Structural transformation and natural resources

359 Pages·2013·12.582 MB·English

by  OECD

African 2 Algeria African Economic
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Chapter 1: Macroeconomic prospects for Africa Congo, Dem. Rep. and Natural Resources
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Chapter 2: Foreign investment, aid, remittances and tax revenue in Africa
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Chapter 3: Trade policies and regional integration in Africa Djibouti
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Chapter 4: Human development in Africa
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ISBN 978-92-64-20053-1 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT
412013021P1 BANK GROUP
African
Economic Outlook
2013
Structural Transformation and Natural Resources
AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT
BANK GROUP
AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK
DEVELOPMENT CENTRE OF THE ORGANISATION
FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME
ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA
The opinions expressed and arguments employed in this publication are the sole
responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the African
Development Bank Group, its Board of Directors, or the countries they represent;
the OECD, its Development Centre or the governments of their member countries;
the United Nations Development Programme; the Economic Commission for Africa;
the European Union; or those of the Secretariat of the African Caribbean and Pacific
Group of States or its member states.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of
or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and
boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
ISBN 978-92-64-20053-1 (print)
ISBN 978-92-64-20054-8 (PDF)
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/aeo-2013-en
Revised version, August 2013.
Details of revisions available at:
http://www.oecd.org/about/publishing/Corrigendum_AEO-2013_EN.pdf
Photo credits: Cover © Kotomiti Okuma, Serzh, Sarin Kunthong, Pierre-Yves Babelon, montego,
Kondor83, Andrejs Zavadskis, Ammit Jack, Nata-Lia, gillmar, Shutterstock/Heidi Brand, Potapov
Alexander, S. Tsuji, SeDmi, Anna Rassadnikova, xpixel, PHOTO FUN, alexyndr, Svitlana Kazachek,
Timothy Hodgkinson, Alex Staroseltsev - Shutterstock.com
Corrigenda to the African Economic Outlook may be found on line at:
www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en
© African Development Bank, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development,
United Nations Development Programme, Economic Commission for Africa (2013).
You can copy, download or print the content of this publication for your own use, and you can include excerpts
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2 African Economic Outlook © AfDB, OECD, UNDP, ECA 2013
Foreword
At the dawn of the new millennium the African Economic Outlook (AEO) was born out of the
recognition that the continent needed a high-quality, independent tool for policy makers and
analysts, investors, journalists, academics and students to monitor Africa’s economic development
on a continuing basis. Because Africa is made up of so many different, fast-changing countries,
such a tool would need to embrace the short-term performance of individual economies in their
regional context; and, because development is multi-faceted, it would need to bring together the
macroeconomic, structural and social dimensions. Over the years the partnership broadened,
with the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and the United Nations Development Programme
(UNDP) joining founding partners the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the OECD
Development Centre, supported by the European Commission and the African, Caribbean and
Pacific (ACP) states secretariat, as full AEO partners. Coverage has expanded from 22 countries to
53, with only Somalia yet to be included.
Today the AEO is the only annual report that monitors in detail the economic performance
of 53 individual countries on the continent, using a strictly comparable analytical framework.
This is made possible by the combination of the expertise, know-how and networks of the four
AEO partner institutions: country notes are generated by AfDB researchers, country economists
and statisticians in collaboration with experts from the OECD Development Centre, UNDP and
ECA. They collect data and information from national statistics offices, ministries, investors, civil
society actors and foreign partners to produce a comprehensive analysis of recent developments
and undertake original two-year macroeconomic projections.
This report, the twelfth edition of the AEO, features in Part one an overview of Africa´s
performance and prospects and in Part two an in-depth analysis of a special theme of particular
importance for the continent: Structural Transformation and Natural Resources. Part three
comprises two-page summaries of the 53 country notes. The report also includes a rich statistical
annex. It is available in English, French and, in an abridged version, Portuguese.
The complete AEO, including full country notes, can be accessed free of charge on the
common website of the AEO partners: www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/ as well as on the
OECD iLibrary: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/aeo-2013-en. This 2013 edition features two major
innovations: the website can now be accessed easily from smartphones and tablet computers;
and six regional volumes with full country notes are available from the website for Central,
East, North, Southern and West Africa (in English and French), and for African Portuguese-
speaking countries (in Portuguese).
© AfDB, OECD, UNDP, ECA 2013 African Economic Outlook 3

Editorial
This twelfth edition of the African Economic Outlook report coincides with the 50th anniversary
of the Organisation of African Unity, now the African Union. By drawing the big picture of the
continent’s economic performance, while capturing the diversity of its achievements and
identifying challenges at national level, our report provides a timely analysis of the recent
economic developments underpinning Africa’s progress towards freedom, unity and better lives
for Africans.
We find that over the last decade greater stability, sound macroeconomic policies, improved
terms of trade and blossoming partnerships with emerging economies have widened the economic
policy space of African policy makers: African nations are freer than ever to choose their own
development paths. Indeed, the continent’s economic outlook for 2013 and 2014 is promising,
confirming its healthy resilience to internal and external shocks and its role as a growth pole in an
ailing global economy. Africa´s economy is projected to grow by 4.8% in 2013 and accelerate further
to 5.3% in 2014. The main sources of dynamism are expected to be the expansion of agricultural
production, robust growth in services and a rise in oil production and mining. This relatively
broad-based pattern of growth will be underpinned by the continued increase of external financial
flows and a resurgence in domestic demand driven by consumption and investment.
Progress towards economic integration has, unfortunately, been slow. The vision for integration
is clear and ambitious regional initiatives chart the right path: but the pace of implementation
has been far too slow to unlock the continent’s enormous potential and turn its recent episode of
high growth into economic take-off. To compete successfully in the global economy, Africa still
needs more bridges and roads, swifter trade procedures, higher levels of cross-border trade and
investment and, last but not least, better institutions and bureaucracies skilled in public policy
co-ordination.
Finally, while the steady economic progress of African economies has improved the lives of
many, this edition of the African Economic Outlook argues that it is not enough: now is the time to
step up the tempo. More equitable human development requires that African countries accelerate
their economic transformation, so they can become more competitive and create more gainful
jobs. Africa’s natural wealth, including agriculture, can be the basis for such transformation,
but only if the right policies are put in place. African countries need to invest consistently in
human and physical capacity, manage revenues wisely, strengthen macroeconomic management,
encourage intersector linkages, limit rent-seeking risks and boost trade.
We commend this report, which is based on our institutions’ complementary expertise and
networks. It is our wish that it will be useful in supporting policy and decisions among African
governments and other stakeholders.
Donald Kaberuka Angel Gurría Helen Clark Carlos Lopes
President, Secretary-General, Administrator, UN Under-Secre-
African Organisation for United Nations tary-General and
Development Economic Development Executive Secretary
Bank Group, Co-operation and Programme, of the Economic
Tunis Development, Paris New York Commission for
Africa, Addis Ababa
© AfDB, OECD, UNDP, ECA 2013 African Economic Outlook 5
Acknowledgements
The African Economic Outlook was prepared by a consortium of four teams from the African
Development Bank (AfDB), the OECD Development Centre, the United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP) and the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA). The Outlook benefitted
from the overall guidance of Mthuli Ncube (Chief Economist and Vice President, AfDB), Mario
Pezzini (Director, OECD Development Centre), Pedro Conceição (Chief Economist and Head of the
Strategic Advisory Unit, Regional Bureau for Africa, UNDP) and Emmanuel Nnadozie (Director of
the Macroeconomic Policy Division, ECA). Willi Leibfritz was the Coordinator.
The AfDB team was led by Steve Kayizzi-Mugerwa, Charles Lufumpa, Abebe Shimeles and
Beejaye Kokil. The AfDB task manager was Anthony Simpasa. Key team members included
Ahmed Moummi, Adeleke Salami, Anna von Wachenfelt and Lauréline Pla. The team at the OECD
Development Centre was led by Henri-Bernard Solignac-Lecomte, while the team at the UNDP was
led by Angela Lusigi, and the team at ECA by Adam El Hiraika.
Part one on Africa’s Performance and Prospects was drafted by Willi Leibfritz, based on the
forecast provided by the AfDB Statistics Department (Chapter 1), Gregory De Paepe (Chapter 2),
Emmanuel Chinyama, Siope Ofa and Simon Mevel (Chapter 3), Angela Lusigi (Chapter 4), Gregory
De Paepe, Bakary Traoré and Marie Ahamada (Chapter 5). Part II on Structural Transformation and
Natural Resources was drafted by Jan Rieländer with Margaret McMillan (IFPRI), with key inputs
from James Robinson (Harvard University) and Abebe Shimeles, as well as San Bilal (ECDPM),
Somali Cerise, Coumba Ngalani Doucoure, Lisa Kurbiel (UNICEF) and Laura Recuero-Virto. Caroline
Helmreich and Bakary Traoré provided very able research assistance, as well as Mélanie Favrot,
Estelle Plat and Pedro Sousa.
In collaboration with economists from the partner institutions and under the overall guidance
of the AfDB Regional Directors and Lead Economists, all AfDB country economists have contributed
to the country notes. The notes were drafted by: Kossi Robert Eguida (Algeria), Joel Muzima
(Angola), El Hadji Fall and Daniel Ndoye (Benin), Rogers Dhliwayo and Penina Kariuki (Botswana),
Richard-Antonin Doffonsou (Burkina Faso), Sibaye Joel Tokindang (Burundi), Aissatou Gueye and
Facinet Sylla (Cameroun), Heloisa Marone and Adalbert Nshimyumuremyi (Cape Verde), Kalidou
Diallo (Central African Republic), Claude N’Kodia (Chad), Philippe Trape (Comoros), Nouridine
Kane Dia (Congo, Rep.), Steve Gui-Diby, Seraphine Wakana and Léonce Yapo (Congo Dem. Rep.),
Daniel Ndoye (Côte d´Ivoire), Audrey Vergnes (Djibouti), Charles Muthuthi and Jan Rieländer
(Egypt), Ahmed Moummi (Equatorial Guinea), Adeleke Salami (Eritrea), Samuel Bwalya, Julianne
Deitch and Admit Wondifr Zerihun (Ethiopia), Pascal Yembiline (Gabon), Jamal Zayid (Gambia), Pa
Lamin Beyai, Gregory De Paepe and Eline Okudzeto (Ghana), Idrissa Diagne and Olivier Manlan
(Guinea), Toussaint Houeninvo and Luca Monge Roffarello (Guinea-Bissau), Walter Odero (Kenya),
Edirisa Nseera (Lesotho), Patrick Hettinger (Liberia), Vincent Castel and Sahar Rad (Libya), Jean
Marie Vianey Dabire (Madagascar), Peter Mwanakatwe (Malawi), Mamadou Diagne and Hamaciré
Dicko (Mali), Alassane Diabate (Mauritania), Martha Phiri (Mauritius), Fatima-Zohra Alaoui,
Catherine Baumont-Keita and Bakary Traoré (Morocco), Andre Almeida-Santos, Gregory De
Paepe and Manuel Filipe (Mozambique), George J. Honde (Namibia), Richard-Antonin Doffonsou
and Souleymane Abdallah (Niger), John Kofi Baffoe and Colleen Zamba (Nigeria), Edward Batte
Sennoga and Andrew Mold (Rwanda), Flavio Soares Da Gama (São Tomé & Príncipe), Khadidiatou
Gassama and Toussaint Houeninvo (Senegal), Susan Mpande (Seychelles), Jamal Zayid (Sierra
Leone), Wolassa Lawisso Kumo, Jean-Philippe Stijns and Nii Moi Thompson (South Africa), Joseph
Muvawala (South Sudan), Suwareh Darbo and Kabbashi M. Suliman (Sudan), Albert Mafusire and
Zuzana Brixiova (Swaziland), Prosper Charle and Amarakoon Bandara (Tanzania), Carpophore
Ntagungira and Nicolas Kazadi (Togo), Mickaelle Chauvin, Laura Recuero-Virto, Hatem Salah
and Emmanuele Santi (Tunisia), Vera-Kintu Oling and Alex Warren-Rodriguez (Uganda),
6 African Economic Outlook © AfDB, OECD, UNDP, ECA 2013
Emmanuel Chinyama and Ndoli Kalumiya (Zambia), Mary Manneko Monyau and Damoni Kitabire
(Zimbabwe). The work on the country notes greatly benefited from the valuable contributions of
local consultants.
The committee of peer reviewers of the country notes included: Elizabeth Asiedu, Dawit
Birhanu, Jeffrey R. Dayton-Johnson, Sylvain Dessy, Anne-Marie Gourjeon, Caroline Lambert,
Noah Mutoti, Pierre Pestieau, Helmut Reisen, Jean-Michel Salmon, Lucia Wegner, and a team
of AfDB economists comprising John C. Anyanwu, Yannis Arvanitis, Ousman Gajigo, Gilbert
Galibaka, Daniel Zerfu Gurara, Basil Jones, Thierry Kangoye, Ralf Krüger, Ahmed Moummi, Emelly
Mutambatsere, Guirane Samba Ndiaye, Peter Ondiege, Barfour Osei, Jacob Oduor, Richard Schiere,
Anthony Simpasa, Thouraya Triki, Audrey Verdier-Chouchane and Nadège Désirée Yaméogo.
The macroeconomic framework and database used to produce the forecast and statistical
annex was managed by Beejaye Kokil and Koua Louis Kouakou at the AfDB. Valuable statistical
inputs for updating the database and running the AEO model were provided by the team of
stasticians in the Statistics Department of the AfDB.
The project also benefited from the assistance provided by Yvette Chanvoédou at the OECD
Development Centre and Rhoda Bangurah, Josiane Koné, Abiana Nelson and Imen Rabai in the
Development Research Department of the AfDB.
The report benefited from extremely valuable inputs and comments from a large number of
African government representatives, private-sector operators, civil society members, country
economists and sector specialists in the AfDB country operations departments and Field Offices,
experts in the European Commission, as well as the Directorate for Development Cooperation, the
Sahel and West Africa Club, the NEPAD-OECD Investment Intiative, the Directorate for Science,
Technology and Industry, and the Economics Department of the OECD.
Part two on Structural Transformation and Natural Resources drew heavily from the knowledge
of international experts gathered in Paris on November 23, 2012: Sambit Bhattacharyya (University
of Sussex), Juana De Catheu (OECD), David Doepel (The Doepel Group Pty Ltd), Peter Eigen (EITI),
Masuma Farooki (Raw Materials Group), Louise Fox (World Bank), James Greene (OECD), Raphael
Kaplinsky (The Open University), Louis Maréchal (French Ministry of Foreign Affairs), Jörg Mayer
(UNCTAD), Alain Pénelon (COMIFAC), Claudine Sigam (UNCTAD), Benjamin Turok (South African
Member of Parliament, ANC), Anthony Venables (Oxford University), Mauricio Villafuerte (IMF),
Christian von Haldenwang (German Development Institute), Pierre Jacquemot (IRIS) and Jane
Korinek (OECD). In addition, Günther Nooke (German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation
and Development), Vijaya Ramachandran, Alan Gelb and Christian Meyer (all at CGD), Malte
Drobe (BGR), Bill Ascher (Claremont McKenna College), John Page (Brookings Institution), Martin
Kelly and Ben Willacy (both at Wood MacKenzie) provided valuable insights and data.
Diana Klein managed the editorial process and oversaw the production of the publication
in both paper and electronic forms with Vanda Legrandgérard, Erik Cervin-Edin, Ly-Na Dollon,
Elizabeth Nash and Louise Schets of the OECD Development Centre. Aida Buendía was responsible
for the layout and design of the report. The dedication of the editing, translation and proof reading
team was essential to the timely production of this report.

A generous grant from the European Development Fund, jointly managed by the European
Commission and the African, Caribbean and Pacific Secretariat, was essential to initiating and
sustaining the project. Additional financial support by Belgium, France, Ireland, Portugal, Spain
and Switzerland is gratefully acknowledged.
The AEO team remembers fondly their UNDP colleague Sebastian Levine (1969-2013),
who contributed to the 2012 and 2013 editions of the Outlook.
© AfDB, OECD, UNDP, ECA 2013 African Economic Outlook 7

Table of contents
Executive summary ............................................................................................................. 10

Part one: Africa’s performance and prospects
Chapter 1: Macroeconomic prospects for Africa ........................................................................ 17
Chapter 2: Foreign investment, aid, remittances and tax revenue in Africa ................................ 43
Chapter 3: Trade policies and regional integration in Africa ...................................................... 65
Chapter 4: Human development in Africa................................................................................... 73
Chapter 5: Political and economic governance in Africa ............................................................. 89

Part two: Special theme
Chapter 6: Structural transformation and natural resources in Africa ............................................... 111
Part three: Country notes ...................................................................................................................... 189
Full-length country notes available on www.africaneconomicoutlook.org
Algeria Ethiopia Niger
Angola Gabon Nigeria
Benin Gambia Rwanda
Botswana Ghana São Tomé and Príncipe
Burkina Faso Guinea Senegal
Burundi Guinea-Bissau Seychelles
Cameroon Kenya Sierra Leone
Cape Verde Lesotho South Africa
Central African Rep. Liberia South Sudan
Chad Libya Sudan
Comoros Madagascar Swaziland
Congo, Dem. Rep. Malawi Tanzania
Congo, Rep. Mali Togo
Côte d’Ivoire Mauritania Tunisia
Djibouti Mauritius Uganda
Egypt Morocco Zambia
Equatorial Guinea Mozambique Zimbabwe
Eritrea Namibia
Part four: Statistical annex .................................................................................................................... 297
© AfDB, OECD, UNDP, ECA 2013 African Economic Outlook 9