Strategic Choices of China's New Energy Vehicle Industry

27 Pages·2017·2.31 MB·English

energies
Article
Strategic Choices of China’s New Energy Vehicle
Industry: An Analysis Based on ANP and SWOT
XiaojiaWang1,2,*,ChenggongLi1,JenniferShang3,ChanghuiYang1,BingliZhang4and
XinshengKe5
1 SchoolofManagement,HefeiUniversityofTechnology,Hefei23009,China;[email protected](C.L.);
[email protected](C.Y.)
2 KeyLaboratoryofProcessOptimizationandIntelligentDecision-Making(MinistryofEducation),
HefeiUniversityofTechnology,Hefei23009,China
3 TheJosephM.KatzGraduateSchoolofBusiness,UniversityofPittsburgh,Pittsburgh,PA15260,USA;
[email protected]
4 SchoolofTrafficandTransportationEngineering,HefeiUniversityofTechnology,Hefei23009,China;
[email protected]
5 SchoolofEconomicsandManagement,BeijingJiaotongUniversity,Beijing100044,China;[email protected]
* Correspondence:[email protected]
AcademicEditor:K.T.Chau
Received:15January2017;Accepted:10April2017;Published:16April2017
Abstract: This goal of this paper is to provide a framework by which China should accelerate
thedevelopmentandproductionofnewenergyvehicles,whichshouldeffectivelyaddresscurrent
energyandenvironmentalpressures,whilepromotingthesustainabledevelopmentoftheautomotive
industry,whichisanurgenttask. Inaddition,thispaperprovidesguidelinesthatseektotransform
China’s auto industry while developing a new economic growth point to gain an international
competitive advantage with strategic initiatives. This study aims to provide an ANP-SWOT
(AnalyticNetworkProcessandStrength-Weakness-Opportunity-Threatanalysis)approachforan
interdependencyanalysisandtoprioritizethenewenergyautomobileindustryinChina. Firstly,
aSWOTmodelisusedtoanalyzetheinternalandexternalfactorssurroundingthedevelopmentof
thenewenergyautomobileindustryinChina. Secondly,fourtypesofdevelopmentstrategiesare
proposedbymeansoftheSWOTmatrixaccordingtotheconclusionsofthefactoranalysis. Finally,
theANPnetworkstructureisdesignedtomeasuretheeffectsofinfluentialsub-factors,andthen
to define a strategic plan for China’s new energy automobile industry. The results of this study
showthattheoptimalshort-termdevelopmentstrategyforChina’snewenergyautomotiveindustry
is to increase the construction of new energy vehicle-related facilities, while the best long-term
developmentstrategyistouselocaladvantagesandresources,throughcostcontrolmeasureswhich
increasecompetitionwithinthelocalnewenergyautomotiveindustry.
Keywords: newenergyvehicles;SWOTanalysis;ANP;strategicresearch
1. Introduction
Inrecentyears,issuesregardingtheenergycrisisandenvironmentalpollutionhavebecomea
matterofglobalconcern. Whileincreasinginscope,transportationenergyconsumptionisonecauseof
environmentalpollutionandoneofthemainsourcesofglobalgreenhousegasemissions. Inresponse
totheseissues,aswellasthesubstantialvariancebetweenfuelsupplyanddemand,theworld’smajor
carmanufacturersmustacceleratethedevelopmentanddistributionofnewenergyvehicles. TheIEA
Centerscenarioforecastshowsthatby2025,electriccarswillgrowto30million,in2040therewillbe
morethan150million,foradailyreductionof1.3millionbarrelsofcrudeoiltoreducedependenceon
Energies2017,10,537;doi:10.3390/en10040537 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies
Energies 2017, 10, 537 2 of 28
reduce dependence on oil [1]. As a national strategy, production of energy-saving and new energy
vehicElenser ghieass2 0b17e,c1o0,m53e7 the mainstream approach to advancement within the international aut2oomf2o7tive
industry [2].
Noielw[1 ]e.nAesrgayn avteiohnicallesst rraetefegry ,tpor tohdeu uctsioen oof fneenwer gpyo-wsaevri nsgysatnedmnse,w coemneprgleytevleyh oicrl emshaainslbye croelmye otnh enew
energmy-adinrisvtreena mveahpipcrleosa,c ihntcoluaddvinagn,c epmueren tewleicthtriinc tvheehinictleersn,a ftuioenl aclealul etolemcotrtiivc evienhdiucsletrsy a[n2]d. plug-in hybrid
(includingN eexwteenndeergdy rvaenhgicel)e selreecfetrritco vtheehiucsleeso f(PnHewEVposw) [e3r]s ywshteimchs ,ccoommbpilnetee ltyhoer cmomainbluysrteiloyno ennngeiwne of
conveennteirognya-dl rvievhenicvleesh iacnleds, tihnec leuldeicntgr,icp umreoteolerc otrfi celveechtircilce sv,efhuiecllceesl l[4el]e. ctricvehiclesandplug-inhybrid
(includingextendedrange)electricvehicles(PHEVs)[3]whichcombinethecombustionengineof
From the second half of 2013, the Chinese government began to vigorously promote the
conventionalvehiclesandtheelectricmotorofelectricvehicles[4].
development of new energy industries, expanding the market for new energy vehicles with a gradual
From the second half of 2013, the Chinese government began to vigorously promote the
increase in production and sales volume. According to the China Association of Automobile
development of new energy industries, expanding the market for new energy vehicles with a
Manufacturers, data shows that in 2011 China’s new energy vehicle production was 8368 units, an
gradualincreaseinproductionandsalesvolume. AccordingtotheChinaAssociationofAutomobile
increase of 16.5% from the prior year. In 2012, China’s new energy vehicle production exceeded
Manufacturers,datashowsthatin2011China’snewenergyvehicleproductionwas8368units,an
10,000in ucrneiatsse, wofit1h6 a.5 %50%fro imnctrheeasper itoor ay teoatra.lI onf 21021,25,5C2.h Iinn a2’s01n3e,w Cheninearg’sy nveewhi celneeprrgoyd uvcethioicnlee xpcreoedduedction
reach1e0d,0 1070,u5n00it su,wniittsh, aa5 309%.7i%nc rienacsreetaosae tcootamlopfa1r2e,d55 t2o. I2n021021.3 I,nC h2i0n1a4’s, nneewwe enneregrygyv evheichliecpler opdruocdtiuonction
grew raepacphreodx1im7,5a0t0eluyn 3it.s5, taim39e.7s% toin 7c8re,4a9se9 cuonmitpsa [r5ed]. tRoe2s0e1a2r.cIhn p20r1o4v,indeewd ebnye rtghyev Mehiincilestpryro odfu cIntiodnusgtrreyw and
Data ashpporwosx itmhaatte Clyh3i.n5at’ism teostatol p78r,o4d99ucutnioitns [o5f] .nReewse aerncehrgpyro vveidheidclbesy itnh e2M01i5n iisntrcyreoafsIendd uasltmryoasnt dfivDea ttaimes
to 379s,h0o0w0 sunthitast [C6h].i nIna’ s20to1t5a,l sparloeds uocft nioenwo efnneerwgye nveerhgyiclveesh iincl ethsein U2n0i1t5edin Sctraetaesse dreaalcmhoesdt fi12v,e30ti4m uensittos, an
379,000units[6]. In2015,salesofnewenergyvehiclesintheUnitedStatesreached12,304units,an
increase of approximately 400,000 units in total sales (Production and sales are shown in Figure 1).
increaseofapproximately400,000unitsintotalsales(ProductionandsalesareshowninFigure1).
Regardless of whether sales are measured within a single year or as an aggregate amount over a
Regardlessofwhethersalesaremeasuredwithinasingleyearorasanaggregateamountoveracertain
certain period, China ranks first in the world with respect to new energy vehicle production.
period,Chinaranksfirstintheworldwithrespecttonewenergyvehicleproduction.
45 42.7
40 37.9 40.2
35
33.11
30
25
20
15
10 7.85
7.48
5 0.84 1.25 1.75
0 0.82 1.28 1.76
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Production(ten thousand) 0.84 1.25 1.75 7.85 37.9 42.7
Sales(ten thousand) 0.82 1.28 1.76 7.48 33.11 40.2
Production(ten thousand) Sales(ten thousand)

Figure1.China’snewenergyvehicleproductionandsales.
Figure 1. China’s new energy vehicle production and sales.
Although China’s new energy automotive industry has made great progress in recent years,
Although China’s new energy automotive industry has made great progress in recent years, and
andtheGovernmenthasdevelopedvarioussupportingpolicies[7],suchnewmodels,policiesand
the Government has developed various supporting policies [7], such new models, policies and
regulationsarenotperfect,andmoreisrequiredforthemanagementofproductionandsales.Thereare
regulations are not perfect, and more is required for the management of production and sales. There
still a variety of issues which affect China’s new energy automotive industry, such as the use of
are stailnl taiq vuaarteiedtyte cohf niosslougeys, wobhsoiclhet eafafneccitl lCarhyineqau’si pnmewen te,ninedrgirye catuptoolmlutoiotinveo finndewusetnryer, gsyuvcheh aicsl etsh,el ouwse of
antiqusaafteetdy pteecrfhonrmolaongcye,, oetbcs.o[8le].te ancillary equipment, indirect pollution of new energy vehicles, low
safety performance, etc. [8].
New energy vehicles have become the international automotive industry development direction,
and the next 10 years will usher in the global automotive industry transformation and upgrading of
the important strategic opportunities. At present, China’s automobile production and sales scale has
been ranked first in the world, is expected in the next period of time will continue to grow, we must
seize the opportunity to accelerate the development of new energy vehicles industry, while
Energies2017,10,537 3of27
Newenergyvehicleshavebecometheinternationalautomotiveindustrydevelopmentdirection,
andthenext10yearswillusherintheglobalautomotiveindustrytransformationandupgradingof
theimportantstrategicopportunities. Atpresent,China’sautomobileproductionandsalesscalehas
beenrankedfirstintheworld,isexpectedinthenextperiodoftimewillcontinuetogrow,wemust
seizetheopportunitytoacceleratethedevelopmentofnewenergyvehiclesindustry,whileoptimizing
thestrategicchoiceofChina’snewenergyvehicleindustry[9]. Inthispaper,theANP-SWOTanalysis
isusedtostudythefactorsthatinfluencethedevelopmentofthenewenergyautomobileindustry
in China and to provide guidelines which facilitate national strategic planning for this industry.
Thispaperalsoseekstorecognizethesustainabledevelopmentofthenewenergyautomobileindustry
inChina. WefirstuseaSWOTanalysisoftheinternalandexternalfactorsthatinfluenceChina’snew
energyautomotiveindustry,whichincludestheadvantages,disadvantages,opportunitiesandthreats
ofindustrialdevelopment,whileexamining11sub-influencingfactors,andthecombinedeffectofeight
differentaspectsofdevelopmentstrategies(fourshort-termandfourlong-term). BecauseaSWOT
analysiscannotdirectlyprioritizeinfluencingfactorsanddevelopmentstrategies,weincorporatethe
ANPanalysistomeasurethedependenceonandrelationshipbetweeninternalandexternalfactors,
givingaweightedvaluetoeachinfluencingfactorbymeansofapairwisecomparison. Thisapproach
provideslong-termandshort-termstrategyusingascoringmethodtodeterminethemostfavorable
strategicplanforthedevelopmentofChina’snewenergyautomotiveindustry.
Thestructureofthispaperisasfollows: Section2discussesthebasicsoftheSWOTanalysisand
introducestheconceptsoftheAHPandANPmethods;inSection3,webuildaSWOT-ANPmodel
anddiscussthebestdevelopmentstrategyappliedtoChina’snewenergyautomotiveindustry;and
Section4discussesthemainconclusionsfromouranalysis.
2. OverviewofMethods
2.1. TheSWOTAnalysisMethod
As a systematic method, the SWOT analysis can help us to identify the internal and external
environment, theadvantagesanddisadvantagesoftheindustryandopportunitiesandthreats, to
provideabasisforthedevelopmentofanindustrialdevelopmentstrategy.TheSWOTanalysisconcept
isaccreditedtoUnitedStatesHarvardBusinessSchoolprofessorAndrewsin1971,andisbasedona
comprehensiveconsiderationofinternalandexternalenvironmentalfactorsinthecompetitivestrategy
approach[10]. ThemostimportantstepoftheSWOTanalysisistoidentifythestrengths,weaknesses,
opportunitiesandthreatsofaparticularindustry,listtheminamatrixbasedonacertainorder,and
thendeterminetheSO(strengths-opportunities),ST(strengths-threats),WO(weakness-opportunities),
WT(weakness-threats)strategicprogram[11]. Thisapproachcanhelpmanagerscombinestrengths
andopportunitieswhileminimizingtheimpactofvulnerabilitiesandthreatstodeterminetheoptimal
combinationstrategy[12].
2.2. AHPandANP
BecauseofthebroadapplicationofaSWOTanalysis,thismethodencountersseveralrestrictions,
including the inability to apply certain ranking criteria to strategies. Thus, one challenge of the
SWOTanalysisismeasuringhowtorankthedeterminedstrategiesandfactors. MultipleAttribute
DecisionMaking(MADM)methodsareusedasamajortoolforrankingalternativesincomplexand
multi-dimensionalproblems. Thesetechniquesconsidervariouscriteriaandalternativesdepending
onthetypeofproblemspresented[13].
The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a hierarchical weighted decision analysis method
proposedbySaaty,aprofessoroftheUniversityofPittsburghintheearly1970s. Itisthemostwidely
usedmultipleattributedecision-making(MADM)methodandcombinesqualitativeanalysiswith
quantitativeanalysis[14,15]. TheAHPproceduresaredefinedasfollows:
Energies2017,10,537 4of27
• Hierarchystructureisdefinedinsuchawaythatthegoalisplacedatthetopofhierarchy,andthe
criteriaandstrategiesattainingfromSWOTanalysisareplacedindescendingorder.
• Comparisonsbetweeneachfactorateachlevelaremadetodeterminewhichismoreimportant.
AccordingtotheprinciplesinTable1[14],1(equal)to9(absoluteimportance)scalesisusedto
derivethepairwisecomparisonmatrix
• Theglobalprioritiesofcriteria,sub-criteriaandalternativesaresynthesizedtoidentifyusingthe
eigenvaluemethod(EM).TheEMisthesolutionoftheeigenvalueproblem:
Aw = λ w (1)
max
whereλ isthelargestorprincipleeigenvalueofthepairwisecomparisonmatrixandwisthe
max
correspondingprincipleeigenvector. TheCR(ConsistencyRatio)ofmatrix Aisusedtocheck
judgmentinconsistencies. CR =CI/RI,whereCI = (λ −n)/(n−1)andλ isthemaximal
max max
eigenvalueof A. RI (RandomIndex)isanexperimentalvaluewhichdependsonn[14].
Table1.ThefundamentalscaleofAHP.
IntensityofImportance Definition
1 Equalimportance
3 Moderateimportance
5 Strongimportance
7 Verystrongimportance
9 Absoluteimportance
2,4,6,8 Usedtoexpressintermediatevalues
reciprocals Thescalebetweenxiandxjisrij=1/rji
AHP,asaneffectivedecision-makingtool,iscombinedwithotherMADMmethodstosolvemany
complexdecision-makingproblems. Insomestudies,AHPwascombinedwiththeSWOTanalysisto
optimizeandevaluateprogramstrategies[16–19].
AnalyticNetworkProcesses(ANP)isanewtoolusedtosolvemulti-criteriaproblems. Itisatype
ofsystemdecisionanalysiswhichcombinesqualitativeandquantitativefactorsbasedontheAnalytic
HierarchyProcess(AHP)[20,21].ThehierarchicalstructureoftheAnalyticHierarchyProcessisformed
usingatop-downlinearstructure,whereastheANPnetworkstructureisanonlinearstructurewith
factorsplacedinalldirections[22]. ANPnotonlysolvestheissuesthatcanbesolvedbyAHPbutalso
considerstheinteractionwithanddependencyoneachinfluencingfactorindecision-making[23].
Inrecentyears, ANPhasbeencombinedwithmanyotheroperationsresearchmethodstosolvea
varietyofproblems,suchas:
• Identificationofcoretechnologies[24];
• Theappraisalandapplicabilityofinvestmentsindifferentenergypowerplants[25];
• AnassessmentofthereductioninCarbonDioxidePartnerships[26];
• Solarthermalpowerplantinvestmentandprojectevaluation[27].
ThefirststepofANPisstructuringnetworkhierarchyandrecognizingfactors,sub-factorsand
alternativestrategies. Thisconsistsofatwo-dimensionalelement-by-elementmatrixwhichadjusts
therelativeimportanceweightsinindividualpairwisecomparisonmatricestobuildanewoverall
super-matrixwiththeeigenvectorsoftheadjustedrelativeimportanceweights.
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Inthispaper,theSWOTanalysisforthenewenergyautomotiveindustrydoesnotconsiderthe
interdependencebetweenfactorsanditsrelationshiptofeedback,soweusetheANPmethodtocreate
ahierarchicalstructureforanalysisandstrategicevaluation. ThebasicstepsforapplyingANPina
SWOTanalysisareasfollows[28]:
Step1: ConductaSWOTanalysistodeterminethecriteriaandsub-factors.
Step2: First,assumethatthereisnointeractionbetweenthefactors. Theimportancelevelofthe
SWOTcriteriashouldbemeasuredbypairedcomparisons((cid:118) ). Inthisstep,theAHPmethod
1
isapplied.
Step3: UndereachcriterionofSWOT,theconstructorsarecomparedinpairstoformamatrix((cid:118) ).
2
Step4: CalculatetheinterdependentSWOTfactorweights((cid:118) )bymultiplying(cid:118) by(cid:118) .
3 1 2
Step5: Ranktheimportanceofeachsub-factorintheSWOTanalysisbypairwisecomparisonsto
formamatrix((cid:118) ).
4
Step6: Determinethefinalweight((cid:118) )ofeachfactorofSWOTbymultiplying(cid:118) by(cid:118) .
5 3 4
Step7: Determinetherelativeimportanceofeachalternative((cid:118) )bypairwisecomparison.
6
Step8: Determinetheweightsforeachalternativebymultiplying(cid:118) by(cid:118) .
5 6
2.3. IntegratingANPandSWOTAnalysis
Kurttila et al. first developed the SWOT-AHP method and successfully used this hybrid
methodologytoassesswhetheraFinnishfarmshouldadoptcertifiedforestrypractices[29,30].Because
oftheexistinginterdependencyanddependencyamongallcomponentsoftheSWOTanalysis,itcan
beinferredthatthereisanecessitytoapplytheANPmethodfortherankingofstrategies,factorsand
sub-factors. AmongthemanyapplicationswhichcombineANPandSWOT,wereviewsomeofthe
predominantresearch.YükselandDagdevirenusedtheANPmethodfortheSWOTanalysisofatextile
firm[28]. TheSWOTanalysiswasusedtoidentifyfactorsandstrategies. CombiningtheANPmethod
tothisanalysisresultedintheidentificationof14factorsandfourtypesofstrategies[31,32]through
whichtheceramicmanufacturingindustrycouldchosethebestdevelopmentstrategy. Inanother
study[33],aSWOT-ANPmodelwasproposedforIran’sscrapindustry,andcomparedtheresultsof
AHPandANPwiththeindustrystrategyselection.
2.4. LiteratureonNewEnergyVehicles
Rather than focusing on industry strategy selection and optimization, most literature mainly
focuses on the technology and development of new energy vehicles. Khaligh et al., presented a
comprehensivetopologicalsurveyofthecurrentlyavailableplug-inhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs)
withchargingsolutions[34]. OsawaandNakanoproposedanewoptimizationmodelconsidering
theproduction-inducedeffectsaswellasenvironmentalimpacts[35]. Themodelisalsoappliedto
estimatetheimpactsontheportfolioofcleanenergyvehicles(CEVs)in2030inJapan.Liuetal.provide
anoverviewoftheChinesenewenergyvehicleindustryanddiscusstheroleofstateintheindustry’s
development[36]. Thus,asadevelopmentstrategyforthisindustryhasnotbeenfullyexplored,we
seektoanalyzethesefactorsinthispaper.
ThepurposeofthispaperistocombinetheSWOTanalysisandANPmethod,basedonvarious
factorsthataffectthedevelopmentofChina’snewenergyvehicleindustry,assessthedependenceand
feedbackrelationshipsbetweensuchfactorsandtorankandoptimizetheschemeofdevelopment
strategywithinthenewenergyvehicleindustry. Figure2presentstheproposedframework.
Energies2017,10,537 6of27
Energies 2017, 10, 537 6 of 28
Strategic Choice of China s New
Energy Auto Industry Development
SWOT Analysis ANP Analysis
▪Analysis of internal and external impact criteria ▪SWOT criteria weight determination
Internal: Strengths and Weaknesses Score according to expert team
External: Opportunities and Threats
▪The weight of each subfactor under the overall goal
▪Determination of subfactors Assuming there are no dependencies and effects
11 factors are identified through questionnaire between factors
Assuming there are dependencies and effects
▪Strategic alternatives between factors
The SO/WO/ST/WT strategy is determined A super matrix is generated
according to the SWOT matrix
The four strategic programs are divided into ▪The ranking of alternatives
long-term and short-term According to the ANP calculation process
ANP-SWOT Model
Development Strategy Ranking and
Optimization

Figure 2. Article Framework.
Figure2.ArticleFramework.
The procedure to solve strategy selection problem is following: (1) 15 experts in China, who have
3. ApplicationoftheProposedModel
extensive experiences in New Energy Vehicles, were invited to assist to identify 11 industry
influencing factors and eight alternatives according to SWOT, The team of experts from Chery
3.1. TheEvaluationCriteriaandAlternativesviaSWOT
Automobile (three people), JAC (five people), China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (five
Tomoreaccuratelyandscientificallyanalyzetheinternalenvironment(strengthsandweaknesses)
people), Hefei University of Technology Automotive Institute (two people), the identification is
andtheexternalenvironment(opportunitiesandthreats)ofChina’snewenergyautomotiveindustry,
based on two considerations: industry actual state and the existence; (2) 12 of these experts were
thispaperbuildsanANP-SWOTmodeltoassessthedevelopmentstrategyofChina’snewenergy
further invited to assist to measure the weight through scoring survey. We collected experts’
vehicleindustry,andproposesOptimizationoptions. Wedefertoexpertswithinautomotive-related
suggestions and selected 11 influencing factors, which were what we discussed above, as criteria to
areassuchastheChinaAssociationofAutomobileManufacturersandthe2016“NewEnergyVehicles,
evaluate leading industrial strategy selections; (3) consider the relationship between factors; (4) we
PowerBatteriesandKeyMaterialsTechnologySummit”inthisassessment.
used the ANP to calculate each alternative’s global weight and ultimately obtain the overall ranking
Theproceduretosolvestrategyselectionproblemisfollowing: (1)15expertsinChina,whohave
of the strategies. Specific steps are as follows:
extensiveexperiencesinNewEnergyVehicles,wereinvitedtoassisttoidentify11industryinfluencing
Step 1: Screening of influencing factors. Using a questionnaire survey (questions of the
factors and eight alternatives according to SWOT, The team of experts from Chery Automobile
questionnaire shown in Appendix A), the expert team is evaluated and screened for the external
(three people), JAC (five people), China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (five people),
(superiority, inferiority) and internal (opportunity, threat) impact factors relating to China’s new
HefeiUniversityofTechnologyAutomotiveInstitute(twopeople),theidentificationisbasedontwo
energy automobile industry.
considerations: industryactualstateandtheexistence;(2)12oftheseexpertswerefurtherinvitedto
Step 2: Determination of strategic alternatives. A panel discussion which used a scoring method
assisttomeasuretheweightthroughscoringsurvey. Wecollectedexperts’suggestionsandselected11
further defined 11 sub-influencing factors within China’s new energy automotive industry, as shown
in Figure 3.
Energies2017,10,537 7of27
influencingfactors,whichwerewhatwediscussedabove,ascriteriatoevaluateleadingindustrial
strategyselections;(3)considertherelationshipbetweenfactors;(4)weusedtheANPtocalculateeach
alternative’sglobalweightandultimatelyobtaintheoverallrankingofthestrategies. Specificsteps
areasfollows:
Step 1: Screening of influencing factors. Using a questionnaire survey (questions of the
questionnaire shown in Appendix A), the expert team is evaluated and screened for the external
(superiority, inferiority) and internal (opportunity, threat) impact factors relating to China’s new
energyautomobileindustry.
Step2: Determinationofstrategicalternatives. Apaneldiscussionwhichusedascoringmethod
furtherdefined11sub-influencingfactorswithinChina’snewenergyautomotiveindustry,asshown
inFigure3.
Energies 2017, 10, 537 7 of 28
Weakness
Strength
Lack of core technology
Resources and energy
Inadequate infrastructure
advantages
Resource integration
Industrial advantages
disadvantages
SWOT Analysis
Threat
Opportunity
Traditional automobile
Demand opportunities
industry
National and government
Multinational auto giants
policy support
High manufacturing costs
Market opportunities

Figure 3. China’s new energy automotive industry SWOT analysis.
Figure3.China’snewenergyautomotiveindustrySWOTanalysis.
Simultaneously, four short-term and four long-term development strategies are presented using
Simultaneously,fourshort-termandfourlong-termdevelopmentstrategiesarepresentedusinga
a combination of SO, ST, WO and WT.
combinationofSO,ST,WOandWT.
Step 3: Design the network hierarchy. Identification of the ideal strategy for development of China’s
Step3: Designthenetworkhierarchy. IdentificationoftheidealstrategyfordevelopmentofChina’s
new energy automobile industry is the overall objective of the model ANP evaluation and four SWOT
newenergyautomobileindustryistheoverallobjectiveofthemodelANPevaluationandfourSWOT
factors, which include the internal and external factors as the basis for the standard layer, and the
factors,whichincludetheinternalandexternalfactorsasthebasisforthestandardlayer,andtheSWOT
SWOT matrix strategy options as the basis for the program layer. The framework for the development
matrixstrategyoptionsasthebasisfortheprogramlayer. Theframeworkforthedevelopmentof
of China’s new energy automotive industry is proposed as a hierarchical structure, as shown in
China’snewenergyautomotiveindustryisproposedasahierarchicalstructure,asshowninFigure4.
Figure 4.
Step4: Evaluatetheimportanceoftheinfluencingfactorset. Toachievethis,theexpertgroupuseda
scaleof1–9torankandprovideaweightedvalueoffourpairsofinfluentialfactors(thequestionnaire
Resources and energy advantages (S1)
singleformisdesignedforpairwisecomparison(SeeTable2)).
Short Alternatives
Strength
Taking into account the interplay between the criteria proposed by the panel and the
dependencies(seeFigure5),weidentifieIndduastrciaol ardrveanltaatgieos (nS2)betweeninfluencingfactorsinStOhseevaluation
ofstrategicalternatives.
WOs
Step5: Determinetherelationshipandimportanceofinfluencingfactors. Inthisstep,wefirstdrawthe
relationshipbetweeninternalandexternLaaclk fofa ccotroe tresch,naolcogcyo (Wrd1)ingtocriteriadeterminedbythSTesexpertteam,
asshowninFigure6W. eak Inadequate infrastructure (W2) WTs
Next,theexpertteamevaluatestherelativeimportanceofinfluencingfactors,takingintoaccount
thedependenceandfeedbackrelatioRensosuhrciep instebgreattiown deiesandvatnhtaegefsa (Wct3o)rs,aswellastheabsenceofdependency
andfeedbackrelationships.
GOAL
Demand opportunities (O1)
Long Alternatives
Opportunity National and government policy support (O2)
Market opportunities (O3) SOl
WOl
Traditional automobile industry (T1) STl
Threat Multinational auto giants (T2) WTl
High manufacturing costs (T3)
Figure 4. China’s choice strategy for the development of the new energy automotive industry using
a network hierarchy.
Energies 2017, 10, 537 7 of 28
Weakness
Strength
Lack of core technology
Resources and energy
Inadequate infrastructure
advantages
Resource integration
Industrial advantages
disadvantages
SWOT Analysis
Threat
Opportunity
Traditional automobile
Demand opportunities
industry
National and government
Multinational auto giants
policy support
High manufacturing costs
Market opportunities

Figure 3. China’s new energy automotive industry SWOT analysis.
Simultaneously, four short-term and four long-term development strategies are presented using
a combination of SO, ST, WO and WT.
Step 3: Design the network hierarchy. Identification of the ideal strategy for development of China’s
new energy automobile industry is the overall objective of the model ANP evaluation and four SWOT
factors, which include the internal and external factors as the basis for the standard layer, and the
SWOT matrix strategy options as the basis for the program layer. The framework for the development
Energieosf2 0C1h7,in10a,’s5 3n7ew energy automotive industry is proposed as a hierarchical structure, as shown in8 of27
Figure 4.
Resources and energy advantages (S1)
Short Alternatives
Strength
Industrial advantages (S2) SOs
WOs
Lack of core technology (W1) STs
Weak Inadequate infrastructure (W2) WTs
Resource integration disadvantages (W3)
GOAL
Demand opportunities (O1)
Energies 2017, 10, O53p7p ortunity National and government policy support (O2) Long Alterna8t iovfe 2s8
Step 4: Evaluate the importance of thMea irnkeflt uopepnocritnungit ifeasc (Oto3r) set. To achieve this, the expert groSuOpl used a
scale of 1–9 to rank and provide a weighted value of four pairs of influential factors (the questionnaire
single form is designed for pairwise comparison (See Table 2)). WOl
Traditional automobile industry (T1) STl
EnergiTesa 2b0l1e7 ,2 1. 0A, 5n3 e7x ample of the pairwise comparison of factors under the SWOT category “Opportunities”.8 of 28
Threat Compare the MRuelltiantaitvioen aIlm auptoo gritaanntsc (eT 2o)f Each Opportunity WTl
Step 4: Evaluate the importance of the influencing factor set. To achieve this, the expert group used a
National and government policy
sscinaglel eoD ffeo 1mr–ma9n tdios ordpaenpsokigr atnunenddit pifeorsor ( vpOiad1i)er wa iwsee icHg9oihg m8ht em7pd a6an vru5ifa sa4lco ut3une r2 i (no S1gf e c2foe os3 tuT s4 (ra T5 bp3 )6lae i7 r2 s8) )o9. f influential fascutpoprso r(tt h(eO q2)u estionnaire
FigurFeig4u.rCeD h4ei.mn Caahn’sdin coahp’sop ocichrteouinsctietri aesstt er(agOtye1)g fyo rfotrh te9h de8 e7dv e6e v5le o4l op3p m2m 1e e2nn t3t o4o f5f t6thh 7ee 8 nn 9ee ww eenneerMrggyay rakaueutt ootmoppmootroitvtuienv iietniedisnu (dsOtur3ys) t urysinugs inga
a neNtwTatoaiborklne a h2l i.a eAnrdan r gecxohavyme.r pnlme oefn tth peo pliaciyrw ise comparison of factors under the SWOT category “Opportunities”.
networkhierarchsyu.pport (O2) Compare the R9 e8l a7t i6v 5e 4Im 3 p2o 1r t2a 3n c4e 5 o 6f 7E a8c 9h OpportMunairtkyet opportunities (O3)
National and government policy
T able2.ATnDaeekmxinaangmd p ionlpetpooo rfatucthcnoeituipensat ( iOrtwh1)ei seincteormp9 lp8a ya7 r6ib s5eo 4tnw 3 oe2e f1nf 2 a c3th t4oe 5 r sc6r u7it n8e dr9i ear pthroepSoWseOd Tsbuycpa pttoehrget o(rpOya2n)“ eOl papnodr ttuhnei ties”.
dependencies (see Figure 5), we identified a correlation between influencing factors in the evaluation
of straDteemgiacn adl toeprpnoarttiuvneCisto.i ems (pOa1r)e theRe9l 8a t7i v6 e5 I4m 3 p2o 1r 2ta 3n 4c e5 o6 f7 E8 a9c hOppoMraturkneitt oypportunities (O3)
National and government policy
Demandsouppppoorrtt u(Oni2t)i es(O1) 99 88 77 66 55 44 33 22 11 2 23 34 45 65 76 87 98 9 MNaartkpieootnl oiacplypaosnurdtpupngiootivretes( r(OnOm23))e nt
Demandopportunities(O1) 98765432123456789 Marketopportunities(O3)
Taking into account the interplay between the criteria proposed by the panel and the
Nationalandgovernment
odfe psternadtepegonilcci icaeylst se(surenpeap tFoiivrgetus(r.O e2 5)), we ident9if8ie7d 6a 5co4r3re2la1ti2on3 b4e5tw6e7e8n 9influenMcianrgk efatcotoprpso irnt uthneit eievsa(lOua3t)ion

Figure 5. SWOT criterion internal influence relation.
Step 5: Determine the relationship and importance of influencing factors. In this step, we first draw
the relationship between internal and external factors, according to criteria determined by the expert
team, as shown in Figure 6.
Next, the expert team evaluates the relative importance o f influencing factors, taking into
account the dependence aFnidg ufreee d5.b SaWckO Tre clraittieorniosnh iinptse rbneatlw inefelune nthcee rfealacttioorns., as well as the absence of
Figure5.SWOTcriterioninternalinfluencerelation.
dependency and feedback relationships.
Step 5: Determine the relationship and importance of influencing factors. In this step, we first draw
the relationship between internal and external factors, according to criteria determined by the expert
team, as shown in Figure 6. S1 S2 W1 W2 W3
Next, the expert team evaluates the relative importance of influencing factors, taking into
account the dependence and feedback relationships between the factors, as well as the absence of
dependency and feedback relationships.
O1 O2 O3 T1 T2 T3
S1 S2 W1 W2 W3
A B A has influence on B
Figure 6. The Relationship between Internal and External Factor.
Figure6.TheRelationshipbetweenInternalandExternalFactor.
O1 O2 O3 T1 T2 T3

A B A has influence on B
Figure 6. The Relationship between Internal and External Factor.
Energies2017,10,537 9of27
3.2. TheSWOTAnalysisandStrategyFormulationfortheDevelopmentofChina'sNewEnergy
AutomobileIndustry
3.2.1. Strength
ResourcesandEnergyAdvantages: Intermsofnaturalresourcesadvantages,Chinahasanatural
advantage,vastterritory,richinresources. Thekeycomponentsofnewenergyvehicles—batteriesand
motorsandotherrawmaterialsrequiredinChinaareextremelyrich. Manganese,iron,vanadium,
phosphorus, rare earth permanent magnet materials in China are rich resources. In addition, in
thedevelopmentofalternativefuelvehicles,alternativefuelsarerelativelyadequaterawmaterials,
suchascoalresourcesinnorthwestChina,naturalgasresourcesinSichuan,thecentralregionofthe
rich biomass resources. In terms of energy advantages, China’s electricity is sufficient, the power
installed capacity of 800 million kilowatts, for 4000–5000 million electric car charging. Electricity
sourcesareverydiverseandadequate,suchaswindpower,nuclearpowerandsolarenergyresource.
Theseconditionprovideadequateresourcesandenergyassuranceforthedevelopmentofnewenergy
vehiclesinChina.
IndustrialAdvantages: Inrecentyears,China’selectricbicycleandelectricmotorcycleindustries
haveexperiencedarapiddevelopment,whichledtoanadvancementofcorecomponentssuchas
batteries,drivemotorandotherrelatedtechnologies. Presently,large-scaleproductionandcostcontrol
measureshavebeenestablishedforthesepartsproductionsystems. Assuch,asolidfoundationhas
beencreatedfornewenergyvehicles,whichutilizesimilartechnologiesforpowerbatteries,drive
motorandothercommontechnologies.
3.2.2. Weakness
TheKeyTechnologyisWeak,andtheCoreTechnologyisInsufficient: Comparedwiththeworld’s
automobileindustry,Chinahasnothadanybreakthroughsuccesswithitscoretechnology,which
is still categorized at the “improved technology innovation” level. In addition, the independent
innovationcapabilityisweakintermsofbattery,motor,electroniccontrolandothercoretechnologies
whicharestillinneedofmoreresearchanddevelopment.
InadequateInfrastructure: Atpresent, China’sfacilitiesdedicatedtonewenergyvehiclesare
relativelysmallandcannotsupportthedemandfornewenergyautomotivedevelopment,whichisan
importantfactorthatimpactsthisindustry.
ResourceIntegrationDisadvantages: AlthoughChinahasenteredthenewenergyautomotive
industry, its fragmented enterprises lead to resource dispersion, in which China cannot form any
short-term technical breakthrough. Low-level repetitive R&D occupies many resources. Research
institutesandindustryassociationscannotparticipateinthesestudies. Chinastrugglestofindwaysto
integrateandoptimizetheallocationofresources.
3.2.3. Opportunity
DemandOpportunities: Risingoilprices,increasingmotorvehiclepollutionandotherserious
energyandemissionsproblemsfacilitatetheneedfornewenergyvehicledevelopment.
NationalandGovernmentalPolicySupport: Thestateisimplementingpolicieswhichsupport
thedevelopmentofthenewenergyautomotiveindustry. Localgovernmentshavealsointroduced
relativelocalincentivestoencouragelocalautomobilecompaniestoproducenewenergyvehicles.
MarketOpportunities: GivenChina’smarketdiversification,thedevelopmentpotentialfornew
energyvehiclesisenormous. China’seconomicdevelopmentvariesbyregion,withdifferentincome
levelsatvariouslocations. Thesefactorsgiverisetoadiversifiedanddifferentiateddemand,which
will determine different prices, features and other needs, to accommodate such diverse consumer
characteristics. Thepresenceofspecificconsumergroupswillinfluencethepromotionofandneedfor
newenergyautomotiveproducts.
Energies2017,10,537 10of27
3.2.4. Threat
TraditionalAutomobileIndustry: China’straditionalautomobileindustryiscurrentlyinarapid
growthperiod, inwhichtheindustryprofitmarginsarehigh. Assuch, thereislittleincentivefor
automobilecompaniestoproducenewenergyvehicles.
Multinational Auto Giants: Multinational automobile companies are in the mature phases of
newenergyvehicledevelopment,withmanyhavinglaunchedtheseproductstoachievehigh-volume
sales. Toyota,GM,Volkswagenandotherautogiantshavealreadyestablishedsalesofnewenergy
vehiclesinChina. OneexampleofasuccessfulnewenergyvehicleistheToyotaPriushybridwhich
hasachievedcumulativesalesofmorethan1.5millionworldwide. Incontrast, Chinahasnotyet
establishedanylarge-scalesalesofnewenergyvehicles.
HighManufacturingCosts:Factorssuchascarpre-researchfundingandsmall-volumeproduction
increasethecostofnewenergyvehicles. Therefore,thereisnopriceadvantagetotheproductionof
thesevehicles.
BasedontheaboveSWOTanalysisofChina’snewenergyautomotiveindustryandtheassessment
provided by the expert team, there are four proposed strategies, namely the SO, WO, ST and WT
strategies. Inconsideringthebestdevelopmentstrategyforthenewenergyautomotiveindustry,itis
importanttoconsiderthelong-termsustainabledevelopmentoftheindustryaswellastheshort-term
strategy. New energy vehicles in China are still in the early stages of development and must go
through a process that provides a realistic approach to each stage of the strategy, which is geared
towards a long-term sustainable development process. Production needs must be fulfilled using
short-termdevelopmentstrategiesthatplayacrucialroleintheabilityofthisindustrytoachieveand
guaranteelong-termsustainability. Throughoutthispaperthesefourtypesofstrategiesaredivided
intolong-termandshort-termstrategies. Specificstrategiesareasfollows:
Making use of the Chinese New Vehicle Industry’s strength and opportunity to develop its
short-termandlong-termstrategytoenhancetheChineseNewVehicleIndustry’sdevelopment:
• SO :Thenewenergyindustrymarketsegmentsandtheuseofindustrialadvantagesgivepriority
s
tothedevelopmentofanewmarketsegmentoftheenergyvehicles;
• SO: New energy vehicle policies support the use of resources, which actively develop
l
corecomponents.
Making use of the Chinese New Vehicle Industry’s opportunity and overcoming the
weakness to develop its short-term and long-term strategy to enhance the Chinese New Vehicle
Industry’sdevelopment:
• WO : Acceleratetheconstructionoffacilitiesdedicatedtotheproductionofnewenergyvehicles;
s
• WO: In accordance with national policy, integrate resources to focus on technology research
l
anddevelopment.
Making use of the Chinese New Vehicle Industry’s strength and defend against its
threat to develop its short-term and long-term strategy to enhance the Chinese New Vehicle
Industry’sdevelopment:
• ST : Makefulluseofresourcestoincreasescientificresearch;
s
• ST: Make use of local industry advantages, including cost control, etc., to enhance the
l
competitivenessofthelocalnewenergyautomotiveindustry.
ReducingtheChineseNewVehicleIndustry’sweakness,avoidthethreattodevelopitsshort-term
andlong-termstrategytoenhancetheChineseNewVehicleIndustry’sdevelopment:
• WT : Increasetheconstructionandinvestmentinfrastructure;
s
• WT: Formulateatechnologicalinnovationplatformtostrengthenresearchanddevelopment
l
efforts. Strive to advance the core components, comparable to international standards
oftechnology.