Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century PDF
Preview Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century
SPIN DICTATORS SPIN DICTATORS THE CHANGING FACE OF TYRANNY IN THE 21ST CENTURY SERGEI GURIEV AND DANIEL TREISMAN Prince ton University Press Prince ton and Oxford Copyright © 2022 by Prince ton University Press Prince ton University Press is committed to the protection of copyright and the intellectual property our authors entrust to us. Copyright promotes the pro gress and integrity of knowledge. Thank you for supporting f ree speech and the global exchange of ideas by purchasing an authorized edition of this book. If you wish to reproduce or distribute any part of it in any form, please obtain permission. Requests for permission to reproduce material from this work should be sent to permissions@press . princeton . edu. Published by Prince ton University Press 41 William Street, Prince ton, New Jersey 08540 99 Banbury Road, Oxford OX2 6JX press . princeton . edu All Rights Reserved ISBN 978-0-691- 21141-1 ISBN (e- book) 978-0-691-22446-6 British Library Cataloging- in- Publication Data is available Editorial: Bridget Flannery- McCoy and Alena Chekanov Production Editorial: Jenny Wolkowicki Jacket design: Karl Spurzem Production: Erin Suydam Publicity: Kate Hensley and Kathryn Stevens Jacket images: Shutterstock This book has been composed in Arno Pro Printed on acid- free paper. ∞ Printed in the United States of Amer i ca 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 To Katia, Sasha, and Andrei —S G To Susi, Alex, and Lara —D T CONTENTS Preface ix INTRODUCTION 1 Chapter 1 Fear and Spin 3 PART I: HOW IT’S DONE 31 Chapter 2 Discipline, but Don’t Punish 33 Chapter 3 Postmodern Propaganda 62 Chapter 4 Sensible Censorship 86 Chapter 5 Democracy for Dictators 114 Chapter 6 Global Pillage 136 PART II: WHY IT’S HAPPENING AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT 167 Chapter 7 The Modernization Cocktail 169 Chapter 8 The Future of Spin 193 Notes 221 References 269 Index 327 vii PREFACE Early in the twenty- first century, global politics hit a major milestone. For the first time, the number of democracies in the world surged past the tally of authoritarian states. As this seismic “third wave” crested, experts identified 98 countries with free government, compared to 80 still controlled by dictators.1 The optimism was infectious. New infor- mation technologies, globalization, and economic development seemed to be calling “time’s up” on strongman rule. As countries modernized, tyranny was becoming obsolete. The cele brations did not last long. In fact, they hardly got started. Within a few years, the advance of freedom had petered out, yielding what some quickly termed a “demo cratic recession.” A dramatic finan- cial crisis, born in the United States, sent the global economy crashing, undercutting faith in Western governance. By 2019, the number of de- mocracies had fallen to 87 while that of dictatorships was back up to 92. In the West, liberalism was proving l ittle match for popu lism, while in the East, all eyes were turned to China’s meteoric rise. The millennial exuberance gave way to a sense of gloom. Today’s po liti cal pessimism is a bit overdone. By most mea sures, global democracy remains not far below its all-t ime high. But the dark mood points to a genuine puzzle. Even if dictatorships are not taking over, the question is how they can survive at all—a nd even prosper—in an ultramodern world. Why, a fter all the brutal manias of the twentieth century— from fascism to communism— have been discredited, do we still see new autocracies rising from the ashes? And what to make of the strongmen who are embracing tools of modernity, using Western tech- nologies to challenge Western ways of life? ix
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