Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area

1062 Pages·2017·46 MB·English

United States Department of Agriculture
NORTHWEST
FOREST PLAN
Synthesis of Science to Inform Land
Management Within the Northwest
Forest Plan Area
Volume 1
Forest Pacifc Northwest General Technical Report June
Service Research Station PNW-GTR-966 Vol. 1 2018
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Synthesis of Science to Inform
Land Management Within the
Northwest Forest Plan Area
Volume 1
Thomas A. Spies, Peter A. Stine, Rebecca Gravenmier,
Jonathan W. Long, and Matthew J. Reilly, Technical Coordinators
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Pacifc Northwest Research Station
Portland, Oregon
General Technical Report PNW-GTR-966 Vol. 1
June 2018
Abstract
Spies, T.A.; Stine, P.A.; Gravenmier, R.; Long, J.W.; Reilly, M.J., tech. coords. 2018.
Synthesis of science to inform land management within the Northwest Forest Plan area.
Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-966. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest
Service, Pacifc Northwest Research Station. 1020 p. 3 vol.
The 1994 Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) was developed to resolve debates over old-
growth forests, endangered species, and timber production on federal forests in the range
of the northern spotted owl. This three-volume science synthesis, which consists of 12
chapters that address various ecological and social concerns, is intended to inform forest
plan revision and forest management within the NWFP area. Land managers with the U.S.
Forest Service provided questions that helped guide preparation of the synthesis, which
builds on the 10-, 15-, and 20-year NWFP monitoring reports and synthesizes the vast
body of relevant scientifc literature that has accumulated in the 24 years since the NWFP
was initiated. It identifes scientifc fndings, lessons learned, and uncertainties and also
evaluates competing science and provides considerations for management.
This synthesis fnds that the NWFP has protected dense old-growth forests and
maintained habitat for northern spotted owls, marbled murrelets, aquatic organisms, and
other species despite losses from wildfre and low levels of timber harvest on federal lands.
Even with reductions in the loss of older forests, northern spotted owl populations continue
to decline. Moreover, a number of other goals have not been met, including producing a
sustainable supply of timber, decommissioning roads, biodiversity monitoring, signifcant
levels of restoration of riparian and dry forests, and adaptation and learning through
adaptive management.
New conservation concerns have arisen, including a major threat to spotted owl
populations from expanding populations of the nonnative barred owl, effects of fre
suppression on forest succession, fre behavior in dry forests, and lack of development of
diverse early-seral vegetation as a result of fre suppression in drier parts of moist forests.
Climate change and invasive species have emerged as threats to native biodiversity, and
expansion of the wildland-urban interface has limited the ability of managers to restore fre
to fre-dependent ecosystems.
The policy, social, and ecological contexts for the NWFP have changed since it was
implemented. The contribution of federal lands continues to be essential to the conservation
and recovery of fsh listed under the Endangered Species Act and northern spotted owl
and marbled murrelet populations. Conservation on federal lands alone, however, is likely
insuffcient to reach the goals of the NWFP or the newer goals of the 2012 planning rule,
which emphasizes managing for ecosystem goals (e.g. ecological resilience) and a few
species of concern, rather than the population viability of hundreds of individual species.
The social and economic basis of many traditionally forest-dependent communities
has changed in 24 years, and many are now focused on amenity values. The capacities
of human communities and federal agencies, collaboration among stakeholders, the
interdependence of restoration and the timber economy, and the role of amenity- or recre-
ation-based communities and ecosystem services are important considerations in managing
for ecological resilience, biodiversity conservation, and social and economic sustainability.
A growing body of scientifc evidence supports the importance of active management
or restoration inside and outside reserves to promote biodiversity and ecological resilience.
Active management to promote heterogeneity of vegetation conditions is important to
sustaining tribal ecocultural resources. Declines in agency capacity, lack of markets for
small-diameter wood, lack of wood processing infrastructure in some areas, and lack of
social agreement have limited the amount of active management for restoration on federal
lands. All management choices involve social and ecological tradeoffs related to the goals
of the NWFP. Collaboration, risk management, adaptive management, and monitoring are
considered the best ways to deal with complex social and ecological systems with futures
that are diffcult to predict and affect through policy and land management actions.
Keywords: Northwest Forest Plan, science, management, restoration, northern spotted
owl, marbled murrelet, climate change, socioeconomic, environmental justice.
Preface
In 2015, regional foresters in the Pacifc Northwest and Pacifc Southwest Regions of the
USDA Forest Service requested that the Pacifc Northwest and Pacifc Southwest Research
Stations prepare a science synthesis to inform revision of existing forest plans under the
2012 planning rule in the area of the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP, or Plan). Managers
provided an initial list of hundreds of questions to the science team, which reduced to them
to 73 questions deemed most feasible for addressing through a study of current scientifc lit-
erature. The stations assembled a team of 50 scientists with expertise in biological, ecologi-
cal, and socioeconomic disciplines. At the suggestion of stakeholders, a literature reference
database was placed online so the public could submit additional scientifc literature for
consideration. By spring 2016, writing was underway on 12 chapters that covered ecologi-
cal and social sciences.
The draft synthesis, which was ready for peer and public review by fall 2016, went
through a special review process because it was classifed as “highly infuential science” in
accordance with the Offce of Management and Budget’s 2004 “Final Information Quality
Bulletin for Peer Review.” The synthesis was classifed as such because it ft the category of
a scientifc assessment that is novel, controversial, or precedent-setting, or has signifcant
interagency interest. Per the bulletin, the two research stations commissioned an indepen-
dent entity, the Ecological Society of America (ESA), to manage the peer-review process,
including the selection of peer reviewers.
The bulletin also stipulates that such an assessment be made available to the public
through a public meeting to enable the public to bring scientifc issues to the attention of
peer reviewers. Accordingly, a public forum was held in Portland, Oregon, in December
2016. For those who could not travel to Portland, the forum was accessible via live Web
stream, and multiple national forests within the NWFP area hosted remote viewing. Written
comments on the draft synthesis were collected for 2 months. This generated 130 public
comments, totaling 890 pages, which were given to the peer reviewers for consideration
in their review, as they deemed appropriate. The OMB guidelines further direct that the
peer-review process be transparent by making available to the public the ESA’s written
guidance to the reviewers, the peer reviewer’s names, the peer review reports, and the
responses of the authors to the peer reviewer comments—all of which are available at
https://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/research/science-synthesis/index.shtml.
The peer reviewer comments, which were received in spring 2017 and informed by
public input, resulted in substantive revisions to chapters of the synthesis. The result is this
three-volume general technical report (an executive summary of the synthesis is available
as a separate report). This document is intended to support upcoming management plan-
ning on all public lands in the Plan area, but is expected to serve primarily lands managed
by the U.S. Forest Service. We hope it will be a valuable reference for managers and others
who seek to understand the scientifc basis and possible tradeoffs associated with forest
plan revision and management decisions. The synthesis also provides an extensive list of
published sources where readers can fnd further information.
We understand that the term “synthesis” can have many different meanings. For our
purposes, it represents a compilation and interpretation of relevant scientifc fndings that
pertain to key issues related to the NWFP that were identifed by managers and by the
authors of the document. Such a compilation not only summarizes science by topic areas
but also interprets that science in light of management goals, characterizes competing
science, and makes connections across scientifc areas, addressing multilayered and inter-
acting ecological and socioeconomic issues. In a few cases, simple analyses of existing data
were conducted and methods were provided to reviewers.
The synthesis builds upon the 10-, 15-, and 20-year NWFP monitoring reports, and
authors considered well over 4,000 peer-reviewed publications based on their knowledge
as well as publications submitted by the public and others suggested by peer reviewers. For
some of the questions posed by land managers, there was ample scientifc research from
the Plan area. For many of the questions, however, little research existed that was specifc
to the area. In such cases, studies from other regions or current scientifc theory were used
to address the questions to the extent possible. In many cases, major scientifc uncertainties
were found; these are highlighted by the authors.
The synthesis chapters characterize the state of the science but they do not develop
management alternatives, analyze management tradeoffs, or offer recommendations as to
what managers should do. The synthesis does identify ideas, facts, and relationships that
managers may want to consider as they develop plans and make management decisions
about particular issues. The fnal chapter attempts to integrate signifcant cross-cutting
issues, e.g., ecological and socioeconomic interdependencies, compatibility of different
management goals, and tradeoffs associated with different restoration actions. All the
chapters identify where more research is needed to fll critical information gaps.
We would like to acknowledge the peer reviewers who considered hundreds of public
comments as part of the process of reviewing our lengthy draft manuscripts. We also thank
the many contributors to the development of the synthesis in draft and fnal form, including
those who provided editing, layout, database, and other support services.
Contents
Volume 1
1 Chapter 1: Introduction
Peter A. Stine and Thomas A. Spies

1 Background and Purpose of This Science Synthesis
3 Northwest Forest Plan History and Context
3 The Forest Ecosystem Management Assessment Team
4 Principal Elements of the NWFP
7 History of Reporting on the Research and Monitoring Within the NWFP Area
7 10-, 15-, and 20-Year Monitoring Reports
9 Scope and Approach of This Science Synthesis
9 Rationale for Topics Covered
10 Sources of Information Considered
10 Dealing With Scientifc Uncertainty
11 Role of Peer Review in This Document
12 The NWFP Area
12 Ecogeographic Variability of NWFP Area
13 Other Syntheses Reports Relevant to the NWFP Area
13 Role of Science in Supporting Land Management
14 Context of the NWFP and Forest Plan Revision Under the New Planning Rule
16 Emergent Issues
20 Literature Cited
23 Appendix: Priority Management Questions to Guide the Northwest Forest Plan
Science Synthesis As Defned by Pacifc Northwest and Pacifc Southwest Forest and
Regional Staff and Edited by the Science Synthesis Team
23 Priority Questions
27 Other Topics to Be Considered in the Integration Section of the Synthesis (Pulled From
Region 5 and Region 6 Long List)
29 Chapter 2: Climate, Disturbance, and Vulnerability to Vegetation Change in the
Northwest Forest Plan Area
Matthew J. Reilly, Thomas A. Spies, Jeremy Littell, Ramona Butz, and John B. Kim
29 Introduction
30 Guiding Questions
30 Background and Setting
35 Key Findings
35 Past Climate Change in the Northwest Forest Plan Area
36 Fire History
th
41 20 -Century Climate Change in the Northwest Forest Plan Area
st
41 Projecting Climate Change for the 21 Century
st
42 21 -Century Climate Change Projections for the Northwest Forest Plan Area
43 Implications of Observed Climate Trends for Water Balance Defcit and Vegetation Change
46 Mechanisms of Vegetation Change
50 Abiotic Disturbances
55 Vegetation Models and Potential Future Vulnerability
56 Summary of Vulnerabilities to Climate Change
58 Other Vulnerabilities
59 Adaptation to and Mitigation of Climate Change
63 Research Needs, Uncertainties, Information Gaps, and Limitations
64 Conclusions and Management Considerations
65 Literature Cited
92 Appendix: Crosswalk of Simpson (2013) Potential Vegetation Zones With Existing
Vegetation From the Classifcation and Assessment With Landsat of Visible Ecologi-
cal Groupings (CALVEG) System
95 Chapter 3: Old Growth, Disturbance, Forest Succession, and Management in the
Area of the Northwest Forest Plan
Thomas A. Spies, Paul F. Hessburg, Carl N. Skinner, Klaus J. Puettmann, Matthew J.

Reilly, Raymond J. Davis, Jane A. Kertis, Jonathan W. Long, and David C. Shaw

95 Introduction
98 Guiding Questions
99 Key Findings
99 Vegetation Patterns and Classifcation
101 Disturbance Regimes
115 Forest Succession and Landscape Dynamics
137 Effects of Fire Exclusion
143 Use of Historical Ecology in Conservation and Restoration
146 Ecosystem Function
148 Conservation and Restoration Needs
151 Timber Management and Old-Growth Conservation
153 Reserves in Dynamic Ecosystems
161 Connectivity and Fragmentation
161 Restoration Approaches
175 Invasive Plant Species and Pathogens
177 Postfre Salvage and Management
181 Research Needs, Uncertainties, Information Gaps, and Limitations
182 Conclusions and Management Considerations
183 Management Considerations Summarized
183 Guiding Questions
184 Ecology of Old-Growth and Other Vegetation Types (Questions 1 and 2)
185 Value of Ecological History (Question 3)
186 Conservation and Restoration Needs (Questions 4 and 5)
186 Competing Science Related to Need for Restoration (Question 5)
187 Trends in Forests in the NWFP Reserve Network (Question 9)
187 Reserve Approaches in Dynamic Landscapes (Questions 8 and 9)
187 Restoration Approaches (Questions 6 and 7)
189 Post-Wildfre Management (Question 10)
189 Acknowledgments
189 Literature Cited
231 Appendix 1: Crosswalk of Simpson (2013) Potential Vegetation Zones With Ex-
isting Vegetation From the Classifcation and Assessment With Landsat of Visible
Ecological Grouping (CALVEG)
232 Appendix 2: Fire Regime Mapping Method
239 Appendix 3: Summary of Fire History Studies in the Northwest Forest Plan
245 Chapter 4: Northern Spotted Owl Habitat and Populations: Status and Threats
Damon B. Lesmeister, Raymond J. Davis, Peter H. Singleton, and J. David Wiens

245 Introduction
246 Guiding Questions
247 Key Findings
247 Population Status and Trends
250 Habitat Status and Trends
258 Barred Owls
263 Spotted Owl Prey
264 Disturbance
270 Climate Change
271 Other Threats
272 Research Needs, Uncertainties, Information Gaps, and Limitations
272 Research Needs
277 Scientifc Uncertainty
279 Conclusions and Management Considerations
280 Management Considerations
283 U.S. and Metric Equivalents
283 Acknowledgments
284 Literature Cited
301 Chapter 5: Marbled Murrelet
301 Martin G. Raphael, Gary A. Falxa, and Alan E. Burger

301 Introduction
304 Guiding Questions
305 Key Findings
305 NWFP Expectations
306 NWFP Monitoring Results for Marbled Murrelets
316 Status of Marbled Murrelets Elsewhere in the Species’ Range
318 Nesting Habitat Relationships
329 Climate Change Considerations
332 Research Needs, Uncertainties, Information Gaps, and Limitations
334 Conclusions and Management Considerations