The 2012 French Presidential Elections: The Inevitable Alternation

228 Pages·2013·1.256 MB·English

by  Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi (auth.)

The Palgrave Macmillan
The 2012 French Presidential
Elections
The Inevitable Alternation
Jocelyn Evans
Gilles Ivaldi
FrenchPolitics,SocietyandCulture
GeneralEditor:JocelynEvans,ProfessorofPolitics,UniversityofLeeds,UK.
Francehasalwaysfascinatedoutsideobservers.Now,thecountryisundergoingaperiodofprofound
transformation.FranceisfacedwitharapidlychanginginternationalandEuropeanenvironment
anditishavingtorethinksomeofitsmostbasicsocial,politicalandeconomicorthodoxies.As
elsewhere,thereispressuretoconform.Andyet,whileFranceisrespondinginwaysthatareno
doubtfamiliartopeopleinotherEuropeancountries,itisalsomanagingtomaintainelementsof
itslong-standingdistinctiveness.Overall,itremainsaplacethatisnotexactlycommelesautres.
ThisnewseriesexaminesallaspectsofFrenchpolitics,societyandculture.Insodoingitfocuseson
thechangingnatureoftheFrenchsystemaswellastheestablishedpatternsofpolitical,socialand
culturallife.Contributorstotheseriesareencouragedtopresentnewandinnovativearguments
sothattheinformedreadercanlearnandunderstandmoreaboutoneofthemostbeguilingand
compellingofallEuropeancountries.
Titlesinclude:
GillAllwoodandKhursheedWadia
GENDERANDPOLICYINFRANCE
DavidS.BellandJohnGaffney(editors)
THEPRESIDENTSOFTHEFRENCHFIFTHREPUBLIC
SylvainBrouard,AndrewM.AppletonandAmyG.Mazur(editors)
THEFRENCHFIFTHREPUBLICATFIFTY
BeyondStereotypes
JuneBurnham
POLITICIANS,BUREAUCRATSANDLEADERSHIPINORGANIZATIONS
LessonsfromRegionalPlanninginFrance
TonyChaferandEmmanuelGodin(editors)
THEENDOFTHEFRENCHEXCEPTION?
DeclineandRevivalofthe‘FrenchModel’
JeanK.Chalaby
THEDEGAULLEPRESIDENCYANDTHEMEDIA
StatismandPublicCommunications
PepperD.Culpepper,BrunoPalierandPeterA.Hall(editors)
CHANGINGFRANCE
ThePoliticsthatMarketsMake
GordonD.Cumming
FRENCHNGOsINTHEGLOBALERA
France’sInternationalDevelopmentRole
DavidDrake
FRENCHINTELLECTUALSANDPOLITICSFROMTHEDREYFUSAFFAIRTOTHEOCCUPATION
DavidDrake
INTELLECTUALSANDPOLITICSINPOST-WARFRANCE
JocelynEvansandGillesIvaldi
THE2012FRENCHPRESIDENTIALELECTIONS
TheInevitableAlternation
JohnGaffney
POLITICALLEADERSHIPINFRANCE
FromCharlesdeGaulletoNicolasSarkozy
GraemeHayes
ENVIRONMENTALPROTESTANDTHESTATEINFRANCE
DavidJ.Howarth
THETOEUROPEANMONETARYUNION
AndrewKnapp
PARTIESANDTHEPARTYSYSTEMINFRANCE
ADisconnectedDemocracy?
MichaelS.Lewis-Beck(editor)
THEFRENCHVOTER
BeforeandAfterthe2002Elections
MichaelLewis-Beck,RichardNadeauandÉricBélanger
FRENCHPRESIDENTIALELECTIONS
JohnLoughlin
SUBNATIONALGOVERNMENT
TheFrenchExperience
MairiMacleanandJosephSzarka
FRANCEONTHEWORLDSTAGE
MairiMaclean,CharlesHarveyandJonPress
BUSINESSELITESANDCORPORATEGOVERNANCEINFRANCEANDTHEUK
SusanMilnerandNickParsons(editors)
REINVENTINGFRANCE
StateandSocietyintheTwenty-FirstCentury
RainbowMurray
PARTIES,GENDERQUOTASANDCANDIDATESELECTIONINFRANCE
GinoG.Raymond(editor)
THESARKOZYPRESIDENCY
BreakingtheMould?
GinoG.Raymond
THEFRENCHCOMMUNISTPARTYDURINGTHEFIFTHREPUBLIC
ACrisisofLeadershipandIdeology
PaulSmith
THESENATEOFTHEFIFTHFRENCHREPUBLIC
FrancescaVassallo
FRANCE,SOCIALCAPITALANDPOLITICALACTIVISM
SarahWaters
SOCIALMOVEMENTSINFRANCE
TowardsaNewCitizenship
ReubenY.Wong
THEEUROPEANIZATIONOFFRENCHFOREIGNPOLICY
FranceandtheEUinEastAsia
FrenchPolitics,SocietyandCulture
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The 2012 French
Presidential Elections
The Inevitable Alternation
Jocelyn Evans
ProfessorofPolitics,UniversityofLeeds,UK
and
Gilles Ivaldi
ResearcherinPolitics,UniversitédeNiceSophia-Antipolis,France
©JocelynEvansandGillesIvaldi2013
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2013 978-1-137-01163-3
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Contents
ListofTables,FiguresandMaps viii
Acknowledgements xi
1 Introduction 1
2 KnownsandUnknowns:IdentifyingtheCriticalSpaces
ofthe2012Elections 12
3 PartyCooperationandConflict:Actors’Competitive
Positioning 40
4 CandidateSelectionProcessesandEffects 65
5 Issues,PolicyDebatesandCandidateValence 88
6 CampaignEvents 114
7 PollsandVP-Functions:ForecastingtheElections 129
8 TheLegislativeElectionsofJune2012 151
9 Conclusion 181
Notes 190
References 201
Index 207
vii
Tables, Figures and Maps
Tables
1.1 Resultsoffirstandsecondroundsofpresidential
elections(2012) 7
2.1 Green/EELVvotingtrendsinnationalelections
(1974–2012) 23
2.2 UDF/MODEMvotingtrendsinnationalelections
(1974–2012) 24
2.3 First-roundpresidentialvotebyoccupationalstrata
in2012 36
3.1 Effectivenumberoffirst-roundpresidentialcandidates
(1995–2012) 41
3.2 Averagevotingtransfersbetweenthefirstand
secondroundsofthe2012presidentialinpre-and
post-electionpolls 63
4.1 Candidateselectionproceduresin2012 67
4.2 SummaryofEELVcandidates’popularitiesasofJune2011 68
4.3 ResultsofthePSprimaryelectionsof9and
16October2011 69
4.4 Final-weekprimarypollsforthePSnominationin2011 76
4.5 Percentagesofleadonpolicyandvalencecredibility
pollingitemsinthePSprimarycandidatesamong
left-wingsupportersbypre-/post-arrestperiod 85
5.1 Socio-economicattitudesinthepresidentialcampaign 91
5.2 Comparedcomponentsofpresidentialcredibilityin
HollandeandSarkozy 98
5.3 AttitudestowardsimmigrationandIslambyideological
affiliation 105
6.1 Importanceofcandidateattributesamongstsupportersof
run-offcandidates 120
7.1 Summaryofexanteforecastsof2012elections 133
7.2 Final-weekpollsandofficialresults 136
7.3 Pollingestimatesonelectionnight(22April2012) 139
7.4 Averagepollingaccuracybypollingorganisation 143
7.5 Pollingaccuracyacrosselectoralcampaign 144
viii
ListofTables,FiguresandMaps ix
7.6 Parameterestimatesforfullmodelforecasts(1981–2007) 146
7.7 Predictedandobservedvoteoutcomesin2012(%oftotal
votersregisteredandofvotescast) 147
7.8 Comparisonofindividualerrorsin2007forecastand
2012forecasts 148
8.1 Candidatesperconstituencyinlegislativeelections
(1958–2012) 153
8.2 Sociologicalandpoliticalprofileofabstainersin2012
legislativeelections(firstround) 161
8.3 Resultsofthe2012legislativeelections 167
8.4 Actualvotecountsinthefirstandsecondroundsof
1stcirconscription,Charente-Maritime 177
Figures
2.1 INSEEquarterlyunemploymentrate(2003–2012) 14
2.2 Comparativepre-electionpresidentialpopularities
(1981–2012) 17
2.3 Sarkozy’spresidentialpopularity(2007–2012) 18
2.4 FavourablepopularityratingsforthePSin
pre-electionyears 19
2.5 Trendsinpublicperceptionsofeconomicprosperityin
France(1999–2011) 28
2.6 PublicopiniontrustoftheLeftandtheRight(2009–2011) 30
2.7 Abstentioninpresidentialandlegislativeelectionsin
France(1958–2012) 31
2.8 Polarisationasthetotalsizeoftheradicalvotein
presidentialelections(1974–2012) 34
3.1 PresidentialcandidatesinFrance(1965–2012) 51
3.2 First-roundpresidentialvotingintentionsforHollande,
MélenchonandtheLeft:November2011–April2012 56
5.1 Salienceofimmigrationandinsecurityissuesbeforeand
aftertheToulouseshootings 91
5.2 Salienceofenvironmentalissuesbeforeandafterthe
Fukushimanuclearplantaccident 111
6.1 RealGDPgrowthrate(2003–2012) 118
7.1 Pollingaccuracyacrosstime(unweighted) 141
7.2 Pollingaccuracyacrosstime(weighted) 142
8.1 Legislativeturnoutinpost-warFrance 160
8.2 RelationshipbetweenSarkozyfirst-roundvoteand
first-roundlegislativeabstentionbydepartment 163