STRENGTHENING ECONOMIC RESILIENCE FOLLOWING THE COVID-19 CRISIS : a firm and industry perspective.

178 Pages·2021·8.879 MB·English

by  ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT.

Strengthening Economic
Resilience Following
the COVID-19 Crisis
A FIRM AND INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVE

Strengthening Economic
Resilience Following
the COVID‑19 Crisis
A FIRM AND INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVE
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The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of
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Please cite this publication as:
OECD (2021), Strengthening Economic Resilience Following the COVID-19 Crisis: A Firm and Industry Perspective, OECD
Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/2a7081d8-en.
ISBN 978-92-64-70595-1 (print)
ISBN 978-92-64-36285-7 (pdf)
Photo credits: Cover © Raphael Whittle, DesignRaphael Ltd.
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© OECD 2021
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FOREWORD  3
Foreword
This publication, Strengthening Economic Resilience Following the COVID-19 Crisis: A Firm and Industry
Perspective, adds a new and unique contribution to the OECD’s extensive body of work on the COVID-19
crisis and resilience. It aims to identify the factors that determine the impact of economic shocks and crises
– like the COVID-19 pandemic – on economies, by looking at firm and industry data that illustrate trends
beyond the aggregate, economy-wide level.
The work presents several topical chapters to identify areas of vulnerability across countries, industries,
firms and workers to better understand what issues might be the most pressing to address for a strong
recovery and future resilience. The impacts of the crisis on the business sector are heterogeneous and
multidimensional, making it crucial to analyse and understand which factors and channels can mitigate or
exacerbate the effects of shocks. This publication looks at industry characteristics, business dynamics,
digital transformation, international connectedness and inclusion across groups of workers, to identify
possible ways to achieve greater resilience and successfully navigate the world’s pressing economic and
social issues. This starts with a strong and inclusive recovery, but the report also pays special attention to
ways this period can be harnessed to achieve long-term progress towards the green and digital
transformations.
Perhaps most importantly, this publication aims to act as a source of evidence and inspiration for policy
makers. Building resilience into economies – and coming back stronger from periods of crisis – are
attainable goals that can be achieved through the design and implementation of well co-ordinated,
evidence-based policy. The analysis and recommendations presented in this publication are intended to
aid policy makers in this goal.
The OECD Committee on Industry, Innovation and Entrepreneurship (CIIE) declassified the contents of
Strengthening Economic Resilience Following the COVID-19 Crisis: A Firm and Industry Perspective as
follows, by written procedure: Chapter 1 on 6 July 2021; Chapter 2 and Annexes A to D on 2 July 2021;
Chapter 3 on 26 May 2021; Chapter 4 on 21 May 2021; Chapter 5 on 14 June 2021; Chapter 6 on 29 June
2021; and Chapter 7 on 18 May 2021. The OECD Secretariat prepared the report for publication.

STRENGTHENING ECONOMIC RESILIENCE FOLLOWING THE COVID-19 CRISIS © OECD 2021

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  5
Acknowledgements
This publication, Strengthening Economic Resilience Following the COVID-19 Crisis: A Firm and Industry
Perspective, has been produced by the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship (PIE) Division of the
OECD Directorate of Science, Technology and Innovation (STI). It has been guided by the leadership of
Chiara Criscuolo, Head of Division, alongside Andrew Wyckoff and Dirk Pilat, the Director and Deputy
Director of STI. This report is the result of the collective effort of dozens of people within and outside of the
Division, whom we wish to thank profusely for their work, inputs and dedication.
The publication was written and prepared by Nathalie Scholl, Alana Christensen Baker, Chiara Criscuolo
and Isabelle Desnoyers-James. The authors are very grateful to Márcio Carvalho, who provided
indispensable support throughout the process.
In addition to the above team, specialist authors worked extensively on contributions to the topical chapters
of this publication. Its comprehensive scope would not have been possible without the work and analysis
of these OECD PIE experts, particularly Leonidas Aristodemou, Sara Calligaris, Flavio Calvino, Antoine
Dechezleprêtre, Milenko Fadic, Nicolas Gonne, Joaquim Guilhoto, Alexander Himbert, Peter Horvát, Kohei
Kitazawa, Clara Kögel, Guy Lalanne, Francesco Manaresi, Lea Samek, Lynda Sanderson, Mariagrazia
Squicciarini, Rudy Verlhac, Colin Webb and Nori Yamano, as well as Peter Gal and Timo Leidecker from
the OECD Global Forum on Productivity.
Colleagues across other OECD Directorates and Divisions also generously gave their time to review and
guide content, including from the Economics Department; the Directorate for Employment, Labour and
Social Affairs; the Trade and Agriculture Directorate; and the Digital Economy Policy Division within STI.
Delegates from the CIIE and its Working Party on Industry Analysis (WPIA) also provided valuable
feedback to the publication throughout the process, including during Committee and Working Party
meetings and through webinars, which we are very grateful for.
All chapters were reviewed by Sarah Box, Dirk Pilat and Andrew Wyckoff of STI, whose direction, inputs,
and feedback were invaluable. The publication also owes much to Jennifer Lee, for administrative support
through the various stages of the process. Angela Gosmann assisted greatly in the publication stage.

STRENGTHENING ECONOMIC RESILIENCE FOLLOWING THE COVID-19 CRISIS © OECD 2021

TABLE OF CONTENTS  7
Table of contents
Foreword 3
Acknowledgements 5
Acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure 11
Executive summary 13
1 Economic resilience during crisis: Opportunities and challenges from COVID-19 15
Introduction 16
What made the difference? A summary of factors affecting resilience during COVID-19 17
Policy recommendations 20
Looking forward 23
References 26
Notes 26
2 Context of the crisis 27
Introduction 28
Containment measures in response to COVID-19 29
Support measures in response to containment responses 32
Economic consequences 34
References 38
Notes 40
3 Resilience across industries 43
Introduction 44
Ability to produce and supply in the short run 45
Indirect demand implications 53
Liquidity and credit constraints 55
Conclusions and policy implications 57
References 59
Notes 61
4 Business dynamics and financial vulnerabilities 63
Introduction 64
Initial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on firm entry and bankruptcies 65
Business dynamics 73
Corporate financial vulnerability 80
Conclusions and policy implications 82
References 84
STRENGTHENING ECONOMIC RESILIENCE FOLLOWING THE COVID-19 CRISIS © OECD 2021
8  TABLE OF CONTENTS
Notes 87
5 Supporting productivity through digital technologies 89
Introduction 90
Adoption of telework 92
E-commerce and the pre-existing use of digital tools 99
Productivity during COVID-19 and beyond 103
Conclusions and policy implications 107
References 110
Notes 113
6 Industrial and international connectedness 115
Introduction 116
Global value chain exposure and centrality 117
Industry composition and the structure of demand 121
Air transport 123
Tourism 125
Conclusions and policy implications 128
References 130
Notes 132
7 Inclusiveness across gender and skill groups 133
Introduction 134
Gender differences in exposure to employment effects 135
Skills and education differences in exposure to employment effects 141
Conclusion and policy implications 144
References 146
Notes 148
Annex A. Industry dashboard 151
Essential industries 153
Non-essential, high telework potential 156
Non-essential, low telework potential 158
References 160
Notes 160
Annex B. Industry composition by country 161
Reference 166
Annex C. Industry classification 167
Annex D. Examples of government support measures 169
Pre-existing government schemes to support workers 170
Policies enacted to support firms 171
References 174
Notes 175

Tables
Table A A.1. Overview of indicators, by affected dimensions 151
STRENGTHENING ECONOMIC RESILIENCE FOLLOWING THE COVID-19 CRISIS © OECD 2021