The Analysis of Actual Versus Perceived Risks

374 Pages·1983·16.98 MB·English

by  H. C. Joksch (auth.)

The Analysis of
Actual Versus
Perceived Risks
ADVANCES IN RISK ANALYSIS
This series is edited by the Society for Risk Analysis.
Volume 1 THE ANALYSIS OF ACTUAL VERSUS PERCEIVED RISKS
Edited by Vincent T. Covello, W. Gary Flamm,
Joseph V. Rodricks, and Robert G. Tardiff
A Continuation Order Plan is available for this series. A continuation order will bring
delivery of each new volume immediately upon publication. Volumes are billed only
upon actual shipment. For further information please contact the publisher.
The Analysis of
Actual Versus
Perceived Risks
Edited by
Vincent T. Covello
U.S. National Science Foundation
Washington, D.C.
W. Gary Flamm
Food and Drug Administration
Washington, D.C.
Joseph V. Rodricks
Environ Corporation
Washington, D.C.
and
Robert G. Tardiff
National Academy of Sciences
Washington, D.C.
Plenum Press • New York and London
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
International Workshop on the Analysis of Actual Versus Perceived Risks (1981:
Washington, D.C.)
The analysis of actual versus perceived risks.
(Advances in risk analysis; v. 1)
"Proceedings of an International Workshop on the Analysis of Actual Versus
Perceived Risks, held June 1-3, 1981... Washington, D.C." - T.p. verso.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Technology assessment-Congresses. 2. Risk-Congresses. I. Covello, Vin
cent T. II. Title. III. Series.
TI74.5.I58 1981 363.1'0028'7 83-11071
ISBN-13: 978-1-4613-3762-1 e-ISBN-13: 978-1-4613-3760-7
DOl: 10.1007/978-1-4613-3760-7
Proceedings of the Society for Risk Analysis International Workshop
on the Analysis of Actual Versus Perceived Risks,
held June 1-3, 1981,
at the National Academy of Sciences Auditorium,
in Washington, DC
© 1983 Plenum Press, New York
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 15 t edition 1983
A Division of Plenum Publishing Corporation
233 Spring Street, New York, N.Y. 10013
All rights reserved
No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted
in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming,
recording, or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher
PREFACE
In 1980, a group of scientists from national laboratories,
universities, and other research organizations gathered informally
in a series of meetings to consider the state of research on risks to
health, safety, and the environment. Each scientist had conducted
research on the subject. All felt that the traditional disciplines
and professional societies to which they belonged were neither ade
quate nor appropriate for addressing the extraordinarily complex
problems of assessing the risks inherent in modern society. The con
sensus of the group was that a new society was needed to address
these problems in a scientific and objective way. From these initial
meetings, the Society for Risk Analysis was formed
The major aims of the Society for Risk Analysis, as stated in
its constitution, are
• to promote knowledge and understanding of risk
analysis techniques and their applications;
• to promote communication and interaction among
those engaged in risk analysis; and
• to disseminate risk analysis information and
promote the advancement of all aspects of
risk analysis.
Members of the Society are drawn from a variety of disciplines,
including the health sciences, engineering, the physical sciences,
the humanities, and the behavioral and social sciences. An import
ant function of the Society is the annual meeting, at which var
ious aspects of risk analysis are discussed. The first annual meet
ing, represented by this volume, was the International Workshop on
the Analysis of Actual vs. Perceived Risks, held from June 1-3, 1981,
at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, D.C.
v
vi PREFACE
The decision to hold a workshop on this theme was stimulated by
the provocative research finding that technical experts and nonex
perts differ substantially in their risk estimates. Risk estimates
by technical experts tend to be closely correlated with annual fa
tality rates, whereas the risk estimates by nonexperts are only
moderately-to-poorly correlated with annual fatality rates. In hope
of clarifying this issue, the workshop organizers selected cases
that represent Some of the most important aspects and dimensions of
risk: voluntaryvs. involuntary; low vs. high probability of occur
rence, exposure, and effects; and high vs. low health, safety, or
environmental consequences.
The workshop was supported with funds from the Alfred P. Sloan
Foundation, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Nuclea~
Regulatory Commission. The meeting was co-sponsored by the World
Health Organization and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (the
Board on Toxicology and Environmental Health Hazards, and the Assem
bly of Behavioral and Social Sciences).
Vincent T. Covello, Chairman
Publication Committee
Society for Risk Analysis
CONTENTS
I. AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENTS:
THE PROBLEM OF PASSENGER RESTRAINTS
Effectiveness of Automobile Passenger Restraints
H. C. Joksch ....................................... . 1
Public Perception and Behavior in Relation to Vehicle
Passenger Restraints
Leon S. Robertson .......................•........... 11
Motor Vehicle Occupant Restraint Policy
Joan Claybrook ..................................... . 21
Summary of Panel Discussion and Commentary
Christoph Hohenemser ............................... . 49
II. NUCLEAR POWER PLANT - EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE
The Assessment of Nuclear Risk. Some Experiences
from the Swedish Energy Commission
Bengt Hansson ......•.•..........................•..• 69
Nuclear Power Plant: West German Management
of Risk - A Problem Analysis
H. Paschen, G. Bechmann,
and G. Frederichs ..•..•.......................... 81
Coping with the Risks of Nuclear Power Plants
in the United Kingdom
Timothy O'Riordan •.................................. 101
Risk Assessment Following Crisis in the United States:
The Kemeny Commission
Roger E. Kasperson and Arnold L. Gray ...•........... 129
vii
viii CONTENTS
III. CANCER CHEMOTHERAPHY
Role of Risk in Treating Advanced Lung Cancer
Kenneth Stanley ...•....••..•......................•. 157
IV. SMOKING CIGARETTES
Cigarette Smoke: Cancer Risk at Low Doses
Charles E. Lawrence and Albert S. Paulson ....•....•. 169
Perceiving the Risk of Low-Yield Ventilated-Filter
Cigarettes: The Problem of Hole-Blocking
Lynn T. Kozlowski .....•............•...•......•....• 175
Reactions to Perceived Risk: Changes in the Behavior
of Cigarette Smokers
Kenneth E. Warner .........•...........•.........•... 183
Perceived vs. Actual Risks: The Problem
of Multiple Confounding
Theodor D. Sterling ................................ . 203
V. NUCLEAR POWER PLANT - U.S. PERSPECTIVE
The Public Perception of Risk
D. Litai, D. D. Lanning, and N. C. Rasmussen ....... . 213
Impact of the Three Mile Island Accident
as Perceived by Those Living in the Surrounding
Connnunity
Anne D. Trunk and Edward V. Trunk .....•............. 225
"The Public" vs. "The Experts": Perceived
vs. Actual Disagreements about Risks
Baruch Fischhoff, Paul Slovic,
and Sarah Lichtenstein ........•...•.............. 235
Coping with Nuclear Power Risks: A National Strategy
Chauncey Starr ....•.....•....•.........•............ 251
VI. HEALTH IMPACT OF TOXIC WASTES
Health Impact of Toxic Wastes: Estimation of Risk
Rena te D. Kimbrough ....................•..•.....•... 259
Perception of Risk: A Journalist's Perspective
Joanne Omang •....•......•.............•....•........ 267
CONTENTS ix
VII. DEPLETION OF STRATOSPHERIC OZONE
Depletion of Stratospheric Ozone as a Result
of Human Activities
R. D. Hudson ........•.•...•.•••.••••...••••.....••••• 273
Relationship of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
to Risk of Human Skin Cancer
Frederick Urbach ..•.•..•....... , .........•.•.• , ••••.. 281
Depletion of Stratospheric Ozone: Impact of UV-B
Radiation Upon Nonhuman Organisms
Robert C. Worrest •.•.....•.............•.•.......... 303
Chairman's Summary
Claud S. Rupert .............................•....... 317
VIII. PANEL DISCUSSION .............................. . 323
APPENDIX
Actual vs. Perceived Risk: A Policy-Related
Bibliography
Vincent T. Covello and Mark Abernathy ............. . 351
INDEX ................................................ . 373
EFFECTIVENESS OF AUTOMOBILE PASSENGER RESTRAINTS
H. C. Joksch
The Center for the Environment & Man, Inc.
275 Windsor Street
Hartford, Connecticut 06120
1.0. Introduction
Occupant restraints are effective means to reduce the probabil
ity of death and injury, and the severity of injuries in motor ve
hicle crashes. Their effect depends strongly on the crash condi
tions, primarily direction and magnitude of the forces. The overall
effectiveness of restraints also depends on how reliably they per
form and, in the case of belts, how frequently they are used.
To estimate the effe~tiveness of restraint systems, actual
crashes must be studied. One had to determine whether death or in
jury occurred and to quantify injury severity. Characteristics of
the crash and of the victim which influence the fatality injury
risks, and injury severity must be investigated. Then models are
applied to separate the effects of the other factors from those of
the restraint system used (if any). Because the crash conditions
and their quantification are imprecise predictors of injury out
comes, such models are necessarily statistical.
2.0. Injury Severity
At first glance, death appears to be a well-defined consequence
of an accident. However, two legal definitions are used intheU.S.:
death within 30 days, or within one year from the date of the ac
cident.
"Injury" is not as precisely defined. "Whiplash" can be a non
trivial medical problem, though it might not be easily observable.
A minor bruise, though objectively identifiable, might be too trivial