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Supreme emergency Supreme emergency How Britain lives with the Bomb Andrew Corbett Manchester University Press Copyright © Andrew Corbett 2022 The right of Andrew Corbett to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. Published by Manchester University Press Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL www.manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 978 1 5261 4736 3 hardback First published 2022 The publisher has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for any external or third-party internet websites referred to in this book, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. Cover credit: CPOA(Phot) Tam McDonald/MOD Cover design: Abbey Akanbi, Manchester University Press Typeset by Cheshire Typesetting Ltd, Cuddington, Cheshire Contents Acknowledgements vi Abbreviations vii Introduction: an insider’s view 1 1 The War Game, a case study 6 2 Government, public and total war (1915–40) 18 3 Government, public and total war (1940–45) 36 4 From the Second World War to continuous at-sea deterrence 55 5 The Polaris replacement decision 98 6 Ethical considerations and wicked issues 144 7 British nuclear deterrence in the 21st century 177 Conclusion: dirty hands and the supreme emergency 224 Bibliography 228 Index 254 Acknowledgements No book is ever an individual effort – I may have done the writing, but I would not have done much of that without the patient support and guidance of Professor David Whetham and Professor Wyn Bowen, for which I am very grateful. I am very grateful to those senior policy-makers who gave so freely of their time to discuss some deeply visceral issues so openly with me. I hope I have done justice to the depth of feeling and moral engagement which they shared. I’d also like to extend my thanks to Dr Kristan Stoddart for his encouragement and ruthlessly constructive advice on this draft. Obviously the remaining errors and omissions are entirely my fault. I could not have achieved any of this without endless encouragement from my wife Dr Cynthia Larbey, who helped me persuade myself into doing this project and has supported me throughout, including those fruitless evenings trying to find out why the refences do not match any more; I would like to thank Cynthia for that and so many things. Abbreviations ABM anti-ballistic missile ACAE Advisory Committee on Atomic Energy AEBC Agriculture and Environment Biotechnology Commission ANF Atlantic nuclear force BBC British Broadcasting Corporation BBFC British Board of Film Censors (now Classification) BNDSG British Nuclear Deterrent Study Group CASD continuous at-sea deterrence CENTO Central Treaty Organisation CND Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament CO commanding officer COS Chiefs of Staff DAC Direct Action Committee DHSS Department of Health and Social Security (since 2001, responsibility largely under Department of Work and Pensions) DOPC Defence Overseas Policy Committee DS19 (MOD) Defence Secretariat 19 DSMA Defence and Security Media Advisory Committee DUS(P) deputy under-secretary (policy) FCO Foreign and Commonwealth Office GLCM ground-launched cruise missile HC Deb. House of Commons Debates HL Deb. House of Lords Debates HLG (NATO) High Level Group INF intermediate-range nuclear forces viii Abbreviations IRBM intermediate-range ballistic missile IVF in vitro fertilisation LRTNF long-range tactical nuclear forces MLF (NATO) Multi-Lateral Force MOD Ministry of Defence MRBM medium-range ballistic missile MRC Medical Research Council NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NCAWT National Council for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons Tests NPG (NATO) Nuclear Planning Group NPT Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty OR (Air Staff) Operational Requirement RAF Royal Air Force RUSI Royal United Services Institute SALT Strategic Arms Limitation Talks SDSR Strategic Defence and Security Review SIOP single integrated operating plan SLBM submarine-launched ballistic missile SLCM submarine-launched cruise missile SSBN ship – submersible, ballistic, nuclear TNA The National Archives UNSC United Nations Security Council USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics WAC BBC Written Archive Centre Introduction An insider’s view I am not an ethicist, but I have given a great deal of thought to the morality of the use of force and, in particular, the concept of nuclear deterrence. I have served in Polaris and Trident ballistic- missile submarines (ship – submersible, ballistic, nuclear or SSBN) on and off since 1986, including command of two Vanguard Class submarines, HMS Vengeance and HMS Vanguard, between 2003 and 2007. I therefore have had ample opportunity, and motivation, to reconcile the full potential of my personal responsibilities with some kind of moral compass. I was always content with the ethical and strategic aspects of my responsibilities, and I would discuss them with my ship’s company, but I could never be sure that I could articulate them in terms of which the Ministry of Defence (MOD) would approve. So, I asked within my ‘command chain’; fruitlessly. In hindsight, frustration at the inability of the MOD to provide official guidance to the commanding officer of an SSBN ultimately led me here; if the MOD cannot articulate the official rationale for the UK’s Strategic Nuclear Deterrent to its own SSBN commanding officers, what does that say for its ability to make a coherent argument in public? In the absence of formal guidance, I considered the available con- temporary academic literature. The rather binary options available seemed initially to be that either all those involved in the business of deterrence were acting immorally, or there was a shortfall in the literature. I do not accept that all of the very honourable professionals with whom I served are merely immoral, or too stupid to notice, or too hypocritical to care. Nor are they amoral in the Machiavellian realist sense; neither I, nor they, accept that there are no appropriate