Strategic Appraisal

495 Pages·2002·2.58 MB·English

Strategic Appraisal
United States
Air Space Power
and
21 Century
st
in the
Edited by Zalmay Khalilzad, Jeremy Shapiro
Prepared for the United States Air Force
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
R
Project AIR FORCE
The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air
Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may
be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of
Plans, Hq USAF.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Strategic appraisal : United States air and space power in the 21st century / edited by
Zalmay Khalilzad, Jeremy Shapiro.
p. cm.
“MR-1314.”
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 0-8330-2954-1
1. United States. Air Force. 2. Air power—United States. 3. Astronautics,
Military—United States. 4. World politics—21st century. I. Khalilzad, Zalmay. II.
Shapiro, Jeremy.
UG633 .S7924 2002
358.4'00973—dc21
2002069823
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PREFACE
Aerospace power has become the archetypal expression of the U.S.
ability to project force in the modern world. Throughout the world,
U.S. aerospace power—and thus, the U.S. Air Force (USAF)—plays a
critical, and often primary, role in securing U.S. interests, in promot-
ing American values, and in protecting human rights. While the
USAF has had significant success in employing aerospace power in
the recent past, emerging trends in international relations, in tech-
nology, and in our own domestic society will create a wide variety of
new challenges and new opportunities for U.S. aerospace power.
Meeting these challenges and exploiting these opportunities will
require careful planning, wise investments, and thoughtful training,
as well as difficult cultural adaptations within the USAF. This book
identifies many of these challenges and opportunities in a wide vari-
ety of issue areas and assesses the degree to which the USAF is pre-
pared to meet them.
While the work was carried out under the auspices of the Strategy
and Doctrine program of RAND’s Project AIR FORCE, which is spon-
sored by the U.S. Air Force, this volume draws on the expertise of
researchers from across RAND in a variety of related disciplines. The
primary audience of this work consists of Air Force leaders and plan-
ners, but it should be of interest to others concerned about national
security issues.
The Strategic Appraisal series is intended to review, for a broad audi-
ence, issues bearing on national security and defense planning.
Strategic Appraisal: The Changing Role of Information in Warfare
analyzed the effects of new information technologies on military
iii
iv Strategic Appraisal: United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century
operations. Strategic Appraisal 1997: Strategy and Defense Planning
for the 21st Century dealt with the challenges the U.S. military faces
in meeting the changing demands made upon it in a changing world.
Strategic Appraisal 1996 assessed challenges to U.S. interests around
the world, focusing on key nations and regions.
The views expressed here are those of the authors. They do not nec-
essarily reflect those of RAND or its clients. The research described
here was conducted before the September 11, 2001, attacks on the
United States and the subsequent U.S. campaign against Al Qaeda
and other terrorist groups.
PROJECT AIR FORCE
Project AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the Air Force federally
funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and
analyses. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of
policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat
readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces.
Research is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force
Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource
Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.
CONTENTS
Preface ......................................... iii
Figures ......................................... xiii
Tables. ......................................... xvii
Acknowledgments. ................................ xix
Abbreviations .................................... xxi
Chapter One
INTRODUCTION: THE PRICE OF SUCCESS
Jeremy Shapiro ................................ 1
What Has Stayed the Same ....................... 2
What Has Changed ............................. 4
Smaller-Scale Contingencies .................... 4
The Threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction ......... 5
Emerging Challenges ........................... 6
Emerging Opportunities ......................... 8
Getting Past Success ............................ 11
PART I: THE GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT FOR
AEROSPACE POWER ............................ 13
Chapter Two
FORCES FOR WHAT? GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT AND
AIR FORCE CAPABILITIES
Zalmay Khalilzad, David Ochmanek, and Jeremy
Shapiro ...................................... 15
The Geopolitical Context ......................... 15
Evolution of the International System .............. 16
v
vi Strategic Appraisal: United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century
U.S. Goals .................................. 29
U.S. Requirements for Military Forces ............... 32
The Maturation of U.S. Aerospace Power: Capabilities
of Today’s Forces ........................... 35
Defeating Enemy Air Attacks .................... 35
Destroying Fixed Targets ....................... 35
Destroying Mechanized Ground Forces ............ 37
Information and Its Uses ....................... 38
Survivability ................................ 39
Implications for U.S. Joint Operations ............. 41
Challenges for the USAF ......................... 42
Modernization and Recapitalization ............... 43
Human Capital .............................. 44
Conclusion: Creating Options ..................... 46
References ................................... 46
Chapter Three
THE FUTURE OF U.S. COERCIVE AIRPOWER
Daniel L. Byman, Matthew C. Waxman, and Jeremy
Shapiro ...................................... 51
The American Way of Coercion .................... 54
A Preference for Multilateralism .................. 55
An Intolerance for Casualties .................... 55
Aversion to Civilian Suffering .................... 56
A Preference for and a Belief in Technological
Solutions ................................. 57
A Commitment to International Norms ............ 57
Summary. .................................. 58
Adversary Countercoercive Strategies: A Taxonomy ..... 58
Create Innocent Suffering ...................... 60
Shatter Alliances ............................. 63
Create Counteralliances ........................ 65
Create Actual or Prospective U.S. or Allied
Casualties ................................ 66
Play Up Nationalism at Home ................... 69
Threaten Use of WMD ......................... 71
The Future of U.S. Coercive Airpower ............... 74
References ................................... 77
Contents vii
PART II: WHERE DOES THE USAF NEED TO GO? ......... 83
Chapter Four
MODERNIZING THE COMBAT FORCES: NEAR-TERM
OPTIONS
Donald Stevens, John Gibson, and David Ochmanek ..... 85
Missions ..................................... 85
Conditions and Constraints ....................... 88
Roles of Air and Space Forces ..................... 91
Modernization—Key Considerations ................ 94
An Aging Fleet ............................... 94
Analytical Approach .......................... 96
Force Mix Alternatives ........................... 96
Approach .................................... 99
Force Mix Recommendations ..................... 105
Fighter-Bomber Mix .......................... 105
Trades Among Fighters ........................ 113
Summary Force Mix Alternatives ................. 117
Cost Sensitivities ............................... 119
Impact of Cost Growth in F-22X and F-22E
Programs. ................................ 120
Impact of Cost Growth in JSF Program ............. 120
SSCs and Ongoing Deployments ................... 123
Force Requirements to Support Deployed Aircraft .... 129
No-Fly and Exclusion Zones ..................... 131
Force Structure Requirements for Ongoing
Deployments and SSCs ...................... 135
Force Structure Implications of SSCs .............. 139
Summary .................................... 139
References ................................... 141
Chapter Five
SPACE CHALLENGES
Bob Preston and John Baker ....................... 143
Current Space Activities ......................... 143
The Civil Space Sector ......................... 144
The Commercial Space Sector ................... 147
The National Security Space Sector ............... 154
World Players ............................... 160
Motivations for Change .......................... 162
viii Strategic Appraisal: United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century
Bureaucratic and Technological Forcing Functions .... 162
Threat-Driven Considerations ................... 165
Future Choices ................................ 171
Policy ..................................... 171
Enterprise .................................. 174
Organization ................................ 175
Ways Ahead .................................. 177
References ................................... 178
Chapter Six
U.S. MILITARY OPPORTUNITIES: INFORMATION-
WARFARE CONCEPTS OF OPERATION
Brian Nichiporuk .............................. 187
Introduction .................................. 187
What Do We Mean by “Information Warfare”? ....... 188
The Importance of Offensive Information Warfare .... 189
Emerging Asymmetric Strategies ................... 191
Increasing Niche Capabilities .................... 192
Enemy Strategies That Target Key U.S.
Vulnerabilities ............................. 196
Political Constraints on U.S. Force Deployments ..... 198
Developing Operational Concepts for Future Offensive
Information Warfare ........................ 200
Information-Based Deterrence ................... 201
Preserving Strategic Reach ...................... 206
Counterstrike. ............................... 210
Counter-C4ISR ............................... 215
Comparing the Four CONOPs ..................... 219
References ................................... 222
Chapter Seven
NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY
STRATEGY FOR A NEW CENTURY
Glenn Buchan ................................. 225
Why a Reevaluation of U.S. Nuclear Policy Is Needed,
and Why People Should Care .................. 226
The Historical Context: The Legacy, Lessons, and
Constraints ............................... 229
The Cold War Legacy .......................... 229
The Sea Change—The End of the Cold War .......... 235
Contents ix
Why Nukes? .................................. 238
And Why Not ................................. 240
Where Nuclear Weapons Might Fit ................. 241
Terror Weapons for Traditional Deterrence ......... 242
Counterforce ................................ 244
Special Targets. .............................. 245
Critical Military Situations ...................... 246
A Spectrum of Nuclear Options .................... 246
Abolition ................................... 247
Aggressive Reductions and “Dealerting” ............ 249
“Business as Usual, Only Smaller” ................ 254
A More-Aggressive Nuclear Posture ............... 255
Nuclear Emphasis ............................ 256
Issues Affecting U.S. Choices of a Future Nuclear
Strategy .................................. 257
Political Sustainability ......................... 257
Maintaining a Robust Nuclear Deterrent ........... 257
Preparing for Operational Use of Nuclear Weapons ... 258
Characteristics of Nuclear Weapon Systems ......... 261
Exploiting Asymmetries ........................ 262
Nuclear Proliferation .......................... 263
Is “Withering Away” of U.S. Nuclear Capability
Inevitable? ................................ 264
So, Where Do We Go from Here? ................... 266
Bibliography .................................. 274
Chapter Eight
COUNTERING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
AND BALLISTIC MISSILES
Richard F. Mesic ............................... 283
WMD Characteristics and Scenarios ................ 284
Background ................................. 286
Characteristics of WMD Affecting Their Use ......... 290
WMD Scenarios .............................. 295
Implications of These WMD Scenarios ............. 302
Responding to the WMD Threat: Potential Air Force
Initiatives ................................ 306
Potential Air Force TMD Initiatives ................. 308
TMD Concepts of Operation .................... 310
TMD Effectiveness Analyses ..................... 317
x Strategic Appraisal: United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century
Potential Air Force NMD Initiatives ................. 329
Background: The Cold War ..................... 330
Post–Cold War Issues .......................... 332
NMD Systems Implications ..................... 335
Summary .................................... 339
Bibliography .................................. 341
PART III: SUPPORTING FUTURE FORCES ............... 343
Chapter Nine
PROVIDING ADEQUATE ACCESS FOR EXPEDITIONARY
AEROSPACE FORCES
David Shlapak ................................ 345
Overture ..................................... 345
Access Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow ............. 347
A Troublesome Track Record .................... 347
The Current Context of Military Access ............. 350
Access Options: From “Pure” Strategies to a Portfolio .... 358
Five “Pure” Strategies ......................... 359
Embracing Uncertainty with a Mixed Strategy ....... 365
Building the Portfolio: Eight Recommendations ........ 366
Retain Existing MOBs ......................... 367
Build Forward Support Locations ................. 367
Plan for Uncertainty .......................... 368
Build AEFs with Flexible Configurations ............ 369
Develop Improved Active and Passive Defenses ...... 370
Expand Contacts with Potential Partners ........... 371
Adjust the Force Mix .......................... 371
Explore New Options .......................... 372
Summary of Recommendations .................. 373
Concluding Remarks ............................ 373
References ................................... 374
Chaper Ten
A VISION FOR AN EVOLVING AGILE COMBAT SUPPORT
SYSTEM
Robert Tripp and C. Robert Roll, Jr. .................. 377
ACS Decisions and Their “Trade Space” .............. 378
An Analytic Framework for Strategic ACS Planning ...... 381
Key Findings from ACS Modeling Research ........... 383
Overview of a Global ACS System ................... 389