Table Of Content

Surviving the Climate Crisis This is the first textbook to adopt an integrated perspective of climate change in Australia, drawing on research detailed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( 2021, 2022) Sixth Assessment Reports to make it the most up- to-date resource available. It fills a knowledge gap in an ever-increasing hot topic for the country, its people, economy and environment. Australia has been identified by a number of respected sources as a ‘ climate change hotspot’, with all major sectors of the economy considered vulnerable or highly vulnerable to the anticipated adverse impacts of climate change. The chief industry sectors examined in this book include energy, transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, fisheries, forestry, tourism and mining. Other chapters focus on other key thematic areas, such as protected areas and world heritage sites ( including their natural and cultural values), coastal and island environments, biosecurity, biodiversity and ecosystem services, human health, water resources, cities and settlements, rural and regional areas, and Indigenous communities. Ideal for advanced undergraduate and graduate students with limited science backgrounds, this book will inform those undertaking business, management, sustainability, education, environmental, development or heritage studies and other social science programmes. Praise for the Book “This book is a climate change tour-de-force. Covering climate science and the history of climate knowledge, impacts past, present and future, and the solutions that we can, and must employ, it is an invaluable one-stop-shop for anyone engaged in the most challenging issue of our time.” - Lesley Hughes, Distinguished Professor of Biology, Macquarie University, Australia, and board mem- ber of Australia’s Climate Change Authority “Australia is on the frontlines of the climate crisis. Read Surviving the Climate Crisis by Stephen M. Turton to understand the science, the impacts, and the solutions to this defining threat.” - Michael Mann, Presidential Distinguished Professor, University of Pennsylvania, and author of The New Climate War Surviving the Climate Crisis Australian Perspectives and Solutions Stephen M. Turton First edition published 2023 by CRC Press 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300, Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 and by CRC Press 4 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, LLC © 2023 Stephen M. Turton Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences of their use. The authors and publishers have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication and apologize to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been obtained. If any copyright material has not been acknowledged please write and let us know so we may rectify in any future reprint. Except as permitted under U.S. Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced, transmitted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers. For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, access www.copyright.com or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. ( CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 9 78- 750-8400. For works that are not available on CCC please contact [email protected] Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks and are used only for identifica- tion and explanation without intent to infringe. ISBN: 9 78-1 -0 32-0 3953-4 ( hbk) ISBN: 9 78-1 -0 32-0 3947-3 ( pbk) ISBN: 9 78-1 -0 03-1 8990-9 ( ebk) DOI: 10.1201/9 781003189909 Typeset in Minion by codeMantra Contents Preface xi Acknowledgements xiii Author xv List of Acronyms xvii 1 Introduction 1 2 The Science of Climate Change 9 Introduction 9 Fundamentals of the Greenhouse Effect 9 Radiation balance 9 Understanding greenhouse gases and their sources and sinks 11 Drivers of Climate Variability and Change 15 Orbital forcing ( Milankovitch cycles) 15 Solar forcing 17 Volcanic forcing 18 Internal forcing 18 Anthropogenic forcing 19 Past Climates 20 P aleo-reference periods 21 Past 800 ka 21 Past 2 ka 24 Changes in the Modern Era 24 Dealing with certainty and uncertainty 24 Past 140 years 26 Greenhouse Gases 26 Global Mean Surface Temperature 27 Precipitation 27 Cryosphere Changes 28 Oceanic Changes 28 S ea-Level Changes 29 Hot and Cold Extreme Events 29 Poleward and Upward Shifts in Climate Zones and the Terrestrial Biosphere 29 Changes in Tropical Cyclones 30 Compound Extreme Events 30 Future Changes in Climate 30 Climate models 30 Shared socio-economic pathways 31 v vi Contents Projections of future climates 32 Global Mean Surface Air Temperature 32 Carbon Cycle Changes 33 Precipitation and Water Cycle Changes 33 Oceanic Changes 34 S ea-Level Changes 34 Hot and Cold Extreme Events 34 Cryosphere Changes 35 Changes in Tropical and Extra-Tropical Cyclones 35 Compound Extreme Events 35 3 The Climate of Australia: Past, Present and Future 37 Introduction 37 Past Climates 37 Present Climates 40 Climate drivers 40 Pacific Decadal Oscillation 40 El Niño Southern Oscillation 41 Indian Ocean Dipole 43 Southern Annular Mode 44 Madden-Julian Oscillation 44 Climate types 45 Historical Changes in Climate 47 Changes in key regional climate indicators 48 Temperature Averages and Extremes 48 Precipitation and Hydrology 48 Fire Weather 49 Oceanic Conditions 49 Sea Level 50 Tropical Cyclones 50 Compound Extreme Events 50 Future Climates 51 Projected changes in key regional climate indicators 51 Large-Scale Climate Drivers 51 Changes in Climate Types and Zones 52 Changes in Other Climate Indicators 52 Australia at 3°C Plus 54 4 Responding to Climate Change 57 Introduction 57 Conceptual Framework and Key Definitions 58 Natural, economic and social systems 58 Climate change impacts, exposure and sensitivity 59 Adaptive capacity 59 Vulnerability, coping capacity, resilience and risks 60 Planned adaptation and maladaptation 60 Mitigation 61 Climate-Resilient Pathways and Opportunities 62 Scenarios and pathways 62 Mitigation and adaptation pathways 63 International Climate Change Conventions and Agreements 68 United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change 68 Kyoto Protocol 69 Contents vii Paris Agreement 71 Intergovernmental S cience-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services 75 United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development 75 Sustainable Development Goals 75 Roles and Responsibilities for Climate Change Action in Australia 77 5 Natural Systems 83 Introduction 83 Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems 88 Climate impacts and risks 88 Coastal and Marine Ecosystems 93 Climate impacts and risks 93 Climate-Resilient Development Pathways for Ecosystems, Ecosystems Services and Biodiversity 98 Mitigation and adaptation strategies 98 Integration with the sustainable development goals 103 6 Economic Systems 105 Introduction 105 Energy and Transportation 107 S ocio-economic context 107 Managing risk 110 Climate impacts and risks 111 Climate-resilient development pathways and opportunities 112 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 112 Mitigation Pathways 113 Adaptation Pathways 117 Integration with the Sustainable Development Goals 118 Agriculture and Land 119 S ocio-economic context 119 Managing risk 121 Climate impacts and risks 122 Natural Capital 123 Quality and Quantity of Crops and Pastures 123 Biosecurity 126 Heat Stress on Livestock 126 Distribution of Crops and Livestock 127 Climate-resilient development pathways and opportunities 127 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 127 Mitigation Pathways 130 Adaptation Pathways 133 Integration with the Sustainable Development Goals 135 Mining 135 S ocio-economic context 135 Managing risk 139 Climate impacts and risks 139 Disturbance to Mine Infrastructure and Operations 140 Changing Access to Supply Chains and Distribution Routes 140 Challenges to Worker Health and Safety Conditions and Community Relations 141 Challenges to Environmental Management 141 Climate-resilient development pathways and opportunities 142 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 142 Mitigation Pathways 142 viii Contents Adaptation Pathways 144 Integration with the Sustainable Development Goals 147 Manufacturing and Construction 147 S ocio-economic context 147 Managing risk 147 Climate impacts and risks 149 Climate-resilient development pathways and opportunities 150 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 150 Mitigation Pathways 150 Adaptation Pathways 152 Integration with the Sustainable Development Goals 153 Tourism 154 S ocio-economic context 154 Managing risk 156 Climate impacts and risks 157 Impacts on Tourist Travel Decisions 157 Impacts on Tourism Destinations 158 Climate Change Threats to World Heritage Sites 159 Climate-resilient development pathways and opportunities 159 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 159 Mitigation Pathways 162 Adaptation Pathways 163 Integration with the Sustainable Development Goals 164 7 Social Systems 169 Introduction 169 Cities, Settlements and Built Environments 172 Climate impacts and risks 172 Rising Average Temperatures and Extreme Heatwaves 174 Changes in Rainfall 175 Water Scarcity 175 Bushfire Risk 176 Rising Sea Levels 177 Human Health and Well-Being 178 Climate impacts and risks 178 Heatwaves 179 Bushfires 179 Water Scarcity 180 Floods and Storms 180 Indigenous Peoples 181 Background context 181 Climate impacts and risks 182 Climate mitigation and adaptation 184 Cross-Cutting Social Issues 184 Compound extreme events 184 Breakdown of institutions and governance systems 185 Climate-Resilient Development Pathways and Opportunities 186 Mitigation pathways 186 Adaptation pathways 188 A Leadership Role for Local Government 188 Contents ix Adaptation Strategies for Local Government Areas 190 Integration with the sustainable development goals 192 8 Synthesis 201 References 209 Index 229