Super Continent: The Logic of Eurasian Integration PDF
Preview Super Continent: The Logic of Eurasian Integration
Super Continent This page intentionally left blank Super Continent the logic of eurasian integration Kent E. Calder stanford university press Stanford, California Published under the auspices of the Johns Hopkins University SAIS Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies Stanford University Press Stanford, California © 2019 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system without the prior written permission of Stanford University Press. Printed in the United States of America on acid-free, archival-quality paper Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Calder, Kent E., author. Title: Super continent : the logic of Eurasian integration / Kent E. Calder. Description: Stanford, California : Stanford University Press, 2019. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2018038995 | ISBN 9781503608153 (cloth ; alk. paper) | ISBN 9781503609617 (pbk. ; alk. paper) | ISBN 9781503609624 (epub) Subjects: LCSH: Eurasia—Foreign economic relations. | Eurasia—Economic integration. | Eurasia—Economic conditions. | Eurasia—Foreign relations.| Geopolitics—Eurasia. | China—Foreign economic relations—Eurasia. | Eurasia—Foreign economic relations—China. Classification: LCC HF1583 .C36 2019 | DDC 337.5—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018038995 Cover design: George Kirkpatrick Typeset by Newgen in 10.5/13.5 Contents List of Figures, Maps, and Tables vii Preface ix Introduction xiii 1 Eurasian Reconnection and Renaissance 1 2 The Silk Road Syndrome 22 3 Eurasia in the Making 49 4 The Logic of Integration 70 5 Quiet Revolution in China 100 6 Southeast Asia: The First Experiment 122 7 Russia: An Unbalanced Entente 140 8 The New Europe: Deepening Synergies 160 9 Shadows and Critical Uncertainties 185 10 Toward a New World Order 206 11 Prospects and Policy Implications 232 Notes 253 Bibliography 307 Index 313 This page intentionally left blank Figures, Maps, and Tables figures 1.1 The fall (and rise) of Eurasia (1–2015 AD) 3 5.1 China’s rising share among major Eurasian economies 102 5.2 From exports to a domestic driver—changing demand structure in the Chinese economy (2000–2017) 103 5.3 China’s steel overcapacity 109 5.4 The reorientation of Eurasian trade: from the US toward China 118 7.1 China’s rising economic scale relative to Russia (1992–2017) 149 8.1 Rising EU reliance on the Chinese market (1990–2017) 168 8.2 Rising Chinese investment in Europe 169 maps 1.1 Land vs. sea routes 6 1.2 “Continental Drift” brings Europe and Asia closer in the post–Cold War world 14 2.1 The classic Silk Road 27 2.2 China’s Belt and Road Initiative 45 4.1 China dominates continental overland routes to the West 73 viii Figures, Maps, and Tables 4.2 Sino-Russian maritime access dilemmas 75 4.3 India’s tortured overland options 76 4.4 Contrasting energy supply options for Europe and East Asia 79 4.5 Deepening East-West railway routes across Eurasia 90 6.1 The prospective Kunming-Singapore railway network 131 7.1 China’s multiple pipeline options 144 7.2 The new Eurasian Arctic shipping frontier 146 8.1 Expansion of the European Union (1957–2013) 166 8.2 Germany, the Visegrad Four, and the shadow of Cold War divisions 174 8.3 The Orient/East-Mediterranean corridor 176 8.4 The 16+1 Cooperation Framework Nations 180 tables 1.1 Eurasia’s formidable scale in global context 7 1.2 Top ten most populous countries (2017) 8 1.3 The looming challenge of rising energy consumption in developing Eurasia 8 1.4 Systems of international order 18 3.1 Expanding Central Asian trade with Russia, China, and Turkey 58 4.1 Oil reserves, production, and exports (2017) 80 4.2 Natural gas reserves, production, and exports (2017) 80 6.1 The varied patterns of overseas Chinese presence in Southeast Asia (2011) 125 9.1 WMD prominence across Eurasia 196 Preface The expanses of eurasia have fascinated me ever since I was a boy. As I was growing up, it was terra incognita—exotic, foreign territory, and much of it off-limits to American citizens. As I began my academic career, the continent was in volatile transition, a world of fragile regimes whose demise opened up intriguing new worlds, epitomized by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the shah’s regime in Teheran. Today, Eurasia is being reconfigured once again. Its western and eastern poles are moving into an ever-deeper em- brace, with global political-economic implications. Those fateful developments, unfolding before our eyes, configure the story presented in the pages to follow. A century ago and more ago, a Su- per Continent began to rise on American shores, its connectivity assured by infrastructure—a transcontinental railway, consolidated by the Golden Spike at Promontory Point (1869), and a canal from the Atlantic to the Pacific, completed across Panama (1914). Only a few years ago, a second Super Con- tinent began to rise across Eurasia as well. What to make of this new Super Continent as it begins to rise has been one of the central intellectual concerns of my career. It animated my first post- doctoral academic endeavor—a course on comparative Asian political econo- my, cotaught at Harvard in the fall of 1979 with Roy Hofheinz, only months after the advent of China’s Four Modernizations. That course in turn inspired a book, The Eastasia Edge, coauthored with Hofheinz, that was among the first to view East Asian political-economic development comparatively and to
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