Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2002: Vol 69 Table of Contents

11 Pages·2002·1.6 MB·English

Technological Forecasting and Social Change
An International Journal
Volume 69, Number 1, January 2002
Contents
SOMNATH MISHRA Matching of Technological Forecasting
S.G. DESHMUKH Technique to a Technology
PREM VRAT
(New Delhi, India)
GORDON R. RICHARDS A Simulation Model with Endogenous
(Santa Clara, CA, USA) Technical Advance: Information Technology
and Increasing Returns from Research
JASON Z. YIN Relating Learning Capability to the
(South Orange, NJ, USA) Success of Computer-Integrated
Manufacturing
FANG-MEI TSENG Combining Neural Network Model 71
HSIAO-CHENG YU with Seasonal Time Series ARIMA
GWO-HSIUNG TZENG Model
(Hsinchu, Taiwan)
PRASOPCHOKE PRAMONGKIT Productivity Growth and Learning 89
TEAY SHAWYUN Potentials of Thai Industry
BOONMARK SIRINAOVAKUL
(Bangkok, Thailand)
Book Review
NAWAZ SHARIF
Science, Technology, and Innovation 103
(Adelphi, MD, USA)
Policy: Opportunities and Challenges
for the Knowledge Economy
(Pedro Conceicao, David Gibson,
Manuel Heitor and Syed Shariq)
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
An International Journal
Volume 69, Number 2, February 2002
Contents
HENRIK BRUUN Scenarios for Coping with Contingency: The Case
JANNE HUKKINEN of Aquaculture in the Finnish Archipelago Sea
ERLAND EKLUND
(Finland)
EDWARD B. ROBERTS Managerial Determinants of Industrial R&D
(Cambridge, MA, USA) Performance: An Analysis of the Global
PAULO ROBERTO BELLOTTI Chemicals/Materials Industry
(Sao Paolo, Brazil)
ROBERT W. BLANNING Political Event Analysis Using Group
(Nashville, TN, USA) Support Systems
BRUCE A. REINIG
(San Diego, CA, USA)
ROBERT N. McGRATH A Study of NASA’s Vision for the Future
(Daytona Beach, FL, USA) of Air Travel
PHILIP HANS FRANSES Testing for Residual Autocorrelation in Growth
(Rotterdam, Netherlands) Curve Models
STEVE LOHR From My Perspective
A Time Out for Technophilia
Book Reviews
LUIGI TOMA Managing New Product Development and Innovation.
(Washington, DC, USA) A Microeconomic Toolbox
(Hariolf Grupp and Shlomo Maital)
FRED PHILLIPS Managing Technical Risk: Understanding
(Beaverton, OR, USA) Private Sector Decision Making on Early
Stage Technology-Based Projects
(Lewis M. Branscomb, Kenneth P. Morse and
Michael J. Roberts)
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
An International Journal
Volume 69, Number 3, April 2002
Contents
MARISA MAIO MACKAY Multiple Method Forecasts for Discontinuous
MIKE METCALFE Innovations
(Adelaide, Australia)
MARIANELA CARRILLO A New Approach to Modelling Sigmoidal Curves
JOSE M. GONZALEZ
(Canary Islands, Spain)
NADEJDA M. VICTOR DRAMs as Model Organisms for Study of
JESSE H. AUSUBEL _ Technological Evolution
(New York, USA)
COKKI VERSLUIS DRAMs, Fiber and Energy Compared with Three
(The Netherlands) Models of Market Penetration
BOB VAN DER ZWAAN __ Nuclear Energy: Tenfold Expansion or Phase-out?
(Amsterdam, The Netherlands)
Column
HAROLD A. LINSTONE From My Perspective
(Portland,OR, USA) InfoMesa
Book Review
TESSALENO DEVEZAS | Princliples of Forecasting. A Handbook for
(Covilha, Portugal) | Researchers and Practitioners
(J. Scott Armstrong)
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
An International Journal
Volume 69, Number 4, May 2002
Contents
TESSALENO C. DEVEZAS The Nonlinear Dynamics of Technoeconomic Systems:
(Covilha, Portugal) An Informational Interpretation
JAMES T. CORREDINE
(Middle Island, NY, USA)
GEORGE MODELSKI “Democratization in Long Perspective” Revisited
GARDNER PERRY III
(Washington, DC, USA)
THEODORE MODIS Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change
(Geneva, Switzerland)
VINISH KATHURIA Technology Transfer for GHG Reduction: A Framework
(Goteborg, Sweden) with Application to India
Column
YEHEZKEL DROR From My Perspective
(Jerusalem, Israel) Lucifer Smiles
Book Review
JOSEPH F. COATES Visions of the Future: 3 Books
(Washington, DC, USA) (J. Michael T. Thompson)
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
An International Journal
Volume 69, Number 5, June 2002
Contents
Special Issue: TF Highlights from ISF 2001.
Guest Editor: Alan L. Porter
ALAN L. PORTER The International Symposium on Forecasting 2001
(Atlanta, GA, USA)
RICHARD E. ALBRIGHT What Can Past Technology Forecasts Tell Us
(Morristown, NJ, USA) About the Future?
TIMOTHY ANDERSON Further Examination of Moore’s Law with Data
ROLF FARE Envelopment Analysis
SHAWNA GROSSKOPF
LANE INMAN
XIAOYU SONG
(Portland, OR, USA)
PAMELA H. KRAUSE The PROTEUS Project: Scenario-Based Planning
(Reston, VA, USA) in a Unique Organization
JOHN W. PETERSON Leveraging Technology Foresight to Create
(Lisle, IL, USA) Temporal Advantage
DONGHUA ZHU Automated Extraction and Visualization of Information
(Anhui, China) for Technological Intelligence and Forecasting
ALAN L. PORTER
(Atlanta, GA, USA)
Columns
JOSEPH F. COATES From My Perspective
(Washington, DC, USA) Utopia — An Obsolete Concept
JONATHAN G. KOOMEY From My Perspective
(Berkeley, CA, USA) Avoiding “The Big Mistake” in Forecasting
Technology Adoption
Book Reviews
HAROLD A. LINSTONE Proteus: Insights from 2020
(Pamela H. Krause, Michael S. Loescher
Chris Schroder and Charles W. Thomas)
HAROLD A. LINSTONE The Capacity to Govern: A Report to the Club of Rome
(Yehezkel Dror)
JOSEPH F. COATES Energy Needs, Choices, and Possibilities, Scenarios to 2050
(Washington, DC, USA) (Shell International)
KISH SHARMA Market-Oriented Technology Management
(Solano Beach, CA, USA) (Fred Y. Phillips)
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
An International Journal
Volume 69, Number 6, July 2002
Contents
Section I: Honoring Joseph F. Coates
HAROLD A. LINSTONE Introduction
ROBERT U. AYRES On Coates, Information Technology and Future Employment
(Fountainebleau Cedex, France)
GRAHAM T.T. MOLITOR Joe Coates —Tribute to a Master Practitioner
(Potomac, MD, USA)
ANDY HINES Raising the Bar of Professionalism in Futures Studies
(Midland, MI, USA)
MICHEL GODET Joseph F. Coates...or the Quiet Strength of Experience:
(Paris, France) A Personal Reminiscence
MICHEL GODET Unconventional Wisdom for the Future
(Paris, France)
ARTHUR B. SHOSTAK A Forecaster’s Forecaster
(Philadelphia, PA, USA)
ARTHUR B. SHOSTAK Computer Power and Union Prospects: CyberUnions or
(Philadelphia, PA, USA) Faux Unions?
HAROLD A. LINSTONE Joe Coates’ Perspective: Selected Quotations from his
TFSC Columns
Section II:
DON E. KASH Emerging Patterns of Complex Technological Innovation
(Fairfax, VA, USA)
ROBERT RYCROFT
(Washington, DC, USA)
HANS WERNER GOTTINGER Modeling Stochastic Innovation Races
(Sundu-Hobe, Japan)
OSMO KUUSI Technological Generalizations and Leitbilder—the
(Helsinki, Finland) Anticipation of Technological Opportunities
MARTIN MEYER
(Leuven, Belgium)
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
An International Journal
Volume 69, Number 7, September 2002
Contents
Special Issue: Technology Policy and Innovation
Guest Editors: Pedro Concei¢gao and Manuel V. Heitor
PEDRO CONCEICAO Knowledge Interaction Towards Inclusive Learning:
MANUEL V. HEITOR
Promoting Systems of Innovation and Competence Building
(Lisbon, Portugal)
EDUARDO B. VIOTTI National Learning Systems: A New Approach to Technological
(Brasilia, DF, Brazil) Change in Late Industrializing Economies and Evidence
from the Cases of Brazil and South Korea
REJEAN LANDRY Does Social Capital Determine Innovation? To What Extent?
NABIL AMARA
MOKTAR LAMARI
(Quebec, PQ, Canada)
JUAN C. FERNANDEZ-ARROYABE Principles for the Design of Management Control Systems
(Pozuelo de Alarcon, Madrid, Spain) in Knowledge Networks: Experiences Involving the
NIEVES ARRANZ European Technology Networks
(Paseo de Senda del Rey, Madrid, Spain)
PEDRO OLIVEIRA
Achieving Competitive Capabilities in E-Services
ALEDA V. ROTH
WENDELL GILLAND
(Chapel Hill, NC, USA)
PEDRO FERREIRA Optical Networks and the Future of Broadband Services
WILLIAM LEHR
LEE McKNIGHT
(Cambridge, MA, USA)
Column
HAROLD A. LINSTONE From My Perspective
(Portland, OR) Military Technology and Its Frustrations
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
An International Journal
Volume 69, Number 8, November 2002
Contents
KRISTIAN BORCH Commercial Use of GM Crop Technology: Identifying
BIRGITTE RASMUSSEN the Drivers Using Life Cycle Methodology in a
(Roskilde, Denmark) Technology Foresight Framework
PAO-CHENG CHANG Forecast of Development Trends in Taiwan’s
CHIEN-PIN WANG Machinery Industry
BENJAMIN J.C. YUAN
KAI-TING CHUANG
(Taipei, Taiwan)
SARAH KOVOOR-MISRA Boxed-in: Top Managers’ Propensities During Crisis
(Denver, CO, USA) Issue Diagnosis
DANIEL SPRENG Technology Assessment: Impact of High-Tech
(Zurich, Switzerland) Engineering Research on Energy Consumption
ANTONIO DE FREITAS FILHO Strategic Planning in Public R&D Organizations for
MARIA LUCIA D’APICE PAEZ Agribusiness: Brazil and the United States of America
WENCESLAU J. GOEDERT
(Brasilia, DF, Brazil)
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
An International Journal
Volume 69, Number 9, December 2002
Contents
Special Issue: The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Guest Editor: Dimitris Kyriakou
DIMITRIS KYRIAKOU Prospective Technological Studies — Overview 849
(Sevilla, Spain)
W. BRANSON Economic Dimensions of Prospective Technological 851
J.-J. LAFFONT Studies at the Joint Research Centre of the
R. SOLOW European Commission
D. ULPH
C. VON WEIZSACKER
D. KYRIAKOU
(Sevilla, Spain)
RUUD SMITS Innovation Studies in the 21st Century:
(Utrecht, The Netherlands) Questions from a User’s Perspective
GIORGIO DI PIETRO Technological Change, Labor Markets, and
(Roma, Italy) ‘Low-Skill, Low-Technology Traps’
DIMITRIS KYRIAKOU Technology and Sustainable Growth: Towards a Synthesis
(Sevilla, Spain)
NIKOLAUS THUMM Europe’s Construction of a Patent System for
(Sevilla, Spain) Biotechnological Inventions: An Assessment
of Industry Views
HENK J. VAN ZUYLEN Strategies for European Innovation Policy in the
(Delft, The Netherlands) Transport Field
K. MATTHIAS WEBER
(Seibersdorf, Austria)
Book Reviews
J.A. ALIC Athena Unbound: The Advancement of Women
(Washington, DC, USA) in Science and Technology
(Henry Etzkowitz, Carol Kemelgor and Brian Uzzi)
JOHN W. PETERSON The Dynamics of Knowledge Regimes: Technology,
(Lisle, IL, USA) Culture and National Competitiveness in the USA and Japan
(Dengjian Jin)
Volume 69 Author Index
Volume 69 Book Review Index
Volume 69 Subject Index
Volume 69 Contents