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Strategic Intelligence, Volumes 1–5 Edited by Loch K. Johnson PRAEGER SECURITY INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIC (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) INTELLIGENCE (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) PRAEGER SECURITY INTERNATIONAL ADVISORYBOARD Board Cochairs LochK.Johnson,RegentsProfessorofPublicandInternationalAffairs,School ofPublicand International Affairs,University ofGeorgia(U.S.A.) Paul Wilkinson, Professor of International Relations and Chairman of the Ad- visory Board, Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, Uni- versity of St.Andrews(U.K.) Members Eliot A. Cohen, Robert E. Osgood Professor of Strategic Studies and Director, Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, TheJohns Hopkins University(U.S.A.) AnthonyH.Cordesman,ArleighA.BurkeChairinStrategy,CenterforStrategic and International Studies(U.S.A.) The´re`seDelpech,DirectorofStrategicAffairs,AtomicEnergyCommission,and Senior Research Fellow, CERI (Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politique), Paris (France) SirMichaelHoward,formerProfessorofHistoryofWar,OxfordUniversity,and Professor ofMilitary and Naval History,Yale University(U.K.) Lieutenant General Claudia J. Kennedy, USA (Ret.), former Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Headquarters,Department ofthe Army (U.S.A.) Paul M. Kennedy, J. Richardson Dilworth Professor of History and Director, International Security Studies,Yale University(U.S.A.) Robert J. O’Neill, former Chichele Professor of the History of War, All Souls College, Oxford University(Australia) ShibleyTelhami,AnwarSadatChairforPeaceandDevelopment,Departmentof Government andPolitics, University ofMaryland (U.S.A.) JusufWanandi,co-founderandmember,BoardofTrustees,CentreforStrategic and International Studies(Indonesia) Fareed Zakaria, Editor, Newsweek International (U.S.A.) STRATEGIC (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) INTELLIGENCE (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) 1 (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) UNDERSTANDING THE HIDDEN SIDE (cid:1) (cid:1) OF GOVERNMENT (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) Edited by (cid:1) (cid:1) Loch K. Johnson (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) Intelligence and the Quest for Security (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) PRAEGER SECURITY INTERNATIONAL (cid:1) Westport, Connecticut(cid:1)London (cid:1) LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Strategicintelligence/editedbyLochK.Johnson. p.cm.—(Intelligenceandthequestforsecurity,ISSN1932-3492) Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. ISBN0-275-98942-9(set:alk.paper)—ISBN0-275-98943-7(vol.1:alk.paper)— ISBN0-275-98944-5(vol.2:alk.paper)—ISBN0-275-98945-3(vol.3:alk.paper)— ISBN0-275-98946-1(vol.4:alk.paper)—ISBN0-275-98947-X(vol.5:alk.paper) 1. Militaryintelligence. 2. Intelligenceservice—Governmentpolicy. I. Johnson, LochK.,1942– UB250.S63852007 327.12—dc22 2006031165 BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationDataisavailable. Copyright#2007byLochK.Johnson Allrightsreserved.Noportionofthisbookmaybe reproduced,byanyprocessortechnique,withoutthe expresswrittenconsentofthepublisher. LibraryofCongressCatalogCardNumber:2006031165 ISBN:0-275-98942-9(set) 0-275-98943-7(vol.1) 0-275-98944-5(vol.2) 0-275-98945-3(vol.3) 0-275-98946-1(vol.4) 0-275-98947-X(vol.5) ISSN:1932-3492 Firstpublishedin2007 PraegerSecurityInternational,88PostRoadWest,Westport,CT06881 AnimprintofGreenwoodPublishingGroup,Inc. www.praeger.com PrintedintheUntiedStatesofAmerica Thepaperusedinthisbookcomplieswiththe PermanentPaperStandardissuedbytheNational InformationStandardsOrganization(Z39.48-1984). 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) CONTENTS (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) Preface vii 1. An Introduction to the Intelligence Studies Literature 1 Loch K. Johnson 2. Cloaks, Daggers, and Ivory Towers: Why Academics Don’t Study U.S. Intelligence 21 Amy B. Zegart 3. Studying Intelligence: A British Perspective 35 Timothy Gibbs 4. Democratic Deficit Be Damned: The Executive Use of Legislators to Scrutinize National Security in Canada 65 Stuart Farson and Reg Whitaker 5. Sources and Methods in the Study of Intelligence: A British View 89 Len Scott 6. Searching Where the Light Shines? An American View of Methods for the Study of Intelligence 109 Michael Warner 7. The Challenges of Intelligence Analysis 123 John Hollister Hedley 8. The Intelligence-Policy Nexus 139 James J. Wirtz vi contents 9. Sorting the Wood from the Trees: Were 9/11 and Iraq ‘‘Intelligence Failures’’? 151 Peter Gill 10. Intelligence of the Past; Intelligence for the Future 169 Harold M. Greenberg 11. National Intelligence in the Age of Transparency 181 Kristin M. Lord Appendixes A. Intelligence Excerpts from the National Security Act of 1947 201 B. A Brief History of U.S. Intelligence 213 C. The U.S. Intelligence Community, 1985 237 The U.S. Intelligence Community, 2006 238 The Organization of the Central Intelligence Agency, with Details on the Directorate for Intelligence—Home of the CIA’s Analysts 239 D. An Aerial Photograph of the Central Intelligence Agency, 1996 240 E. Leadership of the U.S. Intelligence Community, 1947–2006 241 F. Sherman Kent on ‘‘The Need for an Intelligence Literature’’ 244 G. The Aspin-Brown Commission on the Purpose and Challenges of Intelligence 250 H. A Tale of Counterintelligence 279 Glossary 295 Index 301 About the Editor and Contributors 313 (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) PREFACE (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) (cid:1) THISFIVE-VOLUMESERIESININTELLIGENCEISSOMETHINGofalandmarkinthestudy ofintelligence.Thirtyyearsago,onewouldhavebeenhard-pressedtofindenough good articles on the subject to fill two volumes, let alone five. In those three decades since 1975, however,thestudyofintelligencehasgrownconsiderably. Today there are several solid professional journals in the field, including the premierpublicationsIntelligenceandNationalSecurity(publishedintheUnited Kingdom), International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence (the UnitedStates),andStudiesinIntelligence(fromtheCentralIntelligenceAgency, in both classified and unclassified form). In just the past two years, bulging anthologiesonthegeneraltopic‘‘strategicintelligence,’’aswellasa‘‘handbook’’ onintelligenceandacollectionofchapterswithinthemorespecializednicheof ‘‘intelligence and ethics’’ have appeared, along with a tidal wave of books and articles on one aspect or another of this subject (see the bibliographic essay in volume1). Exceptintimesofscandal(Watergatein1973,CIAdomesticspyingin1974, theIran-contraaffairin1987),onecouldfindinthisearliereralittlenewspaper coverage of intelligence activities, so tightly held were these operations by the government. Now, fueled by the events of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and the erroneous prediction in 2002 that weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) were being developed and stockpiled by Iraq, hardly a week goes by without reports on intelligence in the New York Times and other leading news- papers. These days, the Atlantic Monthly and the New Yorker, America’s top literarymagazines,visitthesubjectwithsomeregularity,too.Thelatterhashired SeymourM.Hersh,thenation’smostwell-knowninvestigativereporterwithan intelligence beat. viii preface Intelligence studies hascomeof age. Certainly the chapters in these volumes display a breadth of inquiry that suggests an admirable vibrancy in this relatively new field of study. Presented hereareempiricalinquiries,historicaltreatments,theoreticalframeworks,mem- oirs, case studies, interviews, legal analyses, comparative essays, and ethical assessments. The authors come from the ranks of academe (twenty-five); the intelligence agencies (thirteen); think tanks (seven); Congress, the State De- partment,andtheNationalSecurityCouncil(three);andthelegalworld(three).1 Over a quarter of the contributors are from other nations, including Canada, England, Germany, Israel, Scotland, Switzerland, and Wales. The American writerscomefromeveryregionoftheUnitedStates.Asacollective,theauthors represent a wide range of scholarly disciplines, including computer science, history,internationalaffairs,law,sociology,politicalscience,publicadministra- tion,publicpolicystudies,andstrategicstudies.Manyofthecontributorsarefrom theranksofthetopintelligencescholarsintheworld;afewyoungonesstandat the gatewayto their academiccareers. Notable,too,isthenumberofwomenwhohave enteredthisfieldofstudy. Thirty years ago, it would have been rare to find one or two women writing on this subject. Seven have contributed chapters to these pages, and another two wrotedocumentsthatappearintheappendixes.Thisisstillfewerthanonewould like, especially in light of the major contribution women have made as intelligence officers. One thinks of the heroic efforts of British women in code breakingandintheSpecialOperationsExecutiveduringWorldWarII,andthe AmericanwomenwhocontributedsomuchtotheanalyticeffortsoftheOfficeof Strategic Studies (OSS) during that same war. At least, though, the number attractedto the scholar study ofintelligence appearstobe rapidly expanding. Theendresultofthismixisalandscapeilluminatedbyavarietyofmethods and appreciations—a rich research trove that examines all the key aspects of intelligence. In addition, each of the volumes contains backup materials in the appendixes. These documents provide the reader with access to significant pri- mary andsecondary sourcesreferred to inthe chapters. The volumes are organized according to the major topics of studies in the field. The first volume, titled Understanding the Hidden Side of Government, introducesthe reader tomethods commonlyused inthe studyofintelligence.It imparts, as well, a sense of the ‘‘state of the discipline,’’ beginning with a bibliographic essay (by the editor) and continuing with an examination of specific approaches scholars have adopted in their inquiries into this especially difficult discipline,wheredoors are oftenshut against outsiders. Inthebibliographicessaythatopensthevolume,Iarguethattheliteratureon intelligencehasmushroomedoverthepastthirtyyears.Someofthisliteratureis unreliable,butmuchofitisofhighquality.AmyB.Zegartfollowsmychapter withanimportantcaveat:theliteraturemaybemorevoluminousthesedays,but intelligencestudiesasanacademicfieldhasyettobeacceptedasavitalpartof national security scholarship. The mainstream journals of history, international preface ix affairs, and political science have still regarded the study of intelligence as a marginal pursuit. In this regard, Zegart points out, there is a major disconnect between academic scholarship and those who make decisions in Washington, London, andothercapitalsaroundthe world. Followingthis introduction, LenScott and Timothy Gibbs look at methods that have been used to study intelligence in the United Kingdom; Stuart Farson and Reg Whitaker in Canada; and Michael Warner in the United States. The volume then turns to a more specific inquiry into the central question of how intelligence is interpreted by professionals—the issue of analysis—explored by John Hollister Hedley. An overview of the sometimes turbulent relationship between intelligence officers and the policy makers they serve is explored by JamesJ.Wirtz;andBritishscholarPeterGillrecallsthefailuresassociatedwith the 9/11 attacks and the poor judgments about Iraqi WMDs, in hopes of ex- tractinglessonsfromtheseintelligencedisasters.Inthenextchapter,theyoungest scholarrepresentedinthiscollection,HaroldM.Greenberg,takesusbackintime with a remembrance of the legendary CIA officer and Yale history professor ShermanKent,oftenknownasthedeanofCIAanalysts.KristinLordroundsout thefirstvolumewithalookforwardintofutureprospectsforamoretransparent world—the ultimate goal ofintelligence. As with each of the books, Volume 1 has a set of appendixes designed to supplement the original chapters with supportive materials from government documentsandothersources.AppendixAcontainstherelevantintelligenceex- cerpts from the National Security Act of 1947—the founding charter for the modern American intelligence establishment. Appendix B provides a history of U.S. intelligence since 1947, prepared for the Aspin-Brown Commission in 1995–96bystaffmemberPhyllisProvostMcNeil.Thesetwodocumentspresent acontextualbackdropfortheVolume1chapters.AppendixCprovides‘‘wiring diagrams’’ of the intelligence community, that is, organizational blueprints for thesixteenagenciesandrelatedentities.Onechartdisplaysthecommunityasitis today, and another displays how it looked in 1985. As the contrast between the twoillustrates,theeventsofSeptember11,2001,haveledtoalargerandmore complex intelligence apparatus in the United States. Appendix D shows a photograph of the CIA Headquarters Building, as an example of what one of the secretagenciesactuallylookslikefromanaerialperspective.Thewhitedomein theforegroundisanassemblyhallseatingaround600peopleandtoitsleftisthe main entrance to the original CIA headquarters, built during the Eisenhower years.Behindthisolderwingisthenewgreen-glassstructureerectedduringthe Reagan administration, often known as the Casey addition because William J. CaseywastheDirectorofCentralIntelligence(DCI)atthetimeofitsconstruc- tionduringthe 1980s. Appendix E lists the top leadership in the America’s intelligence community: the DCIs from 1947–2005 and today’s DNI. Included here as well are the leadersinCongresswhohavebeenresponsibleforintelligenceaccountabilityin the past, along with the current members of the two congressional Intelligence