Stock Trader's Almanac 2016 PDF
Preview Stock Trader's Almanac 2016
Copyright © 2016 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Editor in Chief Jeffrey A. Hirsch Editor at Large Yale Hirsch Director of Research Christopher Mistal Production Editor Steven Kyritz No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400, fax 978-646-8600, or on the web at www.copyright.com. 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ISBN: 978-1-119-11068-2 (paper) ISBN: 978-1-119-18933-6 (ebk) ISBN: 978-1-119-18930-5 (ebk) This Forty-Ninth Edition is respectfully dedicated to: Sy L. Harding (1935-2015) and Michael L. Burke (1935-2014) Since the last edition, we have lost these two legends of Wall Street. We were privileged to know both gentlemen and continue to benefit immeasurably from their work. Renowned fundamental and technical analysis, award winning market timing, prolific market research, and distinguished investment newsletters; Sy and Mike will be deeply missed. Mike was Editor of Chartcraft publications and Investors Intelligence from 1982 to 1999 and co-editor with John Gray 2000–2014. He taught fundamental and technical analysis at the New School, New York from 1978–1990 and was a columnist and contributing editor of the Moneypaper from 1983–2012. He authored The Three Box Reversal Method of Point and Figure: Construction and Formations (Chartcraft) in 1999. Mike developed Point and Figure Relative Strength analysis for stocks. He created the Broad Industry Group Bullish %'s technique for finding depressed stock market sectors about to rally and the industry group Insider Analysis as a leading indicator of what senior corporate executives think about the next moves in their companies' share price. He inaugurated a number of different model portfolios, including the Fidelity Switch Fund concentrating on equities, Fidelity bond and international funds, and three portfolios of individual stocks: Low-Priced, Long-Term, and Income & Appreciation. To this day, we continue to incorporate Investors Intelligence research and indicators into our market analysis. Sy was a true man of all seasons. He was one of the foremost proponents of market seasonality, cycles, and recurring historical patterns, so naturally we were keen on each other's research, analysis, strategies, and systems. Sy enhanced our Best Six Months Switching Strategy (pages 52, 54, 60 and 62) with MACD triggers, dubbing it the “best mechanical system ever.” He founded Asset Management Research Corp in 1988 and published the Street Smart Report, providing research, analysis, and timing on the stock, gold, and bond markets. With a background in engineering as founder and owner of two high-tech manufacturing firms, it was natural that his research involved technical analysis and charting as well as fundamentals. Sy was frequently ranked in the “Top Ten Market Timers in the U.S.” He authored the 1999 book Riding the Bear: How to Prosper in the Coming Bear Market (Adams Media), which accurately predicted the 2000–2002 bear market, and How to Beat the Market the Easy Way! (Wheatmark) in 2007, just prior to the 2007–2009 bear market, which introduced market-timing strategies for down markets. CONTENTS INTRODUCTION TO THE FORTY-NINTH EDITION NOTABLE EVENTS 2015 RECAP/2016 OUTLOOK 2016 STRATEGY CALENDAR JANUARY ALMANAC FEBRUARY ALMANAC MARCH ALMANAC APRIL ALMANAC MAY ALMANAC JUNE ALMANAC JULY ALMANAC AUGUST ALMANAC SEPTEMBER ALMANAC OCTOBER ALMANAC NOVEMBER ALMANAC DECEMBER ALMANAC DIRECTORY OF TRADING PATTERNS AND DATABANK CONTENTS DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2016 RECENT DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2016 S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2016 RECENT S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2016 NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2016 RECENT NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2016 RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2016 RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2016 DECENNIAL CYCLE: A MARKET PHENOMENON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION/STOCK MARKET CYCLE: THE 182- YEAR SAGA CONTINUES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS BULL and BEAR MARKETS SINCE 1900 STANDARD & POOR'S 500 BULL and BEAR MARKETS SINCE 1929 NASDAQ COMPOSITE SINCE 1971 JANUARY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS FEBRUARY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARCH DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS APRIL DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MAY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS JUNE DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS JULY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AUGUST DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS SEPTEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS OCTOBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS NOVEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS DECEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS A TYPICAL DAY IN THE MARKET THROUGH THE WEEK ON A HALF-HOURLY BASIS TUESDAY MOST PROFITABLE DAY OF WEEK NASDAQ STRONGEST LAST 3 DAYS OF WEEK S&P DAILY PERFORMANCE EACH YEAR SINCE 1952 NASDAQ DAILY PERFORMANCE EACH YEAR SINCE 1971 MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO S&P STOCKS MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO NASDAQ STOCKS NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, AND JANUARY: YEAR'S BEST THREE-MONTH SPAN NOVEMBER THROUGH JUNE: NASDAQ'S EIGHT-MONTH RUN DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1901 S&P 500 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1930 NASDAQ ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1971 RUSSELL 1000 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1979 RUSSELL 2000 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1979 DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1950 DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY POINT CHANGES SINCE 1950 DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1950 STANDARD & POOR'S 500 MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1950 STANDARD & POOR'S 500 MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1950 NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1971 NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1971 RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1979 RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1979 RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1979 RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1979 10 BEST DAYS BY PERCENT AND POINT 10 WORST DAYS BY PERCENT AND POINT 10 BEST WEEKS BY PERCENT AND POINT 10 WORST WEEKS BY PERCENT AND POINT 10 BEST MONTHS BY PERCENT AND POINT 10 WORST MONTHS BY PERCENT AND POINT 10 BEST QUARTERS BY PERCENT AND POINT 10 WORST QUARTERS BY PERCENT AND POINT 10 BEST YEARS BY PERCENT AND POINT 10 WORST YEARS BY PERCENT AND POINT DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN CHARTS SINCE 1901 S&P 500 ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN CHARTS SINCE 1930 NASDAQ, RUSSELL 1000 & 2000 ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN CHARTS SINCE 1971 STRATEGY PLANNING AND RECORD SECTION CONTENTS PORTFOLIO AT START OF 2016 ADDITIONAL PURCHASES ADDITIONAL PURCHASES SHORT-TERM TRANSACTIONS LONG-TERM TRANSACTIONS INTEREST/DIVIDENDS RECEIVED DURING 2016 BROKERAGE ACCOUNT DATA 2016 WEEKLY PORTFOLIO PRICE RECORD 2016 (FIRST HALF) WEEKLY PORTFOLIO PRICE RECORD 2016 (SECOND HALF) WEEKLY INDICATOR DATA 2016 (FIRST HALF) WEEKLY INDICATOR DATA 2016 (SECOND HALF) MONTHLY INDICATOR DATA 2016 PORTFOLIO AT END OF 2016 IF YOU DON'T PROFIT FROM YOUR INVESTMENT MISTAKES, SOMEONE ELSE WILL PERFORMANCE RECORD OF RECOMMENDATIONS INDIVIDUAL RETIREMENT ACCOUNT (IRA): MOST AWESOME MASS INVESTMENT INCENTIVE EVER DEVISED G. M. LOEB'S “BATTLE PLAN” FOR INVESTMENT SURVIVAL G. M. LOEB'S INVESTMENT SURVIVAL CHECKLIST EULA
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