Syria 1975/76-2018

503 Pages·2018·4.667 MB·English

by  Anthony Axon, Susan Hewitt

Syria 1975/76–2018
Contemporary Archive of
the Islamic World
volume 1
The titles published in this series are listed at brill.com/caiw
Syria 1975/76–2018
Edited by
Anthony Axon
Susan Hewitt
leiden | boston
The Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available online at http://catalog.loc.gov
Library of Congress Control Number: 2018962663
Typeface for the Latin, Greek, and Cyrillic scripts: “Brill”. See and download: brill.com/brill-typeface.
issn 2589-8124
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Contents
Preface XI
Acronyms XIII
Map XVI
Introduction XVIII
1975/76 1
Brief History – Politics – Ba’ath Party – Assad – Foreign Trade
1977 10
Ba’ath Ideology – Foreign Policy – Fortress Syria – Changing
Structure of Economy – Broadening the Industrial Base – A Rich
and Competent Country –Pax Syriana
1978 25
Assad’s Success Story – Relations with Egypt – Success of the Third
Five-year Plan – Rising Living Standards – Importance of the
Private Sector – Oil and Agriculture
1979 38
The Lebanese Civil War – Syria’s Foreign Policy Aimed at Ending
Isolation – Consequences of Sadat’s Jerusalem Visit – Impotence
in Lebanon – Alawite Assassinations – Unrealistic Budget Plans –
State Spending Rises to 83 per cent
1980 52
Setback of Washington Treaty – Damascus Rivalry with Cairo –
Syria Isolated over Lebanon – Syria’s Rapprochement with Iraq
1981 69
AlawitesMassacred in Aleppo – Campaign Against Muslim
Brotherhood – Public Discontent, Disturbances and Rioting –
Disappointing Economic Results
1982 81
Open Warfare with the Muslim Brotherhood – Opposition to the
Regime Fuelled by Inflation, Corruption and Reduced Subsidies –
Tensions with Iraq and Jordan – Currency Reform
1983 93
Hama Siege – Balance the Secret of Assad’s Rule – Erosion of
Government’s Popularity – Syria’s Rapprochement with the Arab
States – Cabinet Changes – Introduction of Young Technocrats
VI CONTENTS
1984 102
Syria’s New-found Strength – Syria Expels Arafat – Syria Opposes
theUS– Syria Torpedoes Lebanon-Israel Agreement – Defence
Expenditure Still Pre-eminent
1985 112
Assad’s Illness and the Power Struggle – Rifaat al-Assad’s
Unpopularity – Sunni Antagonism Towards Alawites – Syria’s
Closer Links with theUSSR
1986 123
Congress Put on a Show of Unity – Rifaat’s Rehabilitation –
Relations with the Muslim Brotherhood – Syria’s Relationship with
the Shi’a Intensifies – Investment Targets Rarely Fulfilled
1987 133
Spate of Bomb Attacks – Distinguished Relations between
Lebanon and Syria? – Syrian Soldiers Back on the Streets of Beirut
– Strains in Syria’s Alliance with Iran
1988 146
USAmbassador Returns to Damascus – 50 per cent Inflation in
1986 – Ministers Resign as Government Clamps Down on
Corruption – Hindawi Case Raises Questions – Lebanon
Involvement Continues
1989 158
Sectarian Divisions – Ministerial Changes –USPeace Initiative –
Russian Participation, or Interference? – Syria in Lebanon – The
Economy Struggles? or Improves? – Middle East Political Changes
1990 172
Syria Faces Crisis in Lebanon – Saddam Hussain Resurgent –
VacillatoryUSAttitude to Syria – Changes in Iran of Interest to
Syria – New Oil Concessions – Tourism
1991 186
Estrangement with Egypt Ends – Reconciliation between
Damascus and the PLO – Damascus’ Role in Arab-Israeli Peace
Process – Syria Condemns Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait – Significant
OilDiscoveries
1992 198
Syria’s Relations with the West Improve – Damascus Declaration –
Implementation of Taif Agreement – Economic Challenges –
Changes in Investment Law – Assad’s Succession Speculation
CONTENTS VII
1993/94 210
Syria’s Regional Position Improved – Relaxation of Security – Gulf
War Participation – Growing Confidence in Economy – Gas
Development
1995 217
Basil al-Assad’s Death – Israel and the Golan Heights – Relations
with theUS– Assad Meets Clinton – Towards a Market-oriented
Economy
1996 222
Direct Talks Between Syria and Israel – Infitah: Syrian Policy of
Opening up the Economy – External: a Cloud on the Horizon –
Agriculture Performs Well
1997 227
Hopes for Peace Deal Fade – Slow Pace of Economic Reform –US
Refrains from Sanctions – Oil Reserves Depleting
1998 232
Assad’s Ill-health – Bashar’s Lack of Charisma – Syria’s Economic
Isolation – Criticism from Members of Parliament – Sanctions –
Syria Being Left Behind
1999 237
Bashar’s Accession Far from Assured – a Republican Monarchy? –
Developing Relations with the European Union – Negative Growth
Expected in 1999 – Falling Remittances from the Gulf – Declining
Oil Prices
2000 242
Bashar’s Accession – Israeli Relations Improving? – Slow Pace of
Economic Reform – Chaotic State of Government Finances
2001/02 248
Political Prisoners Released – Hard-line Stance on Israel –
Speculation over Troop Presence in Lebanon – Debt Restructured
2003/04 253
Introduction of Market-oriented Reforms – Uncompromising
Policies on Israel – Syria Included in ‘Axis of Evil’ – Oil Production
Dwindles
2005 258
Defining Influences – Stable Position of Assad – Ba’athist Suppres-
sion – Syria Accountability Act – Uphill Task of Modernisation
2006 263
Tumultuous Year – End of Occupation of Lebanon – Hariri
Enquiry – Problems with theUS– Internal Pressures on Assad
VIII CONTENTS
2007 268
From Political Crisis to Political Crisis – End of Lebanon Policy –
The Syria Accountability Act – Declining Oil Exports – Political
Dialogue Forums
2008 273
Origins of Syria – the 'Golden Period', French Occupation and
Siding with Iran – the Friends you Keep – Economy Staggers –UN
Sanctions – Challenges – Hydrocarbons
2009 282
Proximity Talks – Water Security – Israeli Conditions – Oil
Subsidies – Short-term Growth
2010 286
Allies vs Interests – Syrian Army – Strategic Alliancies – Jordan
Valley-Golan Heights Environmental Preserve – Fiscal Deficit
2011 296
Tentative Reform Efforts – The Hariri Affair – Changing
International Isolation – Proximity Talks Deadlock
2012 301
Bashir Ignores Criticism – the Arab League is Rebuffed – Differing
Rebel Objectives – Vested Interests – Russian Intransigence –
ArabFroideur
2013 308
Damascus Bomb Attacks – The Alawite Factor – Extremist Hijack
– Iran – Syria Timeline
2014 316
Western Aid – Obama Dithers – al-Qusayr Assad Victory –US$900
million Russian Missile Deal – Israel’s Walk-on Part
2015 326
Refugees – Presidential Election – Hezbullah – Takfiri Terrorism –
Geneva Peace Talks (1) –ISISGains
2016 333
Russian Intervention –ISIS(ISIL,IS, Daesh) Strengthens – Assad
Forces Weakened – Iranian Guidance – Population Shift
2017 340
War Fatigue –USMistakes – Russia’s Tartus Naval Base – Stable
Economy? – Health Problem
2018 352
Assad – Assad’s Conscience – the Economy – theIMF–
Hydrocarbons
CONTENTS IX
Postscript 360
Arabic Naming Practice 363
Notes 365
These notes are, for the most part, directly related to the names (of
people, places, political movements, parties and events) referred
to inContemporary Archive of the Islamic World: Syria 1975–2018.
They are not claimed to be comprehensive, but it is hoped that
they help clarify some aspects of more recent Syrian history. As
the Civil War continued, a bewilderingly large number of militia
and military groups proliferated. In what by early 2018 had be-
come a national tragedy for Syria, some of the military groups did
at least lend an irony of colour to an otherwise sad and bleak
scenario. These included the Happy Martyrs Brigade, the Glories of
Islam Brigade and the Martyrs of Mount Wastani Brigade.
Timeline 442
Country Profile 454
Nota: since early 2011 Syria has been beset by a civil war with
inestimable consequences. The preparation of a country profile
therefore risks becoming an academic rather than an accurate
assessment of significant parameters. It is hoped that the informa-
tion here will at least present a picture of what Syria might have
been under more benign conditions. Many of the figures given
here, although from official sources, can only be estimates.
Bibliography 467
Index 469