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Kanya Kusano   Editor Solar-Terrestrial Environmental Prediction Solar-Terrestrial Environmental Prediction Kanya Kusano Editor Solar-Terrestrial Environmental Prediction Editor KanyaKusano InstituteforSpace-EarthEnvironmental Research NagoyaUniversity Nagoya,Aichi,Japan ISBN978-981-19-7764-0 ISBN978-981-19-7765-7 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7765-7 TranslationfromtheJapaneselanguageedition:“TaiyoChikyuKenKankyoYosokuOpenTextbook”by Kanya Kusano, © Authors 2021. Published by Nagoya University Academic Institutional Repository “NAGOYARepository”.AllRightsReserved. ©TheEditor(s)(ifapplicable)andTheAuthor(s),underexclusivelicensetoSpringerNatureSingapore PteLtd.2023 Thetranslationwasdonewiththehelpofartificialintelligence(machinetranslationbytheserviceDeepL. com).Asubsequenthumanrevisionwasdoneprimarilyintermsofcontent. Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsaresolelyandexclusivelylicensedbythePublisher,whether thewholeorpartofthematerialisconcerned,specificallytherightsofreprinting,reuseofillustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc.inthispublication doesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromtherelevant protectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. The publisher, the authors, and the editorsare safeto assume that the adviceand informationin this bookarebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernortheauthorsor theeditorsgiveawarranty,expressedorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinorforany errorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade.Thepublisherremainsneutralwithregardtojurisdictional claimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations. ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSingaporePteLtd. The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore Preface With the development of civilization and technology, the environment of human society is currently expanding even into space. Satellites play important roles in communication, safe aircraft operations, and weather and disaster monitoring. Satellite-based positioning and satellite broadcasting are presently indispensable infrastructures in our daily lives. Concurrently, various space probes have reached manyplanetsandallpartsofthesolarsystem.Voyager1andVoyager2,launchedin 1977, have already escaped from the heliosphere and are navigating in interstellar space. Hayabusa and Hayabusa 2 have even enabled bringing samples from extra- terrestrial bodies to the Earth. Astronauts stay on the International Space Station continually,anditisexpectedthatordinarypeoplewillsoonbeabletogotospace. ThereareplansfornewmannedmissionstothemoonandMars.Itcanbestatedthat spaceisnowtherealmofhumanactivity. However, solar activity has significant impacts on the space around the Earth (geospace) and interplanetary space. The numerous energetic particles emitted by solar flares pose serious threats to the health of astronauts. In addition, solar flares andcoronal mass ejections, whichareexplosivephenomenaoccurringon theSun, significantlydisrupttheelectromagneticenvironmentnotonlyinthespacebutalso ontheground,andtheymayposepotentialriskstoelectricpower,communication, and aviation. In addition, many data suggest that long-term changes in sunspot activity, which can influence the space environment, also affect the weather and climateoftheEarth.Therefore,thepredictionof“spaceweather,”i.e.,thevariations in solar activity and the space environment, is crucial for modern civilization to continuetodevelopandexpandintospace. This textbook was edited for young researchers and graduate students based on the Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP) in Japan, which wassupportedbytheMinistryofEducation,Culture,Sports,ScienceandTechnol- ogyofJapan. ThePSTEPconsisted offour plannedresearchgroups (A01:Predic- tion System Group, A02: Solar Storm Group, A03: Terrestrial Electromagnetism v vi Preface Group, and A04: Solar Cycle Activity Group) and many research units. For more informationaboutthePSTEPanditsresearchresults,pleaserefertoitswebsite. Thistextbookisdividedintofourpartscorrespondingtotheplannedresearches ofthePSTEP(PartI:LinkagebetweenSpaceWeatherandSociety,PartII:Magne- tosphere of Earth and Space Weather Prediction, Part III: Solar Storms and Space Weather Prediction, and Part IV: Prediction of Solar Cycle Activity and Climate Impacts).Becauseeachchaptercoversthebasicsandapplicationsofeacharea,you cangainabroadunderstandingofthesubjectthroughoutthebook.Inaddition,you canselectandreadthetopicsthatyouareinterestedin. The planning of this textbook was realized on the basis of the PSTEP Summer School at Rikubetsu, 2017, which was conducted in Rikubetsu, Hokkaido, Japan. ThecontentsofthesummerschoolwerepublishedasaJapaneseopentextbookby Nagoya University Repository in 2021. This textbook has been newly edited by translatingitintoEnglishandaddingthelatestresearchresults. Finally,Iwouldliketoexpressmysinceregratitudetoallauthorswhocollabo- ratedonthisprojectandwrotethedifferentchaptersdespitetheirbusyschedules.I would also like to thank Ms. Saori Haga for accurately carrying out the enormous amount of editing work and Ms. Motoko Kunieda, Ms. Akie Enomoto, and other membersoftheSecretarialOfficeoftheIntegratedStudiesDivisionoftheInstitute for Space and Earth Environment Studies at Nagoya University. In addition, I acknowledge Mr. Akiyuki Tokuno and his coworkers from Springer for their continuous support and all of those who cooperated in the planning of the PSTEP andthistextbook. Nagoya,Aichi,Japan KanyaKusano Contents PartI RelationBetweenSpaceWeatherandSociety 1 SocialImpactsofSpaceWeather. . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . . .. 3 MamoruIshii 2 ImpactofSpaceWeatheronVariousFields. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 YûkiKubo,SusumuSaito,TakuyaTsugawa,YusukeEbihara, TsutomuNagatsuma,TatsuhikoSato,andHidekatsuJin 2.1 TelecommunicationandSatelliteNavigation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2.1.1 StructureofIonosphere. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 2.1.2 CommunicationandBroadcasting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 2.1.3 Positioning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 2.2 ElectricPower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.2.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.2.2 ImpactsofGIConHigh-VoltageTransmission Network. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 2.2.3 PreventionofHazardsDuetoGIC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 2.2.4 CausesofGIC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 2.2.5 ForecastofGIC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 2.2.6 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 2.3 Satellites. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 2.3.1 SurfaceCharging. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 2.3.2 InternalCharging. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 2.3.3 Single-EventEffects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 2.3.4 TotalDoseEffect/CumulativeDoseEffect. . . . . . . . . . 47 2.3.5 Others(MaterialDegradationandPropertyChanges inSpaceEnvironment). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 2.4 ExposuretoCosmicRadiation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 2.4.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 2.4.2 RegulationforAircrewExposure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 2.4.3 MechanismofAircrewExposure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 52 vii viii Contents 2.4.4 AircrewDoseAssessmentModels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 2.4.5 ExamplesofAircrewDoseRatesEstimatedby WASAVIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 2.4.6 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 2.5 AtmosphericDrag. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 2.5.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 2.5.2 Basis1:OrbitsofObjectsOrbitingtheEarth. . . . . . . . 60 2.5.3 Basis2:ChangeinTrajectoryDuetoExternalForce. . 62 2.5.4 FactorsThatDetermineMagnitudeofAtmospheric Drag. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 2.5.5 VariationinThermosphericAtmosphericDensity anditsContributiontoAtmosphericDrag. . . . . . . . . . 67 2.5.6 InfluenceofAtmosphericDragonSpaceUtilization. . . 68 2.5.7 Conclusion:PredictionModelsforThermospheric Variability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 3 SevereSpaceWeatherDisasters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 MamoruIshii 3.1 ScaleandOccurrenceRateofSpaceWeatherDisasters. . . . . . . 81 3.2 ActionsofNationalandInternationalOrganizationsforSpace WeatherDisasters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 3.2.1 NationalActivities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 3.2.2 ActivitiesofInternationalOrganizations. . . . . . . . . . . 85 3.3 SocialImpactsofSpaceWeatherPhenomena. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 PartII GeospaceandSpaceWeatherForecast 4 IntroductionofSpaceWeatherResearchonMagnetosphere andIonosphereoftheEarth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 KazuoShiokawa 4.1 StructuresofandVariationsinMagnetosphereandIonosphere oftheEarth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 4.2 MeasurementofMagnetosphereandIonosphereoftheEarth. . . 105 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 5 SpaceRadiation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 YoshizumiMiyoshi,YutoKatoh,ShinjiSaito,TakefumiMitani, andTakeshiTakashima 5.1 TimeVariationsinRadiationBelts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 5.1.1 AverageVariationsinRadiationBeltElectrons. . . . .. 116 5.2 SolarWind–RadiationBeltCoupling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 5.2.1 SolarWindParameterDependence. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 5.2.2 SolarWindStructureDependence. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 5.3 AccelerationMechanisms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 Contents ix 5.3.1 AdiabaticAccelerationProcess. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 5.3.2 NonadiabaticAccelerationProcess. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 5.4 LossMechanisms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 5.4.1 MagnetopauseBoundaryLoss. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 5.4.2 LossDuetoWave–ParticleInteractions. . . . . . . . . . . . 128 5.5 ForecastofRadiationBeltElectrons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 6 GeomagneticVariabilityandGIC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 YusukeEbihara,SatokoNakamura,Tada-noriGoto,ShinichiWatari, andTakashiKikuchi 6.1 MechanismofGICGeneration.. . . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. 139 6.2 GICObservations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 6.3 MagnetosphericIonosphericCurrentSystemsandGeomagnetic FieldFluctuations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 6.3.1 ConvectionElectricField,R1FAC,andShielding ElectricField,R2FAC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 6.3.2 QuasiperiodicDP2MagneticFieldFluctuationsand Substorms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 6.3.3 StormMainPhaseElectricFieldandDP2Currents. . . 162 6.3.4 WavePhenomenaintheMagnetosphere. . . . . . . . . . . 163 6.3.5 GeomagneticallyInducedCurrents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 6.3.6 MechanismofCurrentFlowfromMagnetosphere toLow-LatitudeandEquatorialIonosphere. . . . . . . . . 167 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 7 IonosphericVariability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 YuichiOtsuka,HidekatsuJin,HiroyukiShinagawa, KeisukeHosokawa,andTakuoTsuda 7.1 PropagationofRadioWavesinIonosphere. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 7.1.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 7.1.2 ReflectionandRefractionofRadioWaves inIonosphere. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178 7.1.3 PropagationDelayofRadioWavesinIonosphere. . .. 179 7.1.4 AbsorptionofRadioWavesinIonosphere. . . . . . . . . . 180 7.1.5 Scintillation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 7.2 IonosphericChangesCausedbySolarFlares. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 7.2.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 7.2.2 ExamplesofSolarRadiationVariations(X9.3Flare inSeptember2017). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 7.2.3 AbsorptionofSolarRadiationbyUpperAtmosphere andChangeinIonizationRate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 7.2.4 IonosphericVariability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186 7.2.5 VariationsinThermosphere. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 7.2.6 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188 x Contents 7.3 IonosphericVariationsAssociatedwithGeomagneticStorms. . . 189 7.3.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 7.3.2 IonosphericStorms. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . 189 7.3.3 EvaluationofMagnitudesofIonosphericStorms. . . .. 192 7.3.4 Large-ScaleTravelingIonosphericDisturbances. . . . . . 193 7.3.5 ThermosphericDisturbancesandAtmosphericDrag. . . 193 7.3.6 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 7.4 IonosphericVariationsinPolarRegions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196 7.4.1 RecentObservationsofScintillationAssociatedwith Aurora. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . 196 7.4.2 MechanismofPolarCapPatchGenerationandits RelationtoTOI/SED. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196 7.4.3 IonosphericIrregularStructureandScintillation AssociatedwithPolarCapPatches. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198 7.4.4 PolarCapAbsorption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 7.5 Medium-ScalePropagatingIonosphericDisturbances. . . . . . . . 202 7.5.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202 7.5.2 MSTIDsDuringDaytime. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 7.5.3 MSTIDsDuringNighttime. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206 7.6 PlasmaBubbles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208 7.6.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208 7.6.2 Rayleigh–TaylorInstability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 7.6.3 CharacteristicsofPlasmaBubbleGeneration. . . . . . . . 211 7.6.4 IncreaseinEastwardElectricFieldatSunset. . . . . . . . 212 7.6.5 PredictionofPlasmaBubbleOccurrence byNumericalModel. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . 213 7.7 SporadicELayers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 7.7.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 7.7.2 EffectsonRadioWavePropagation. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. 214 7.7.3 CharacteristicsandObservationsofesLayers. . . . . .. 215 7.7.4 GenerationMechanism:WindShearTheory. . . . . . .. 217 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219 PartIII SolarStormsandSpaceWeatherForecast 8 StructureofSolarAtmosphereandMagneticPhenomena. . . . . .. 225 KiyoshiIchimoto,ToshifumiShimizu,KazumasaIwai, andHisayoshiYurimoto 8.1 SolarConstantandOverallStructureofSolarAtmosphere. . . . . 225 8.2 Photosphere:InteractionofConvectionandMagneticFields. . . 227 8.3 Chromosphere:FromGas-DominatedtoMagneticField- Dominated. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 8.4 CoronaandSolarWind:HotAtmosphereDominatedby MagneticFields. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 8.5 SolarWindsandHeliosphere. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239

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