Technological Innovation and Public Policy: The Automotive Industry

221 Pages·2011·1.474 MB·English

by  Hiroaki Miyoshi, Masanobu Kii (eds.)

Palgrave Macmillan Asian Business Series Centre for the
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HARMONY VERSUS CONFLICT IN ASIAN BUSINESS
Managing in a Turbulent Era
Hiroaki Miyoshi and Yoshifumi Nakata (eds)
HAVE JAPANESE FIRMS CHANGED?
The Lost Decade
Glenn D. Hook and Harukiyo Hasegawa (eds)
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Politics, Security, Economics and Business
Diane Rosemary Sharpe and Harukiyo Hasegawa (eds)
NEW HORIZONS IN ASIAN MANAGEMENT
Emerging Issues and Critical Perspectives
Hiroaki Miyoshi and Masanobu Kii (eds)
TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION AND PUBLIC POLICY
The Automotive Industry
Tan Yi
THE OIL AND GAS SERVICE INDUSTRY IN ASIA
A Comparison of Business Strategies
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Technological Innovation
and Public Policy
The Automotive Industry
Edited by
Hiroaki Miyoshi
and
Masanobu Kii
Selection and editorial content © Hiroaki Miyoshi and Masanobu Kii 2011
Individual chapters © the contributors 2011
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2011 978-0-230-23076-7
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this
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First published 2011 by
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ISBN 978-1-349-31169-9 ISBN 978-0-230-30829-9 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9780230308299
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Technological innovation and public policy : the automotive industry /
edited by Hiroaki Miyoshi and Masanobu Kii.
p. cm.
Includes index.
1. Automobile industry and trade – Government policy – Japan.
2. Automobile industry and trade – Technological innovations – Japan.
3. Transportation and state – Japan. I. Miyoshi, Hiroaki, 1960–
II. Kii, Masanobu.
HD9710.J32T43 2011
338.4(cid:2)76292220952—dc22 2011012068
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11
Contents
List of Tables vi
List of Figures viii
Preface xi
List of Contributors xiii
1 Introduction 1
Hiroaki Miyoshi and Masanobu Kii
2 Automotive Technology and Public Policy in Japan:
A Historical Survey 15
Masayuki Sano, Masanobu Kii, and Hiroaki Miyoshi
3 Costs and Benefits of Fuel Economy Regulations:
A Comparative Analysis of Automotive Fuel Economy
Standards and the Corresponding Benefits for Consumers 44
Masanobu Kii and Hiroaki Miyoshi
4 Future Directions for Fuel Efficiency Policy: Evolving from
Fuel Efficiency Standards toward Indirect Regulations 75
Hiroaki Miyoshi, Masayuki Sano, Masanobu Kii, and Yuko Akune
5 Economics of Intelligent Transport Systems: Crafting
Government Policy to Achieve Optimal
Market Penetration 105
Hiroaki Miyoshi and Masanobu Kii
6 Optimal Market Penetration Rates of VICS 126
Hiroaki Miyoshi and Masayoshi Tanishita
7 Market Penetration of Safety-R elated ITSs 146
Masanobu Kii and Hiroaki Miyoshi
8 Transport Problems and Policy Solutions in China 170
Sun Lin
Appendix: Vehicle Categories and Specifications 198
Index 199
v
Tables
2.1 Overview of automotive fuel economy standards 29
2.2 Development sectors for ITSs in Japan 32
3.1 Advantages and disadvantages assumed for each
regulatory approach 53
3.2 Fuel consumption reduction rates and technology costs 56
3.3 Estimated cost function 59
3.4 Penetration rates for fuel efficiency technologies in 2004 60
3.5 Average fuel efficiency improvement due to technologies
in 2004 60
3.6 Estimated parameters of probability density functions 62
3.7 Fuel economy improvement rates necessary to achieve
the 2015 target 63
3.8 Fuel economy improvement rates and vehicle price
increases for CAFE and weight class regulations 65
4.1 Laws addressing automotive technological policy
(including laws covering basic, safety, environmental
pollution, noise pollution, and vibration restrictions) 77
4.2 L aws addressing automotive technological policy
(including laws covering global environmental issues,
roads, and other matters) 79
4.3 Impact of fuel economy technologies 85
4.4 Automotive taxes in Japan 88
4.5 The new green tax system (passenger car) 92
6.1 Values used to determine parameters in the
distribution of travel time costs for passenger cars 130
6.2 Values used to calculate parameters in the distribution
of travel time costs for trucks 131
6.3 Values of curvature parameters for the base case and
the comparison cases 131
6.4 N umber of vehicles for each type at the end of
March 2008 133
6.5 Values of the travel time reduction rate parameters
at which the market penetration rate coincides
with the optimal penetration rate in the various
comparison cases 141
vi
List of Tables vii
7.1 Accident-a voidance performance of car- to-c ar and
car-t o-i nfrastructure system technologies 154
7.2 Urban population characteristics and accident rates 156
8.1 S tandards imposed by the ‘Limits on Fuel Consumption
for Passenger Cars’ 176
8.2 Revisions to consumption tax rates on passenger cars
in China 177
8.3 Progress on limiting vehicular pollutant emissions
in China 184
8.4 M ajor policies aimed at alleviating the externalities of
vehicle transportation 192
Figures
2.1 History of intramural R&D expenditures in the
Japanese automobile industry 16
2.2 Passenger- car population in Japan since 1945 18
2.3 Compliance with environmental standards
for NO and SPM as measured by Air Pollution
2
Monitoring Stations 23
2.4 Current status of and future targets for battery
performance 36
3.1 Observed sales- average fuel economy of selected
companies and the CAFE standard in the US 50
3.2 Japanese fuel economy standards for 2015 51
3.3 Price increase versus fuel consumption reduction rate 57
3.4 Estimated cost functions 58
3.5 Trend in sales distribution by weight class 61
3.6 Vehicle price increase versus assumed probability of
non- compliance 64
3.7 Vehicle price versus improvement rate 66
3.8 Net consumer savings versus fuel consumption
reduction rate and the effect of vehicle price 70
3.9 N et consumer savings versus fuel consumption
reduction rate and the effect of gasoline price 70
3.10 Fuel consumption targets by IW class 71
4.1 Structure of technological policy committees
within JAMA 81
4.2 Impact of revisions to the automobile tax system 99
5.1 Travel time reduction rate versus penetration rate
for traffic information (1) 109
5.2 Travel time reduction rate versus penetration rate
for traffic information (2) 109
5.3 Travel time reduction rate versus penetration rate
for traffic information (3) 110
5.4 Travel time savings benefit versus VICS penetration rate 111
5.5 Reduction in accident frequency versus penetration
rate for the car- to-i nfrastructure system, in the
dual-i nfo case 114
viii
List of Figures ix
5.6 Reduction in accident frequency versus penetration
rate for the car- to-i nfrastructure system, in the
single- info case 115
5.7 Reduction in accident frequency versus penetration
rate for the car- to-c ar system 116
5.8 Classification of benefits of the car-t o-i nfrastructure
system, in the dual-i nfo case 117
5.9 Classification of benefits of the car-t o-c ar system 119
5.10 Optimal penetration rate for a system with positive
network externality 120
6.1 E xpected equilibrium demand curve (ED), marginal
value of benefit for all users (MUB), and marginal
social benefit (MSB) 137
6.2 Optimal penetration rate and market penetration
rate at various values of the travel time reduction
rate parameters 138
6.3 Taxes or subsidies required to realize the optimal
penetration rate as a function of the travel time
reduction rate parameters (1) 140
6.4 Taxes or subsidies required to realize the optimal
penetration rate as a function of the travel time
reduction rate parameters (2) 140
6.5 Dynamical stability of the optimal penetration
rate as a function of the travel time reduction
rate parameters 142
7.1 Linear model of urban population density 151
7.2 Meeting point of two vehicle trajectories 152
7.3 Spatial distribution of head-o n crossings 153
7.4 P robability density distribution for value lost in
fatal traffic accidents 156
7.5 M arket penetration rate and optimal penetration
rate (car-t o-c ar system) 158
7.6 B enefit to users, benefit to non- users, and
expected equilibrium demand curve as a function
of on- board unit penetration rate (cid:68) 160
7.7 Market penetration rate and optimal penetration rate
(car-t o-i nfrastructure system) 161
7.8 Expected equilibrium demand curves for dual- mode
on-b oard units, assuming three different values of the
roadside communicator range 162