Strategic Airport Planning

185 Pages·2022·5.269 MB·English

by  Mike Brown

STRATEGIC AIRPORT
PLANNING
This book will explore a new approach to airport planning that better captures
the complexities and velocity of change in our contemporary world. As a result,
it will lead to higher performing airports for users, business partners, investors
and other stakeholders. This is especially pertinent since airports will need to
come back better from the Covid-19 pandemic.
The book explains the importance of articulating a clear strategy, based
on a rigorous analysis of the competitive landscape while avoiding the pitfalls
of ambiguity and ‘virtue signalling’. Having done so, demand forecasts can be
developed that resemble S-curves, not simple straight lines, that refect strategic
opportunities and threats from which a master plan can be developed to allocate
land and capital in a way that maximizes return on assets and social licence. The
second distinctive feature of this book is the premise that planning an airport
as an island, a fortress even, does not work anymore given how interconnected
airports are with other components of the transportation system, the eco-
nomies and communities they serve and the rapid pace of social and technolo-
gical change. In summary, the book argues that airport planning needs to move
beyond its traditional boundaries.
The book is replete with real examples from airports of all sizes around the
world and includes practical advice and tools for executives and managers. It
is recommended reading for individuals working in the airport business or the
broader air transport industry, members of airports’ board of directors, who
may be new to the business, elected offcials, policy makers and urban planners
in jurisdictions hosting or adjacent to airports, regulators, economic develop-
ment professionals and, fnally, students.
Mike Brown has 35 years of experience in the airport industry and has completed
strategic plans, master plans and economic impact assessments at Canada’s two
largest airports, Toronto Pearson and Vancouver International, amongst others,
and has a track record of innovation, analytical rigour and successful execution.
Mike is currently Honorary Senior Research Fellow in the Transport Strategy
Centre at Imperial College, London, where he works with nine global hub
airports on improving business performance.
MANAGING AVIATION
OPERATIONS
Series Editor: Peter J. Bruce
Associate Editor: John M. C. King
The purpose of this series is to provide a comprehensive set of mater-
ials dealing with the key components of airline and airport operations.
To date, this innovative approach has not been evident among aviation
topics and certainly not applied to operational areas of airlines or airports.
While more recent works have begun, in brief, to consider the various
characteristics of operational areas, the Managing Aviation Operations
series will expand coverage with far greater breadth and depth of content.
Airlines and airports are devoid of specifc topic knowledge in ready-
made, easy-to-read, creditable resources. Tapping into industry expertise
to drive a range of key niche products will resource the industry in a
way not yet seen in this domain. Therefore, the objective is to deliver
a collection of specialised, internationally sourced and expertly written
books to serve as readily accessible guides and references primarily for
professionals within the industry. The focus of the series editors will be
to ensure product quality, user readability and appeal, and transparent
consistency across the range.
Airline Operations Control
Peter J. Bruce and Chris Mulholland
Aviation Leadership
The Accountable Manager
Mark Pierotti
Strategic Airport Planning
Mike Brown
For more information about this series, please visit: www.routledge.
com/Aviation-Fundamentals/book-series/MAO
STRATEGIC
AIRPORT
PLANNING
MIKE BROWN
Cover image: © Getty Images
First published 2022
by Routledge
4 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2022 Mike Brown
The right of Mike Brown to be identifed as author of this work has been
asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs
and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced
or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means,
now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording,
or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in
writing from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or
registered trademarks, and are used only for identifcation and explanation
without intent to infringe.
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
A catalog record has been requested for this book
ISBN: 978-1-032-00237-8 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-032-00235-4 (pbk)
ISBN: 978-1-003-17326-7 (ebk)
DOI: 10.4324/9781003173267
Typeset in Galliard
by codeMantra
I would like to dedicate this book to the memory of Dr Michael Williams,
Sir Walter Raleigh Fellow and Tutor in Geography at Oriel College,
Oxford who frst taught me about S-curves, Michael O’ Brien, formerly
Vice President, Strategy at Vancouver Airport Authority and Michael
Matthews, Project Director, 2027 Vancouver International Airport
Master Plan, for teaching me the craft of strategic and master planning
and fnally Howard Eng, former President and Chief Executive Offcer
of the Greater Toronto Airports Authority, for giving me the oppor-
tunity to hone those skills at Toronto Pearson.

CONTENTS
List of Figures xi
List of Tables xv
Acknowledgements xvii
CHAPTER 1 Why Plan? 1
How to Build an Airport 1
Immovable Objects and Irresistible Forces 2
The Pyramid of Planning 4
Summary and Conclusions 5
CHAPTER 2 Strategic Planning 7
Introduction 7
The Strategic Trilemma 7
Strategic Templates 11
Porter’s Five Competitive Forces 12
Airport Business Sub-Components 20
Summary and Conclusions 24
CHAPTER 3 Demand Forecasting 26
The S-curve 26
Case Study: Toronto Pearson International Airport 28
Case Study: Seattle-Tacoma International Airport 30
Case Study: Cincinnati 30
Case Study: Honolulu International Airport 31
Case Study: Hong Kong International Airport 33
Case Study: Buffalo, NY 33
Forecasting Techniques 35
Propensity for Air Travel 37
Case Study: Brazil and Malaysia 38
System Forecasting 38
Airport Size 41
Forecast Outputs 42
vii
CONTENTS
Other Forecasting Techniques 49
Big Data 52
Forecasting and the Pyramid of Planning 53
External Shocks 53
Summary and Conclusions 55
CHAPTER 4 Master Planning for Passengers 58
Introduction 58
Translating Demand into Supply 59
On-Airport/Off-Airport 65
Pricing 66
Supply 67
Hierarchies 72
Land Use Plan 75
Cross Checks 75
Thinking about the Passenger 78
Summary and Conclusions 80
CHAPTER 5 Master Planning for Cargo 83
Introduction 83
Demand Forecasting 84
Regional 87
Multi-Modal 89
Infection Points 89
Directionality 90
Distributed 90
Forecast Outputs 91
Translating Demand into Supply 94
Thinking about the Shipper 96
Stimulation 98
Summary and Conclusions 98
CHAPTER 6 Airport Area Planning 103
Introduction 103
Airport Area Characteristics 103
Airport Area: Size 104
Airport Area: Characteristics 105
Impact on Commercial Property Values 109
Case Studies 111
Warehouses 117
Residential 118
Integrated Planning 121
Summary and Conclusions 122
viii
CONTENTS
CHAPTER 7 Economic Impact 125
Introduction 125
Traditional Approach 125
Targeted Impacts 129
Construction Impacts 129
Catalytic Impacts 130
Geography of Economic Impacts 133
Productivity 137
Innovation 138
Shaping the Economy 140
Automation 140
Summary and Conclusions 142
CHAPTER 8 Looking Ahead 146
Introduction 146
One Hundred Years Ago 146
Covid-19 Pandemic Recovery 148
Climate Change 150
Disruption 153
Intangible Assets 153
Summary and Conclusions 154
CHAPTER 9 Summary and Conclusions 156
Overview 156
Step-by-Step 157
Concluding Remarks 160
Index 161
ix