Structural crisis and institutional change in modern capitalism : French capitalism in transition

291 Pages·2017·1.49 MB·English

by  AMABLE, BRUNO

Structural Crisis and Institutional Change
in Modern Capitalism

Structural Crisis and
Institutional Change in
Modern Capitalism
French Capitalism in Transition
Bruno Amable
1
3
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OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,13/2/2017,SPi
Contents
ListofFigures vii
ListofTables xi
Introduction 1
1. TheSystemicCrisesofFrenchCapitalism 11
2. OppositionBetweenTwoEconomicandSocialModels 56
3. TheSearchforaNewModel 96
4. TheUnsolvedContradictionsoftheModernists 183
Conclusion 239
References 249
IndexofNames 261
GeneralIndex 266

List of Figures
1.1. GDPpercapita(Log)(Index1980=1).Datasource:AMECO
(annualmacro-economicdatabaseoftheEuropeanCommission). 12
1.2. GDPpercapita,estimatedtrendgrowthrateonarollingten-year
windowwith95%confidenceintervals.Datasource:INSEE. 12
1.3. Labourproductivity(Log)(Index1980=1).Datasource:EUKLEMS. 13
1.4. GDPperhourworked(constantprices,USD,PPP2005).
Datasource:OECD. 14
1.5. Unemploymentrate,1960–2013.Datasource:AMECO. 15
1.6. Percentageofthelabourforceworkinglessthantwentyhoursperweek.
Datasource:OECD. 16
1.7. Employmentrate,allpersons.Datasource:OECD. 17
1.8. Employmentratesofprimeage(25–54)individuals.Datasource:OECD. 18
1.9. Employmentratesofseniors(over55).Datasource:OECD. 18
1.10. Currentaccountbalance(percentageofGDP).
Datasource:OECD,economicoutlookdatabase. 19
1.11. Unitlabourcosts(Index1995=100).Datasource:OECD. 20
1.12. Labourcompensationperhourworked(Index1995=100).
Datasource:OECD. 20
1.13. Realeffectiveexchangerate(1989–92average=100)basedon
unitlabourcosts(totaleconomy).Performancerelativeto
therestoftheformerEU-15(doubleexportweights).
Datasource:AMECO. 21
1.14. DIRDE(DépenseIntérieuredeRechercheetDéveloppementdes
Entreprises)asapercentageofGDP.Datasource:OECD. 22
1.15. Indexofindustrialproduction(100=1991)GDPpercapita.
Datasource:OECD. 23
1.16. Combinedcorporateincometaxrate.Datasource:OECD. 25
1.17. Indexofrealestateprices(100=1996).Datasource:ECB. 25
1.18. Publicdebt(percentageofGDP).Datasource:AMECO. 26
1.19. Top1%incomeshare.Datasource:WorldTopIncomeDatabase. 27
1.20. Gini(disposableincome,posttaxesandtransfers).
Datasource:OECD. 28
ListofFigures
1.21. Povertyrate(Povertyline60%)in2012.Datasource:OECD. 28
1.22. Institutionalchangeandeconomicdynamics.
TakenfromAmableandPalombarini(2005:268). 45
1.23. Votedistributionatthefirstroundofthepresidentialelections
asapercentageofregisteredvoters.Datasource:Ministèredel’Intérieur. 51
1.24. Monthlyevolutionoftheconfidencelevelofpresidents.
Datasource:TNSSofres. 52
1.25. Coefficientsofanorderedlogitmodelforthelevelof
satisfactionwiththegovernmentinFrance.Data:ESSrounds1to6. 53
1.26. Coefficientsofanorderedlogitmodelforthelevelof
satisfactionwiththegovernment.Data:ESSround7. 54
1.27. Coefficientsofanorderedlogitmodelforthelevelof
satisfactionwiththeeconomicsituation.Data:ESSround7. 54
2.1. GDPpercapita(constant1938francs,logarithmicscale),
1890–1994.Datasource:CEPIIsérieslonguesmacroéconomiques. 57
2.2. GDPsharebyactivity.Datasource:CEPIIsérieslongues
macroéconomiques. 57
2.3. Employmentshares.Datasource:INSEE. 58
2.4. Medianageofnetcapital.Datasource:
CEPIIsérieslonguesmacroéconomiques. 58
2.5. Militaryandunemployedasashareoftheactivepopulation.
Datasource:CEPIIsérieslonguesmacroéconomiques. 59
2.6. Inflationrate(householdconsumption).Datasource:
CEPIIsérieslonguesmacroéconomiques. 60
2.7. CurrentaccountbalanceasapercentageofGDP.
Datasource:AMECO. 60
2.8. ExchangerateDM/FF.Datasource:CEPIIsérieslongues
macroéconomiques. 60
2.9. Profitrate(correctedfortheincreasedshareofwageearners).
Datasource:AMECO. 62
2.10. PercapitaGDPinEurope,1870–1913,usingpre-1913
boundaries($in1990internationalprices).
Datasource:StephenBroadberry’sEuroGDP2dataset. 63
2.11. PercapitaGDPinEurope,1913–50,usinginterwar
boundaries($in1990internationalprices).
Datasource:StephenBroadberry’sEuroGDP2dataset. 66
2.12. Fromsocialstructuretopoliticalpreferences. 84
2.13. Histogramsofpartygradesin1978. 87
3.1. Balanceoncurrenttransactionswiththerestoftheworld
(Nationalaccounts)(UBCA),percentageofGDP.Datasource:AMECO. 98
viii
ListofFigures
3.2. Theunemploymentrateinthe1980s.Datasource:AMECO. 100
3.3. Profitrate.Datasource:AMECO. 104
3.4. Inflationrate.Datasource:INSEE. 105
3.5. Investmentrate(FBCF/VA).Datasource:INSEE. 105
3.6. Coefficients(oddsratio)ofalogitregressionofthe‘yes’
voteattheMaastrichttreatyreferendumof1992against
dummyvariablesindicatingtowhichpartytheindividual
feelsclose.Datasource:1995electoralsurvey. 135
3.7. Coefficients(oddsratio)ofalogitregressionofthe‘yes’
voteattheMaastrichttreatyreferendumof1992against
dummyvariablesindicatingindividualsocialcharacteristics.
Datasource:1995electoralsurvey. 135
3.8. Coefficients(oddsratio)ofalogitregressionoftheagreement
withthestatementthattheEUwillhavenegative
consequencesforsocialprotectionagainstdummyvariables
indicatingtowhichpartytheindividualfeelsclose.
Datasource:1997electoralsurvey. 136
3.9. Coefficients(oddsratio)ofalogitregressionofthe‘no’vote
attheconstitutionaltreatyreferendumof2005against
dummyvariablesindicatingtowhichpartytheindividual
feelsclose.Datasource:electoralsurvey2007. 137
3.10. Coefficients(oddsratio)ofalogitregressionofadummy
variableexpressingthereliefiftheEuropeanUnionproject
wasabandonedagainstopinionsonprivatizationsfor
individualsclosetothegovernmentpartiesoftheright
ortheFN. 138
3.11. Coefficients(oddsratio)ofalogitregressionofadummyvariable
expressingthereliefiftheEuropeanUnionprojectwas
abandonedagainstopinionsonliberalismforindividuals
closetothegovernmentpartiesoftherightortheFN. 138
3.12. PercentageofrespondentswhotrustpresidentSarkozytosolve
France’scurrentproblems.Datasource:SurveyTNSSofres. 145
3.13. Financialdevelopmentindex.Datasource:ChinnandIto(2006). 148
4.1. CombinedgenerosityindexofthewelfarestateforFranceand
Germany.Datasource:ComparativeWelfareEntitlementDatabase. 192
4.2. Unemploymentgenerosityindex.Datasource:Comparative
WelfareEntitlementDatabase. 192
4.3. Sicknessgenerosityindex.Datasource:ComparativeWelfare
EntitlementDatabase. 193
4.4. Pensiongenerosityindex.Datasource:ComparativeWelfare
EntitlementDatabase. 193
ix