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Interviews with America's TsreodarT kpcotS Jack D. Schwager HarperBusiness An Imprint of HarperCollinsPwWuAm While the methods of investment described in this book are believed to be effective In memory of my mother, Margaret Schwager, loved by all there is no guarantee that the methods will be profitable in specific applications, owing who knew her for her kindness, empathy, and sincerity. to the risk that is involved in investing of almost any kind. Moreover, readers are specifically advised that the author may invest in certain of the traders about which he is writing (or has written) and/or may be affiliated with hedge fund(s) that so invest with and such persons or entities. Neither the publisher nor the author assumes liability for any losses that may be sustained by the use of the method described in this book, and/or this potential conflict of interest, and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. In memory of my brother, Kerwin Farkas, deeply loved by family and many friends whose support never waned_ .regawhcS .D kcaJ yb 1002 © thgirypoC .SDRAZIW TESKTROACMK a reflection of a life well lived. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. For information address HarperCollins Publishers, Inc., 10 East 53rd Street, New York, NY 10022. HarperCollins books may be purchased for educational, business, or sales promotional use. For information please write: Special Markets Department, HarperCollins Publishers, Inc., 10 East 53rd Street, New York, NY 10022. FIRST EDITION Designed lay Fearn Cutler Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Schwager, Jack D., 1948- Stock market wizards : interviews with America's top stock traders / by Jack D. Schwager. p. cm. ISBN 0-06-662058-9 1. Stockbrokers—United States—Interviews. 2. Investment advisors—United States—Interviews. 3. Floor traders (Finance)—United States—Interviews. 4. Futures market—United States. 5. Financial futures—United States. I. Title. HG4621 .S2862001 337. 64'0973—dc21 00-058154 CONTENTS Acknowledgments « g n\iinnigeB suoicipsuanI nA :eugolorP :notlaW trautS >" ssBybA aehtc mokrf Michael Lauer: daF fo ylloF eht ,eulaV fo modsiW ehT> 30 :nostaW evetS > Dialing for Dollars 54 :etnalaG anaD tnerruC eht tsniagA^ 75 Mark D. Cook: >«•g nitsevraH S&PstiforP 95 " yFddleutBc"h :e.resJnr ohplA >• Win-Win Investing 127 Ahmet Okumus: * Frow Istanbul to Wall Street Bull 148 Mark Minervini: > Stock Around the Clock 169 :uaebracseL evetS metsyS gnidarT etamithlU eh-T ]89 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS :sretsaM leahciM stekraM eht hguorhT gnimmiw*S• 207 John Bender: !*> Questioning the Obvious 22J Claudio Guazzoni: t- Eliminating the Downside 239 Although I found most of the traders in this book through personal contacts dedivorp stxet dna sesabatad reganam yenom lareves ,yrtsudni eht ni David Shaw: helpful references. In particular, I would cite the following: 254 ]»• The Quantitative Edge detadpu si hcihw ,margorp erawtfos sihT .swodniW rof PAM yalcraB Steve Cohen: egdeh fo esabatad egral ylevisserpmi na fo sehcraes swolla ,ylhtnom m /~o»;<o$R t gnidarT ehT OD 275 -ni eht stimrep dna evitiutni ylhgih si margorp ehT .sreganam dnuf vestor to extract and rank those trading programs that meet multiple Ari Kiev, M.D.: user-defined criteria. (Barclay Trading Group: [641] 472-3456; www. ^ The Mind of a Winner 288 barclaygrp.com.) Van Hedge Fund Advisors International Inc. (VAN). A hedge fund Wizard Lessons 2-n9iam8 dna sexedni dnuf egdeh nwo sti selipmoc taht ecivres yrosivda dedivorp ynapmoc ehT .sesabatad dnuf egdeh tsegral eht fo eno sniat Appendix: Options—Understanding the Basics 327 me with the results of a computer search of hedge fund managers meet- . airetirc( fo t[es e6vitci.rwt1swerw y ;l8e54m7e4r-t1x]6e6 y m gni Index 33J hedgefund .com.) ATC fo muidnepmoc evisneherpmoc ylretrauq A .tropeR ATC ehT performance results, containing a well-designed two-page layout of tables rof etis beW esu-ot-ysae na osla si erehT .ATC hcae rof strahc dna ohw sreganam srevoc ecivres siht ,seilpmi eman ehy utlp hdsatAtnes o. m specialize in futures trading; only a small portion of these managers focus -954 ]858[ :.cnI ,hcraeseR sredarT lanoitanretnI( .sevitavired ytiuqe no 0818; www. managedfutures. com.) -noc taht noitacilbup launna nA .yrotceriD sdnuF erohsffO .S.U ehT ACKN01 IM tains one-page summaries and annual returns for over 700 offshore hedge funds. There is also a web link for updates. ([212] 371-5935; www. hedgefundnews .com) PROLOGUE When I began my search for traders worthy of inclusion in this vol- An Inauspicious Beginning -dnif no reerac a tliub sah eH .ecaepekaM guoD ot saw llac tsrif ym ,emu ing and investing his own and client funds with exceptional traders. Doug was most generous in sharing information with me, even though doing so eht ni sredart eseht htiw sdnuf lanoitidda tsevni ot ytiliba sih denetaerht .nwonk llew oot emaceb yeht fi erutuf -aef era srotacidni esohw tsylana lacinhcet denwoner a ,kraMeD moT tured on many of the country's leading financial data services, was partic- M efrreaonm Mars because they mise sfhleitdo g Vht tenus. Who elten ave ularly vigorous in his efforts to help me find traders for this book. Tom is for the airport has always been a subject that my wife and I have viewed dlrow laiciffonu eht gnidloh ,ecnatsissa hcus edivorp ot noitisop doog a ni from different perspectives—my view: late enough to make it exciting; record as the technical analyst who has worked for the most (four) Mar- my wife's view: early enough to allow for a traffic jam, a flat tire, airport .snoitazinagro rieht ro sdraziW tek .thgilf eht erofeb laem esruoc lluf a dna ,gnippohs Marty Schwartz and Linda Raschke were two former Market Wizards dna emit eraps yna rof gniwolla tuohtiw stropria rof tfel I sraey roF ("former" referring to the books in which their intervs'iaehtwraMs ota dpevpome aI r,oegad s,h tnnomo tneethgie tuobA .thgilf a dessim reven siht rof sdraziW tekraM wen dnif em depleh ohw )tnelat gnidart rieht Vineyard, where the travel time to the airport can be accurately estimated book. os si tropria eht esuaceb dna nosaes-ffo cie flhfimat riftteod esuaceb Other industry contacts who were particularly helpful in aiding my small—sort of like the one in the one in the old TV series Wings, only search fore gcrneiast tsraahdi ntrgo tparleiant winecnlu dae ;:k Soool bW saikhstm nana gaenbd GIe noerghew V asna;w B otib tsael tA( .rellams Morris, Andy Good, Tony Cimirusti, Loran Fleckenstein, and Jason Perl. opened.) koob yna fo ytilauq gnitirw eht etaulave ot tluciffid ylemertxe ti dnif I s'ahtraM ot devom dah ew retfa shtnom wef a ylno ,gninrom enO I am working on. I lose all sense of perspective. For this reason, it is Vineyard, my wife, Jo Ann, and I were scheduled to fly to Boston. I was so si koob eht sa kcabdeef evitcejbo edivorp ot enoemos evah ot elbaulavni tfel I taht emit no tropria eht ot gnitteg fo ytilibatciderp eht tuoba ykcoc being written. Enter my wife, Jo Ann, who read the final draft of each our house—approximately a twenty-minute drive away—only thirty-five chapter as soon as it was completed. Her promptness in performing this minutes before the scheduled departure time. The drive took a few min- task was not a reflection of her eagerness to read the material—in fact, utes longer than expected, due to being stuck behind a slow driver on the few topics interest her less than tohoet tfiibn aelnttcili aal tmsuja rtik teutcs —dahb uIt dreaztilhaeerr Ia ;rdeaso-r enal-elgnis ,gnissap-on ignation to the inevitable in the face of my unrelenting nagging. ("Have tight. t i dayer uoyet sencoth de?doivor"p nmnA) oJ ments—sometimeyllasturb "We'll still make it," I assured my wife, "but we won't have much extra .detpecca erew hcihws fo olla ylra—en ,snoitsegagus lunfplehd yrev d emeses ekhS ".eemitptical—irratiotnoi dellnup eWa .thgluolht yI ,os eht erussa ylno nac I ,mrof lanif sti ni koob siht fo stcefed eht revetahW the airport entrance only ten minutes before flight time. Even though the reader they would have been that much worse without Jo Ann's input. parking lot was only a stone's throw from the terminal, I dropped Jo Ann at the entrance, saying, "Let them know we're here." XI AN INAUSPICIOUS BEGINNING -tuo gnidnats nnA oe Jt lduannutimoef r eIn, o tuoba denruter I nehW I snap back into reality. I realize that it must be at least five or ten min- side waiting for me with a troubled expression. Confused to see her utes since they called for the boarding of the first group of passengers. I "?gnorw s'tahW" ,deksa I ,ereht look around the waiting area and, to my horror, I discover that it is virtu- -pasid neewteb ssorc a saw taht eciov a ni dias ehs ",tfel enalp ehT" a ees dna ,pirtsria eht ot srood eht hguorht nur ,pu pmuj I .detresed ylla pointment and "I told you so." small plane with propellers whirring. "Wait!" I yell, waving my arms fran- ,hctaw ym ta gnicnalg ,deksa I "?tfel enalp eht ,naem uoy od tahW" detartsehcro ylesicerp elohw ym ees I .enalp eht drawot hsur I sa yllacit even though I knew the exact time. "It's only eight minutes to ten." trip—all four days, four states, and six interviews of it—unraveling on I went into the terminal, angry that the small prop plane had left with- the spot. ta namow eht ot dias I ",ti teg t'nod I" .emit deludehcs eht erofeb su tuo gnidraob der egral ym hsalf I .em stpecretni tnadnetta enilria ehT the airline counter, all prepasrneade mto ebhe ktnhieh ta Ig tgsrriief vtAed . yclumsrtiof msyeasr. eh ",erehwyna gniog ton er'uoY" .ssap She couldn't have been nicer. "Our planes leave as soon as everyone is that it's too late and I missed the plane. But then he adds, "Your section here. Since we hadn't heard from you to tell us you were running late, we will be leaving in five minutes." That's when I learned that at the assumed you weren't coming. If you had called, we would have held the Martha's Vineyard airport "sections" refer to different planes! plane." And, you know, they would have, too; that's how Martha's Vine- I slink back to my seat. The moment of panic having passed, my sense yard works. How could I be angry at anyone other than myself after that of awareness returns, and I am able to appreciate completely the full explanation? tsuj dah I dessarrabme taht tlef I eehmlTaist t. ytidiputs ym fo epocs weivretni eht fx oims go tnnuitonhbnsai—ge dtbhrae wrof-tsaF asked an infrequently seen relative when she was "expecting," only to process for this book. I am scheduled to catch the first flight on an intri- learn subsequently that she had given birth two months earlier but had -retni xis rof syad ruof ni setats ruof ot em ekat lliw taht yrareniti etac obviously retained a good portion of the gained weight. Oops. views. This schedule has no leeway for missed flights. "Okay, okay," you're saying, "a slightly amusing anecdote—maybe— Wiser from experience, I make sure to leave early for the airport, fI :siht ylpmiS "?gnitsevni ro gnidart htiw od ot evah siht seod tahw tub allowing for plenty of extra time. On the drive there, Jo Ann, who is drop- you're too busy picking the lint off your jacket, you're liable to miss the eht sreffo ehS .rezalb eulb ym no tnil evah I taht seciton ,ffo em gnip plane. In other words, don't get so caught up in the details that you miss ot epat rof retnuoc tropria eht ta elpoep eht ksa dluohs I taht tnih lufpleh the big picture. Here are some examples of market myopia: brush itts oofmf. W eeh atrr iyvfei atbnoeudt ith iortty mgniniuytrets eharclyra. eI speurll uepv tiot sthuea chuxrbe a nsdeod ohw redart a > say good-bye to Jo Ann. After checking in and sitting for a while, I realize promising new technology companies but overlooks the fact that a 70 1 have enough time to take care of my lint-laden jacket. I walk up to the na seilpmi shtnom xis tsap eht gnirud rotces eht ni esir ecirp tnecrep .epat yrassecen eht niatbo dna retnuoc tnemnorivne tnemtsevni ksir-hgih yllausunu There are about a dozen people in the small stwropaeri tdinna gst nermoeotamts .l aiAcn anfeifw s'ynapmoc a seziniturcs ohw redart a> gnidraob woN" :thgilf ym rof tnemecnuonna na si ereht retal stnemom but fails to realize that the company's soaring profits have been due to ezis-epolevne ,citsalp ,der eht tuo llup I ".thgie ot eno staes ,eno noitces tnenimmi eht yb denetaerht era selas erutuf esohw tcudorp elgnis a boarding pass and notice that it is emblazoned with the number 11. entry of new competitors owt ni thgilf llams a hcus draob dluow yeht taht" ,esum I ",tniauq woH" sdohtem yrtne-gnimit retteb gnidnif htiw dessorgne si ohw redart aK sections." I sit down and return to my lint-removal project. lliw woh dna nehW :sa snoitseuq lacitirc hcus serongi yllautriv tub ylnedduS .tekcaj ym ffo tnil gnikcip ,yldednimtnesba ereht gnittis m'I ?dellortnoc eb ksir lliw woH ?detixe eb snoitisop a niatniaM :egassem cisab emas eht niatnoc selpmaxe eseht fo llA whole-picture perspective. Focus on the entire market and the sector, not just the individual stock. Be attentive to qualitative factors, not just the STUART WALTON -mocne taht nalp gnidart a poleveD .noitamrofni evitatitnauq elbaliava .ygetarts yrtne eht tsuj ton ,gnidart fo stcepsa eht lla sessap ssybA eht morf kcaB In June 1999, at the peak Of his career, after eight years establishing one of the. htiwe h1 td9 9nf0oas ,sdrocer kcart gnidart kcots yranidroartxe tsom ot yenom lla denruter notlaW trautS ,tnemeganam rednu noill$ i1m50 his investors and walked away from trading completely. The emotional repercussions of a marital breakup were interfering with his ability to litnu yenom eganam ot thgir sat owfne tedili d eh dna ,gnidart no sucof he could once again devote "100 percent energy and enthusiasm" to the gnidnu1otsa 1na de5veihca dah eh ,sraey thgie gnidecerp eht nI .ksat tnecrep 29( stiforp gnidart ni nruter dednuopmoc launna egareva tnecrep for his clients after deducting management fees), with annual returns ranging from a high of 274 percent to a low of 63 percent (excluding the .)raey1 la9itr9a9p Stuart Walton's career as a trader is marked by a string of contradic- tions and paradoxes. He wanted to be an artist or a writer; he became a trader. Though he valued academics and disdained the financial world, taht hcum os gnidart detah ecno eH .noisseforp sih emaceb stekram eht he awoke feeling that he couldn't do it for another day and quit his job that morning; several years later, the markets were his endeavor and pas- sion. His initial forays into stock trading were marked by such ineptitude taht delliks os emaceb yltneuqesbus eh tey ,tpurknab tnew ylraen eh taht .yllaunna yenom sih delbuod naht erom eh I visited Walton, a Canadian expatriate, at his office in downtown San Francisco. I discovered that, although managing a nine-digit sum, he had no trading assistants, no back office staff, no marketing people, no pro- ,latipaC reednieR ,mrif siH .yraterces emit-lluf a neve ton ,sremmarg BACK FROM THFABYSS -vah retfA .etarebiled saw noitalosi siH .t eWranauolttloSan fo detsisnoc si ro ,eman eht yb ezilobmys ot hsiw uoy elpicnirp emos ereht sI ot emoc dah eh ,snoinipo dna spit ot gninetsil yb netfo os gnorw enog gni it just a matter of honoring your great-grandfather? realize the importance of not being influenced by others whiylteeic otsr oatd euilnavg e.rom dedda rehtafdnarg-taerg ym taht elpoep llet I Walton was relaxed and outgoing. We talked for five hours straight than I ever will. without interruption. The time passed quickly. When did you first get involved in the markets? As soon as I graduated from McGill University with an M.B.A. I orig- .tsinootrac a eb ot detnaw yllani tsuj uoy era ro mrif eht fo eman eht ot ecnacifingis emos ereht sI eht eb ot gninnalp uoy ereW ?.A.B.M na htiw tsinootrac A partial to reindeer? world's first business cartoonist? enotsdalG mailliW ,rehtafdnarg-taerg ym retfa deman si mrmif eohTrf detaudarg I nehW .reilrae emac snoitibma tsinootrac eht ,oN eh kert suomaf a rof "reednieR" emankcin eht nevig saw ohw ,notlaW eht htiw nwod tas 1 .tsinootrac a eb ot detnaw yletinifed I ,egelloc conceived and led. Much woof nwkh auto Iy k lneoewf uab, oe"oymIuf t dhliomt Ie hle adrnnaed , tfnroemmtraped tra eht fo daeh my grandfather, who passe-dsa maw eahyt lfaos te nyoea sra a ltl ethwe saag ye doofb o nnaem huuhn derhetd t,neserper dna ward ot woh ruohn arreropw lsyr malilsosindg ethve iffe aet kofa hmav inogt lidveedr ainp tehrrepe nseephartat ee crean tdurnieas. yrotsih tra fo sret n oottl ldaneWal grleneEtd nieR ,eerht-y ntIne1wt 8fo e9ga e2ht t,a drawing cartoons, then this is definitely the career path for you." His work as a missionary in northern Canada. He typically traveled over emos enod osla dah I .snalp ym no retaw dloc emos werht stnemmoc two thousand miles a year by canoe and dogsled, visiting his far-flung writing in college, and a few of my short stories had been published. I constituency—the Indians and Eskimos that lived around the Arctic thought that journalism might be a good alternative career path that Circle. .ytivitaerc emos dewolla One year, vast forest fires swept through northern Quebec, Your interests seem to be so strongly artistic. Why did you go for gnivael dna ,emag dna noitategev s'noiger eht lla tsomla gniyortsed an M.B.A.? the native population at the brink of starvation. Reindeer Walton Because the journalism idea fell through as well, and I decided I era hcihw ,reednier nairebiS eht gnidreh fo aedi eht htiw pu emac needed to earn a living. also called caribou, from Alaska to northern Quebec. Through sheer ?msilanruoj htiw gnorw tnew tahW eht ecnanif ot tnemnrevog naidanaC eht decnivnoc eh ,ecnarevesrep I applied to several journalism schools. That summer, while visiting trek, which he organized and led. It took him five years, from 1921 tollac noitcejer a deviecer I ,emit eht ta lizarB ni erew ohw ,stnerap ym -nieR .adanaC nrehtron ssorca reednier dnasuoh1t ee9rht2 dre5h o,t from Carleton University, which was my first choice for a journalism deer are not like cattle; they move only when they want to move, and school. I received the call during a party. Maybe it was because I'd .snoitcerid tnereffid lla ni og yeht ,noitcocnoc mur rieht s nicaa ihilpciizriihanrhwBas , ynam oot dah ?rehtegot dedreh meht peek eh did woH but I said to myself, "I guess this is another one of life's crossroads." Caribou will follow the feeding path. He used a lot of foresight in I sseug I .tsilanruoj a gnimoceb fo aedi eht pu evig ot dediced I oS fo sretrauq-eerht gnitteg ni dedeeccus eH .etuor thgir eht gnisoohc .ti eusrup ot hguone yldab ti od ot tnaw t'ndid the herd to migrate; the remainder diemds iolar ndruisopj emrsoerfd .n oHitcise jetrre rku opye rrmedais-noc uoy od ,tcepsorter nI -rop ehT .reednier nairebiS rof snrettap noitargim eht degnahc yltnen ?tneve ykcul a loohcs tion of the herd that survived flourished in northern Quebec, and he I consider it a huge stroke of luck. My father always told me that I s'eh kniht I .reerbaeccam ye ma loc dal nhearo .seibboh ym neewteb etaitnereffid ot dah TRWAAUTLSTQ* BACK FROM THE ABYSS gnivah ton ta sterger yna dah I fi em deksa yltnecer rehtom yM .thgir They sent me to a training program in New York. I spent most of the ,t'ndid I taht dias I tsrif tA .stseretni rehto eseht fo yna deusrup training program in the foreign exchange trading room, which was a because I was basking in the success I've had with this business, but fluke because I was supposed to be trained as a loan officer and sent every day that goes by, I regret it more and more. Eventually, I can see back to Canada. myself veering back. .ecnahc yb yleritne tnemnorivne gnidart a otni llef uoy oS Veering back to drawing or writing? That is one reason why I believe anyone can do this job; I don't think ot yaw tseb eht taht thguoht syawla I .rehtien ebyam ,htob ebyaM you have to be born to do it. combine my interests in drawing and writing was films, particularly -nuh eht gnoma taht uoy erussa nac I .taht tuoba wonk t'nod I short films. I have a lot of ideas already. Nothing that would be ncevoe nmac w-ef yrev ,gnidart yrt ohw elpoep fo sdnasuoht fo sderd mercial; stuff that probably would have an end audience of three peo- remotely approach your track record. What was your job at the ple in the world. ?ksed egnahcxe ngierof Have ydoeut reovsesra m raedhet oan yd ifdilm ds?na sredro remotsuc koot I .yknulf a tsuj saw I No, I would have to take a film course just to learn how to point the tasks. 1 had to be at work at 3:30 A.M.—which was brutal for a single camera. guy living in New York—to get everything ready for the traders. I Are you thinsktienkgc iotf r egdivrion gri euhpt etrruasd iendga min dlnieau m oefh tth reosfe seoltchietrra repapswen deppilc interests? were in place. It was a glorified gofer position. erac t'nod dna od ot tnaw yeht tahw od ohw elpoep erimda yllaer I Did you have any interest in financial markets at the time? about anything else. I had a friend in college-a cwa hsuoo ivweraps y md efot emrsmilaiendie edh tt noi pu depparw llits saw I .lla ta enoN be a rock and roll star. He formed the band The Cowboy Junkies. demic life. I looked down on my M.B.A. My thoughts were, "What When he started college, he couldn't even play a guitar, and now he is happens to all the learning and academics I've done? Does it all just sold out at every concert. But I know myself. I like the comforts of get shoved away for the rest of my life?" life, and for me this business is the best way to acquire them. The job in the foreign exchange department didn't help matters at rehto eseht fo emos eusrup ylbaborp lliw I ,yllautneve ,hguohtlA all. If anything, it turned me off to trading because of all the day-to- .erutuf etaidemmi eht ni gnineppah ees I gnihtemos ton s'ti ,stseretni dah I ;snaciremA ot noitcudortni tsrif ym saw boj ehT .noitcirf yad ?loohcs msilanruoj morf detcejer erew uoy retfa deneppah tahW -dial erom era snaidanaC .efil ym lla snaidanaC yb dednuorrus neeb otn yaa rwoMf t soegb o eth dte sda.iwce tdBi Ithguoh.t I Aesuaceb back; they are more concerned about etiquette than going for the a jtegob. jugular or getting their point across. There were traders on the desk ruoy htiw od thgim uoy tahw ot thguoht yna evig uoy diD who would just scream at me all the time. Most times, I didn't even M.B.A.? know why. Maybe it was because they needed someone to take it out ssenisub eno eht saw ti esuaceb gnisitrevda otni og ot dednetni I on when their positions went bad, or maybe it was because I didn't do ytinutroppo eht tuB .edis evitaerc ym yfsitas thgim thguoht I reerac things quickly enough for them. I would go home every night upset never arose. When I graduated, the economy in Canada was terrible. because someone had shouted at me. There were only two jobs offered on campus. One was a mana?gbeo-j siht ta yats uoy did gnol woH ment trainee position with Lloyds Bank. The job appealed to me For about six months. I left because I found out through the eb dluow ti thguoht I .nodnoL ro kroY weN :noitacol eht fo esuaceb grapevine that I was about to be transferred to Toronto. At that point, .boj eht tog dna deilppa I .seitic owt esoht fo rehtie ni krow ot taerg I loved living in New York, and I had also just met my wife-to-be and

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Most books are stored in the elastic cloud where traffic is expensive. For this reason, we have a limit on daily download.