State Failure PDF
Preview State Failure
GlobalIssuesSeries GeneralEditor:JimWhitman This exciting new series encompasses three principal themes: the interaction of humanandnaturalsystems;cooperationandconflict;andtheenactmentofvalues. The series as a whole places an emphasis on the examination of complex systems and causal relations in political decision-making; problems of knowledge; author- ity,controlandaccountabilityinissuesofscale;andthereconciliationofconflicting valuesandcompetingclaims.Throughouttheseriestheconcentrationisonaninte- grationofexistingdisciplinestowardstheclarificationofpoliticalpossibilityaswell asimpendingcrises. Titlesinclude: BerhanykunAndemicaelandJohnMathiason ELIMINATINGWEAPONSOFMASSDESTRUCTION ProspectsforEffectiveInternationalVerification RobertBoardman GOVERNANCEOFEARTHSYSTEMS ScienceandItsUses MikeBourne ARMINGCONFLICT TheProliferationofSmallArms JohnN.ClarkeandGeoffreyR.Edwards(editors) GLOBALGOVERNANCEINTHETWENTY-FIRSTCENTURY NeilDavison “NON-LETHAL”WEAPONS NicoleDeitelhoffandKlausDieterWolf(editors) CORPORATESECURITYRESPONSIBILITY? CorporateGovernanceContributionstoPeaceandSecurityinZonesofConflict ToniErskine(editors) CANINSTITUTIONSHAVERESPONSIBILITIES? CollectiveMoralAgencyandInternationalRelations MoiraFeil GLOBALGOVERNANCEANDCORPORATERESPONSIBILITYINCONFLICTZONES AnnegretFlohr,LotharRieth,SandraSchwindenhammerandKlausDieterWolf THEROLEOFBUSINESSINGLOBALGOVERNANCE CorporationsasNorm-Entrepreneurs BethK.Greener THENEWINTERNATIONALPOLICING AlexanderKelle,KathrynNixdorffandMalcolmDando CONTROLLINGBIOCHEMICALWEAPONS AdaptingMultilateralArmsControlforthe21stCentury KelleyLee HEALTHIMPACTSOFGLOBALIZATION(editor) TowardsGlobalGovernance GLOBALIZATIONANDHEALTH AnIntroduction CatherineLu JUSTANDUNJUSTINTERVENTIONSINWORLDPOLITICS PublicandPrivate RobertL.OstergardJr.(editor) HIV,AIDSANDTHETHREATTONATIONALANDINTERNATIONALSECURITY GrahamS.Pearson THEUNSCOMSAGA ChemicalandBiologicalWeaponsNon-Proliferation THESEARCHFORIRAQ’SWEAPONSOFMASSDESTRUCTION Inspection,VerificationandNon-Proliferation NickRitchie ANUCLEARWEAPONS-FREEWORLD? Britain,TridentandtheChallengesAhead DavidScott ‘THECHINESECENTURY’? TheChallengetoGlobalOrder AndrewTaylor STATEFAILURE MarcoVerweijandMichaelThompson(editors) CLUMSYSOLUTIONSFORACOMPLEXWORLD Governance,PoliticsandPluralPerceptions MarcoVerweij CLUMSYSOLUTIONSFORAWICKEDWORLD HowtoImproveGlobalGovernance GlobalIssuesSeries SeriesStandingOrderISBN978–0–333–79483–8 (outsideNorthAmericaonly) Youcanreceivefuturetitlesinthisseriesastheyarepublishedbyplacingastanding order.Pleasecontactyourbookselleror,incaseofdifficulty,writetousattheaddress belowwithyournameandaddress,thetitleoftheseriesandtheISBNquotedabove. CustomerServicesDepartment,MacmillanDistributionLtd,Houndmills,Basingstoke, HampshireRG216XS,England State Failure Andrew Taylor DepartmentofPolitics,UniversityofSheffield,UK Palgrave macmillan ©AndrewTaylor2013 Softcoverreprintofthehardcover1stedition2013 978-0-230-24760-4 Allrightsreserved.Noreproduction,copyortransmissionofthis publicationmaybemadewithoutwrittenpermission. Noportionofthispublicationmaybereproduced,copiedortransmitted savewithwrittenpermissionorinaccordancewiththeprovisionsofthe Copyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988,orunderthetermsofanylicence permittinglimitedcopyingissuedbytheCopyrightLicensingAgency, SaffronHouse,6–10KirbyStreet,LondonEC1N8TS. Anypersonwhodoesanyunauthorizedactinrelationtothispublication maybeliabletocriminalprosecutionandcivilclaimsfordamages. Theauthorhasassertedhisrighttobeidentifiedastheauthorofthiswork inaccordancewiththeCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988. Firstpublished2013by PALGRAVEMACMILLAN PalgraveMacmillanintheUKisanimprintofMacmillanPublishersLimited, registeredinEngland,companynumber785998,ofHoundmills,Basingstoke, HampshireRG216XS. PalgraveMacmillanintheUSisadivisionofStMartin’sPressLLC, 175FifthAvenue,NewYork,NY10010. PalgraveMacmillanistheglobalacademicimprintoftheabovecompanies andhascompaniesandrepresentativesthroughouttheworld. Palgrave®andMacmillan®areregisteredtrademarksintheUnitedStates, theUnitedKingdom,Europeandothercountries. ISBN978-1-349-32017-2 ISBN978-1-137-31803-9(eBook) DOI 10.1057/9781137318039 Thisbookisprintedonpapersuitableforrecyclingandmadefromfully managedandsustainedforestsources.Logging,pulpingandmanufacturing processesareexpectedtoconformtotheenvironmentalregulationsofthe countryoforigin. AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress. Contents ListofFiguresandTables vi Acknowledgements vii 1 Introduction 1 2 Definitions 7 3 Measurement 31 4 History 59 5 Sovereignty 89 6 Violence 118 7 Environment 141 8 Governance 169 9 Consequences 197 10 Conclusions 224 Bibliography 229 Index 247 v Figures and Tables Figures 3.1 TheCASTconflictmapmodel 49 3.2 TheWGIs’sixdimensionsofgovernance 52 4.1 Apre-collapseimperialsystem:multiplenetworksof exchange 71 4.2 Post-collapse:thelossofcomplexity 72 4.3 Adynamicmodelofsocialcomplexityandcollapse 78 7.1 Climatechange,warandpopulation 144 7.2 TheSFTFmediatedenvironmentalmodel 149 8.1 Thelivelihoodsframework 180 8.2 Livelihoodsstrategies,riskandchoice 181 8.3 MultiplepoliticalordersinSomalia,1991–2007 189 Tables 2.1 Whoarethefailedstates? 16 2.2 Whoarethefailedstates?(rankedbyfrequency) 17 3.1 TheSFTF’soriginalcases,1955–1998 35 3.2 PhaseI:theglobalmodel 37 3.3 PhaseII:globalmodelcoefficients 39 3.4 PhaseIII:globalmodelresults 40 3.5 PhaseII:SSAmodelcoefficients 41 3.6 PhaseIII:SSAmodelcoefficients 43 3.7 PhasesI–III:classificationaccuracy(percent) 44 3.8 TheCASTindicatorsandFSI2011 50 3.9 TheWGI:governmenteffectivenessinHaiti 54 7.1 TheSFTFenvironmentalmodelcoefficients 150 7.2 HIVandstatefailure:fragility,vulnerabilityandirresilience 164 7.3 RelationshipbetweenHIV/AIDSandstatefailure 166 9.1 RAND’shierarchyofpriorities 211 9.2 Thecostsofnationbuilding 212 9.3 DefenseScienceBoardestimatesoftroopsneeded 221 vi Acknowledgements IwouldliketothankJimWhitman,theserieseditor,forcommissioningthis bookandforhissuperhumanforbearancewhensuccessivedeadlinesforthe submission of the manuscript passed. Thanks are due to Amanda McGrath atPalgraveMacmillanandCherlineDanielatIntegraSoftwareServiceswho efficiently oversaw the transition from manuscript to book. My colleagues attheUniversityofSheffieldprovidedacongenialintellectualenvironment andIwouldliketoacknowledgethesemester’sstudyleaveapprovedbythe DepartmentofPoliticsandtheUniversityofSheffieldduringwhichthefirst draftofthisbookwaswritten.Thebookdrawsonawiderangeofacademic materialandtheUniversitylibrarywascrucialinfacilitatingtheresearchfor thebook. Iwouldliketothankthefollowingforpermissiontoreproducecopyright material:theFundforPeace(Figure3.1),theNationalAcademyofSciences (Figure 7.1), the Department for International Development (Figure 8.1), JohnWiley&Sons(Figure8.3)andtheRANDCorporation(Table9.2). Iwouldliketothankmywife,Georgina,forhersupport.Shehelpedinthe writingofthisbookinmorewaysthanshecaneverknow.Finally,Iwould like to dedicate this book to our daughter, Kay, in the hope that she never hastoconfrontanysituationevenvaguelyresemblingstatefailure. AndrewTaylor, Honley,April2013 vii 1 Introduction Duringthe1990stheconceptandphenomenonofthefailedstateachieved considerable influence amongst journalists, academics and policy makers and their advisers. There is no agreed definition but the following is typi- cal: a failed state is characterised by the ‘collapse of central government to impose order, resulting in loss of physical control of territory, and/or the monopolyoverthelegitimateuseofforce.Crucially,itcannolongerrepro- duce the conditions for its own existence’ (GSDRC 2012). The intellectual and policy impact of state failure has been considerable and remains influ- ential in new guises (e.g. the fragile state); its legacy can be seen in many partsofworld.Developedasanexplanationforpost-ColdWarpoliticsand thenewworld(dis)order,thefailedstatebecameakeydiscourseinthecon- ductofinternationalpolitics.Thiswasparticularlysoafterthe9/11attacks ontheUS: The events of September 11, 2001, taught us that weak states, like Afghanistan,canposeasgreatadangertoournationalinterestsasstrong states.Povertydoesnotmakepoorpeopleintoterroristsandmurders.Yet poverty, weak institutions, and corruption can make weak states unable toresistterroristnetworksanddrugcartelswithintheirborders. (Bush2002,iv) This, coming from a president who, as a candidate in the 2000 election, set his face against the idea that the US should engage in nation build- ing demonstrates the scale of the policy shift. In the second presidential debateon 11October 2000 with Al Gore,Bush notedthatUS involvement in Somalia ‘Started off as a humanitarian mission then it changed into a nation-buildingmission,andthat’swherethemissionwentwrong...Idon’t thinkourtroopsoughttobeusedforwhat’scallednationbuilding’(http:// www.cbsnews.com/2100-250_162-240442.html). However, so great was the threat represented by these states perceived to be that nation building was justified and some advocated the revival of trusteeship and even of formal (orinformal)Americanempire. 1 2 StateFailure Thecontentionofthisbookisthatstatefailureissoflawedasaconceptas tobeunusableinacademicanalysisanddeeplydangerousinpolicymaking. Theideaofafailedstatenecessitatesaconditionof‘notfailed’,theexemplar ofwhichisanassociationclaimingamonopolyoflegitimateviolencewithin adefinedterritoryandinteractingwithlikeassociationsinaninternational system.Increasinglythesestatesare,butneednotbe,market-liberaldemoc- racies.Tograsptheemergenceandevolutionofstatefailure,itisimportant torememberthat,historically,failureledtostatedeatheitherbyabsorption orbyfragmentationintonewentities,afatethatisnowcomparativelyrare butnotunknown.Statesarepreservedbymaterialandideationalinfluences combined in the idea of sovereignty. States can remain juridically extant despite internal disintegration. Failure is best understood as marked loss of complexity(whattriggersthelossvaries)whoseeffectsmanifestthemselves as territorial fragmentation and violence up to, and including, genocide. However, the result is not a Hobbesian state of nature. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, and conditions of failure generate political orders that mightbeunappealingintheextremebutareordersnonetheless,possessing adistinctrationality.Failureisalwaysinsomeone’sinterest. AnatolLieven,anotedPakistanspecialist,suggested: One of the minor curses of writing on world affairs over the past few yearshasbeentheproliferatinguseoftheterm‘failedstate’.Coinedorig- inally for genuinely failed and failing states in sub-Saharan Africa, this termhassincebeenthrownaroundwithwildabandontodescribeagreat range of states around the world, pretty much in accordance with the writer’sprejudicesortheneedofhisorherpublicationforasensational headline. (2011,19–20) Lieven captures the stretching and travelling to which state failure was subjected and hints at three assumptions underpinning state failure: first, that failure can be clearly specified theoretically, accurately measured, and appropriate remedies identified and implemented; second, that state fail- ure is essentially an African phenomenon; and finally, that it is a recent phenomenon.Thisbookexploresthesethreeassumptions.Bytakingaper- spective broader than the literature’s predominant focus that failed state equalssecuritythreat,itexplorestheoriginsandevolutionoftheconceptas well as its intellectual and methodological underpinnings, and it considers some of the concept’s consequences for contemporary politics. It eschews reliance on specific cases for two reasons: first, the list of failed states often changesrapidlyeventhoughthe‘innercore’remainsfairlystable;andsec- ond, the relatively few cases cover a range of contexts and experiences. Whilstdrawingextensivelyoncases,thebookisconcernedwiththeconcept andprocessofstatefailure.
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