Technical Addendum to the Community Assessment

152 Pages·2008·1.85 MB·English

Technical Addendum
to the
Community Assessment
for the
2028 Comprehensive Plan

Columbus Consolidated Government

November 2007

In partnership with and
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Technical Addendum November 2007

Table of Contents

I: Supporting Analysis of Data and Information

1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1
2 Population ...................................................................................................................... 2
2.1 Total Population ............................................................................................................................................. 2
2.2 Age Distribution ........................................................................................................................................... 10
2.3 Race & Ethnicity ........................................................................................................................................... 12
2.4 Living Arrangements .................................................................................................................................... 13
2.5 Income ............................................................................................................................................................ 13
3 Economic Development .............................................................................................. 17
3.1 Economic Base .............................................................................................................................................. 17
3.2 Population & Labor Force .......................................................................................................................... 24
3.3 Economic Resources .................................................................................................................................... 29
3.4 Economic Trends ......................................................................................................................................... 39
4 Housing ........................................................................................................................ 46
4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 46
4.2 Housing Types and Mix ............................................................................................................................... 46
4.3 Condition and Occupancy ........................................................................................................................... 48
4.4 Cost of Housing ............................................................................................................................................ 53
4.5 Cost-Burdened Households ........................................................................................................................ 55
4.6 Projected Population and Housing Need ................................................................................................. 59
4.7 Special Housing Needs ................................................................................................................................ 61
4.8 Jobs-Housing Balance .................................................................................................................................. 64
5 Natural and Cultural Resources .................................................................................. 69
5.1 Wetlands ......................................................................................................................................................... 69
5.2 Groundwater Recharge Areas ..................................................................................................................... 69
5.3 Water Supply Watersheds, Water Sources, and Water Quality ............................................................. 70
5.4 Steep Slopes ................................................................................................................................................... 75
5.5 Floodplains ..................................................................................................................................................... 75
5.6 Soils and Prime Agricultural Land ............................................................................................................. 76
5.7 Plant and Animal Habitats........................................................................................................................... 76
5.8 Greenspace ..................................................................................................................................................... 81
6 Community Facilities ................................................................................................. 106
6.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 106
6.2 Water Supply and Treatment .................................................................................................................... 106
6.3 Wastewater Treatment ............................................................................................................................... 108
6.4 Fire and Emergency Medical Services ..................................................................................................... 109
6.5 Public Safety................................................................................................................................................. 111
6.6 Parks and Recreation .................................................................................................................................. 114
6.7 Stormwater Management ........................................................................................................................... 120
6.8 Solid Waste Management........................................................................................................................... 122
6.9 Education ..................................................................................................................................................... 123
6.10 Hospitals and Other Public Health Facilities ......................................................................................... 129
6.11 Libraries ........................................................................................................................................................ 130
6.12 General Government Facilities ................................................................................................................. 132
6.13 Other Services ............................................................................................................................................. 133
6.14 Consistency with Service Delivery Strategy ............................................................................................ 134
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Technical Addendum November 2007
7 Intergovernmental Coordination ............................................................................... 135
7.1 Purpose ......................................................................................................................................................... 135
7.2 Coordination Partners ................................................................................................................................ 135
7.3 Existing Policy and Activities .................................................................................................................... 136
8 Transportation ........................................................................................................... 138
8.1 Streets, Roads and Highways .................................................................................................................... 138
8.2 Alternative Modes ....................................................................................................................................... 142
8.3 Parking Conditions ..................................................................................................................................... 144
8.4 Railroads, Trucking, Port Facilities, and Airports.................................................................................. 144
8.5 Planned Transportation Improvements .................................................................................................. 145
8.6 Transportation and Land Use Interaction .............................................................................................. 147

II. Atlas of Supportive Maps

Map 1-1: Planning Areas

Map 5-1: Wetlands
Map 5-2: Groundwater Recharge Areas
Map 5-3: Watersheds
Map 5-4: Steep Slopes
Map 5-5: Hydrology
Map 5-6: Prime Farmland
Map 5-7: Greenspace
Map 5-8: Cultural Resources

Map 6-1: Community and Educational Facilities
Map 6-2: Water Service Area
Map 6-3: Sewer Service Area

Map 8-1: Transportation Network
Map 8-2: Roadway Classification
Map 8-3: Deficient Bridges
Map 8-4: Public Transportation Facilities
Map 8-5: Bicycle and Pedestrian Facilities
Map 8-6: Transportation Improvement Projects
Map 8-7: Long Range Transportation Improvement Projects
Map 8-8: Transportation Level of Service

III. Related Reports

Fort Benning, Georgia, Anticipated Growth, 2007 through 2011

Comp Plan Update: Real Estate Analysis

IV. Supportive Data for Economic Development Section

Dun and Bradstreet Businesses in Columbus, GA by Zip Code
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Technical Addendum November 2007

1 Introduction
This Technical Addendum is an expansion upon the ―Analysis of Supportive Data and Information‖
initiated in the Community Assessment for the 2028 Comprehensive Plan. It represents an extensive
review of existing conditions in Columbus. It also validates issues and opportunities and supports
the character areas outlined in the Community Assessment. This analysis follows the Standards and
Procedures for Local Comprehensive Planning set by the Georgia Department of Community
Affairs, effective May 1, 2005.

This report describes current conditions in the County and metro area (when applicable) and
provides a likely forecast for the next twenty years, if policies are not altered. The data provided in
this document embodies an extensive review of past studies, available Census data, Columbus
Consolidated Government (CCG) records, and other relative data sources, with special attention
given to impacts of Fort Benning expansion. Methodology is discussed in greater deal within each
chapter, as data sources vary for each planning element.

For the purposes of the Comprehensive Plan, six planning areas have been identified. They are
referenced on a limited basis within Section 2, Population, but will play an important role in community
visioning as the Community Participation Plan is implemented (please see Community Participation
Program for more information). These planning areas were based upon an analysis of the similar
characteristics within adjacent geographic areas and finalized by the comprehensive planning team.
The Planning Areas Map (Map 1-1) along with all of the maps associated with this document can be
found in Section II, ―Atlas of Supportive Maps,‖ at the end of this document. Please cross-
reference the Community Assessment document for an executive summary-style report of
the major findings from this analysis.

In 2028, Columbus, GA will celebrate its 200th anniversary. From the beginning, Columbus
was planned as a gateway city because of its location: a regional retail hub and military post.
Those roots run deep.
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2 Population
2.1 Total Population
2.1.1 Recent Trends & Comparisons to Georgia & US
Population estimates are just that, estimates. The estimate for 2007 for Columbus is approximately
189,000 up from 185,000 in 2005. What is known is that population growth has been below 0.5
percent annually for the last 20 years and very likely has declined since 2000. One reason for the
decline is military deployments, which impact Ft. Benning operations and the local economy. The
County has faced these declines in every prior wartime period. Exacerbating what has been an old
problem are two new trends. One is the suburbanization of the metro area with more county
residents moving out to newer subdivisions in surrounding counties. Secondly, with higher
unemployment and a growing young population with more education, there is a steady net outflow
every year to the Atlanta area. This has resulted in an aging population, more so than the state.

Figures 2-1 and 2-2 provide the decadal censuses and most recent ―official‖ population estimate for
2005. The U.S. Census Bureau estimated that the county’s population was approximately 186
thousand in 2000, an increase of about 7,000 people over the 1990 Census. The county’s population
in July 1, 2005 was estimated at 185,799. The annualized growth rate for Columbus is well below
the state average caused by a significant inflow of people into North Georgia and the coastal areas
from other states.

Figure 2-3 focuses on shifting population patterns within the metro area. The data indicate that
Harris County, located north of Columbus, experienced the greatest population growth during the
1990s followed by Russell County, AL. These counties have relatively small populations. Harris
County has less than 15 percent of the population of Columbus and Russell is just over 25 percent.
Nevertheless, there is a significant suburbanization trend among the upper and upper middle
income, primarily white families away from the urban core. This trend is reflected in all of Georgia’s
metro areas.

Figure 2-1: Population Trends, 1980-2005
1980 1990 2000 2005
Columbus 170,108 179,278 186,291 185,799
Metro Area 239,196 243,072 274,624 282,495
Georgia 5,462,982 6,478,216 8,186,453 9,132,553
United States 226,545,805 248,709,873 281,421,906 296,507,061
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 2-2: Average Annual Growth Rates, Columbus and Georgia (Percent)
1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2005
Columbus 0.5 0.4 -0.1
Georgia 1.9 2.6 2.3
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis

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Figure 2-3: Population Trends, Metro Area, 1990 and 2000
County 1990 2000 % Change
1990 - 2000
Columbus 179,278 186,291 3.9
Chattahoochee, GA 16,934 14,882 -12.1
Harris, GA 17,788 23,695 33.2
Russell, AL 46,860 49,756 6.2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2.1.2 Future Projections- County & Sub-County
Future population in Columbus is partly a function of past trends and growth strategies that the
County implements over the coming years, as well as the underway expansion of Ft. Benning.
Because these factors are somewhat unpredictable, a range of population projections is included to
guide planning and growth management decisions.

Office of Planning and Budget
In 2005, the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget (OPB) created a report for the State of
Georgia and its counties on population projections through 2015. The report indicates that
Muscogee County [Columbus] will be one of 12 counties in Georgia in which half of the state’s
population will reside. Still, the OPB’s projections indicate that by 2015 Columbus’s residential
population projection will decrease by -2.1 percent with respect to the 2000 residential Census.
Their 2010 ―residential‖ population projection is 183,614 people and 182,367 people for the 2015
―residential‖ projection.

Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.
Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. is a consulting firm specializing in county level projections for all
U.S. counties. Figure 2-4 highlights their most recent projections that Columbus’s population will
grow at roughly the same pace as the 1980s and 1990s. By 2030, the Columbus’s population will
increase to 209 thousand people, an increase of 12.1 percent over the 2006 estimate. The 2015
projection of 194 thousand is certainly more positive than the OPB projections of approximately
182 thousand.

Figure 2-4: Woods & Poole Population Projections, Columbus, 2000-2030
Year Total (1000s) % Change
2000 186.5 -
2003 182.1 -2.3
2005 185.3 1.7
2006 186.5 0.7
2010 189.5 1.6
2015 193.7 2.2
2020 198.3 2.4
2025 203.3 2.6
2030 209.0 2.8
Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.

Our Projections - Scenarios
Columbus State University has developed several scenarios for Columbus’s projected population.
The first projection is based on historical population data collected from the U.S. Census Bureau,
births and deaths obtained from the Georgia Department of Human Resources, Division of Public
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Health, and county-to-county migration data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The
projection is based on the following identity: Pop =Pop+Births -Deaths +ExempIn -
t+1 t t+1 t+1 t+1
ExempOut , where t represents a base year and t+1 refers to the following time period. Annual
t+1
births, deaths, exemptions in, and exemptions out from 2006 to 2028 are projected fitting a linear
trend to historical data from 1994 to 2005 (consistent with the most complete dataset for all
variables). It also incorporates the expected total population expansion based on Ft. Benning’s
estimates in 2010 and 2011. Columbus is expected to receive approximately 60 percent of the total
increase in population from this expansion based on historic distributions of military and federal
civilian personnel. Figure 2-5 presents this projection.

Figure 2-5: Population Projection Scenario 1, Columbus, 2005-2028
Year Total (1000s) % Change
2005 185.3 -
2008 193.0 4.1%
2010 201.2 4.3%
2015 215.9 7.3%
2020 216.8 0.4%
2025 222.5 2.6%
2028 226.5 1.8%
Source: Columbus State University, Turner College of Business, November 2007.

Figure 2-6 presents Scenario 2. Scenario 2 was prepared by Columbus State University’s Turner
College of Business using their knowledge of local economic conditions and additional data from
IRS Taxpayer Migration Data and the RIMS economic analysis model.

Scenario 2 starts with the same military employment assumptions as Scenario 1 and uses the same
trends used in Scenario 1 for population births, deaths, and migration trends. However, the expected
population changes from the additional jobs at Ft. Benning are lower than Scenario 1 based on the
following major factors:

1) Some of the new jobs and people that Ft. Benning is hosting due to BRAC have already arrived
so they are incorporated in the general population as of 2007.

2) In Scenario 2 does not ―import‖ 100 percent of the new labor force who will fill jobs created by
BRAC. Instead, it is assumed that some of the new jobs created by Ft. Benning will be filled with
persons who are in the current unemployed labor force. In the region, only 45 percent of the area
population is in the workforce. This compares to 47 percent for Alabama and 50 percent for
Georgia. There are about 10,000 unemployed persons looking for work. This is an unemployment
rate that is substantially higher than the state unemployment rate and supports the need for the Fort
to hire locally whenever possible.

3) Scenario 2 also assumes that some military families will have two or more workers in the
household. This would include working spouses and teenage children who will take jobs locally
when they arrive in Columbus. The Department of Defense (DOD) has recently issued hiring
directives for spouse hiring preferences. In all, Scenario 2 assumes that there will be at least 3,700
military spouses and older teenagers looking for full or part-time work who will take local jobs.

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4) Scenario 2 uses a more commonly accepted household size, with fewer persons per household
than the data supplied by Ft. Benning. The military average household size estimate is high based
on Columbus migration patterns and is adjusted downward from 3.0 people per household to 2.3
people per household. Even this level is at the high end of the historic average household sizes.

5) Scenario 2 includes the additional jobs in Columbus that would result from expansion by Aflac
and the new KIA plant. It also includes a number of new jobs in the retail and service sectors that
would be ―induced‖ by the first round of new employment at these two major employers. However,
through 2016 additional local and regional population is not required provided the local population
has the requisite skills and wages are sufficiently high to induce people to enter the workforce.

Figure 2-6: Population Projection Scenario 2, Columbus, 2005-2028
Year Tot. Pop. % Growth
(1000s)
2005 185.3 -
2008 189.9 2.5%
2010 194.3 2.3%
2015 206.3 6.1%
2020 209.4 1.5%
2025 215.1 2.7%
2028 219.1 1.9%
Source: Columbus State University, Turner College of Business, November 2007.

Population Projections at the Planning District Level
Using the population projections from Scenario 2, people were allocated to planning districts (please
see explanation of planning areas in Section 1, Introduction) based on current population estimates and
recent trends illustrated in the IRS databases on taxpayers. Recent IRS data indicates a decline in
older core urban areas and growth in new more recently developed areas of Columbus. Three
factors contribute to this shift: one is the aging of existing households in older subdivisions; two is
commercialization of residences on main streets; and three is modern housing trends desired by
today’s young families. School district and retail facilities also play an important role for population
that move into an area including the population associated with the military turnover experienced in
Columbus. Figure 2-7 shows the projected population distribution over the planning period.

Figure 2-7: Population Projections based on Scenario 2
Planning Areas, 2006-2028 (in thousands)
Planning Area 1990 2000 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2028
A 25.9 33.6 34.0 35.4 36.7 40.3 41.2 42.9 44.1
B 11.2 14.6 18.9 20.3 21.6 25.2 26.1 27.8 29.0
C 23.2 21.1 19.7 20.4 21.1 22.8 23.3 24.2 24.8
D 36.1 33.3 31.0 31.7 32.4 34.1 34.6 35.5 36.1
E 57.1 60.5 59.0 59.2 59.4 59.8 60.0 60.2 60.4
F 13.7 11.8 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.1
Source: Columbus State University, Turner College of Business, November 2007.

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Recent Trends Reported by Internal Revenue Service
The population of Columbus has been flat for about 15 years. Nevertheless, there has been
substantial movement into and out of the county and within the county. There are very few data
sources for tracking these movements between census years. The U.S. Internal Revenue Service
(IRS) does keep track of taxpayer movements between counties and taxpayer information at the zip
code level. The IRS databases have developed zip code level data on taxpayers. While zip codes are
not a perfect match to the planning districts, the trends can be applied with judgment. These
databases approximate about 73 percent of the total population. Figure 2-8 cross references
planning districts and zip codes.

Figure 2-8: Planning District and Zip code Cross-reference
Planning Area ZIP Codes
A part of 31904, 31808, part of 31804, part of 31909, part of 31820
B 31820, 31829, 31801, part of 31909, part of 31907
C 31903, part of 31901, part of 31907
D part of 31906, part of 31904, part of 31901
E 31907, part of 31906, part of 31903
F part of 31904, part of 31901

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