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Studies in Social Psychology in World War II: Volume IV Measurement and Prediction PDF

771 Pages·1950·25.039 MB·English
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STUDIES IN SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY IN WORLD WAR II Volume 1. The American Soldier : Adjustment During Army Life VolumVeoluImI.e ITIhIe.AmVEexpriecraimnenStsoldieron:MCaosmsbCaotmanmdunicItsatiAonftermath Volume I. Measurementand Prediction Thefour volumes inthis series were prepared and edited under the auspices ofaSpecial Committee of the Social Science Research Council,comprising Frederick Osborn,Chairman Leonard S.Cottrell,Jr. Leland C.DeVinney CarlI.Hovland John M.Russell Samuel A.Stoufferx Donald Young, EOfficio The data onwhich these volumes arebased were collected by theResearch Branch ,Information and Education Division,War Department,duringWorld War II. Inmaking the data available,the War Department assumes noresponsibility for the anal yses andinterpretations contained inthese volumes, which are the sole responsibility oftheauthors. These volumes were prepared under agrant from the Carnegie Corporation ofNew York. That cor poration isnot,however,the author,owner,pub lisher, orproprietor ofthis publication,and isnot tobeunderstood asapproving by virtue ofits grant any ofthe statements made or views expressed therein. 1111111111111111111 IIIIIIIII VOLUME I V 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MEASUREMENT 0 0 1 1 1 1 AND 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 111111111111111111111 PSARMLOUEUEIDLS GIA.BCUYSTTTTOMIUOAFNFNER 1111111111111111101111 1 1 1 EDWARD A.SUCHMAN 111 1 1 PAUL LAZARSFELD 1 F. 1 1 1 SHIRLEY A.STAR 111 1 1 JOHN A.CLAUSEN 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 O 11 D 1 O 1 DU 111 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 PRINCETON,NEW JERSEY 11 1 1 PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS 01 1 1 1 1 1950 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 IIIIIIDUUUUUUUUUU Copyright,1950,by Princeton University Press London : Geoffrey Cumberlege ,Oxford University Press 22 543 сар Printed in the United States of America by The Colonial Press Inc., Clinton ,Mass. UTILITULTIMIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII FOREWORD IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII THIS volume organizes some new thinking and research on I measurement and prediction in socialpsychology and sociology . It grew out of the work of the Research Branch of the Information and Education Division in the War Department in World War II. Back of the substantive findings of the Research Branch,reported in Volumes I and II ofthis series, stands a wide variety of method ological research . Selected contributions are described in detail in Volume III and in the present volume. In Volume III,methodological problems involved in the use of controlled experiments are analyzed in some detail, especially as they apply to the field of mass communication. In Volume IV the first eleven chapters deal with a theoretical and empirical analysis of problems of measurement particularly the development of models of ordered structures or scales and practical procedures for testing their adaptability to a given area of socio psychological content. Chapters 12 through 16 deal with problems of prediction as illustrated by two of themajor efforts of prediction made by the Research Branch . Chapter 1 provides an introductory overview to the contributions to measurement and Chapter 12 performs the same office for the contributions to prediction . These reports leave out other fields of methodological endeavor in which the Research Branch was interested . To cite one example , efforts were made to improve methods of interviewing . Special attention was given to informal and unstructured or partly struc tured interviews , as supplementary to the more standard question naire techniques generally used in the Branch . Some of this experi ence hasbeen published elsewhere ." Asthe introductory chapter in Volume I of this series pointed out, themission of the Branch was one which might be called an engi neering rather than a scientific one. To carry out the practical 1See,for example, Robert K.Merton and Patricia L. Kendall ,“ The Focused Inter view," American Journalof Sociology , Vol.51,No.6 (May 1946),pp.541-557. FOREWORD engineering tasks, there was need for better research techniques . Work on these techniques was, of necessity ,incidental to the main responsibility of getting reasonably accurate information quickly into the hands of those who needed the information for policy deci sions. Hence,many of the social scientists,being keenly sensitized to the shortcomings of techniques in current use, were often frus trated at not having more time to turn away from immediate prob lemsto intensive study of these methodological challenges . Never theless, some progress was made, as will be seen . In Volume I, Chapter 1, the view was expressed that the future of social psychology and sociology calls for three developments : 1. Formulation of theories , at least of some limited generality , which can be operationally stated such that verification is possible , and from which predictions can bemade successfully tonew specific instances . 2. Such theories demand that the objects of study be isolated and accurately described , preferably bymeasurement. 3. Once the variables are identified , the test of adequacy of the theory, in comparison with alternative theories, must be rigorous, preferably evidenced by controlled experiment,and preferably repli cated. By itscontributions tomeasurement and prediction this volume seeks toaccelerate the advance ofsocial science. This isnot a textbook . Neither isita comprehensive treatise. Rather,itorganizes,ascompactly aspossible,aconsiderable amount offresh thinking on these problems,with copious illustrations from Research Branch data. While the basic concepts onwhich this volume isbased developed in large part in response toneed for methodological improvement ofpractical research operations in wartime,thinking has not stood still since thewar. This volume incorporates subsequent reflection and research,although all empirical data are from Research Branch materials. Inthe measurement field,for example,Louis Guttman has extended and generalized the approaches which he initiated for use in the War Department,and Paul F.Lazarsfeld,whose work began inthe closing stages ofthewar,has developed most ofhis sys tematic theory subsequently . Completion ofthis volume has been made possible by a grant to theSocial Science Research Council by the Carnegie Corporation and by assistance from other sources. The Harvard University Laboratory ofSocial Relations and the Columbia University Bureau ofApplied SocialResearch have con FOREWORD vii tributed facilities and funds. In 1948 –1949 the RAND Corpora tion under Air Force Project RAND made available to Harvard University a grant for further theoretical and empirical re search on socio -psychological measurement. While only partial findings of the RAND study are available as this volume goes to the printer , the experience on this study has been of inestimable value in broadening the perspective of several of the authors of the present volume and leading them to make late revisions in their manuscripts — in some cases,revisions which are quite fundamental in character. Other contributions to this volume also draw on postwar research . John A. Clausen 's Chapters 15 and 16 on the prediction of what veterans would do after discharge, for example , depend in part upon data collected by the Veterans Administration as a follow -up of the same individuals studied by the Research Branch. Special acknowledgment is due to Frederick Mosteller , who con tributed wise mathematical criticism to several of the chapters. Preparation of the final manuscript was the responsibility of Stuart Cleveland. The major proofreading task was performed by Blanchard Lyon , who also prepared the index . While this is amethodological volume, the contentmaterial used for illustrative purposes in someof the chaptershas an intrinsic sub stantive interest. For example , in Chapters 13 and 14,by Shirley A.Star,tables are presented on the scores made on a psychoneurotic inventory by all men in the United States inducted during a single month . Data are given separately for each induction station . These findings conceivably may have considerable impact on psy chiatry, since they provide for the first time a bench mark against which to interpret the almost fantastic variations from oneinduction station to another throughout the nation in psychiatrists ' diagnoses . Most of the chapters can beread by thenonmathematician . But some chapters demand mathematical literacy , and all are written for the serious student. We expect some of the topics to be rather highly controversial. Several chapters represent a challenge to conventional thinking in this field. But they are not conceived by their authors as defini tive. It is the hope that the study of these pages will inspire a younger generation of social scientists to do better the tasks here undertaken. SAMUEL A. STOUFFER Sss_use#cc-by-nc-sa-4.0 e c c a et/2027/mdp.39015008582960http://www.hathitrust.org/ n . le/ d https://hdl.hancial-ShareAlike r e /mm o TC Mn Go N :48on- 23ti u -01-17Attrib 1 202ons m onCom d GenerateCreative DigitizedbyGoogle Originalfrom UNIVERSITYOFMICHIGAN IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII UMLIIIIIIIIIIIIII nnnnnnnn CONTENTS IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII FOREWORD CHAPTER 1. AN OVERVIEW OF THE CONTRIBUTIONS TO SCALING AND SCALE THEORY CHAPTER 2. THE PROBLEM OF ATTITUDE AND OPINION MEASUREMENT X CHAPTER 3. THE BASIS FOR SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS CHAPTER 4. THE SCALOGRAM BOARD TECHNIQUE FOR SCALE ANALYSIS CHAPTER 5. THE UTILITY OF SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS 122 CHAPTER 6. RELATION OF SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS TO OTHER TECHNIQUES 172 ~ CHAPTER 7. THE INTENSITY COMPONENT IN ATTITUDE AND OPINION RESEARCH 213 CHAPTER 8. PROBLEMS OF RELIABILITY 277 CHAPTER 9. THE PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS OF SCALE ANALYSIS 312 CHAPTER 10. THE LOGICAL AND MATHEMATICAL FOUN DATION OF LATENT STRUCTURE ANALYSIS 362 CONTENTS CHAPTER 11. THE INTERPRETATION AND COMPUTATION OF SOME LATENT STRUCTURES 413 CHAPTER 12. TWO CASE STUDIES IN PREDICTION : INTRO DUCTORY COMMENTS 473 CHAPTER 13. THE SCREENING OF PSYCHONEUROTICS IN THE ARMY: TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENT OF TESTS 486 CHAPTER 14. THE SCREENING OF PSYCHONEUROTICS : COMPARISON OF PSYCHIATRIC DIAGNOSES AND TEST SCORES AT ALL INDUCTION STA TIONS 548 CHAPTER 15. STUDIES OF THE POSTWAR PLANS OF SOL DIERS:A PROBLEM IN PREDICTION 568 CHAPTER 16. STUDIES OF THE POSTWAR PLANS OF SOL DIERS CONTINUED 623 APPENDIX . SOME NOTES ON SAMPLING AND QUESTION NAIRE ADMINISTRATION BY THE RESEARCH BRANCH INDEX MEASUREMENT AND PREDICTION

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