Studies in Social Psychology in World War II: Volume IV Measurement and Prediction

771 Pages·1950·25.039 MB·English

by  S. Starr Stouffer, Samuel, with L. Guttman, E. Suchman, P. Lazarsfeld

STUDIES IN SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY
IN WORLD WAR II
Volume 1. The American Soldier : Adjustment During Army Life
VolumVeoluImI.e ITIhIe.AmVEexpriecraimnenStsoldieron:MCaosmsbCaotmanmdunicItsatiAonftermath
Volume I. Measurementand Prediction
Thefour volumes inthis series were prepared and
edited under the auspices ofaSpecial Committee of
the Social Science Research Council,comprising
Frederick Osborn,Chairman
Leonard S.Cottrell,Jr.
Leland C.DeVinney
CarlI.Hovland
John M.Russell
Samuel A.Stoufferx
Donald Young, EOfficio
The data onwhich these volumes arebased were
collected by theResearch Branch ,Information and
Education Division,War Department,duringWorld
War II. Inmaking the data available,the War
Department assumes noresponsibility for the anal
yses andinterpretations contained inthese volumes,
which are the sole responsibility oftheauthors.
These volumes were prepared under agrant from
the Carnegie Corporation ofNew York. That cor
poration isnot,however,the author,owner,pub
lisher, orproprietor ofthis publication,and isnot
tobeunderstood asapproving by virtue ofits grant
any ofthe statements made or views expressed
therein.
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PAUL LAZARSFELD 1
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Copyright,1950,by Princeton University Press
London : Geoffrey Cumberlege ,Oxford University Press
22
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Printed in the United States of America by
The Colonial Press Inc., Clinton ,Mass.
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FOREWORD
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THIS volume organizes some new thinking and research on
I measurement and prediction in socialpsychology and sociology .
It grew out of the work of the Research Branch of the Information
and Education Division in the War Department in World War II.
Back of the substantive findings of the Research Branch,reported
in Volumes I and II ofthis series, stands a wide variety of method
ological research . Selected contributions are described in detail in
Volume III and in the present volume.
In Volume III,methodological problems involved in the use of
controlled experiments are analyzed in some detail, especially as
they apply to the field of mass communication.
In Volume IV the first eleven chapters deal with a theoretical and
empirical analysis of problems of measurement particularly the
development of models of ordered structures or scales and practical
procedures for testing their adaptability to a given area of socio
psychological content. Chapters 12 through 16 deal with problems
of prediction as illustrated by two of themajor efforts of prediction
made by the Research Branch .
Chapter 1 provides an introductory overview to the contributions
to measurement and Chapter 12 performs the same office for the
contributions to prediction .
These reports leave out other fields of methodological endeavor in
which the Research Branch was interested . To cite one example ,
efforts were made to improve methods of interviewing . Special
attention was given to informal and unstructured or partly struc
tured interviews , as supplementary to the more standard question
naire techniques generally used in the Branch . Some of this experi
ence hasbeen published elsewhere ."
Asthe introductory chapter in Volume I of this series pointed out,
themission of the Branch was one which might be called an engi
neering rather than a scientific one. To carry out the practical
1See,for example, Robert K.Merton and Patricia L. Kendall ,“ The Focused Inter
view," American Journalof Sociology , Vol.51,No.6 (May 1946),pp.541-557.
FOREWORD
engineering tasks, there was need for better research techniques .
Work on these techniques was, of necessity ,incidental to the main
responsibility of getting reasonably accurate information quickly
into the hands of those who needed the information for policy deci
sions. Hence,many of the social scientists,being keenly sensitized
to the shortcomings of techniques in current use, were often frus
trated at not having more time to turn away from immediate prob
lemsto intensive study of these methodological challenges . Never
theless, some progress was made, as will be seen .
In Volume I, Chapter 1, the view was expressed that the future
of social psychology and sociology calls for three developments :
1. Formulation of theories , at least of some limited generality ,
which can be operationally stated such that verification is possible ,
and from which predictions can bemade successfully tonew specific
instances .
2. Such theories demand that the objects of study be isolated and
accurately described , preferably bymeasurement.
3. Once the variables are identified , the test of adequacy of the
theory, in comparison with alternative theories, must be rigorous,
preferably evidenced by controlled experiment,and preferably repli
cated.
By itscontributions tomeasurement and prediction this volume
seeks toaccelerate the advance ofsocial science.
This isnot a textbook . Neither isita comprehensive treatise.
Rather,itorganizes,ascompactly aspossible,aconsiderable amount
offresh thinking on these problems,with copious illustrations from
Research Branch data.
While the basic concepts onwhich this volume isbased developed
in large part in response toneed for methodological improvement
ofpractical research operations in wartime,thinking has not stood
still since thewar. This volume incorporates subsequent reflection
and research,although all empirical data are from Research Branch
materials. Inthe measurement field,for example,Louis Guttman
has extended and generalized the approaches which he initiated for
use in the War Department,and Paul F.Lazarsfeld,whose work
began inthe closing stages ofthewar,has developed most ofhis sys
tematic theory subsequently . Completion ofthis volume has been
made possible by a grant to theSocial Science Research Council by
the Carnegie Corporation and by assistance from other sources.
The Harvard University Laboratory ofSocial Relations and the
Columbia University Bureau ofApplied SocialResearch have con
FOREWORD vii
tributed facilities and funds. In 1948 –1949 the RAND Corpora
tion under Air Force Project RAND made available to Harvard
University a grant for further theoretical and empirical re
search on socio -psychological measurement. While only partial
findings of the RAND study are available as this volume goes to
the printer , the experience on this study has been of inestimable
value in broadening the perspective of several of the authors of the
present volume and leading them to make late revisions in their
manuscripts — in some cases,revisions which are quite fundamental
in character. Other contributions to this volume also draw on
postwar research . John A. Clausen 's Chapters 15 and 16 on the
prediction of what veterans would do after discharge, for example ,
depend in part upon data collected by the Veterans Administration
as a follow -up of the same individuals studied by the Research
Branch.
Special acknowledgment is due to Frederick Mosteller , who con
tributed wise mathematical criticism to several of the chapters.
Preparation of the final manuscript was the responsibility of Stuart
Cleveland. The major proofreading task was performed by
Blanchard Lyon , who also prepared the index .
While this is amethodological volume, the contentmaterial used
for illustrative purposes in someof the chaptershas an intrinsic sub
stantive interest. For example , in Chapters 13 and 14,by Shirley
A.Star,tables are presented on the scores made on a psychoneurotic
inventory by all men in the United States inducted during a single
month . Data are given separately for each induction station .
These findings conceivably may have considerable impact on psy
chiatry, since they provide for the first time a bench mark against
which to interpret the almost fantastic variations from oneinduction
station to another throughout the nation in psychiatrists ' diagnoses .
Most of the chapters can beread by thenonmathematician . But
some chapters demand mathematical literacy , and all are written
for the serious student.
We expect some of the topics to be rather highly controversial.
Several chapters represent a challenge to conventional thinking in
this field. But they are not conceived by their authors as defini
tive. It is the hope that the study of these pages will inspire a
younger generation of social scientists to do better the tasks here
undertaken.
SAMUEL A. STOUFFER
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CONTENTS
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FOREWORD
CHAPTER 1. AN OVERVIEW OF THE CONTRIBUTIONS TO
SCALING AND SCALE THEORY
CHAPTER 2. THE PROBLEM OF ATTITUDE AND OPINION
MEASUREMENT
X CHAPTER 3. THE BASIS FOR SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS
CHAPTER 4. THE SCALOGRAM BOARD TECHNIQUE FOR
SCALE ANALYSIS
CHAPTER 5. THE UTILITY OF SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS 122
CHAPTER 6. RELATION OF SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS TO
OTHER TECHNIQUES 172
~ CHAPTER 7. THE INTENSITY COMPONENT IN ATTITUDE
AND OPINION RESEARCH 213
CHAPTER 8. PROBLEMS OF RELIABILITY 277
CHAPTER 9. THE PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS OF SCALE
ANALYSIS 312
CHAPTER 10. THE LOGICAL AND MATHEMATICAL FOUN
DATION OF LATENT STRUCTURE ANALYSIS 362
CONTENTS
CHAPTER 11. THE INTERPRETATION AND COMPUTATION
OF SOME LATENT STRUCTURES 413
CHAPTER 12. TWO CASE STUDIES IN PREDICTION : INTRO
DUCTORY COMMENTS 473
CHAPTER 13. THE SCREENING OF PSYCHONEUROTICS IN
THE ARMY: TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
TESTS 486
CHAPTER 14. THE SCREENING OF PSYCHONEUROTICS :
COMPARISON OF PSYCHIATRIC DIAGNOSES
AND TEST SCORES AT ALL INDUCTION STA
TIONS 548
CHAPTER 15. STUDIES OF THE POSTWAR PLANS OF SOL
DIERS:A PROBLEM IN PREDICTION 568
CHAPTER 16. STUDIES OF THE POSTWAR PLANS OF SOL
DIERS CONTINUED 623
APPENDIX . SOME NOTES ON SAMPLING AND QUESTION
NAIRE ADMINISTRATION BY THE RESEARCH
BRANCH
INDEX
MEASUREMENT AND PREDICTION