Sustainable development of Asian countries, water resources and biodiversity under climate change

195 Pages·5.838 MB·English

by  Bezmaternykh D.M., Troshkin D.N. (Сompilation)

IW P

Proceedings
of AASSA Regional Workshop

Sustainable development of Asian
countries, water resources and
biodiversity under climate change
IIWW

August 19-23, 2013 PP

BARNAUL 2013
UDC 502.15+504
BBK У28(5)+Е(081.1+Б1(5)
S(У)79

ISBN 978-5-904014-44-5

Compilation by D.M. Bezmaternykh, D.N. Troshkin

Sustainable development of Asian countries, water resources and
biodiversity under climate change: Proceedings of AASSA Regional
Workshop / Compilation by D.M. Bezmaternykh, D.N. Troshkin; Institute
for Water and Environmental Problems, Siberian Branch of the Russian
Academy of Sciences (IWEP SB RAS), Barnaul, 2013, 193p.

The proceedings present 21 papers from 9 countries of the Asian region dealing with
water, biodiversity and environmental problems in Asia and offering way for their
solurion and sustainable development. The main focus is on the role of academic
science and international cooperation in resolving conflict, legal and economic
issues of environmental management under climate change. Adaptation of nature
and society to climate change, Biodiversity under environmental changes, Problems
of water use in Asian region, Socio-economic and environmental problems of the
development of Asian regions and Mechanisms for sustainable development of
Asian regions are discussed.
All papers are published in author’s version. For authors who had not submitted the
full text of papers, abstract were published.
Color version of proceedings available in the web site of IWEP SB RAS:
http://www.iwep.ru/ru/bibl/nauchno-metodmat/Matkonf.html

S(У)79 UDC 502.15+504
ISBN 978-5-904014-44-5 BBK У28(5)+Е(081.1+Б1(5)

© Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
© Institute for Water and Environmental Problems SB RAS
Table of contents
Would Climate Change Bring Only Negative Impacts to the Ecosystem and
Human Life Condition? A Speculation on It’s Positive Side
Wuk-Hee Hong ................................................................................................ 5
Evolution of large water body ecosystem after decreasing of anthropogenic
impact (in terms of Ladoga Lake)
Rumyantsev Vladislav, Kondratiev Sergey., Pozdnyakov Shamil’ ........................ 17
Water and environmental problems of transboundary cooperation in
continental Asia
Yuri Vinokurov, Bella Krasnoyarova ............................................................... 22
Modern adaptation approach of water consuming branches to climate
changes and degradation of glaciers
Parviz Normatov............................................................................................ 28
Black Carbon: A New Twist to the Climate Change
Jong Soo Kim ................................................................................................ 37
Current trends of temperature variations in the territory of Kazakhstan
Vladimir Cherednichenko, Alexander Cherednichenko, Alexey Cherednichenko ... 47
Fluctuations in Altai glaciers during instrumental observations (glacier
Maly Aktru as a case study)
Vladimir Galakhov, Svetlana Samoylova, Alexandr Shevchenko, Rashit Sheremetov
.................................................................................................................... 56
Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Biodiversity of Iran
Mohammad Soltanieh, Jalal Shayegan ............................................................. 61
Biodiversity of benthic invertebrates in lakes located along aridity gradient
(lakes in the south of West Siberia as a case study)
Dmitry Bezmaternykh, Ol’ga Zhukova ............................................................. 78
Environmental adaptation of brain shrimp Artemia sp.
Galina Egorkina. ........................................................................................... 82
The diatom diversity in bottom sediments of the deep reservoir as an
indicator of climate changes (Lake Teletskoye, Russian Altai as a case
study)
Ol’ga Sutchenkova, Elena Mitrofanova ............................................................ 89
Floral Diversity and need for its Utilization in Nepal
Chiranjivi Regmi ........................................................................................... 93
Effects of climate change on water resources in Turkey
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Sustainable development of Asian countries, water resources and biodiversity under climate change
İzzet Öztürk, Melike Gürel, Ali Ertürk .............................................................. 98
Hydrology and management of the terminal lakes in the central Asia
Mikhail Bolgov, Elena Korobkina, Natalia Frolova ......................................... 119
Water Resources in the south of West Siberia under global climate changes
Аlexandr Zinoviev, Vladimir Galakhov, Еvgenia Kosheleva, Оl’ga Lovtskaya .... 128
Trace elements in suspended matter of Altai surface water
Alexandr Puzanov, Svetlana Baboshkina, Alexey Saltykov, Tamara
Rozhdestvenskaya, Ivan Gorbachev, Sergey Balykin, Dmitry Balykin, Irina Egorova,
Syrga Meshkinova ........................................................................................ 136
The Role of Institutional Factors in Facilitating Trans-boundary
Cooperation: Methodology Notes
Evgeny Vodichev, Irina Glazyrina, Bella Krasnoyarova ................................... 140
Evaluation of water balance components and ecological condition of poorly
studied transboundary river basins by isotope methods (by the example of
basins of rivers Kyzyl-Suu – Pamir-Alay and Chu – the northern Tien-Shan)
Duishen Mamamkanov1, Tamara Tuzova1, Shatravin V.I.1, Kobuliev Z.I.2,
Burkitbaev М.М.3, Uralbekov B.M…………………………………………………..….146
Monitoring and Analyses of Impact of the Industrial Complexes on Water
Quality of the Central Asian Transboundary Rivers
Inom Sh. Normatov, Oliver Olsson, Michael Groll, Nomvar Kurbonov ............. 159
The development perspective of Hydropower resources of the Pyanj
Transboundary River Basin
Inom Normatov............................................................................................ 167
The Impact of Water Reservoirs on Biodiversity and Food Security and
Creation of Adaptation Mechanisms
Inom Normatov, Abulqosim Muminov, Naim Narzulloev .................................. 177
Climate as a Factor of Sustainable Development of Continental Asia
Yuri Vinokurov, Natalia Kharlamova. ............................................................ 189
Phytoplankton Algae and Biogenic Elements in Water as an Indicators of
Ecological Status of Debed River.
Marine Nalbandyan, L.Hambaryan……………………………….…………………....193

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Sustainable development of Asian countries, water resources and biodiversity under climate change
Would Climate Change Bring Only Negative Impacts to the Ecosystem
and Human Life Condition?
A Speculation on It’s Positive Side

Wuk-Hee Hong
Semin Institute for Sustainable Environment, Seoul, South Korea

Introduction
Climate change and its impacts on our environment and human life
conditions are surely the defining issue of our era. Hence, it is no wonder
that world research community has carried out enormous scientific
investigation and socioeconomic studies during the last several decades
generating numerous publications about the causes, progress, impacts and
applicable policies associated with climate change and global warming.
In this regard, however, most investigators suggest that future human
life will be significantly affected mainly due to ecosystem transformation,
sea level rise, increased epidemic disease spread, water shortage, etc.
However, the author thinks differently. Surely, there will be certain
negative impacts as mentioned above. However, this is the author’s
proposition that there would be some positive effects caused by global
warming and climate change, particularly in the regions of East Asia and
Russian Far East where most of parts are rather cold region compared with
other parts of the world. For example, opening of arctic sea route and
acceleration of economic development in Russian Siberia in these days
would not be possible without global warming and climate change.
In addition to this observation, most scientific publications which dealt
with such negative impacts like decrease of crop production, loss of
biodiversity, and/or ecosystem transformation limited their discussion
largely to qualitative speculation. For this reason, in the presenting paper the
author would like to discuss what the real impacts of global warming and
climate change are in our region, particularly in the field of agriculture and
forestry, by presenting some real data which have been collected in South
Korea during the last several decades.
The Trend of Global Warming and Climate Change in Korea
Well known IPCC report(2007) clearly demonstrates that the global
average air temperature has steadily increased ever since the start of
industrial revolution in mid 19th century as shown in Fig. 1. The increase of
temperature was particularly significant over the last half a century, so the
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Plenary session
rate of warming averaged in this period was nearly twice that for the last
100 years showing the range 0.13℃ ± 0.03℃ per decade.
On this temperature increase, however, IPCC report described that
effects of urbanization and land use change on the global temperature record
were negligible (less than 0.006°C per decade over land and zero over the
ocean) as far as hemispheric- and continental-scale averages are concerned.
In fact, the real but local effects of urban areas were fully accounted for in
the land temperature data sets used for drawing Fig. 1. IPCC report also
mentioned that urbanization and land use effects are not relevant to the
widespread oceanic warming that has been observed.

Fig. 1. Annual global mean observed temperatures(black dots) along with simple fits
to the data. The left hand axis shows anomalies relative to the 1961 to 1990
average and the right hand axis shows the estimated actual temperature(°C).
Linear trend fits to the last 25(yellow), 50(orange), 100(purple) and 150
years(red) are shown, and correspond to 1981 to 2005, 1956 to 2005, 1906
to 2005, and 1856 to 2005, respectively.
Comparing with this trend of global warming, however, Korea’s recent
temperature records show a very rapid increasing as illustrated in Fig. 2.
The 10-year average temperature steadily increased from 12.1℃ to 12.8℃
between 1970 and 2010 showing most dramatic increase in the last decade.
The rate of Korea’s average temperate increase during the last 40 years was
0.27℃± 0.05℃ per decade(KMA, 2011), far exceeding the rate of global
trend reported by the IPCC.
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Sustainable development of Asian countries, water resources and biodiversity under climate change

Fig. 2. Recent trend of annual average temperature increase in Korea(1973~2010).
This rapid increase of temperature in Korea would be caused mainly by
the increase of greenhouse gases. In fact, Korea’s background CO2
concentration increased by 3 ppm per year recently(MOE, 2011) and this
increase rate is more than twice of global CO2 increase rate since 1970s.
Rapid increase of population from 32.2 million in 1970 to 49.8 million in
2010 as well as rapid economic development and subsequent rapid increase
of fossil fuel consumption during the same period would also affect such
rapid increase of greenhouse gases.
Other factors such as accelerated urbanization and land cover change
would have significant influence on Korea's climatic change. Furthermore,
distinct geographical surroundings also may affect Korea's climatic change.
Located alongside the Pacific and the Eurasian continent at mid latitude,
Korea is regarded as one of few countries easily affected by both
continental and oceanic climates.
Global warming also affects regional climate change. In Korea’s case, 10-
year average annual precipitation were increased about 15%, from 1,180mm
in 1970s to 1,359mm in 2000s, as seen in Fig. 3.
In summary, it is believed that Korea has experienced about 0.8℃
temperature increase during the last half a century showing twice of global
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Plenary session
average mainly because of very rapid population increase and economic
development compared to other parts of the world. Korea’s unique
geographic characteristics sitting far Eastern part of Eurasian continent as
well as nearby China’s recent economic development would also affect such
rapid greenhouse gas increase in the air causing accelerated temperature
increase.

Fig. 3. Recent trend of annual precipitation increase in Korea(1973~2010).
This observation that Korea already has been through with significant
global warming and climate change during the last half a century suggests
that what Korea has experienced until now would serve as certain examples
to other parts of the world in recognizing how significant the impacts of
global warming and climate change will be for the next a couple of decades
or more. The followings are some statistical analysis in the fields of
agriculture and forestry in Korea.
The Impacts of Climate Change in Korea’s Agriculture
Agriculture is highly dependent on specific climate conditions.
Increases in temperature and carbon dioxide can be beneficial for some
crops in some places. But to realize these benefits, nutrient levels, soil
moisture, water availability, and other conditions must also be met. Changes
in the frequency and severity of droughts and floods caused by the global
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Sustainable development of Asian countries, water resources and biodiversity under climate change
warming and climate change could pose challenges for farmers by
significantly decreasing crop productivities.
In this regard, it seems the general consensus that higher temperature
eventually reduce yields of desirable crops while encouraging weed and
pest proliferation(IFPRI, 2009). Also, it is widely accepted that changes in
precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run crop failures and
long-run production declines. Although there will be gains in some crops in
some regions of the world, the overall impacts of climate change on
agriculture are expected to be negative, threatening global food
security(IFPRI, 2009).
Contrary to this generalized theory, however, Korea’s agriculture
business have enjoyed continued crop production increase during the last
half a century. Here let’s check the case of rice which is regarded most
precious crop product in Korea dominating more than 90% of total grain
production. Mainly because of nation’s long history of rapid
industrialization and urbanization rice paddy area has consistently decreased
from 1.184million(M) ha in 1970 to 0.887M ha in 2010, showing about
25% reduction. However, annual rice production has increased about 25%
during the same period from 3.907M M/T to 4.899M M/T as shown in
Fig. 4.

Fig. 4. Trend of rice production and rice paddy area change during 1970-2010 in
Korea.
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Plenary session
This amazing increase of rice production has surely been benefitted
from changes in farming practices and technology development.
Improvement of crop species, more use of fertilizers and pesticides,
improvement of irrigation system, and increased agricultural mechanization
all would have positive impacts on rice productivity.
In this regard, however, we may assume that global warming trend and
it’s subsequent climate change occurred in Korea during the last half a
century would affect minimum impacts on rice production because if
climate change impacts had been so serious as most scientists have
speculated, such great productivity increase would never have been possible.
Or, it might also be possible to assume that climate change would provide
some positive effects on crop production in Korea. In fact, other crop
productivities like wheat and soybean have also greatly increased, more
than 60 % during the last 4 decades as shown in Fig. 5. Productivities of
most fruit and vegetable products have also greatly increased.

Fig. 5. Trend of major grain productivity changes during 1970-2010 in Korea.
In such countries like Korea, as climate becomes warmer, the possible
growing period for outdoor crop is getting longer. The first day of frost
would be delayed and the last day of frost is advancing, clearly extending
the frost-free period. In Korea’s case the first day of frost has been delayed
by 2.9 days per decade while the last day of frost has advanced by 3.8 days
per decade, extending the frost-free period by 6.7 days per decade(Fig. 6).
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