahrain: Island of Troubles 188 Michael S. Doran and Salman Shaikh 22 Morocco: The Model for Reform? 196 Sarah E. Yerkes 23 Algeria: Whistling Past the Graveyard 206 Bruce O. Riedel Part IV. States in Crisis 24 States in Civil War: Challenges for the United States 213 Daniel L. Byman 25 Yemen: The Search for Stability and Development 221 Ibrahim Sharqieh 26 Syria: The Ghosts of Hama 230 Michael S. Doran and Salman Shaikh 00-2188-8 fm.indd 8 10/14/11 1:29 PM contents ix Part V. Other Regional Actors 27 Regional Actors: The Changing Balance of Power in the Middle East 243 Daniel L. Byman and Kenneth M. Pollack 28 Israel: A Frosty Response to the Arab Spring 250 Daniel L. Byman 29 Iran: The Bogeyman 258 Suzanne Maloney 30 Turkey: An Interested Party 268 Ömer Tas¸pınar Part VI. The External Powers 31 External Powers: Riding the Tsunami 277 Kenneth M. Pollack 32 Europe: Muddling Through 285 Ruth Hanau Santini 33 Russia: Moscow Does Not Believe in Change 291 Pavel K. Baev 34 China: Unease from Afar 298 Jonathan D. Pollack 35 The International Order and the Emerging Powers: Implications of the Arab Awakening 305 Bruce Jones 36 The United States: A New American Grand Strategy for the Middle East 311 Kenneth M. Pollack Appendix: Political, Social, and Economic Indicators of the Middle East 319 Notes 325 About the Authors 365 Index 369 00-2188-8 fm.indd 9 10/14/11 1:29 PM
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