Sustainability science : managing risk and resilience for sustainable development

288 Pages·2014·33.396 MB·English

by  Per Becker

SUSTAINABILITY
SCIENCE
MANAGING RISK AND
RESILIENCE FOR SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
P B
er ecker
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Acknowledgments
Issues of risk, resilience, and sustainability touch all of us on this planet. I have throughout
my career had the opportunity to work in many different contexts. I have worked in academia
and for local and national authorities, international organizations, and even a short period for
a consultancy firm. For a large part of my career I have been involved in humanitarian assis-
tance and international development cooperation, which together with my later academic
career have taken me to most continents. This has provided me with ample opportunity to
meet a lot of people, who in different ways have shared their views, experiences, skills, and
knowledge concerning various aspects covered in this book. I am eternally grateful for all the
time and kind attention they have given me.
I would also like to thank all my colleagues with whom I have had so many interesting
dialogues concerning philosophical, theoretical, and practical issues captured in this book.
Especially my friends and colleagues at Lund University, Swedish Civil Contingency Agency
(MSB), and within the Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, whom I have had most time
to work with, but also at African Centre for Disaster Studies, University of Edinburgh and
various international organizations and NGOs I have had the pleasure to spend time with
during my career. Moreover, I would like to thank the Environmental Change Institute (ECI)
at University of Oxford for hosting me while writing a substantial part of the book, and to
Riksbankens Jubileumsfond: The Swedish Foundation for Humanities and Social Sciences
(RJ) for facilitating the visit through their Nils-Eric Svensson Scholarship.
Finally, this book was conceived through a sometimes rather painful birth, with way too
many evenings and weekends of labor. I like to believe that I did not loose too much time
with my children, since they were sound asleep during most of my nocturnal writing sprees.
However, my wife has paid a significant price for the publication of this book, both in terms
of pulling most of the domestic weight in our otherwise more equal household, and in terms
of having a partner physically present in the house, but mentally somewhere completely
different. Thank you for supporting me through one of the more challenging but rewarding
processes of my career.
vii
C H A P T E R
1
Introducing the Book
INTRODUCTION
The world population has been estimated to have increased almost six times (M addison,
2001: 28), the global economy around 50 times (Maddison, 2001) and the global CO emis-
2
sions about 500 times (Bodenet et al., 2011) from the industrial revolution to the end of
our last century. This development continues to place increasing strains on the world’s
natural resources and environment (Fan & Qi, 2010; Gadda & Gasparatos, 2009; Grimble
et al., 2002; Kalas, 2000; Komatsuzaki & Ohta, 2007; Syvitski, 2008), while vast inequalities
persist and even deepen both between and within states (Bywaters, 2009; Gorringe et al.,
2009; O’Brien et al., 2009; Rist, 2006: 18). Although the last century saw a global increase
in life expectancy (Riley, 2001) and a decrease in child mortality (Ahmad et al., 2000: 1175)
and adult illiteracy (Parris & Kates, 2003: 8070–8071), economic development was highly
unequal rendering the same wealth in the final decade of the century to the richest 1% in
the world as to the poorest 57% ( Milanovic, 2002: 50). In order to reduce poverty while
striving toward a more viable use of natural resources, it is vital to make future develop-
ment more sustainable.
Regardless of whether one focuses on economic growth or on more human-centered
parameters, most uses of the concept of development have one thing in common. They proj-
ect some sort of scenario into the future, in which the variables of interest develop over time
along a preferred expected course. This scenario is in modern society not believed to be pre-
destined or predetermined in any way, but is dependent on a wide range of human activity,
environmental processes, etc. The complexity and dynamic character of the world is, instead,
continuously creating a multitude of possible futures (Japp & Kusche, 2008: 80), causing
uncertainty as to what real development will materialize (Figure 1.1).
Being unable to see into the future, as well as being largely incapable of predicting it
(Simon, 1990: 7–8; Taleb, 2008), modern individuals, organizations and societies resort to
the notion of risk in order to make sense of their uncertain world (Zinn, 2008: 3–10). Risk
is a contested concept, but to be able to talk about risk at all entails some kind of idea of
uncertain futures as well as of their potential impacts on what human beings value (Renn,
1998: 51). This use of risk also entails that risk must be defined in relation to some preferred
expected outcome (Kaplan & Garrick, 1981; Kaplan, 1997; Kaplan et al., 2001; Luhmann, 1995:
307–310; Zinn, 2008: 4). If risk is related to potential deviations from a preferred expected
future, we must endeavor to reduce such risk to safeguard our development objectives.
Sustainability Science
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2 1. INTRODUCING THE BOOK
FIGURE 1.1 What world do we want?
There are many courses of events and their underlying processes that may negatively
impact development, in either the short or the long term. Abrupt changes in political lead-
ership, global financial crises, algal bloom, epidemic outbreak, droughts, cyclones and out-
breaks of communal violence are just a few examples of initiating events that may set off
destructive courses of events. Behind these often dramatic courses of events lay processes of
change which are less sensational, but may have far-reaching indirect impacts, such as envi-
ronmental degradation (Geist & Lambin, 2004; Lewis, 2006; Pimentel, 2006), demographic
and socio-economic processes (Satterthwaite et al., 2009: 11–19; Wisner et al., 2004: 62–74),
globalization (Beck, 1999; Murad & Mazumder, 2009; Yusuf, 2003), changing antagonistic
threats (Kaldor, 1999; Kegley, 2003) and the increasing complexity of modern society (Per-
row, 1999; 2008). In addition, we have the mounting threats of climate change, not only
potentially increasing the frequency and intensity of destructive extreme weather events
(Elsner et al., 2008; Gravelle & Mimura, 2008; Kasei et al., 2010; Nordhaus, 2006; von Storch
& Woth, 2008; Syvitski, 2008; Webster et al., 2005), but also changing everyday life for vast
numbers of people.
These courses of events and their underlying processes rarely exist in isolation, neither
from each other nor from the development activities and processes that they impact. It is thus
not only vital to ensure that development gains are durable in the face of destructive courses
of events and their underlying processes, but also that the means to reach the development
gains do not augment, or create new risks that hinder development for future generations
(WCED, 1987: 43) (Figure 1.2).
SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE
3
PuRPosE of THE Book
FIGURE 1.2 We are keeping us dry for now, but what about later? Source: Photobank Gallery/Shutterstock.com.
PURPOSE OF THE BOOK
As I attempt to show in this book, the increasing complexity and dynamic character of our
world demand conceptual and practical approaches to sustainable development that help
us to grasp and manage uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity and dynamic change. I argue
that risk is a key concept in this context, as thinking about sustainability requires us to think
ahead into an uncertain future. I also reassert that the concept of resilience is central, and take
it further by providing a conceptual framework of resilience that also gives practical guid-
ance for analyzing and developing the resilience of societies, communities, organizations, etc.
This book is therefore necessarily transdisciplinary, drawing upon contributions from a wide
range of disciplines (e.g. anthropology, archaeology, design, engineering, geography, public
administration, sociology, etc.) and integrating them under the promising premise of Sustain-
ability Science. The premise of bringing together “scholarship and practice, global and local
perspectives from north and south, and disciplines across” all sciences (Clark & Dickson,
2003: 8060) to address the core challenges of humankind (Clark & Dickson, 2003; Kates et al.,
2001; Olsson & Jerneck, 2010).
Sustainability Science asserts that to facilitate the much needed shift toward sustainable
development, we must be able to span the range of spatial and temporal scales of vari-
ous phenomena, manage complexity, and recognize a wide range of perspectives as usable
SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE
4 1. INTRODUCING THE BOOK
knowledge from both society and science (Kates et al., 2001: 641). This is a formidable task,
but I intend to contribute by presenting one approach to risk, resilience and sustainability
that is designed to tackle it, leaving you to judge if this approach is useful for your purposes
or not.
The book is both descriptive, in the sense of describing how the world is, and prescriptive,
in the sense of prescribing what it ought to be and what we ought to do to get there. However,
I attempt to maintain scientific rigor in both, showing how traditional science and design sci-
ence can complement each other, when our needs for explanation and understanding of vari-
ous phenomena shift to needs for solving real world problems. In other words, shifting from
being mainly concerned with the pursuit of knowledge (Checkland, 1999: 50; Ravetz, 1996;
Weber, 1949) to focusing on designing artifacts for satisfying predefined purposes (Cook &
Ferris, 2007: 173; Poser, 1998: 85–87; Simon, 1996: 4–5, 114).
In short, the purpose of the book is to present a coherent framework for grasping and
addressing issues of sustainability in our increasingly complex and dynamic world.
DEMARCATION OF THE BOOK
Sustainable development is both conceptually and practically a broad and multifaceted
issue (Kates et al., 2001; WCED, 1987). It is an issue of paramount importance for the con-
tinued existence of the world, as we know it. At its core lies the idea that in planning for
the future, we must think about what to do and not to do today, in order to bring about that
future (Simon, 1990: 11). The main part of sustainability must in other words be forward-
looking, although we must also learn from our past and recognize our present challenges.
The Oxford Dictionary defines the word sustainable as “able to be upheld or defended”
(New Oxford American Dictionary, 2011). This indicates a somewhat double meaning, which
not only provides a linguistic link between safety and sustainability, but also indicates two
requisite parts for sustainable development. Safety, “the condition of being protected from
or unlikely to cause danger, risk, or injury” (New Oxford American Dictionary, 2011), is in
other words closely related to the notion of being “able to be defended”. Though, safety often
connotes immediate or short time spans, while sustainability normally connotes gazing fur-
ther into the future. That said, both entail acting now and Sustainability Science asserts the
necessity to be able to integrate such range of temporal scales (Kates et al., 2001: 641). Safety
is, in other words, a part of sustainability if looking beyond the immediate. If focusing on
the potential of future destructive courses of events, at least partly resulting from or related
to human activity, we typically assert that such activity or development is not sustainable.
While the same situation, but with an immediate focus, would instead evoke notions of an
unsafe condition or practice.
The other requisite part of sustainable development, related to the notion of being “able
to be upheld”, is equally important and brings into focus the importance of how we exploit
our resources to maintain or develop some aspect of society over time. Regardless of how
closely related these two parts are, this book will focus mainly on the notion of sustain-
ability in the sense of protecting what human beings value, now and in the future, and not
to the same extent on the notion of sustainability in the sense of management of our vital
resources.
SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE
5
sTRuCTuRE of THE Book
STRUCTURE OF THE BOOK
It can always be debated how to structure the contents of a book to best guide the read-
ers through such a multifaceted topic. I have chosen the way of dividing the book into parts
addressing issues of sustainability from different angles—the descriptive, the conceptual and
the transformative. Going from the concrete, to the abstract, and back to the concrete again. In
other words, in addition to the current introductory chapter, this book consists of three parts,
with three chapters each, and a concluding chapter (Figure 1.3).
The first part, Part I—The State of the World, set the stage in Chapter 2 by presenting a broad his-
torical overview of our development and past sustainability problems, of related social change
and of the invention of risk as a reaction to our increasing appreciation of our own agency.
Chapter 3 is devoted to our current sustainability challenges, as depicted in two strings of world
conferences starting in Stockholm in 1972 and now most lately in Rio again in 2012. I end the first
part with Chapter 4, presenting a comprehensive account of symptomatic events of the dire state
of our sustainability, which the final document from the latest world conference in Rio at last
includes as core sustainability challenges. The chapter also emphasizes the dynamic character
of our world by presenting a number of key processes of change that continuously transform it.
The second part, Part II—Approaching the World, is devoted to providing a coherent con-
ceptual framework for grasping and addressing sustainability challenges in our complex
and dynamic world. Chapter 5 presents a set of philosophical assumptions and key concepts
that provide the foundation for my approach to facilitating sustainable development, such as
development, sustainability, risk and resilience. Then, in Chapter 6, I operationalize the con-
cept of resilience by connecting the conceptual to the actual and link this approach to other
established approaches to risk, safety and sustainability. Finally, in Chapter 7, I elaborate
on why it is helpful to approach our world as a human–environment system, as well as on
how to do it. Including a number of key aspects of the intrinsically human in our human–
environment systems. Aspects that we still have to keep in mind when attempting to see parts
of our complex world as wholes.
The third part, Part III—Changing the World, starts in Chapter 8 by presenting ideas of sci-
ence and change. Here, I focus on the role of science for change and on demonstrating how
traditional science and design science complement each other and provide a rigorous way of
bridging the divide between “is” and “ought”. Chapter 9 prescribes what we must be able to
do in order to develop capacity to build a resilient society, and I end the last part with Chapter
10, presenting ideas describing and prescribing social change for a more sustainable world.
Finally, the book is concluded with my final remarks in Chapter 11, closing the attempted
rhetorical loop by tying the three parts together and reflecting on how each contribute to grasp-
ing and addressing issues of sustainability in our increasingly complex and dynamic world.
Part I Part II Part III
The State of the Approaching the Changing the
World World World
FIGURE 1.3 The three parts of the book.
SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE
6 1. INTRODUCING THE BOOK
CONCLUSION
Our world is in a dire state and to steer it toward a more sustainable future we must be able
to grasp and manage uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity and dynamic change. This is a truly
transdisciplinary endeavor, requiring the contribution of various disciplines, while integrat-
ing them under the emerging umbrella of Sustainability Science. Although direct conserva-
tion of natural resources also is a requisite for sustainability, this book is mainly focusing on
sustainability in the sense of protecting what human beings value, for our present as well as
for our future. The concepts of risk and resilience are central for this enterprise and constitute
vital frames for all three parts of this book.
SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE
C H A P T E R
2
Our Past Defining Our Present
INTRODUCTION
We are increasingly appreciating that we are rapidly approaching crossroads from which
there are no returns once we fail to choose the right direction (Rockström et al., 2009). We may
even have passed some of them already. This is however not the only time in history society
has been at such crossroads, although it may be the first time the entire planet is at stake. We
have been challenged before and we have prevailed. The question is if we can learn from our
past when understanding our present. I think we need to.
Although there are valid objections against mixing up the origins and the validity of an
idea, often referred to as the “genetic fallacy” (Cohen & Nagel, 1934: 388–390), there are strong
arguments for why history matters. One of the more influential of these comes from the great
sociologist Ernest Gellner (1989: 12), who do not object against the “genetic fallacy” in itself,
but against how it is mistakenly extrapolated to argue that we do not need to be concerned
with our past when assessing options for our future. Gellner advises instead that we study
our past in order to understand our options for our future, and not to prejudge our potential
choices (Gellner, 1989). “There are two very silly doctrines about knowledge and the world: that
we can do whatever we wish, and that everything is completely determined” (Hall, 1986: 5).
None of these standpoints holds in our dynamic and complex world. Social change over time
is instead the result of a combination of choices made in particular historical contexts that
influence what choices are possible. It is in other words not one necessary mechanism lead-
ing to social change, but instead a complex mix of economic, ideological and political factors
(Hall, 1986: 5–6).
This chapter attempts to present an overview of our history in relation to sustainability;
how we conquered the earth and how we changed the way we understand and interact with
our environment and among ourselves. Although such task is daunting and I am aware of the
inevitability of crude simplifications that may provoke devoted archaeologists, anthropolo-
gists, historians and sociologists, I view it as necessary to at least hint at the rich knowledge
that these disciplines and others have to offer to understand the core challenges for our pres-
ent and our future.
Sustainability Science
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