Lecture Notes in Computer Science 3355 CommencedPublicationin1973 FoundingandFormerSeriesEditors: GerhardGoos,JurisHartmanis,andJanvanLeeuwen EditorialBoard DavidHutchison LancasterUniversity,UK TakeoKanade CarnegieMellonUniversity,Pittsburgh,PA,USA JosefKittler UniversityofSurrey,Guildford,UK JonM.Kleinberg CornellUniversity,Ithaca,NY,USA FriedemannMattern ETHZurich,Switzerland JohnC.Mitchell StanfordUniversity,CA,USA MoniNaor WeizmannInstituteofScience,Rehovot,Israel OscarNierstrasz UniversityofBern,Switzerland C.PanduRangan IndianInstituteofTechnology,Madras,India BernhardSteffen UniversityofDortmund,Germany MadhuSudan MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,MA,USA DemetriTerzopoulos NewYorkUniversity,NY,USA DougTygar UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley,CA,USA MosheY.Vardi RiceUniversity,Houston,TX,USA GerhardWeikum Max-PlanckInstituteofComputerScience,Saarbruecken,Germany Roderick Murray-Smith Robert Shorten (Eds.) Switching and Learning in Feedback Systems European Summer School on Multi-Agent Control Maynooth, Ireland, September 8-10, 2003 Revised Lectures and Selected Papers 1 3 VolumeEditors RoderickMurray-Smith GlasgowUniversity,Dept.ofComputingScience GlasgowG128QQ,Scotland,UK E-mail:[email protected] RobertShorten HamiltonInstitute,NUIMaynooth Co.Kildare,Ireland E-mail:[email protected] LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2004118125 CRSubjectClassification(1998):F.1,C.3,G.3,I.2,I.6 ISSN0302-9743 ISBN3-540-24457-3SpringerBerlinHeidelbergNewYork Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.Allrightsarereserved,whetherthewholeorpartofthematerialis concerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,re-useofillustrations,recitation,broadcasting, reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherway,andstorageindatabanks.Duplicationofthispublication orpartsthereofispermittedonlyundertheprovisionsoftheGermanCopyrightLawofSeptember9,1965, initscurrentversion,andpermissionforusemustalwaysbeobtainedfromSpringer.Violationsareliable toprosecutionundertheGermanCopyrightLaw. SpringerisapartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia springeronline.com ©Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2005 PrintedinGermany Typesetting:Camera-readybyauthor,dataconversionbyBollerMediendesign Printedonacid-freepaper SPIN:11380887 06/3142 543210 Preface A central theme in the study of dynamic systems is the modelling and control of uncertain systems. While ‘uncertainty’ has long been a strong motivating factor behind many techniques developed in the modelling, control, statistics and mathematics communities, the past decade, in particular, has witnessed remarkable progress in this area with the emergence of a number of powerful newmethodsforbothmodellingandcontrollinguncertaindynamicsystems.The specific objective of this book is to describe and review some of these exciting new approacheswithin a single volume. Our approachwas to invite some of the leading researchers in this area to contribute to this book by submitting both tutorial papers on their specific area of research, and to submit more focussed research papers to document some of the latest results in the area. We feel that collecting some of the main results together in this manner is particularly important as many of the important ideas that emerged in the past decade werederivedinavarietyofacademicdisciplines.Byprovidingbothtutorialand researchpaperswehopetobeabletoprovidetheinterestedreaderwithsufficient background to appreciate some of the main concepts from a variety of related, but nevertheless distinct fields, and to provide a flavor of how these results are currently being used to cope with ‘uncertainty.’ It is our sincere hope that the availability of these results within a single volume will lead to further cross- fertilization of ideas and act as a spark for further research in this important area of applied mathematics. It is a huge challenge to completely characterize methods for dealing with ‘uncertainty’ in a concise manner, and it is impossible to document all of the methods that have emerged over the past decade. The work that is included in this book is work that to a large extent is due to the widespread availability of cheap computation power. Identification paradigms based upon non-parametric statisticsandMonteCarlosimulationthatwereonceconsideredtooimpractical to be of interest to engineers, are now the subject of great interest in the com- munity, and form the basis of many practically useful nonlinear system identifi- cation techniques. Similarly, complex supervisory (switching) control strategies thatwerealsoonceconsideredtoocomplextomanageinpracticalsituationsare nowprovidingthebasisforthecontrolofuncertainandrapidlytime-varyingdy- namic systems. Switching controlstrategies can also be considered Multi-Agent or Multiple Model systems, although each research area has tended to use dif- ferent tools, and to apply their methods to different application areas. It is our hope that this book provides, in particular, a rigorous snapshot of some of the developments that have taken place in these areas over the past decade, and alsopresentsstate-of-theartresearchinselectedareasofswitchingandlearning systems. In the context of this overallobjective,our aim was to produce a book that would be of use to a graduate researcher wishing to undertake research in thisvastfield,andthatwouldhavebothintroductorychaptersandleading-edge VI Preface research, together with example applications of the methods. Toward this aim, we divided the book into three parts: Part I introduces the challenges in switching systems for feedback control systems, with a broad overviewby K. Narendra.This is followed by a review of someofthe stabilityissuesthatariseinsupervisorycontrolsystemsbyShorten, MasonandWulff.GrancharovaandJohansenthensurveyexplicitapproachesto constrained optimal control for complex systems, which is of particular interest for practical application. PartIIcoverstheuseofGaussianProcesspriorsinfeedbackcontrolcontexts. Recentlyitwasobservedthatwhenthenumberofsubmodelsinamultiple-model system increases towardsinfinity, the system tends towards a Gaussianprocess. GaussianProcesspriorswerealsofoundtobewell-suitedtononlinearregression tasks,andwereverycompetitivewithmethodssuchasartificialneuralnetworks. There has, to date, been very little published work in the combination of Gaus- sianProcesspriorsinfeedbackcontrolcontexts.Thisseriesofpapersisintended to provide an overview of the ways in which the approach can be used, and its effectiveness. One of the challenges in the use of Gaussian Process priors which has to be overcome before they are likely to be accepted for control purposes is theirhighcomputationalcostformediumtolargedatasets.Quin˜onero-Candela and Rasmussen introduce Gaussian Process priors, discuss the link with linear models, and propose a reduced rank GP approach that would reduce the com- putational load. The topic of efficient GPs for large data sets is continued in the following chapter by Shi et al. which provides an alternative approach, one also of interest in applications where the nonlinear system is convolved with a known system before measurement. An adaptive variant of single-step-ahead model-predictive control is presented by Sbarbaro and Murray-Smith, showing how Gaussian Process priors are well suited for cautious control, while simul- taneously learning about a new plant. In order to use Gaussian processes in multiple-step-aheadcontrol,theissueofpropagationofuncertaintyintime-series predictions needs to be resolved. An approach to this for Gaussian processes is presented in Girard and Murray-Smith. The following chapter by Kocijan pro- vides an illustrative example of the use of Girard’s propagation algorithm in a model-predictive control setting, controlling a simulated pH process. Part III is composed of papers making more specific research contributions or applying switching and learning techniques to a range of application do- mains. Vilaplana et al. present the results of tests of a new controller for cars equippedwith4-wheelsteer-by-wire,andprovidesaveryclearapplicationexam- ple of the individual channel design approach. This is followed by two chapters on applications in communications systems: Wong et al. present a geometric approach to designing minimum-variance beamformers that are robust against steering vector uncertainties; Xiao et al. consider allocation of communication resources in wireless communication channels, demonstrating their approachon the design of a networked linear estimator and on the design of a multivariable networked LQG controller. Ragnoli and Leithead present a theoretical contri- bution, investigating inconsistencies in the theory of linear systems. Tresp and Preface VII Yu present an introduction to nonparametric hierarchical Bayesian modelling with Dirichlet distributions, and apply this in a multiagent learning context for a recommendation engine, allowing a principled combination of content-based and collaborative filtering. Roweis and Salakhutdinov investigate simultaneous localizationandsurveyingwith multiple agents,basedonthe use ofconstrained HiddenMarkovmodels,allowingagentstonavigateandlearnaboutanunknown static environment. In the final chapter, Williamson and Murray-Smith present an application of adaptive nonlinear control methods to user interface design. The Hex system is a gestural interface for entering text on a mobile device via a continuous controltrajectory.The dynamics of the systemdepend onthe lan- guagemodelandchangeasnewlettersareenteredsuchthatusersaresupported without being constrained. ThebookdocumentstheworkbehindpresentationsattheEuropeanSummer School on Multi-Agent Control, held at the Hamilton Institute in Maynooth, Ireland, in September 2003. The meeting was partially supported by the EC- fundedresearchtrainingnetworkMAC:Multi-AgentControl,andincludedmany of the outcomes of the project. The participants in the summer school brought insight, techniques and language from very diverse theoretical backgrounds to bear on a range of leading-edge applications. We hope that the publication of this book will bring these exciting cross-disciplinary developments to a broader audience. October 2004 Roderick Murray-Smith, Robert Shorten Glasgow and Maynooth VIII Organization Organization TheMaynoothSummerSchoolwasjointlyorganizedbytheEC-fundedresearch training network MAC: Multi-Agent Control, and the Hamilton Institute, NUI Maynooth. Conference Chair Robert Shorten (Hamilton Institute, Ireland) Network Coordinator Roderick Murray-Smith (Glasgow University, UK and Hamilton Institute, Ireland) Local Organizing Committee Rosemary Hunt Oliver Mason Kai Wulff (Hamilton Institute, Ireland) Table of Contents Switching and Control From Feedback Control to Complexity Management: A Personal Perspective....................................................... 1 Kumpati S. Narendra (Yale University) Convex Cones, Lyapunov Functions, and the Stability of Switched Linear Systems ................................................... 31 Robert Shorten, Oliver Mason, Kai Wulff (Hamilton Institute) Survey of Explicit Approaches to Constrained Optimal Control ......... 47 Alexandra Grancharova (Norwegian University of Science and Technology & Bulgarian Academy of Sciences), Tor Arne Johansen (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) Gaussian Processes Analysis of Some Methods for Reduced Rank Gaussian Process Regression ....................................................... 98 Joaquin Quin˜onero-Candela (Technical University of Denmark & Max-Planck Institute), Carl Edward Rasmussen (Max-Planck Institute) Filtered Gaussian Processes for Learning with Large Data-Sets ......... 128 Jian Qing Shi (University of Newcastle), Roderick Murray-Smith, D. Mike Titterington, (Glasgow University) Barak A. Pearlmutter (Hamilton Institute) Self-tuning Control of Non-linear Systems Using Gaussian Process Prior Models ..................................................... 140 Daniel Sbarbaro (Univ. of Concepcion), Roderick Murray-Smith (University of Glasgow & Hamilton Institute) Gaussian Processes: Prediction at a Noisy Input and Application to Iterative Multiple-Step Ahead Forecasting of Time-Series .............. 158 Agathe Girard (University of Glasgow), Roderick Murray-Smith (University of Glasgow & Hamilton Institute) Nonlinear Predictive Control with a Gaussian Process Model ........... 185 Juˇs Kocijan (Jozef Stefan Institute & Nova Gorica Polytechnic), Roderick Murray-Smith (University of Glasgow & Hamilton Institute) X Table of Contents Applications of Switching & Learning Control of Yaw Rate and Sideslip in 4-Wheel Steering Cars with Actuator Constraints .............................................. 201 Miguel A. Vilaplana, Oliver Mason, Douglas J. Leith, William E. Leithead (Hamilton Institute) A Second-Order Cone Bounding Algorithm for Robust Minimum Variance Beamforming............................................. 223 Ngai Wong (University of Hong Kong), Venkataramanan Balakrishnan (Purdue University), Tung-Sang Ng (University of Hong Kong) Joint Optimization of Wireless Communication and Networked Control Systems ......................................................... 248 Lin Xiao (Stanford University), Mikael Johansson (KTH), Haitham Hindi (PARC), Stephen Boyd, Andrea Goldsmith (Stanford University) Reconciliation of Inconsistencies in the Theory of Linear Systems ....... 273 Emanuele Ragnoli, William Leithead (Hamilton Institute) An Introduction to Nonparametric Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling with a Focus on Multi-agent Learning ............................... 290 Volker Tresp, Kai Yu (Siemens AG) Simultaneous Localization and Surveying with Multiple Agents ......... 313 Sam T. Roweis, Ruslan R. Salakhutdinov (University of Toronto) Hex: Dynamics and Probabilistic Text Entry ......................... 333 John Williamson (University of Glasgow), Roderick Murray-Smith (University of Glasgow & Hamilton Institute) Author Index ................................................ 343