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The Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) in the Assessment of Chemical Warfare Activities PDF

358 Pages·2014·4.83 MB·English
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J o h n D . H a r t THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETING HYPOTHESES (ACH) IN T h THE ASSESSMENT OF CHEMICAL WARFARE ACTIVITIES e A n a ly s is o John D. Hart f C o m p e tin g H y p o th e s e s (A C H ) in th e A s s e s s m e n t o f C h e m ic a l W a rfa re A c tiv itie s S e r ie s 1 National Defence University , N Department of Strategic and Defence Studies o National Defence University Tel. +358 (0)299 800 ISBN 978-951-25-2574-4 (pbk.) 3 Department of Strategic and www.mpkk.fi ISBN 978-951-25-2575-1 (PDF) 4 Series 1: Strategic Research No 34 Defence Studies ISSN 1236-4959 PO Box 7, 00861 HELSINKI Finland MAANPUOLUSTUSKORKEAKOULU STRATEGIAN LAITOS JULKAISUSARJA 1: STRATEGIAN TUTKIMUKSIA No 34 NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF STRATEGIC AND DEFENCE STUDIES SERIES 1: STRATEGIC RESEARCH No 34 THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETING HYPOTHESES (ACH) IN THE ASSESSMENT OF CHEMICAL WARFARE ACTIVITIES JOHN D. HART AKATEEMINEN VÄITÖSKIRJA Esitetään Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulun tutkimusneuvoston suostumuksella julkisesti tarkastettavaksi sotatieteiden tohtorin tutkintoa varten Maanpuolustuskurssien luentosalissa, Maneesikatu 6, Helsinki, keskiviikkona 17. joulukuuta 2014 kello 12. ACADEMIC DISSERTATION To be presented, with the permission of the Research Council of National Defence University, for public criticism for the degree of Doctor of Military Sciences at the lecture hall of the National Defence Courses, Maneesikatu 6, Helsinki, on Wednesday, 17th December 2014 at 12 o'clock. NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY Department of Strategic and Defence Studies HELSINKI 2014 MAANPUOLUSTUSKORKEAKOULU STRATEGIAN LAITOS JULKAISUSARJA 1: STRATEGIAN TUTKIMUKSIA No 34 NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF STRATEGIC AND DEFENCE STUDIES SERIES 1: STRATEGIC RESEARCH No 34 THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETING HYPOTHESES (ACH) IN THE ASSESSMENT OF CHEMICAL WARFARE ACTIVITIES JOHN D. HART NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY Department of Strategic and Defence Studies HELSINKI 2014 John D. Hart: The Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) in the Assessment of Chemical Warfare Activities Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu, Strategian laitos Julkaisusarja 1: Strategian tutkimuksia No 34 Väitöskirja National Defence University, Department of Strategic and Defence Studies Series 1: Strategic Research No 34 Doctoral dissertation To download our latest publications in English in PDF format, please visit National Defence University web site http://www.mpkk.fi and Publication Archive Doria http://www.doria.fi/handle/10024/72633 Cover photo: Empty 130 mm chemical weapons artillery shells awaiting internationally-verified destruction in 2009. ©2009 C. L. Vago. Reproduced with permission. Layout: Anna Lind ISBN 978-951-25-2574-4 (pbk.) ISBN 978-951-25-2575-1 (PDF) ISSN 1236-4959 Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu – National Defence University Strategian laitos – Department of Strategic and Defence Studies Juvenes Print Tampere 2014 TO ALICE M. HART ABSTRACT Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) in the Assessment of Chemical Warfare Activities T his study contributes to the theory and practice of how chemical weapons programmes and activity can be evaluated in the context of the international prohibition against their development, production, stockpiling, transfer and use as reflected in the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention. It presents an application of a hybrid and qualitative variation of Heuer’s Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) directed towards arms control verification and intelligence practice using three case studies: the Soviet Union, Iraq and suspected al-Qaeda affiliates. The study is comprehensive and multidisciplinary in approach, rather than reductionist. It draws on a large array of data as they relate to the technical, military and politico-strategic characteristics of chemical warfare, linking a large number of historical detail with conceptual insight into the nature of chemical warfare and chemical weapons arms control. The work also places intelligence operational art on a more secure theoretical academic foundation in the chemical weapons-related context, partly by providing a useful basis for the understanding of the operational- and strategic-level analysis of chemical weapons threat assessments and appropriate policy responses. It shifts ACH practice closer to theoretical international relations models with respect to higher-level strategic and defence analysis, and international relations theory as it relates to WMD-related international peace and security questions. It does so partly by suggesting that a corollary exists between the role played by national intelligence requirements, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, that played by arms control verification. In particular, the information taskings for both weapons-specific arms control verification and national intelligence overlap to a great extent. However, the priorities and perceived political acceptability for arms control verification and intelligence assessments are distinct and, in many respects, opposed to each other. For example, an arms control assessment carried out within a multilateral legal regime tends to possess greater overall international credibility and weight so long as it is done in a professional technical manner whose findings then inform the subsequent political and legal considerations. National based intelligence assessments are, as a rule, necessarily kept secret to protect sources and methods and are also more likely to be questioned on the grounds that the conclusions support national policy. Nevertheless, the information taskings should, on the basis of their respective technical requirements, yield similar outcomes. While in practice this does not necessarily occur, the gap can perhaps be narrowed on the basis of better operational-level understanding of how such assessments should ideally be carried out. National intelligence-driven processes, procedures and purposes can perhaps be better described at the strategic level by realism international relations theory, while those for arms control verification can perhaps be better described by neoliberal institutionalism. Those in academia, government and the public can usefully refer to this study for a baseline of authoritative information with which to evaluate the derivation and use of information relevant to verification processes and requirements and their broader relevance for security and defence studies. Such evaluations can assist the consideration of what verification data actually mean and how technical and scientific findings relate to the question of treaty compliance by states and the resulting implications for the strength of the rule-of- law at the inter- and intra-state levels, as well as for strategic and defence studies in general. ANALYSIS OF COMPETING HYPOTHESES i CONTENTS About the Author ix Acknowledgements x Abbreviations and acronyms xi Summary xvi Scope and focus xix Key words and terms xxiv PART I: INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY 1 1. Introduction 2 1.1. Contribution to the Literature 7 1.2. The Problem of Data Overload and Related Considerations 10 2. The Rise of Modern Chemical Warfare 15 2.1. Preparedness and Awareness Raising 23 2.2. CW Evaluation and War Planning 26 2.3. International Cooperation on Chemical Weapons 36 2.4. Evolution of Chemical Weapons Threat Assessments 37 2.5. Chemical Industry 39 3. Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-proliferation: Contemporary Verification Context 42 3.1. Arms Control During the Cold War 44 3.2. Post-Cold War Arms Control 47 3.3. Verification Aspects of Arms Control, Disarmament and Nonproliferation Regimes 52 3.4. Current and Future Verification Activities 57 4. Information Acquisition and Management: Trends and Developments 58 5. Research Questions and Framing the Issue 64 6. Structuring the Analysis 69 6.1. The Political Dimension 69 6.1.1. Behaviouralism 70 6.1.2. Rational Choice Theory 70 6.1.3. Institutionalism 70 6.1.4. Constructivism (Interpretive Theory) 71 6.2. Intelligence Management Cycle 72 6.2.1. Background on Intelligence and Information Management Cycles 74 ii HART 6.2.2. The Intelligence Cycle Today: Towards a Conception of Information Acquisition and Management for CW Assessment Purposes 76 6.3. Types of Intelligence Activity 80 7. Observations on the Derivation and Use of CW-related Information 84 8. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses 86 9. Defining a CW-focused Structured Analysis of Competing Hypotheses 89 9.1. CW Matrices, Decisionmaking Process and Indicators 89 10. Operationalising a CW-focused ACH: Organisation of Analysis of Case Studies 95 Step 1 Identify the Possible Hypotheses to be Considered 96 Step 2 Make a List of Significant Evidence and Arguments For and Against Each Hypothesis 96 Step 3 Prepare Matrices with Hypotheses 99 Matrix Production/Stockpiling 100 Cumulative Preliminary Score 104 IR1. Does Target Have CW Technical Capability (e.g., Military, Medical)? 104 IR2. Is CW Mentioned in Military Doctrine? 104 IR3. Statements and Similar Communications 105 IR4. Weight of Evidence of Integration of CW into Military Doctrine? 105 IR5. Interest in CW Activities of Others? 105 IR6. Evidence of CW Production? 105 Step 4 Refine the Matrix 106 Step 5 Draw Tentative Conclusions About the Relative Likelihood of Each Hypothesis 107 Step 6 Analyse Sensitivity of Conclusions 108 Step 7 Report Conclusions 110 Step 8 Identify Milestones 111 10.1. Summary of Application 111

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