ABSTRACT Title of Dissertation: STRATEGIC PRODUCT DESIGN FOR RETAIL CHANNEL ACCEPTANCE UNDER UNCERTAINTY AND COMPETITION Nathan Williams, Doctor of Philosophy, 2007 Dissertation directed by: Shapour Azarm, Professor Department of Mechanical Engineering A. J. Clark School of Engineering P. K. Kannan, Associate Professor Department of Marketing R. H. Smith School of Business Significant recent research has focused on the marriage of consumer preferences and engineering design in order to improve profitability. However, in many markets, the profitability of new products for manufacturers is also a significant function of the retail channel structure through which the new products reach the ultimate customer. At the crux of the issue is the fact that channel dominating retailers, like Home Depot, Toys R’ Us, Wal-Mart have significant power arising from their hundreds of billions of dollars of sales revenue and have the ability to unilaterally control a manufacturer’s access to the customers. A product design methodology is proposed that accounts for this new and important power asymmetry. Manufacturer’s product success as defined by profit is affected by pricing at the retail and wholesale levels which in turn is dependent on the channel structure, i.e., retailer monopoly or duopoly. These channel structures are explored in this dissertation under an econometric or game theoretic framework and the results are shown to have important implications for designers. Additional non- traditional considerations for engineering product design such as bundling and exclusive contracts which are typical for retail channels are also explored by integrating marketing models with a design optimization structure. Lastly, some design methods for mitigating uncertainty in the strategic landscape of retailer dominated channels are developed. The dissertation has three research thrusts. Research Thrust 1 is devoted to developing a product design optimization approach with retailer acceptance as a probabilistic constraint on candidate designs. Slotting allowances are considered in concert with engineering design as complimentary approaches to achieving access to consumer markets. The retailer’s decision framework and the design optimization approach of Thrust 1 are extended in Thrust 2 to include competitive pricing responses from both competing manufacturers and channel controlling retailers. In Thrust 2 the implications for product design when manufacturers face monopolistic and duopolistic retail channels is explored as well as the design implications of an exclusive manufacturer/retailer relationship. Finally, in Thrust 3 the prior thrusts are implemented for multiple product categories and product bundles in order to consider synergy and competition amongst multiple complementary designs. Under this final Thrust 3, an approach to mitigating the risk of uncertainty in competitor design attributes is also developed. STRATEGIC PRODUCT DESIGN FOR RETAIL CHANNEL ACCEPTANCE UNDER UNCERTAINTY AND COMPETITION by Nathan Williams Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Maryland, College Park in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2007 Advisory Committee: Professor Shapour Azarm, Co-Advisor/Chair Associate Professor P. K. Kannan, Co-Advisor (Dean’s representative) Professor Bilal Ayyub Associate Professor Linda Schmidt Associate Professor Peter Sandborn Copyright by Nathan Williams 2007 To My Dear Wife, Holly ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisors, Dr. Shapour Azarm and Dr. P.K. Kannan. Their tremendous energy, generosity and patience cannot be overstated. I am especially grateful for their selfless focus on preparing me for a productive career in academia. I can only hope to provide such wonderful guidance and inspiration to students as I embark on my career. I would also like to thank Dr. Bilal Ayyub, Dr. Linda Schmidt, and Dr. Peter Sandborn for serving on my dissertation committee. Their guidance and comments have been invaluable in developing a much more focused presentation of this work. Such effort requires significant sacrifice of time and energy on their part and I am extremely grateful. I would like to thank the U.S. National Science foundation for its partial support of this work through Grant CMMI0654042. Such support does not constitute an endorsement by the funding agency of the opinions expressed in the paper. Several of my colleagues and mentors should also be noted for their efforts and advice during the development of this dissertation and include: Dr. Genzi Li, Mr. Vikrant Aute, Dr. Pat Moran, Dr. Dennis Hasson, CDR Len Hamilton, Dr. Russ Smith and Dr. Joel Schubbe. In particular, I’d like to thank Mr. Mian Li whose selfless aid could always be relied upon. Our collaboration was the most productive and enjoyable part of the past few years which I hope we continue in future endeavors. I would like to thank my parents and family (Ben, Wendy, Cheryl, and Wayne) for their encouragement. Most importantly, I’m indebted to my wife, Holly, who has supported me through so many years of school. Her love and understanding has pushed me past the most difficult times with enough momentum to now finish. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT....................................................................................................................................................i LIST OF FIGURES.....................................................................................................................................vi LIST OF TABLES.....................................................................................................................................vii NOMENCLATURE..................................................................................................................................viii NOMENCLATURE..................................................................................................................................viii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................1 1.1 MOTIVATION AND OBJECTIVE...........................................................................................................2 1.2 RESEARCH THRUSTS..........................................................................................................................7 1.2.1 Research Thrust 1: Engineering Product Design Optimization for Retail channel Acceptance.................................................................................................................................9 1.2.2 Research Thrust 2: Design for equilibrium Pricing in Channel Markets.............................10 1.2.3 Research Thrust 3: Multi-Category Design of Bundled Products for Retail Channels Considering Demand Dependencies and Uncertainty in Competitive Response.....................11 1.3 ASSUMPTIONS..................................................................................................................................12 1.4 ORGANIZATION OF DISSERTATION...................................................................................................13 CHAPTER 2: DEFINITIONS AND TERMINOLOGY......................................................................15 2.1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................15 2.2 MARKETING AND ECONOMICS DEFINITIONS AND TERMINOLOGIES.................................................16 2.3 MULTI-OBJECTIVE GENETIC ALGORITHM (MOGA)........................................................................20 2.4 SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................23 CHAPTER 3: ENGINEERING PRODUCT DESIGN OPTIMIZATION FOR RETAIL CHANNEL ACCEPTANCE......................................................................................................................24 3.1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................25 3.2 BOTTUM-UP DESIGN FRAMEWORK..................................................................................................29 3.3 THE RETAILER’S PRODUCT ACCEPTANCE DECISION........................................................................34 3.3.1 Computing the Retailer Value Proposition............................................................................35 3.3.2 Retail Models with Slotting Allowances................................................................................36 3.3.3 Solution to the Full Retailer Model.......................................................................................38 3.3.4 Estimation of Product Demand.............................................................................................41 3.4 THE MANUFACTURER’S DECSION....................................................................................................43 3.4.1 Parametric Production Cost Model.......................................................................................46 3.4.2 The Combined Manufacture/Retailer Model.........................................................................48 3.5 CASE STUDY APPLICATION...............................................................................................................49 3.5.1 Marketing Model Example: Angle Grinder..........................................................................49 3.5.2 Cost Model Example: Angle Grinder...................................................................................51 3.5.3 Engineering Model Demonstration: Universal motor and Bevel Gears...............................53 3.6 CASE STUDY RESULTS......................................................................................................................59 3.6.1 Tradeoffs in Manufacturer’s Profit vs. Retailer’s Acceptance..............................................61 3.6.2 Slotting Allowance Sensitivity...............................................................................................63 3.7 DISCUSSION OF APPROACH AND CASE STUDY..................................................................................64 3.7.1 Implications of Customer Preferences and Assortments on Product Design........................64 3.7.2 Importance of Retailer Acceptance Criteria to Design.........................................................66 3.7.3 Slotting Allowances: Considerations for the Firm in Design Selection................................68 3.8 SUMMARY....................................................................................................................................70 CHAPTER 4: STRATEGIC ENGINEERING PRODUCT DESIGN FOR MONOPOLISTIC AND DUOPOLISTIC RETAIL CHANNELS....................................................................................................72 iv 4.1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................73 4.2 MARKET STRUCTURE AND PROPOSED FRAMEWORK..........................................................................78 4.3 FROM PRODUCT DESIGN TO MARKET SHARE..................................................................................80 4.4 APPROACH TO STRATEGIC INTERACTIONS........................................................................................85 4.4.1 Pricing Framework...............................................................................................................86 4.4.2 Strategic Cases......................................................................................................................91 4.5 CASE STUDY....................................................................................................................................94 4.5.1 Optimization Approach.........................................................................................................95 4.6 DISCUSSION OF APPROACH AND CASE STUDY..................................................................................96 4.6.1 Interpretation of Manufacturer vs. Retail Profits..................................................................96 4.6.2 Comparison of Strategic Environments: Cases 1-3..............................................................98 4.6.3 Analysis of Exclusive Strategy.............................................................................................102 4.6.4 Optimal Engineering Designs.............................................................................................104 4.7 SUMMARY......................................................................................................................................107 CHAPTER 5: MULTI-CATEGORY DESIGN OF BUNDLED PRODUCTS FOR RETAIL CHANNELS CONSIDERING DEMAND DEPENDENCIES AND UNCERTAINTY IN COMPETITIVE RESPONSE..................................................................................................................110 5.1 INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................................111 5.2 APPROACH TO MULTI-CATEGORY DESIGN WITH BUNDLES...........................................................115 5.2.1 Layer 1: Discrete Choice Marketing Model.......................................................................117 5.2.2 Layer 2: Retail Pricing Model............................................................................................120 5.2.3 Layer 3: Manufacturing Engineering and Pricing Model..................................................123 5.2.4 Multidisciplinary uncertainty..............................................................................................129 5.3 CASE STUDY: CORDLESS ANGLE GRINDER AND RIGHT ANGLE DRILL...........................................132 5.3.1 Nested Logit Demand Model...............................................................................................132 5.3.2 Engineering Performance Model........................................................................................136 5.3.3 Case Study Sources of Uncertainty......................................................................................141 5.4 OPTIMIZATION APPROACH.............................................................................................................143 5.5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION............................................................................................................144 5.6 SUMMARY......................................................................................................................................147 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS...........................................................................................................149 6.1 CONCLUDING REMARKS................................................................................................................150 6.1.1 Engineering Product Design Optimization for Retail Channel Acceptance........................150 6.1.2 Strategic Engineering Product Design for Monopolistic and Duopolistic Retail Channels152 6.1.3 Multi-Category Design of Bundled Products for Retail Channels Considering Demand Dependencies and Uncertainty in Competitive Response......................................................154 6.2 MAIN CONTRIBUTIONS..................................................................................................................156 6.3 FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTIONS...................................................................................................160 6.3.1 Improvements in the Retailer Acceptance Criterion............................................................160 6.3.2 Improvements in Strategic Interactions...............................................................................161 6.3.3 Product Line Formulation...................................................................................................162 APPENDIX................................................................................................................................................165 APPENDIX A............................................................................................................................................165 APPENDIX B - PROOFS.............................................................................................................................166 B.1 Preparatory Material.............................................................................................................166 B.2 THEOREM 1 – Retailers’ multiproduct Nash equilibrium.......................................................167 B.3 Theorem 2 – Manufacturer’s single product Nash equilibrium.............................................173 APPENDIX C: COMPUTATIONAL ISSUES..................................................................................................178 REFERENCES..........................................................................................................................................181 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1.1: Product Design for Dominant Retailers with Competition.....................7 Figure 1.2.1: Design Considerations for Retail Channels............................................9 Figure 1.4.1: Organization of Dissertation.................................................................14 Figure 2.3.1: Flowchart of MOGA in One Generation..............................................22 Figure 2.3.2: Solutions to Multi-Objective Problem..................................................23 Figure 3.2.1: The Bottom –Up Framework................................................................33 Figure 3.5.1: 4.5” Angle Grinder Commonly Used for Masonry and Metal Work...49 Figure 3.5.2: Engineering Components......................................................................53 Figure 3.6.1: Profit vs. Probability of Acceptance (%)..............................................62 Figure 3.6.2: Effect of Slotting Allowance................................................................64 Figure 4.2.1: Strategic Design Framework.................................................................79 Figure 4.3.1: Product Design to Market Share...........................................................82 Figure 4.4.1: Pricing Framework................................................................................87 Figure 4.5.1: Optimization Formulations...................................................................95 Figure 4.6.1: Strategic Environment Comparison......................................................98 Figure 4.6.2: Exclusive Channel Comparison..........................................................104 Figure 5.2.1: Multi Layered Design Framework......................................................116 Figure 5.2.2: Discrete Choice Design for Product Bundling....................................117 Figure 5.2.3: Retailer Pricing Layer.........................................................................120 Figure 5.2.4: Manufacturer's Bundle Design Framework........................................124 Figure 5.2.5: Nested Optimization...........................................................................128 Figure 5.2.6: MORO: Robust Optimization.............................................................131 Figure 5.2.7: Robust Optimization Topology...........................................................132 Figure 5.3.1: Design Variables.................................................................................137 Figure 5.5.1: Robust/Nominal Pareto Comparison..................................................145 Figure B1: Lemma 1.............................................................................................166 Figure C1: MNL Profit Function..........................................................................180 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1.1: Dominating Retailer Profits........................................................................3 Table 3.5.1: Utility Estimates for Four Segments.........................................................50 Table 3.5.2: Example Segment Share...........................................................................51 Table 3.5.3: Engineering Design Variables..................................................................54 Table 3.5.4: Universal Motor Design Computations....................................................55 Table 3.5.5: Bevel Gear Design Computations.............................................................56 Table 3.5.6: Grinder Constraints g(x)...........................................................................57 Table 3.5.7: Customer Level Product Attributes y........................................................58 Table 3.6.1: Example Market Share..............................................................................59 Table 3.6.2: Previous and New Product Development (NPD) Comparison.................60 Table 3.6.3: Pareto Frontier of Designs........................................................................63 Table 4.5.1: Example Assortment at a Retailer.............................................................94 Table 4.6.1: Designs for Monopoly Retailer.................................................................99 Table 4.6.2: Designs for Duopoly Identical Retailers.................................................101 Table 4.6.3: Designs for Duopoly Differentiated Retailers........................................102 Table 4.6.4: Designs for Exclusive Case (Identical Duopoly)....................................103 Table 4.6.5: Pareto Designs........................................................................................106 Table 5.3.1: Grinder and Drill Category Utilities.......................................................133 Table 5.3.2: Bundle Category Utilities.......................................................................135 Table 5.3.3: Cordless Tool Mass Computations.........................................................138 Table 5.3.4: Common Constraints..............................................................................139 Table 5.3.5: Grinder and Drill Performance Constraints............................................140 Table 5.5.1: Sample of Optimal Designs....................................................................146 vii
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