Southeast Asian economic outlook 2010.

206 Pages·2010·7.047 MB·English

by  OECD

Southeast Asian
Economic Outlook
2010
CENTRE DE DEVELOPMENT
DÉVELOPPEMENT CENTRE

Southeast Asian
Economic Outlook 2010
The opinions expressed and arguments employed in this publication do not necessarily
reflect those of the OECD, its Development Centre or of the governments of their member
countries.
Please cite this publication as:
OECD (2010), Southeast Asian Economic Outlook 2010, OECD Publishing.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264096004-en
ISBN 978-92-64-09599-1 (print)
ISBN 978-92-64-09600-4 (PDF)
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© OECD 2010
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dev
3
development centre
centre
The Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development was
established by decision of the OECD Council on 23 October 1962 and comprises 25 member countries
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For an overview of the Centre’s activities, please see www.oecd.org/dev.
SOUTHEAST ASIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010 © OECD 2010

fore
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foreword
word
The global financial crisis was a litmus test for Southeast Asia’s economic dynamism. The region has
emerged strongly from the test, in large part as a result of the considerable improvements in the
macroeconomic and financial policies carried out over the past decade. While this is encouraging,
many challenges remain, in particular achieving more balanced growth in the future.
Rebalancing growth is not just a matter of shifting from exports to domestic demand and making the
region’s growth pattern less dependent on import demand by OECD economies. It involves reducing
the region’s excessive export dependence on a narrow range of manufactured products, such as
electronic parts and components, and moving up the technological ladder in the global value chain.
This rebalancing will require reallocating public resources to meet the growing need for economic and
social infrastructure, which is essential to allow the region to exploit untapped growth opportunities.
This includes speeding up the regional integration process and expanding transport networks within
and across countries. Rebalancing does not mean reverting the economic openness and integration
into the global economy achieved so far. It implies making greater use of trade and investment
opportunities arising from deeper economic integration in Asia and the Pacific.
This first edition of the Southeast Asian Economic Outlook suggests that the rebalancing process
is already underway. Real GDP growth in six Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam) is projected to reach 6.0% per year on average in
2011-15, which is similar to the pre-crisis level. This time, however, the region’s economic growth
is likely to rely more on domestic consumption and investment.
Southeast Asia is a region of strategic importance to the OECD. In May 2007, the OECD Ministerial
Council adopted a resolution to strengthen the Organisation’s relations with the region under its
Enhanced Engagement Strategy. In order to contribute to this initiative, in April 2009, the OECD
Development Centre launched its new economic outlook project for the region. This Outlook is not
just a report. It is a tool to facilitate informed dialogue between OECD and Southeast Asian countries.
I hope it will also help the dialogue among Southeast Asian countries themselves around those policy
areas that are critical for the region’s development.
November 2010
Angel Gurría
OECD Secretary-General
SOUTHEAST ASIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010 © OECD 2010

acknow
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acknowledgements
ledgements
The Southeast Asian Economic Outlook (SAEO) 2010 was prepared by the OECD Development Centre’s
Southeast Asia Unit of the Asia-Pacific Desk, headed by Kensuke Tanaka, Project Manager, and under
the supervision of Kiichiro Fukasaku, Head of Division, Regional Desks. Mario Pezzini, Director of the
OECD Development Centre, provided useful advice and overall guidance. The volume was drafted by
a team composed of Kiichiro Fukasaku, Pang Eng Fong, Arianto A. Patunru, Charles Pigott, Masakazu
Someya, Kensuke Tanaka and Naoyuki Yoshino. Vararat Atisophon provided statistical assistance
and compiled the statistical annex.
Tai Xiao Hui, Suk Hyun, Bo Meng, Masaki Nakahigashi, Lucas Neo and Norihiko Yamano also provided
significant inputs in preparing the publication. Charles Pigott provided extensive editorial advice on
the draft.
The early drafts were presented to the SAEO seminar at the OECD Development Centre on 5 July 2010.
The authors are grateful to Annabelle Mourougane, Kart van Dender and other seminar participants
for their comments and suggestions.
A significant number of government and central bank officials and experts in several Southeast Asian
countries were involved in successive consultations during OECD Development Centre missions,
seminars and meetings. Particular thanks go to Armida S. Alisjahbana, Allauddin Bin Anuar, Doan
Hoai Anh, Sundaran Annamalai, Suwannee Arunsawadiwong, Myrna Clara B. Asuncion, Juda Agung,
Gil S. Beltran, Wichayayuth Boonchit, David W. Carbon, Elaine Chan, Chua Boon Loy, Chua Teng
Hoe, Elsya Chani, Chulamanee Chartsuwan, Cao Manh Cuong, Dao Thuy Hang, Doan Phuong Lan,
Bibiana Lee, Norhana Endut, MD. Farishzanismal, Pandu Rizky Fauzi, Diwa C. Guinigundo, Thurgha
Govindasmy, Junanto Herdiawan, Idwan Suhardi Hakim, Hoanh Hai, Khuong Thanh Ha, Mohamad
Ikhsan, Shruthi Jayaram, Ampon Kittiampon, Syahrial Loetan, Andie Megantara, Marzunisham bin
Omar, Mohd Esa Abd Manaf, Ravi Muthayah, Mulia P. Nasution, Pilanya Niyomthai, Nik Azman Nik
Abdul Majid, Nik Mohd Shariffudin Nik Hassan, Mahendra Siregar, Agus Martowardojo, Nurulashikin
Suid, Allen Ng, Nguyen Thi Thu Hien, Kennedy Mayoung Onon, Nadsirah Osman, Pradit Phataraprasit,
Bambang Prijambodo, Sjamsu Rahardja, Chadin Rochananonda, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, Goh Chin
Siong, Salmet Seno Adji Thammanoon Sodsrichai, Margarita R. Songco, Arkhom Termpittayapaisith,
Charmeida Tjokrosuwarno, Ma. Cyd N. Tuano-amador, Soraphol Tulayasathien, Porametee Vimolsiri,
Perry Warjiyo, Worawut Wesaratchakit, Anugrah E. Yogyantoro, Saharudin Yusoff, Doddy Zulverdi
and Zurliza Ab Ghani.
The team responsible for this report would like to acknowledge the comments received from several
research institutes in Southeast Asia, in particular the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and
East Asia (ERIA), Danareksa, Indonesia; the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research; the Thailand
Development Research Institute Foundation (TDRI); the Central Institute for Economic Management
(CEIM) and the Development Strategy Institute, Viet Nam. Useful comments from Chinese experts,
in particular Da Yuan, Xin Liu and Qing Zhu are also greatly appreciated.
This publication would not have been completed without continuous communication with the ASEAN
Secretariat, in particular Sundram Pushpanathan, Aladdin D. Rillo and Ruhimat Soerakoesomemah.
The co-operation between the OECD Development Centre and the ASEAN Secretariat will be enhanced
further in the future volumes of the SAEO. The Outlook also benefited from discussions with experts
SOUTHEAST ASIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010 © OECD 2010
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
8 at the Asian Development Bank and the Asian Development Bank Institute, in particular Giovanni
Capannelli, Thiam Hee Ng, Masahiro Kawai, Arief Ramayandi, Norio Usui and Joseph Ernest Zveglich,
Jr. Discussions with A.G. Karunasena, Reza Yamora Siregar and Kanaengnid Tantigate-Quah at the
Southeast Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Traning Centre were very useful.
Support from OECD Delegations and Embassies of ASEAN countries in Paris, in particular Sharrina
Abdullah, Yasmin Ali, Des Alwi, Laurence Argimon-Pistre, Astana Abdul Aziz, Takashi Ariyoshi, Chanchai
Charanvatnakit, Stefan Flückiger, Mohiuddin Ghazali, Tae-Shin Kwon, Teiji Hayashi, Ai Imai, Motoyuki
Ishize, Christopher Langman, La Viet Ha, Taeho Lee, Song-Jun Ohm, Kamrob Palawatwichai, Rosalita
Prospero and Hyunsoo Yun, is greatfully acknowledged.
The Asian Business Cycle Indicators and the Medium-Term Projection Framework for Growth and
Development used in this publication were developed by a team managed by Kensuke Tanaka and
composed of Gabor Fulop, Yasuo Hirose and Masakazu Someya. Useful suggestions were received
from Gyorgy Gyomai, Jiemin Guo, Makoto Minegishi, Masahiro Tsutsumi and Philip Bagnioli at the
initial stage of the construction of the indicators and the projection framework. The team also thanks
Luiz De Mello and Margit Molnar for their useful comments.
Special thanks also go to Stéphanie Char, Colm Foy, Sandra Lloyd, Ji-Yeun Rim and Anna Tchoub for
their useful assistance and support. Magali Geney, Vanda Legrandgérard, Elizabeth Nash and Jane
Marshall turned the manuscript into the publication. Michèle Girard, Librarian, provided substantial
bibliographical help. Magali Geney designed the cover page of the publication. Élodie Masson, media
and press relations, provided excellent support.
Last but not least, the OECD Development Centre would like to acknowledge gratefully the financial
support received from the Goverments of Indonesia, Japan, Korea and Switzerland as well as the
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), Jakarta.
SOUTHEAST ASIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010 © OECD 2010