The American Academy of Political and Social Science

203 Pages·2002·0.79 MB·English

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CONTENTS
PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .David P.Farrington
and Brandon C.Welsh 8
PART I:METHODS AND PERSPECTIVES
MEETING THE CHALLENGES OF
EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY:
THE CAMPBELL COLLABORATION. . . . . . . . . . . . . .Anthony Petrosino,
Robert F.Boruch,
Haluk Soydan,
Lorna Duggan,
and Julio Sanchez-Meca 14
THE CAMPBELL COLLABORATION
CRIME AND JUSTICE GROUP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .David P.Farrington
and Anthony Petrosino 35
DOES RESEARCH DESIGN AFFECT STUDY
OUTCOMES IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE? . . . . . . . . . . . . . .David Weisburd,
Cynthia M.Lum,
and Anthony Petrosino 50
META-ANALYTIC METHODS
FOR CRIMINOLOGY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .David B.Wilson 71
PART II:RESEARCH FINDINGS FROM PREVENTION
AND INTERVENTION STUDIES
EARLY PARENT TRAINING TO PREVENT
DISRUPTIVE BEHAVIOR PROBLEMS
AND DELINQUENCY IN CHILDREN . . . . . . . . . . . . .Odette Bernazzani,
Catherine Côté,
and Richard E.Tremblay 90
THE EFFECTS OF HOT SPOTS
POLICING ON CRIME. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Anthony A.Braga 104
EFFECTS OF CORRECTIONAL BOOT
CAMPS ON OFFENDING. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Doris Layton MacKenzie,
David B.Wilson,
and Suzanne B.Kider 126
COGNITIVE-BEHAVIORAL PROGRAMS
FOR OFFENDERS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Mark W.Lipsey,
Gabrielle L.Chapman,
and Nana A.Landenberger 144
PART III:FUTURE DIRECTIONS
TOWARD AN EVIDENCE-BASED APPROACH
TO PREVENTING CRIME. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Brandon C.Welsh
and David P.Farrington 158
BOOK DEPARTMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
INDEX. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
BOOK DEPARTMENT CONTENTS
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND POLITICS
BROOKER,PAUL.Non-Democratic
Regimes.Paul C.Sondrol. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
DOBROWOLSKY,ALEXANDRA.The Politics
of Pragmatism.Women,Representation,and
Constitutionalism in Canada.Naomi Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
FLERAS,AUGIE and PAUL SPOONLEY.
Recalling Aotearoa:Indigenous Politics and
Ethnic Relations in New Zealand.Terry Wotherspoon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
LAMMERS,WILLIAM W.and MICHAEL A.GENOVESE.
The Presidency and Domestic Policy:
Comparing Leadership Styles,FDR to Clinton.Lance T.LeLoup. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
MACMANUS,SUSAN A.Targeting Senior Voters:
Campaign Outreach to Elders and Others with
Special Needs.Robert E.Denton,Jr. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
AFRICA,ASIA,AND LATIN AMERICA
KOLSTØ,PÅL.Political Construction Sites:
Nation-Building in Russia and the
Post-Soviet States.Ray Taras. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
LOMNITZ,LARISSA ADLER and ANA MELNICK.
Chile’s Political Culture and Parties,An
Anthropological Explanation.Michael Fleet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
RONIGER,LUIS and MARIO SZNAJDER.
The Legacy of Human Rights Violations
in the Southern Cone,Argentina,Chile
and Uruguay.Cesar N.Caviedes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
SWAINE,MICHAEL D.and ASHLEY J.TELLIS.
Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy:
Past,Present and Future.Brantly Womack. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
VERÁSTIQUE,BERNARDINO.Michoacán and Eden:
Vasco de Quiroga and the Evangelization of
Western Mexico.William B.Taylor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
EUROPE
GLOVER,JONATHAN.Humanity:
A Moral History of the Twentieth
Century.Brian VanDeMark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
GONEN,JAY Y.The Roots of Nazi Psychology:
Hitler’s Utopian Barbarism.Vamik D.Volkan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
QUINN,FREDERICK.The French
Overseas Empire.G.Wesley Johnson. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
UNITED STATES
ALTSCHULER,GLENN and STUART BLUMIN.
Rude Republic:Americans and Their Politics in
the Nineteenth Century.Jean H.Baker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
DIGGENS,JOHN PATRICK.On Hallowed Ground:
Abraham Lincoln and the Foundations of
American History.Barry Schwartz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
FISHER,LOUIS.Congressional Abdication on
War & Spending.Charles Tiefer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
STARK,ANDREW.Conflict of Interest in American
Public Life.Glenn Harlan Reynolds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
STEPHAN,ALEXANDER.“Communazis”:
FBI Surveillance of German Emigre
Writers.Bernard F.Dick. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
SUMMERS,MARK WAHLGREN.Rum,
Romanism,& Rebellion:The Making
of a President,1884.Samuel T.McSeveney. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
WEBBER,MICHAEL J.New Deal Fat Cats:
Campaign Finances and the Democratic
Party in 1936.Marc Dollinger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
SOCIOLOGY
BAYOR,RONALD H.Race and the
Shaping of Twentieth Century
Atlanta.Clarence N.Stone. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
BROWDER,LAURA.Slippery Characters:
Ethnic Impersonators and American
Identities.S.Elizabeth Bird . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198
COSTA,DORA L.The Evolution of Retirement:
An American Economic History,
1880-1990.Jon R.Moen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199
ECONOMICS
FISKE,EWARD B.and HELEN F.LADD.
When Schools Compete:A Cautionary
Tale.John F.Witte. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
TPHREEF AANCNEALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY
PREFACE
The main aims of this special issue of The Annals are to examine the
systematicreviewmethodandtoreportonsomeofitscontributionstoevi-
dence-based crime prevention.The main title of this issue,“What Works in
Preventing Crime?”signals our primary interest in identifying those inter-
ventionsthatareeffectiveinpreventingcrimeandoffendingandthatulti-
matelymayleadtomoreeffectivecrimepreventionpolicyandpractice.The
issue’ssubtitle,“SystematicReviewsofExperimentalandQuasi-Experimen-
tal Research,” signals our interest in using the most rigorous methods of
researchsynthesisandonlythehighest-qualityresearchdesignstoevaluate
the effectiveness of criminological interventions.
Systematic reviews have received increased attention in recent years in
thesocialsciencesgenerallyandincriminologyandcriminaljusticespecifi-
cally.Thisispartofthebroaderinterestinevidence-basedpolicyandpractice
inpublicservices(Davies,Nutley,andSmith2000)andevidence-basedcrime
prevention (Sherman et al.1997,forthcoming).
At the forefront of the development of systematic reviews is the newly
formed Campbell Collaboration. Named after the influential experimental
psychologistDonaldT.Campbell(1969),thiswassetupforthepurposeofpre-
paring, maintaining, and disseminating evidence-based research on the
effects of interventions in the fields of education, social welfare,and crime
andjustice.ItsCrimeandJusticeGroupaimstoprepareandmaintainsys-
tematicreviewsofcriminologicalinterventionsandtomakethemaccessible
electronicallytoscholars,practitioners,policymakers,andthegeneralpub-
lic.Thepresentwork,althoughnotofficiallycarriedoutundertheauspicesof
the Campbell Collaboration, represents an important contribution to its
CrimeandJusticeGroup,andthefoursystematicreviewsreportedhereare
undergoingreviewbytheCampbellCollaboration;itishopedthattheywill
be approved and disseminated as Campbell reviews in due course.
ThisissueofTheAnnalsintroducesthepath-breakingworkoftheCamp-
bell Collaboration and its Crime and Justice Group,examines key method-
ological issues facing systematic reviews of criminological interventions,
reportsonfouroriginalsystematicreviewsoftheeffectsofdifferentinterven-
tionsoncrimeandoffending,andmakesprogresstowardanevidence-based
approach to preventing crime and offending. Throughout this issue, crime
preventionisdefinedasanyprogramorpolicythatcausesalowernumberof
crimestooccurinthefuturethanwouldhaveoccurredwithoutthatprogram
or policy.
This special issue originated with the 2001 Jerry Lee Crime Prevention
Symposium,a2-dayconferenceonsystematicreviewsofcriminologicalinter-
ventions,heldinearlyAprilattheUniversityofMaryland,CollegePark,and
attheU.S.capitolbuildinginWashington,D.C.ConvenedbytheUniversityof
Maryland’sDepartmentofCriminologyandCriminalJusticeandsponsored
8
PREFACE 9
by the Jerry Lee Foundation,1 the conference brought together leading
researchersinthefieldsofcrimeprevention,experimentalcriminology,and
research synthesis.The conference also benefited from the participation of
directorsofgovernmentalandnongovernmentalresearchunits,criminaljus-
tice policy makers, and journalists specializing in crime and justice. Five
countrieswererepresented:Australia,Canada,Israel,theUnitedKingdom,
andtheUnitedStates.Papersonsubstantiveissuesrelatingtomethodsand
findingsofsystematicreviewsofcriminologicalinterventionswerepresented
anddiscussed.Subsequentlythepaperswererevisedinlightofeditorialcom-
ments,and they are now presented here.
METHODS AND PERSPECTIVES
Fourarticlesexaminemethodsofconductingsystematicreviewsofcrimi-
nologicalinterventions.Importantineachofthesearticles,andtothisspecial
issueasawhole,istheneedforsystematicreviewstoincludeonlythosestud-
ieswiththehighestqualityresearchdesignstoevaluatetheimpactofpre-
ventionprogramsoncrimeandoffending.Inthecaseofcriminologyandcrim-
inaljustice,thismeansexperimental(randomizedandnonrandomized)and
quasi-experimentaldesigns.Ideallywewouldhavebeenabletolimitstudies
in systematic reviews to only those that used randomized experimental
designs,asthisisthemostconvincingmethodofevaluatingcrimeprevention
programs(Farrington1983).However,forsystematicreviewsofcriminologi-
cal interventions,this is rarely feasible,largely because there is not a long
historyofexperimentalevaluationsincriminologyandthiswouldresultin
the complete exclusion of area-level studies (as opposed to individual-level
studies),suchastheeffectsofclosedcircuittelevisionandmanytypesofcom-
munitycrimepreventionprograms.Inarea-levelstudies,thebestandmost
feasibledesignusuallyinvolvesbeforeandaftermeasuresofcrimeincompa-
rableexperimentalandcontrolconditions,togetherwithstatisticalcontrolof
extraneous variables.
In the first article,by Anthony Petrosino,Robert Boruch,Haluk Soydan,
Lorna Duggan, and Julio Sanchez-Meca, the authors discuss the growing
interestinandchallengesfacinganevidence-basedapproachtothedevelop-
mentofpublicpolicyandpractice.Someofthesechallenges,whichtakethe
form of political and policy efforts to maintain the status quo (see Davies,
Nutley,andSmith1999)aswellasthequalityoftheevaluationevidence,can
be overcome through the use of systematic reviews.
In the second article, by David Farrington and Anthony Petrosino, the
authorsdescribeindetailthemethodologyofsystematicreviewstoinvesti-
gatetheeffectivenessofinterventionstopreventcrimeandcriminaloffend-
ing.AlsodelineatedarethemanychallengesfacingtheCampbellCollabora-
tionCrimeandJusticeGroup.Inthecontextofdiscussingthemostimportant
of these challenges—the criterion of methodological quality to be used for
10 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY
includingstudies—theauthorsreviewsomeofthetheoreticalunderpinnings
of evaluation methodology.
Inlightoftheneedforsystematicreviewsofcriminologicalinterventions
to include studies with different high-quality research designs, instead of
being limited to studies with only randomized experimental designs, an
importantquestionis,Doestheresearchdesignaffectstudyoutcomes?This
is the focus of the third article by David Weisburd, Cynthia Lum, and
AnthonyPetrosino.Theauthorsbeginwithareviewofthemethodsliterature
onthistopicandreportonkeystudiesinmedicineandthesocialsciencesthat
haveinvestigatedthesubjectofresearchdesign’saffectingstudyoutcomes.
Fortheirstudy—thefirstofitskindfocusedspecificallyoncriminologicaland
criminal justice interventions—the authors draw on a recent, encyclopedic
review of the crime prevention evidence that was commissioned by the
NationalInstituteofJusticeandcarriedoutbyLawrenceShermanandhis
colleagues(1997).Weisburdandhiscolleaguesfindthatthereisa“moderate
inverserelationship”betweenresearchdesignandstudyoutcomes.Themain
implicationofthisfinding,despitetheauthors’notingthattheirworkispre-
liminaryandhencethatitshouldbeinterpretedwithcaution,isthatthefind-
ingsofsystematicreviewsmaybebiasedbytheinclusionofnonrandomized
studies.
Inthefinalarticleinthissection,DavidWilsonreviewsthemethodologyof
the quantitative data synthesis technique of meta-analysis (the statistical
analysis of the results of prior research studies), examines some of its
strengthsandlimitationsasamethodforassessingtheeffectivenessofcrimi-
nologicalinterventions,anddiscussestheimportanceofitsuseinsystematic
reviews.AsnotedinthearticlebyDavidFarringtonandAnthonyPetrosino
and elsewhere (for example, Farrington and Petrosino 2000; Farrington,
Petrosino,andWelsh2001),quantitativetechniques(forexample,meta-anal-
ysis)shouldbeused,whenappropriateandfeasible,insummarizingresults
aspartofsystematicreviews.Theappropriatenessandfeasibilityofdoinga
meta-analysis as part of a systematic review depend, in large part, on the
needtohaveareasonablenumberofinterventionstudies(fromwhicheffect
sizescanbecalculated)andtohavestudiesthataresufficientlysimilartobe
grouped together. These points notwithstanding, the inclusion of a meta-
analysisinasystematicreview(whendonewithfullintegrity,ofcourse)has
thecapacitytoproducethemostrigoroussummaryassessmentoftheeffec-
tiveness of a criminological intervention based on a number of evaluation
studies.
RESEARCH FINDINGS FROM PREVENTION
AND INTERVENTION STUDIES
Thesystematicreviewandthemeta-analyticreviewarethemostrigorous
methods for assessing the effectiveness of criminological interventions and
have the most to offer to evidence-based crime prevention.2
PREFACE 11
Systematicreviewsuserigorousmethodsforlocating,appraising,andsyn-
thesizingevidencefrompriorevaluationstudies,andtheyarereportedwith
the same level of detail that characterizes high-quality reports of original
research. They have explicit objectives, explicit criteria for including or
excluding studies, extensive searches for eligible evaluation studies from
aroundtheworld,carefulextractionandcodingofkeyfeaturesofstudies,and
astructuredanddetailedreportofthemethodsandconclusionsofthereview.
All of this contributes greatly to the ease of their replication by other
researchers.
Fourarticlesreportonsystematicreviewsoftheeffectsofdifferentinter-
ventionsinpreventingcrimeoroffending:parenttrainingandsupportpro-
grams,hotspotspolicing,correctionalbootcamps,andcognitive-behavioral
programs.Eachfollowsascloselyaspossiblethemethodologyforconducting
systematic reviews that has been specified by the Campbell Collaboration.
Inthefirstarticleofthissection,OdetteBernazzani,CatherineCôté,and
RichardTremblayreportonasystematicreviewofparenttrainingandsup-
portbeforeage3.Sevenstudiesarereviewed,andeffectivenessisassessedon
the outcome measures of disruptive behavior (for example, opposition to
adults,truancy,aggression)anddelinquency.Theauthorsfindthattheevi-
denceoneffectivenessismixed:threestudiesreportsomebeneficialeffects
(withonereportingsomeharmfuleffects),andtheotherfourstudiesreport
noevidenceofeffectiveness.Theauthorscallforcautionininterpretingthe
results(forexample,duetomodesteffectsizesofthebeneficialstudies)and
recommend further intervention studies in these areas.
Inthesecondarticle,AnthonyBragareviewstheeffectsofhotspotspolic-
ing to reduce crime. This form of policing involves the targeting of police
enforcement measures in high-crime areas.Nine studies are reviewed,and
effectiveness is assessed on the outcome measures of crime and disorder.
Bragaalsoexaminestheeffectsofthestudiesonthedisplacementofcrime
(anunintendedincreaseincrime,forexample,inadifferentlocation)andthe
diffusionofcrimecontrolbenefits(anunintendeddecreaseincrimeinadif-
ferent location).He finds evidence that targeted police actions can prevent
crimeanddisorderinhotspots,thatdisplacementisrare,andthatsomepro-
grams produce unintended crime prevention benefits.
Thethirdarticle,byDorisMacKenzie,DavidWilson,andSuzanneKider,
reportsonasystematicreview—incorporatingmeta-analytictechniques—of
theeffectsofcorrectionalbootcamps(otherwiseknownasshockorintensive
incarceration) on offending. Forty-four studies are reviewed, and effective-
nessisassessedaccordingtorecidivism.Thesystematicreviewrevealsvar-
iedeffectsonrecidivism:9studiesreportbeneficialeffects,8reportharmful
effects,and27reportnoeffects.Overallthemeta-analysisfindsevidenceof
noeffect.MacKenzieandhercolleaguesconcludethatbootcampsareaninef-
fective correctional treatment to reduce future offending.
Inthefinalarticleinthissection,MarkLipsey,GabrielleChapman,and
Nana Landenberger report on a systematic review—incorporating
12 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY
meta-analytic techniques—of cognitive-behavioral programs for offenders.
Fourteenofthehighestqualitystudieswithoutcomemeasuresofrecidivism
arereviewed.Lipseyandhiscolleaguesfindstrongevidencethatcognitive-
behavioral programs are effective in reducing recidivism.
FUTURE DIRECTIONS
In the final article in this collection,we bring together the main conclu-
sionsfromtheindividualarticlesandidentifyprioritiesformovingtowardan
evidence-based approach to preventing crime.
The Campbell Collaboration Crime and Justice Group has begun the
importanttaskofpreparingsystematicreviewsoftheeffectivenessofawide
rangeofcriminologicalinterventionsandwillsoonbeinapositiontomake
themaccessibletoresearchers,policymakers,practitioners,andthegeneral
public.WearguethatalongsidetheCampbelleffort,aprogramofresearchof
newcrimepreventionandinterventionexperimentsandquasi-experiments
must be initiated. These need to be evaluated using the most rigorous
research designs, involve large samples, have long-term follow-up periods,
and include cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness analyses. These new studies
should be initiated in many Western countries.
Itisawell-knownfactthathavingconvincingresearchevidenceandhav-
ing it influence policy and practice are two very different matters. How to
overcomesomeofthemisconceivedpoliticalandpolicybarrierstogetmoreof
what works in preventing crime into policy and practice is by no means an
easytask,butfortunatelyithasreceivedsomeattentioninvariousacademic
disciplines,criminology included.
Inthefinalanalysis,agreatdealofworkneedstobedone—byresearchers,
policymakers,practitioners,andpoliticians(innoorderofimportance)—to
achievethewell-intentionedyetloftygoalofusingthehighest-qualityscien-
tificevidenceinthedevelopmentofpublicpolicyandpracticeforthepreven-
tionofcrime.WeviewthisspecialissueofTheAnnalsasanimportantstep
towardthisgoal.Ofcourse,shoulditspuracademicinterest,encouragemore
systematic reviews, inspire further innovation among policy makers and
practitioners,andignitetheinterestofpoliticians,thesetoowillbeimportant
effects.
DAVID P.FARRINGTON
BRANDON C.WELSH
Notes
1.WewishtopersonallythankJerryLeenotonlyforhissponsorshipofthisimportantevent
but also for his unwavering support of an evidence-based approach to preventing crime and
buildingsafercommunities.WearegratefultoLawrenceShermanforhelpingtoorganizethis
event (with David Farrington) and to Charles Wellford and his staff (especially Cynthia
Mewborn)fortheirtop-ratecoordinationandadministrationoftheconference.Specialthanks