Targeted Killing

106 Pages·2017·1.66 MB·English

CHARLES UNIVERSITY IN PRAGUE
Faculty of Social Sciences
Department of Security Studies
Master’s Studies in International Security Program

Nguyen, Nguyen Ba

Targeted Killing: How and When Intelligence Agencies Eliminate
Their Targets, and the Impact of Emerging Technologies
Master’s Thesis

Prague 2018
Author: Nguyen Ba Nguyen
Supervisor: Dr. Mark Galeotti, M.A., Ph.D.
Academic year: 2018
Abstract
History has shown that assassination could be wielded as an effective weapon in the pursuit of
interest, security and power. As the feudal age neared its end in Europe, nation states emerged.
Despite its pragmatic usefulness, assassination was considered unfit for this new form of
governance. States no longer sought to destroy one another as predicted by Thomas Hobbes,
but adhered to John Locke’s proposed values, which believed that states could mutually exist
as rivals. In this system which favored negotiation and settlements, it was difficult for
assassination to have a place. Yet at the start of the 21st century, assassination once again saw
employment. As of today, it is preferably referred to as targeted killing by its employers and
has become somewhat of a ‘new normal.’ Clearly, there must be certain permissive catalysts
that allowed this to happen. This master’s thesis firstly explores the ways the United States,
Israel and Russia conduct their assassination/targeted killing operations to present the unique
ways these states eliminate their enemies, and secondly pinpoints the permissive causes that
allowed these three super and great powers of assassination to transform the international
norm against assassination and turn a dishonest, immoral practice into something more
acceptable and fit for the pursuit of interest, security and power. The use of technology will
undoubtedly change how targeted killing operates and is perceived. Though the US, Israel and
Russia are determined to partake in the race towards AI and robotics, these states will continue
to have their own assassination culture even though they are developing along the same
technological curve.
Key Words: targeted killing, assassination, covert operations, intelligence, emerging
technologies, drones, robotics.
Declaration:
The author declares that he is the sole author of the thesis entitled “Targeted Killing: How and
When Intelligence Agencies Eliminate Their Targets and the Impact of Emerging
Technologies.” All the sources and literature have been properly cited and can be found in the
attached list of references.

In Prague on 11 May 2018 Signature…………
Nguyen Ba Nguyen
Acknowledgements
I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisor, Dr. Mark Galeotti, M.A., Ph.D., for his
guidance in my time writing this thesis. I would also thank Mgr. Tomáš Kučera, Ph.D., for
helping me with formulating the research question.
Contents
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 7
Section I: History of Assassination ...................................................................................................... 4
Countries Famous for Their Assassination Practices .......................................................................... 6
a. Syria-Iran and the Hashashin....................................................................................................... 6
b. Japan: shinobi and rogue samurai ................................................................................................ 8
c. The United States, the OSS and the CIA ......................................................................................... 9
d. The Soviet Union/Russia and the KGB, FSB and SVR ................................................................ 13
Section II: Assassination as an Alternative between War and Diplomacy and the Previously
Rejected Utilities of Assassination ..................................................................................................... 19
1. Why conduct assassination/covert operations instead of waging wars ..................................... 19
a. Costs of war ........................................................................................................................... 19
b. Constraints of war ................................................................................................................. 19
c. Consequences of war ............................................................................................................. 21
2. Why conduct assassination/covert operations instead of diplomacy ......................................... 22
a. Difficult opponents ................................................................................................................ 22
b. Consequences of failed diplomacy ........................................................................................ 23
c. Rogue states/actors ................................................................................................................ 25
3. Advantages of Assassination/Targeted Killing/Covert Operations ........................................... 28
4. Disadvantages of assassination/targeted killing/covert operations ............................................ 30
5. The Rejected Utilities of Assassination and its Resurgence in the 2000s ................................. 32
Section III: Modern States and Assassination: How do States Kill their Enemies? When and
Under What Circumstances Can They Do It? .................................................................................. 35
1. The United States ...................................................................................................................... 37
Summary: How the US transformed the norms of assassination. ................................................. 47
2. The State of Israel ...................................................................................................................... 49
Summary: How Israel transformed the norms of assassination..................................................... 59
3. The Russian Federation ............................................................................................................. 61
Summary: How Russia Transformed the Norms of Assassination. .............................................. 68
Section IV: Emerging Technologies: Their Impact on the Future Practices of Assassination ..... 70
Lethal Autonomous Weapons: autonomous drones and insect-sized robots..................................... 70
The United States’ Targeted Killing: How Technology Might Change the Norms and Practices .... 73
Israel’s Targeted Killing: How Technology Might Change the Norms and Practices ...................... 76
Russia’s Targeted Killing: How Technology Might Change the Norms and Practices .................... 77
Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 79
Figure 1: May 2013 Pentagon’s executive summary. GCC: Geographic Combatant Command;
SECDEF: Secretary of Defense; PDC/PC: Principals’ Deputies Committee/Principals Committee;
CoM: Chief of Mission; CoS: Chief of Station ..................................................................................... 44

Figure 2: The Chain of Command of the 2-Step Killing Process. ........................................................ 45

Figure 3: Comparison of Targeted Killings and Suicde Bombings. ..................................................... 57

Figure 4: Chechen militant attacks in relations with targeted killing events between 2004-2011 ....... 68
Introduction
A statesman has many tools at his disposal when practicing his statecraft. Disputes between
countries can either be settled via peaceful means in the form of diplomacy, peace talks,
negotiations, settlements, sanctions etc; or they can be solved by violent measures in the form
of skirmishes, wars, and conquests. A peaceful conflict resolution measure is attractive because
it prevents losses on infrastructure and lives. It is extremely complicated to peacefully satisfy
both sides of a dispute, however. Due to its complex nature, peaceful measures are discarded
by politicians and leaders for many reasons: it can be seen as complacent, slow, and hindering.
Those who disdain peaceful dispute settlements prefer violent methods because these methods
execute their vision far faster than peaceful resolutions ever could. A powerful actor might not
want to waste time with lengthy negotiation with a weaker actor if he can impose his will on
his opponent due to his superior military. A violent measure, if successful, can bring a swift
end to a dispute. The result is a zero-sum game where the victor reaps the utility he seeks and
the vanquished has to yield. The cost of launching a military campaign is high, and the cost of
losing it even higher. That is why statesmen throughout the course of history have sought an
alternative approach: one that balances between complacency and aggression. This is the reason
why assassination has been practiced all over recorded history in virtually almost all cultures:
it does not carry the staggering high cost of warfare, nor does it require one to wait in futility.
Assassination is one of the many tools available in power politics. The aim in this thesis is to
first look at the ways assassination – or targeted killing if we prefer the more euphemized term
– is conducted, including the sorts of operatives, weapons and machines needed, the support
infrastructure required to safely insert and extract these operatives and machines, and the
intelligence network involved in locating the correct targets. The second aim is to look at how
assassination has become more and more permissive in the 21st century, despite its status as a
pariah in international politics a few centuries earlier.
In Section I we will take a look at the history of assassination itself, examining how
assassination was used for political and military purposes. We will take a look at the ascension
of the Hashashin (after whom the term assassin was coined) in the late 11th and 12th centuries
in Syria and Persia, to the rise of the shinobi in feudal Japan and the cold-blooded tales of the
four famed hitokiri of the Bakumatsu era, to the formation of the US Office of Strategic Service
and its transformation to the Central Intelligence Agency, and lastly, we end the section with
the Soviet Union’s KGB and its fanatical loyalty to the Communist ideals.
In Section II this thesis will delve into assassination/covert operations as the middle ground
between open war and diplomacy. We seek to answer these following questions: 1) Why do
states conduct assassinations instead of launching a war? What are the cost and consequences
of wars? What are the constraints of war? 2) Why do states prefer assassinations over
diplomacy? What if one’s opponents refuse to dialogue? What to do with rogue states? What
to do if one’s opponent refuse all the terms on the table? 3) What are the advantages of
assassination and covert operations as opposed to war and diplomacy? 4) What are the
disadvantages of assassination as opposed to war and diplomacy? And lastly in question 5) we
will explore the rejected utilities of assassination throughout the 17th century to the 20th century.
If assassination has its own utilities, then why was it rejected by many international jurists of
the 17th and 18th centuries? Why was there such a strong international condemnation against its
use?
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Section III picks up where Section II leaves off. This is where the research question gets tackled
in detail. We will bring up what we call the super and great powers of assassination: The United
States, Israel and Russia, and analyze how each of these three countries employ assassination
as an instrument of their policies. The research question of this thesis is How and When do
states (respectively their intelligence agencies) eliminate their targets? The research question
deals with two equally important components. The How deals with the operational side of
assassination, ie. its tactics, structure, equipment and manpower. In short, it seeks to explore
how a kill is planned, executed, and completed, and demonstrate what resources one needs to
possess in order to stage a high-value kill worthwhile of the pursuit of national interest. To
illustrate this point, we will explore empirical cases whenever possible. The information will
be taken directly from famous targeted killing operations conducted the United States, Israel
and Russia. The When deals with the permissive catalysts of assassination. It seeks to answer
one fundamental question: When can a state conduct a bespoke killing operation? Under what
circumstances can it kill? The response might not be straightforward. We have stated that
assassination faced strong international condemnation in the past. This means any state wishing
to launch an assassination campaign must consider the diplomatic costs of actions that are
considered immoral and unacceptable. Yet the United States, Israel and Russia are known to
run their own targeted killing and assassination program with a degree of success. The When of
this thesis, then, examines the way these super and great powers of assassination transformed
the way the world perceived their extrajudicial killing practices, softening global disapproval,
and ultimately introducing new assassination norms into the international arena.
We will take a look at the United States and its many intelligence agencies. We will explore
American targeted killing operations all over the Middle East and follow the United States on
its war on terror and hunt for prominent terrorist leaders. The United States banned political
assassination in three executive orders in the 1970s and 1980s. As of 2018, the United States
runs the world’s most widespread and efficient targeted killing program via the use of
unmanned drones and special forces. What caused this dramatic change? What are the processes
of killing an individual, from start to finish?
Leaving the United States behind, we examine Israel and its struggle against Middle Eastern
states and non-state actors. We will discuss the notorious 1972 Olympic massacre in Berlin and
the subsequent Operation Wrath of God. It is also worth mentioning the current situation in the
Mossad itself and Israel’s many special operation units which specialize in targeted killing.
How does Israel deal with Hamas, Hezbollah and the PLO? How effective are Israeli
assassination campaigns? What have those assassinations cost Tel-Aviv? How did Israel, being
a small country lacking diplomatic might that it is, withstand international criticism against its
extrajudicial killings?
After Israel, we will discuss the Russian Federation and its presence in the First and Second
Chechen War. The curious dynamics between Russian organized crime and the Russian security
services will illustrate how Russia has transformed dramatically from its KGB days. How do
the Russian assassination practices differ from the American ones? What did Russia do to create
their own assassination norms even though Russia itself is not as powerful as norm-changer as
the United States?
With these three countries analyzed, we will start to see a stark contrast in each’s assassination
culture. The way Israel kills Hamas and Hezbollah differs from the way the United States kills
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al-Qaeda and Islamic State combatants, and likewise, Russia has its own methods in its hunt
for dissidents, crime lords and Chechen militant leaders. Not only do these countries have their
own preferences in the way they eliminate their targets, they have also found their own way to
build the norm for assassination, and at the same time, dismantle the norm against it.
The last section of this thesis brings up the impact of emerging technologies on targeted killing.
Advancement in science has made it easier to kill someone. Polonium offers a stealthier
alternative to poison. Drones rain down destruction far better than a lone gunman ever can and
contain no risk of capture. Automated weapons systems are being rigorously developed,
experimented on, and will soon see widespread use on battlefields, assuming the ban of killer
robots fails to prevent their proliferation. Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence promises
micro-robots which can be deployed in swarms controlled by algorithms rather than human
operators. These nanobots can be the size of mosquitoes and can be armed with biological
agents or micro-explosives designed to either kill, cripple or immobilize their targets. Emerging
technologies offer a wider range of options for intelligence agencies to choose from should they
decide to neutralize their targets. Technology can empower an assassin in many ways, and even
changes the ways assassination operates. The United States, for instance, has engaged in
extensive intervention campaigns across the globe, gained enemies by doing so, and now it has
a bloated kill list whose names add up faster than they are being crossed off. Like any rational
individual, Washington has to solve a few economical equations before initiating a kill. Its
drones, spies, and special forces cannot be everywhere at once, and so a target has to be
carefully chosen. Risks and rewards must be evaluated. The advent of emerging technologies
allows super and great powers to increase their presence, decrease the cost of a kill, and
ultimately make their targeted killing operations cheaper, simpler, cleaner, and easier.
The author of this thesis is aware that there is a moral and ethical dimension to the topic of
political and military assassination practices. However, the purpose here is not to discuss morals
and ethics. This thesis is only concerned with the reality as it is: targeted killing exists and will
continue to be used. The aim here is never to ask what is right and wrong in terms of ethics and
morality. We are only interested in the How and the When of intelligence agencies eliminating
their targets. The How encompasses the operationality of assassination, ranging from
intelligence planning, insertion, retreats, operative selection, and whatever else that is necessary
to ensure the tactical success of a kill. The When focuses on the construction of permissive
circumstances that allow a kill (or kills) to happen, including the creation of norms that allow
for states to pursue assassination without fear of strong international backlash. Both the How
and the When are equally important for employers of assassination, and if one seeks to wield
assassination as a weapon of one’s policies, one must know the solutions to both questions.

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