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377 Pages·2009·2.98 MB·English
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The Accidental Guerrilla This page intentionally left blank The Accidental Guerrilla Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One david kilcullen 1 2009 1 Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offi ces in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Copyright © 2009 by David Kilcullen Published in North America by Oxford University Press, Inc. 198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016 www.oup.com Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Kilcullen, David. The accidental guerrilla : fi ghting small wars in the midst of a big one / David Kilcullen. p. cm Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-19-536834-5 1. Guerrilla warfare. 2. Counterinsurgency. 3. Military history, Modern—20th century. 4. Military history, Modern—21st century. 5. Afghan War, 2001–06. Iraq War, 2003–07. War on Terrorism, 2001–08. United States—Military policy. I. Title. II. Title: Accidental guerrilla U240. K49 2009 355.4'25—dc22 2008054870 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper Contents List of Abbreviations vii Acknowledgments xi Preface xiii Prologue: West Java, December 1996 xxi 1 The Accidental Guerrilla 1 2 “The Crazies Will Kill Them”: Afghanistan, 2006–2008 39 3 “The Twenty-First Day”: Iraq during the Surge, 2007 115 4 “Terrain, Tribes and Terrorists”: Confl icts from Indonesia to Europe 186 5 “Turning an Elephant into a Mouse”: Beyond the War on Terrorism 263 Conclusion 291 A Note on Sources and Methodology 303 Notes 307 Index 341 This page intentionally left blank List of Abbreviations ADZ A fghan Development Zones (ISAF development and security project) AFF A meriya Freedom Fighters (Iraqi tribal fi ghters opposed to AQI) ANA Afghan National Army ANAP Afghan National Auxiliary Police ANCOP Afghan National Civil Order Police ANDS Afghan National Development Strategy ANP Afghan National Police ANSF Afghan National Security Forces AQ al Qa’ida AQI al Qa’ida in Iraq (Iraqi AQ affi liate) ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations AUSAID Australian Agency for International Development BCT brigade combat team (United States Army) BRN Barisan Revolusi Nasional (Patani Malay Muslim guerrilla movement) BRN-C Barisan Revolusi Nasional Coordinasi (successor movement to BRN) CERP Commander’s Emergency Response Program (rapid aid/devel- opment funds for counterinsurgency) CFC–A Combined Forces Command–Afghanistan CIA Central Intelligence Agency CIDA Canadian International Development Agency CLC concerned local citizens CN counternarcotics CNRT Conselho Nacional de Resistência Timorense (Timorese National Resistance Council) CPA Coalition Provisional Authority DAC District Advisory Council (Iraq) DEA Drug Enforcement Administration (United States) DFAT Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (Australia) DFID Department for International Development (United Kingdom) DI Dar’ul Islam (Indonesian separatist Muslim guerrilla movement) DOD Department of Defense (United States) DOS Department of State (United States) viii List of Abbreviations EFP Explosively-formed Projectile (especially lethal form of IED) EPRT Embedded Provincial Reconstruction Team FALINTIL Forças Armadas da Libertação Nacional de Timor-Leste FATA F ederally Administered Tribal Areas (central region of the Afghanistan-Pakistan frontier) FCO Foreign and Commonwealth Offi ce (United Kingdom) FID foreign internal defense (military technique of indirect sup- port to at-risk government) FRETILIN F rente Revolucionaria de Timor Leste Independente (Timorese guerrilla movement) FSP F orça Sigurança Popular (People’s Security Force; CNRT security organization) GAM Gerakan Aceh Merdeka GIA Groupe Islamique Armée (Algerian terrorist group) GOA Government of Afganistan GSPC G roupe Salafi ste pour La Prédication et le Combat (North African al Qa’ida affi liate) HiG Hizb-i Islami Gulbuddin HUT Hizb-ut Tahrir IED improvised explosive device INL International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Bureau (U.S. State Department) INP Iraqi National Police INTERFET International Force East Timor IO information operations IRD Information Research Department (of the FCO) ISAF International Security Assistance Force (Afghanistan) ISI I nter-Services Intelligence Directorate (Pakistani intelli- gence service) ISR intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance JAM Jaysh al-Mahdi JI Jema’ah Islamiyah (Southeast Asian AQ Affi liate) JI Jemaat e-Islami (Pakistani political party) JIATF Joint Interagency Task Force KMTC Kabul Military Training Center KOPASSUS Komando Pasukan Khusus (Indonesian special forces) LeT Lasykar e-Tayyiba (Pakistani terrorist group) LZ Landing Zone MANPADS man-portable air defense system List of Abbreviations ix MNC-I Multi-National Corps—Iraq MNF-I Multinational Force—Iraq MSF Medecins Sans Frontieres NAC Neighborhood Advisory Council (Iraq) NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NDS National Directorate of Security (Afghan intelligence service) NGO Nongovernmental organization NII Negara Islam Indonesia NSS 2002 National Security Strategy of the United States 2002 NWFP North-West Frontier Province PRT provincial reconstruction team PULO Patani United Liberation Organization PUPJI P edoman Umum Perjuangan Jema’ah Islamiyah (General Guide to the Jemaah Islamiyah Struggle—JI strategy document) QDR Quadrennial Defense Review QJBR T anzim Qaidat al-Jihad fi l Bilad ar-Rafi dayn (former name of AQI) R Bureau for Public Diplomacy (U.S. State Department) RCT regimental combat team (United States Marines) RPG rocket propelled grenade RPKAD R esimen Para-Kommando Angkatan Darat (Indonesian Army Airborne Forces) RTF reconstruction task force SAI Sahawa al-‘Iraq (the Iraqi Awakening:tribal revolt against AQI) SAM surface-to-air missile SASR Special Air Service Regiment (Australia) SOA Sons of Anbar SOF special operations forces SOFA Status of Forces Agreement TNI Tentara Nasional Indonesia (Indonesian military) TNSM Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi UNAMA United Nations Assistance Mission for Afghanistan UNAMI United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq UNTAET United Nations Transitional Authority in East Timor USAID United States Agency for International Development USIA United States Information Agency (abolished 1999) USM–I United States Mission–Iraq UW unconventional warfare

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data. Kilcullen, David .. porting my analysis of the conflict environment to make the argument worth setting out in
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