States of Fragility 2015: Meeting Post-2015 Ambitions PDF
Preview States of Fragility 2015: Meeting Post-2015 Ambitions
States of Fragility 2015 Meeting PoSt-2015 AMbitionS Contents Chapter 1. Fragility in the post-2015 framework States of Fragility 2015 Chapter 2. The changing face of fragility and its implications post-2015 Chapter 3. Taking stock of financing to address fragility Meeting PoSt-2015 AMbitionS Chapter 4. Moving from fragility to resilience post-2015 S t a t e s o f F r a g ilit y 2 0 1 5 M e e t in g P o S t -2 0 1 5 A M b it Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264227699-en. io n S This work is published on the OECD iLibrary, which gathers all OECD books, periodicals and statistical databases. Visit www.oecd-ilibrary.org for more information. The Development Assistance Committee: Enabling effective development iSbn 978-92-64-22178-9 9HSTCQE*ccbhij+ 43 2015 01 1 P States of Fragility 2015 MEETING POST-2015 AMBITIONS ThisworkispublishedundertheresponsibilityoftheSecretary-GeneraloftheOECD.The opinionsexpressedandargumentsemployedhereindonotnecessarilyreflecttheofficial viewsofOECDmembercountries. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundaries andtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea. Pleasecitethispublicationas: OECD(2015),StatesofFragility2015:MeetingPost-2015Ambitions,OECDPublishing,Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264227699-en ISBN978-92-64-22178-9(print) ISBN978-92-64-22769-9(PDF) ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityofthe relevantIsraeliauthorities.Theuse ofsuchdatabytheOECDiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraeli settlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw. Photocredits:Cover©Thijsvrijstaat|Dreamstime.com. CorrigendatoOECDpublicationsmaybefoundonlineat:www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm. ©OECD2015 Youcancopy,downloadorprintOECDcontentforyourownuse,andyoucanincludeexcerptsfromOECDpublications,databasesand multimediaproductsinyourowndocuments,presentations,blogs,websitesandteachingmaterials,providedthatsuitable acknowledgmentofthesourceandcopyrightownerisgiven.Allrequestsforpublicorcommercialuseandtranslationrightsshouldbe submittedtorights@oecd.org.Requestsforpermissiontophotocopyportionsofthismaterialforpublicorcommercialuseshallbe addresseddirectlytotheCopyrightClearanceCenter(CCC)[email protected]çaisd'exploitationdudroitdecopie (CFC)[email protected]. FOREWORD Foreword T he OECD’s Development Co-operation Directorate (DCD) has produced Fragile States reports since2005.Thesereportsexploretrendsandfinancialresourceflowsinfragileandconflict-affected states and economies. They respond to increasing concerns about the implications of fragility for international stability and development progress. Also, they recognise aid as being only one component of international support to fragile environments, and put it into context. The OECD remains one of only a handful of sources of aggregate data and analysis for fragile states and economiesasagroup.Inlinewiththenew,broaderconceptoffragilitypresentedinthis2015report, theOECD’sannualpublicationwillnowbereferredtoasStatesofFragility. Thepurposeofthisseriesistoprovidecompellingevidencethatcaninformdonorpoliciesand underpininternationaldebates.Bydoingso,thereportsseektoensurethatissuesdrivingfragility remain high on the international development agenda. Concretely, the reports aim to enable policymakersintheinternationalcommunityto:1)monitorlevelsandcompositionofresourceflows to fragile states (official development assistance [ODA] and non-ODA); 2)understand qualitative trends in the delivery of aid; 3)gain an outlook on key issues and countries of concern over the comingyears.Thepublicationalsoseekstoshedlightonadifferentkeyaspectoffragilityeveryyear. In2014,thereportincludedaspecialfocusondomesticrevenuemobilisation,akeyaspectofoneof thefivePeacebuildingandStatebuildingGoals. With regard to the data used in the current volume, this report draws on2012 official developmentassistancedata,thelatestavailabledataatthetimeofwriting.Allamountsreferring to 2012 are denoted in current 2012 USD, unless specified otherwise. For time series, constant2012USD are used. Figures reflect OECD statistics unless indicated otherwise. Further, dataonconcessionalflowsreflectthedifferentdonorinterpretationsandOECD-DACadjustments, asexplainedat:www.oecd.org/dac/stats/concessionality-note.htm. STATESOFFRAGILITY2015:MEETINGPOST-2015AMBITIONS©OECD2015 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Acknowledgements T he OECD would like to thank the New York University Center on International Cooperation (CIC) for acting as lead authors for States of Fragility2015: Meeting Post-2015 Ambitions.ItwasproducedundertheleadershipofCICAssociateDirectorSarahHearnand with her co-authors, CIC Senior Fellows BenOppenheim and DavidSteven.The authors weresupportedbyAlisonBurtandShelleyRanii.JolandaProfosandKathrynNwajiakuled the development of the report for the OECD. The report was completed under the responsibilityofAlanWhaitesandPattiO’Neill(OECD). Yasmin Ahmad, Elena Bernaldo, Valérie Gaveau, Cécile Sangaré and GiovanniMariaSemeraro (OECD) provided DAC statistics and analysis. GregoryDePaepe, Lena Diesing, Emily Esplen, Lucie Faucherre, Donata Garrasi, Siafa Hage, YannickHingorani,WillemLuijkx, MarcelRäcker, SuzanneSteensen andVanessaWyeth (OECD), JuanCarlosPereira (International Finance Corporation, IFC), MargaretKuhlow (Overseas Private Investment Corporation, OPIC) and members of the INCAF Task Team on Knowledge and Policy provided further substantive advice and feedback. Emmanuel Letouzé (Data-Pop Alliance) and Ingrid Ivins (World Bank) provided advice and assistance with data gathering and analysis. SarahCliffe, AlexEvans and BenjaminTortolani at the CIC provided comments and feedback. The report was editedby SusanSachsandproofreadbyJenniferAllain.StephanieCoïcdesignedsomeof the key graphics in this report. Anne-Lise Prigent provided editorial guidance and ElizabethDelBourgosupportedtheproductionprocess. This research was co-funded by the OECD, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development(BMZ). We also gratefully acknowledge the contribution made by the members of the referencegroupwhoprovidedvaluablereviewsofthedraftsofthisreport:FredrikEricsson (OECD), NadiaPiffaretti (WorldBank), FrederikTeufel (African Development Bank), Marcus Manuel (Overseas Development Institute, ODI), Gary Milante (Stockholm International Peace Institute, SIPRI), Habib Ur Rehman Mayar (g7+ Secretariat), LaurenceChandy(Brookings),OlafUnteroberdoerster(InternationalMonetaryFund,IMF), Henk-JanBrinkman(UNPeacebuildingSupportOffice)andMichaelJ.Warren(UNHabitat). Anyerrorsoromissionsremain,however,theauthors’responsibility. The OECD would also like to thank theWorld Bank’s Fragility,Violence and Conflict Group in Nairobi for hosting a regional consultation on the draft report’s findings in December2014 that brought together practitioners, researchers and other experts on AfricaandLatinAmerica.Thankstotheirfeedback,wewereabletorefineourfindings. 4 STATESOFFRAGILITY2015:MEETINGPOST-2015AMBITIONS©OECD2015 TABLEOFCONTENTS Table of contents Editorial................................................................... 9 Acronymsandabbreviations................................................. 11 Executivesummary......................................................... 13 Chapter1.Fragilityinthepost-2015framework................................. 17 Internationalfragilitypolicyisevolving .................................... 18 Question1:Howhavefragilestatesfaredinmeeting theMillenniumDevelopmentGoals? ...................................... 18 Question2:Howshouldfragilitybeassessedpost-2015?...................... 19 Question3:Whatobstaclesdoesfragilityposetodelivering thepost-2015agenda?................................................... 21 Question4:Whatsourcesofdevelopmentfinanceareavailable tofragilecountries? ..................................................... 22 Question5:Howisaidallocatedinfragilestatesandtoreducingfragility?...... 23 Question6:Issecurityspendingalignedandcommensuratewiththesecurity challenges,risksandvulnerabilitiesthatcontributetofragility?............... 25 Question7:Whatopportunitiesexisttoaddressfragility? .................... 25 Question8:Whatshouldinternationalsupportlooklikeinthefuture inordertobe“fitforpurpose”? ........................................... 26 Bibliography............................................................ 27 Chapter2.Thechangingfaceoffragilityanditsimplicationspost-2015 ........... 29 Question1:Howhavefragilestatesfaredinmeeting theMillenniumDevelopmentGoals? ...................................... 30 Question2:Howshouldfragilitybeassessedinthepost-2015era?............. 37 Question3:Whatobstaclesdoesfragilityposetodelivering thepost-2015agenda?................................................... 46 Notes.................................................................. 51 References ............................................................. 51 Chapter3.Takingstockoffinancingtoaddressfragility.......................... 55 Question4:Whatsourcesofdevelopmentfinanceareavailable tofragilecountries? ..................................................... 56 Question5:Howisaidallocatedinfragilestatesandtoreducingfragility?...... 66 Question6:Issecurityspendingalignedtothesecuritychallenges,risks andvulnerabilitiesthatcontributetofragility?.............................. 73 Keyrecommendations................................................... 76 Notes.................................................................. 77 References ............................................................. 77 STATESOFFRAGILITY2015:MEETINGPOST-2015AMBITIONS©OECD2015 5 TABLEOFCONTENTS Chapter4.Movingfromfragilitytoresiliencepost-2015.......................... 81 Question7:Whatopportunitiesexisttoaddressfragility? .................... 82 Question8:Whatshouldinternationalsupportlooklikeinthefuture inordertobe“fitforpurpose”? ........................................... 87 Notes.................................................................. 98 References ............................................................. 98 AnnexA.Methodologyforexploringfragilityandprojectingprogress ............. 101 AnnexB.Supplementaldataonfinancialflowstofragilestatesandeconomies .... 111 Tables 2.1. (Q.1)Strengthsandweaknessesofafragilestateslist..................... 31 2.2. (Q.1)Fragilestatesandeconomiesovertime,2007-15..................... 32 2.3. (Q.1)Availabilityofhouseholdsurveydataused togeneratePovcalNetestimates....................................... 39 2.4. (Q.2)Characteristicsofthepost-2015fragilityclusters .................... 45 2.5. (Q.3)Institutions,institutions,institutions .............................. 50 3.1. (Q.4)50%ofprivatefinanceandotherofficialflowswenttonine fragilecountriesin2012 .............................................. 57 3.2. (Q.4)The20mostaid-dependentcountriesandeconomies,2012........... 58 3.3. (Q.4)Fragilestatesandeconomiesgeneratelowerdomesticrevenue thanotherdevelopingcountries....................................... 59 3.4. (Q.4)Aidorphanssince2006 .......................................... 61 3.5. (Q.4)Fragileleastdevelopedcountriesreceivemoreaid thanmiddle-incomefragilecountries .................................. 62 3.6. (Q.5)MonitoringaidtothePeacebuildingandStatebuildingGoals.......... 72 3.7. (Q.6)ODAsecurityfinancingtofragilecountries,2012 .................... 74 4.1. (Q.8)Traditionalaidmodalitiesadaptedtofragilesituations............... 89 4.2. (Q.8)Sourcesoffinanceforfragilesituations,byincomegroup,2012........ 93 4.3. (Q.8)Leveragingnewdevelopmentfinance.............................. 94 4.4. (Q.8)Fundsleveragedbyriskguaranteesinfragile andnon-fragilestates,2009-11 ........................................ 95 A.1. Fragilestatescodingandtrendsovertime .............................. 102 A.2. Indicatorsoffragilitybasedonthepost-2015OpenWorkingGroupgoals.... 104 A.3. Dataavailabilityforthreemainexternalfinancialflowstofragilestates,2012 .. 108 B.1. Countryprogrammableaidtofragilestatesandeconomies,2003-12........ 112 B.2. Financialflowspercapitabyfragilestateoreconomy .................... 115 B.3. FinancialflowsasapercentageofGDPinfragilestatesandeconomies,2012 ... 117 B.4. Top10OECDforeigndirectinvestorsinfragilestates ..................... 120 Figures 0.1. Thelistoffragilestatesandeconomiesusedinthisreport ................ 15 1.1. Venndiagramrepresentingfragilityclustersacrossstates andeconomies...................................................... 20 1.2. Reducingpovertywilldependonsuccess inbuildingresilientinstitutions ....................................... 22 1.3. Officialdevelopmentassistancepercapita,2000-12 ...................... 23 6 STATESOFFRAGILITY2015:MEETINGPOST-2015AMBITIONS©OECD2015 TABLEOFCONTENTS 1.4. Countriesexposedtotherisksofdisastersandshocksreceivelowerlevels ofODApercapita.................................................... 24 2.1. (Q.1)ProgresstowardtheMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsamongfragile andnon-fragilestates................................................ 36 2.2. (Q.1)Infantmortalityratesbycountrygroup,2000-13..................... 37 2.3. (Q.2)Thefivedimensionsoffragility ................................... 42 2.4. (Q.2)Fragilityclustersacrossstatesandeconomies....................... 44 2.5. (Q.3)Fragilityandpovertyprojections .................................. 48 3.1. (Q.4)Externalresourceflowstofragilestates,2000-12 .................... 57 3.2. (Q.4)Peopleinfragilecontextsreceivemoreaidpercapitathanothers, 2000-12............................................................. 60 3.3. (Q.4)Fragilestatesreceivemorecountryprogrammableaid ............... 60 3.4. (Q.4)PercapitaODAisdistributedunevenlyacrossfragileenvironments.... 62 3.5. (Q.4)Top10fragilerecipientsofforeigndirectinvestmentin2012 .......... 63 3.6. (Q.5)Officialdevelopmentassistancetofragilestatesandeconomies bysector,2011-12.................................................... 67 3.7. (Q.5)Supporttolegitimatepolitics,justiceandsecurity infragilestatesislow ................................................ 68 3.8. (Q.5)Isaidalignedtofragilityrisksandvulnerabilitiesinthepost-2015era? .. 70 4.1. (Q.7)Youthpopulationandfragility .................................... 84 B.1. Aidtoselectfragilestatesandeconomies,2000-12....................... 111 B.2. Remittancespercapita,2000-12 ....................................... 113 B.3. Foreigndirectinvestmentpercapita,2000-12............................ 114 B.4. Otherofficialflowspercapita,2000-12 ................................. 115 B.5. Providersofofficialdevelopmentassistancetofragilestatesandeconomies ... 119 Follow OECD Publications on: http://twitter.com/OECD_Pubs http://www.facebook.com/OECDPublications http://www.linkedin.com/groups/OECD-Publications-4645871 http://www.youtube.com/oecdilibrary OECD Alerts http://www.oecd.org/oecddirect/ This book has... StatLinks2 A service that delivers Excel® files from the printed page! Look for the StatLinks2at the bottom of the tables or graphs in this book. 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