Stock Trader's Almanac 2013 PDF
Preview Stock Trader's Almanac 2013
Contents Cover Title Page Copyright Dedication INTRODUCTION TO THE FORTY-SIXTH EDITION NOTABLE EVENTS 2013 OUTLOOK 2013 STRATEGY CALENDAR JANUARY ALMANAC January Vital Statistics DECEMBER 2012/JANUARY 2013 JANUARY’S FIRST FIVE DAYS: AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM THE FIRST-FIVE-DAYS-IN-JANUARY INDICATOR JANUARY THE INCREDIBLE JANUARY BAROMETER (DEVISED 1972): ONLY Seven SIGNIFICANT ERRORS IN 62 YEARS AS JANUARY GOES, SO GOES THE YEAR JANUARY JANUARY BAROMETER IN GRAPHIC FORM SINCE 1950 JANUARY FEBRUARY ALMANAC February Vital Statistics JANUARY/FEBRUARY HOT JANUARY INDUSTRIES BEAT S&P NEXT 11 MONTHS AS JANUARY GOES, SO GOES THE YEAR FOR TOP- PERFORMING INDUSTRIES FEBRUARY MARKET BEHAVIOR AFTER SITTING PRESIDENT WINS AND LOSSES POST-ELECTION MARKETS WHEN SITTING PRESIDENT WINS REELECTION FEBRUARY THE THIRD YEAR OF DECADES FEBRUARY MARCH ALMANAC March Vital Statistics FEBRUARY/MARCH MARKET CHARTS OF POST-PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEARS MARCH POST-ELECTION YEAR PERFORMANCE BY PARTY MARKET ACTION UNDER REPUBLICANS & DEMOCRATS SINCE 1953 MARCH POST-ELECTION YEARS: PAYING THE PIPER THE RECORD SINCE 1913 MARCH HOW TO TRADE BEST MONTHS SWITCHING STRATEGIES TRADABLE BEST AND WORST MONTHS SWITCHING STRATEGY FUNDS Become an Almanac Investor MARCH APRIL ALMANAC April Vital Statistics APRIL THE DECEMBER LOW INDICATOR: A USEFUL PROGNOSTICATING TOOL YEARS DOW FELL BELOW DECEMBER LOW IN FIRST QUARTER APRIL DOWN JANUARYS: A REMARKABLE RECORD FROM DOWN JANUARY S&P CLOSES TO LOW NEXT 11 MONTHS APRIL TOP PERFORMING MONTHS PAST 62 YEARS: STANDARD & POOR’S 500 AND DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY % CHANGES (JANUARY 1950 TO APRIL 2012) APRIL MAY ALMANAC May Vital Statistics APRIL/MAY “BEST SIX MONTHS”: STILL AN EYE-POPPING STRATEGY SIX-MONTH SWITCHING STRATEGY MAY MACD-TIMING TRIPLES “BEST SIX MONTHS” RESULTS SIX-MONTH SWITCHING STRATEGY+TIMING MAY MARKET FARES BETTER UNDER DEMOCRATS DOLLAR HOLDS UP UNDER REPUBLICANS THE STOCK MARKET UNDER REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS DECLINE OF THE DOLLAR UNDER REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS MAY JUNE ALMANAC June Vital Statistics MAY/JUNE TOP PERFORMING NASDAQ MONTHS PAST 41 YEARS MONTHLY % CHANGES (JANUARY 1971 TO APRIL 2011) JUNE GET MORE OUT OF NASDAQ’S “BEST EIGHT MONTHS” WITH MACD TIMING BEST EIGHT MONTHS STRATEGY + TIMING JUNE TRIPLE RETURNS, FEWER TRADES: BEST 6 + 4-YEAR CYCLE FOUR TRADES EVERY FOUR YEARS BEST SIX MONTHS+TIMING+4-YEAR CYCLE STRATEGY JUNE FIRST MONTH OF QUARTERS IS THE MOST BULLISH DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS, S&P 500, AND NASDAQ AVERAGE MONTHLY % CHANGES BY QUARTER JUNE JULY ALMANAC July Vital Statistics JULY 2011 DAILY DOW POINT CHANGES (DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE) JULY DON’T SELL STOCKS ON Monday or FRIDAY ANNUAL DOW POINT CHANGES FOR DAYS OF THE WEEK SINCE 1953 JULY A RALLY FOR ALL SEASONS SEASONAL GAINS IN DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS JULY AUGUST ALMANAC August Vital Statistics JULY/AUGUST REPUBLICAN CONGRESS & DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT BEST FOR THE MARKET DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE ANNUAL % CHANGE SINCE 1949–2011 AUGUST AURA OF THE TRIPLE WITCH—4th QUARTER most BULLISH: DOWN WEEKS TRIGGER MORE WEAKNESS WEEK AFTER TRIPLE WITCHING WEEK AND WEEK AFTER DOW POINT CHANGES AUGUST TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DOWN FRIDAY/ DOWN MONDAY WARNING DOWN FRIDAY/DOWN MONDAYS DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS (NOVEMBER 2010–MAY 18, 2012) AUGUST SEPTEMBER ALMANAC September Vital Statistics AUGUST/SEPTEMBER A CORRECTION FOR ALL SEASONS SEASONAL CORRECTIONS IN DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS SEPTEMBER FIRST-TRADING-DAY-OF-THE-MONTH PHENOMENON: DOW GAINS MORE ONE DAY THAN ALL OTHER DAYS DOW POINTS GAINED FIRST DAY OF MONTH SEPTEMBER 1997 TO MAY 18, 2012 SUMMARY FIRST DAYS VS. OTHER DAYS OF MONTH SEPTEMBER MARKET BEHAVIOR THREE DAYS BEFORE AND THREE DAYS AFTER HOLIDAYS HOLIDAYS: 3 DAYS BEFORE, 3 DAYS AFTER (Average % change 1980 to April 2012) SEPTEMBER MARKET GAINS MORE ON SUPER-8 DAYS each MONTH THAN ON ALL 13 REMAINING DAYS COMBINED SUPER-8 DAYS* DOW % CHANGES VS. REST OF MONTH SEPTEMBER OCTOBER ALMANAC October Vital Statistics SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER SECTOR SEASONALITY: SELECTED PERCENTAGE PLAYS SECTOR INDEX SEASONALITY TABLE OCTOBER Sector Index Seasonality Strategy Calendar* OCTOBER Sector Index Seasonality Strategy Calendar* OCTOBER NOVEMBER ALMANAC November Vital Statistics OCTOBER/NOVEMBER FOURTH QUARTER MARKET MAGIC QUARTERLY % CHANGES NOVEMBER TRADING THE THANKSGIVING MARKET DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS BEFORE AND AFTER THANKSGIVING NOVEMBER MOST OF THE SO-CALLED “JANUARY EFFECT” TAKES PLACE IN THE LAST HALF OF DECEMBER 25-YEAR AVERAGE RATES OF RETURN (DEC 1987 TO FEB 2012) NOVEMBER DECEMBER ALMANAC December Vital Statistics NOVEMBER/DECEMBER JANUARY EFFECT NOW STARTS IN MID-DECEMBER RUSSELL 2000/RUSSELL 1000 ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN RUSSELL 2000/RUSSELL 1000 (1979 to April 2012) DECEMBER WALL STREET’S ONLY “FREE LUNCH” SERVED BEFORE CHRISTMAS BARGAIN STOCKS VS. THE MARKET* DECEMBER IF SANTA CLAUS SHOULD FAIL TO CALL, BEARS MAY COME TO BROAD AND WALL DAILY % CHANGE IN S&P 500 AT YEAR END DECEMBER BEST INVESTMENT BOOK OF THE YEAR: What’s Behind the Numbers YEAR’S TOP INVESTMENT BOOKS DECEMBER YEAR’S TOP INVESTMENT BOOKS DECEMBER/JANUARY 2014 2014 STRATEGY CALENDAR 2014 STRATEGY CALENDAR DIRECTORY OF TRADING PATTERNS AND DATABANK CONTENTS DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013 RECENT DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013 S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013 RECENT S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013 NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013 RECENT NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013 RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013 RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013 DECENNIAL CYCLE: A MARKET PHENOMENON THE 10-YEAR STOCK MARKET CYCLE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION/STOCK MARKET CYCLE: THE 179- YEAR SAGA CONTINUES STOCK MARKET ACTION SINCE 1833 DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS BULL and BEAR MARKETS SINCE 1900 DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS BULL AND BEAR MARKETS SINCE 1900 STANDARD & POOR’S 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS SINCE 1929 NASDAQ COMPOSITE SINCE 1971 STANDARD & POOR’S 500 BULL AND BEAR MARKETS NASDAQ COMPOSITE BULL AND BEAR MARKETS JANUARY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS FEBRUARY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARCH DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS APRIL DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MAY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS JUNE DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS JULY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AUGUST DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS SEPTEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS OCTOBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS NOVEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS DECEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS A TYPICAL DAY IN THE MARKET MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH HALF-HOUR OF THE DAY (January 1987 to April 27, 2012) MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH HOUR OF THE DAY (November 1963 to June 1985) THROUGH THE WEEK ON A HALF-HOURLY BASIS TUESDAY MOST PROFITABLE DAY OF WEEK MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE WEEK (June 1952 to December 1989) MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE WEEK (January 1990 to May 4, 2012) NASDAQ STRONGEST LAST 3 DAYS OF WEEK NASDAQ % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE WEEK (1971 to 1989) NASDAQ % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE WEEK (1990 to May 4, 2012) S&P DAILY PERFORMANCE EACH YEAR SINCE 1952 PERCENTAGE OF TIMES MARKET CLOSED HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAY NASDAQ DAILY PERFORMANCE EACH YEAR SINCE 1971 PERCENTAGE OF TIMES NASDAQ CLOSED HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAY MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO S&P STOCKS MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE MONTH (January 1953 to December 1981) MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE MONTH (January 1982 to December 2011) MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO NASDAQ STOCKS NASDAQ % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE MONTH (January 1971 to December 1981) NASDAQ % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE MONTH (January 1982 to December 2011) NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, AND JANUARY: YEAR’S BEST THREE-MONTH SPAN S&P 500 MONTHLY % PERFORMANCE January 1950 to April 2012 NOVEMBER THROUGH JUNE: NASDAQ’S EIGHT-MONTH RUN NASDAQ MONTHLY PERFORMANCE January 1971 to April 2012 DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1901 S&P 500 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1930 NASDAQ ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1971 RUSSELL 1000 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1979 RUSSELL 2000 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1979 DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGE SINCE 1950 DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY POINT CHANGES SINCE 1950 DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1950 STANDARD & POOR’S 500 MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1950 STANDARD & POOR’S 500 MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1950 NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1971 NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1971 RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1979 RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1979
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