Straight Talk on Trade Straight Talk on Trade Ideas for a sane World economy Dani Rodrik PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS Princeton and Oxford Copyright © 2018 by Dani Rodrik Requests for permission to reproduce material from this work should be sent to Permissions, Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TR press.princeton.edu All Rights Reserved ISBN 978-0-691-17784-7 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017945414 British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available This book has been composed in Bembo Std Printed on acid-free paper. ∞ Printed in the United States of America 1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2 To my children Deniz, Odile, and Delphine, who replenish my faith daily that the world will become a better place C O N T E N T S Preface ix chapter 1 A Better Balance 1 chapter 2 How Nations Work 15 chapter 3 Europe’s Struggles 48 chapter 4 Work, Industrialization, and Democracy 79 chapter 5 Economists and Their Models 114 chapter 6 The Perils of Economic Consensus 139 chapter 7 Economists, Politics, and Ideas 159 chapter 8 Economics as Policy Innovation 181 chapter 9 What Will Not Work 202 chapter 10 New Rules for the Global Economy 222 chapter 11 Growth Policies for the Future 239 chapter 12 It’s the Politics, Stupid! 267 Acknowledgments 275 Notes 281 Index 301 P R E FAC E Are economists responsible for Donald Trump’s shocking victory in the US presidential election? Economists might only wish they have the kind of power it takes to determine elections. But even if they may not have caused (or stopped) Trump, one thing is certain: econo- mists would have had a greater—and much more positive—impact on the public debate had they stuck closer to their discipline’s teaching, instead of siding with globalization’s cheerleaders. Nearly two decades ago, as my book Has Globalization Gone Too Far? went to press, I approached a well-known economist to ask him if he would provide an endorsement for the back cover. I claimed in the book that, in the absence of a more concerted government response, too much globalization would deepen societal divisions, exacerbate distributional problems, and undermine domestic social bargains— arguments that have become conventional wisdom since. The economist demurred. He didn’t really disagree with any of the analysis but worried that my book would provide “ammunition for the barbarians.” Protectionists would latch on to the book’s arguments about the downsides of globalization to provide cover for their narrow, selfish agenda. It’s a reaction I still get from my fellow economists. One of them will hesitantly raise his hand following a talk and ask: Don’t you worry ix
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