Solar Energy Perspectives

234 Pages·2011·7.151 MB·English

by  OECD

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974.
Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member
countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative
research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member
countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among
its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports.
The Agency’s aims include the following objectives:
n Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular,
through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions.
n Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection
in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute
to climate change.
n Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of
energy data.
n Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies
and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy
efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies.
n Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and
dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international
organisations and other stakeholders.
IEA member countries:
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea (Republic of)
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
© OECD/IEA, 2011 Spain
International Energy Agency Sweden
9 rue de la Fédération Switzerland
75739 Paris Cedex 15, France Turkey
www.iea.org United Kingdom
United States
Please note that this publication
is subject to specific restrictions
The European Commission
that limit its use and distribution.
The terms and conditions are available also participates in
online at www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp the work of the IEA.
“The sun will be the fuel of the future”
Anonymous, 1876, Popular Science
Foreword
Foreword
Solar energy technologies have witnessed false starts, such as the early boom of solar water
heaters in California a century ago, and the renewed interest that followed the first and second
oil shocks. Will they now fulfil their promise to deliver affordable, abundant, inexhaustible
and clean energy? Which solar technologies are really close to competitiveness, in which
circumstances and for which uses? What kind of policy support do they require and for how
long? What are the costs, who will bear them? What are the benefits, and who will reap them?
The rapid evolution of these technologies makes policy answers to those questions unusually
difficult. Up to now, only a limited number of countries have been supporting most of the
effort to drive solar energy technologies to competitiveness. Concerns about costs have also
sometimes led to abrupt policy revisions. Policies may lapse or lose momentum just a few
years before they would have succeeded.
This timely publication is the first in-depth IEA technology study focusing on renewable
technologies. It offers relevant information, accurate data and sound analyses to policy
makers, industry stakeholders, and the wider public. It builds upon the IEA Energy Technology
Perspectives in considering end-use sectors and the ever-growing role of electricity. It also
builds on many IEA Technology Roadmaps in elaborating an integrated approach to various
solar energy technologies. It shows how they could combine to respond to our energy needs
in providing electricity, heat and fuels.
This publication also investigates ways to make support policies more effective and cost-
effective. It suggests that comprehensive and fine-tuned policies supporting a large portfolio of
solar energy technologies could be extended to most sunny regions of the world, where most of
the growth of population and economy is taking place. If this were the case, solar energy could
well become a competitive energy source in many applications within the next twenty years.
In the penultimate chapter, this publication departs from usual IEA work and complements
our least-cost modelling exercises by depicting a world in which solar energy reaches its very
fullest potential by the second part of this century. A number of assumptions are made to see
what might be possible in terms of solar deployment, while keeping affordability in sight.
Under these assumptions, solar energy has immense potential and could emerge as a major
source of energy, in particular if energy-related carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced to
quite low levels and if other low-carbon technology options cannot deliver on large scale.
While this outcome is hypothetical, it does suggest that current efforts are warranted to enrich
the portfolio of clean and sustainable energy options for the future.
Maria van der Hoeven
Executive Director
This publication has been produced under the authority of the Executive Director of the
International Energy Agency. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views or 1
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Acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
This publication was written by Cédric Philibert from the Renewable Energy Division at the
International Energy Agency, with the constant support and supervision of Dr. Paolo Frankl,
Head of the Division. Ambassador Richard Jones, Deputy Executive Director, Didier Houssin,
Director of the Energy Markets and Security, and Rebecca Gaghen, Head of the
Communication and Information Office, provided guidance and inputs. Marilyn Smith,
Editor-in-Chief, and Peter Chambers edited the book. Muriel Custodio and her team turned
the manuscript into this book. Bertrand Sadin designed all graphics and Corinne Hayworth
designed the cover.
Milou Beerepoot, Adam Brown, Hugo Chandler, Anselm Eisentraut, Carlos Gasco, Dagmar
Grazyck, Lew Fulton, Quentin Marchais, Ada Marmion, Simon Mueller, Zuzana Dobrotkova,
Uwe Remme, Christopher Segar, Jonathan Sinton, Michael Taylor, Peter Taylor, Laszlo Varro
and Markus Wrake – all IEA colleagues – provided comments and insights. Quentin Marchais
also helped gathering figures and photographs.
The author would like to thank them all, as well as Muriel Alaphilippe, Denis Bonnelle,
Christian Breyer, Jenny Chase, Luis Crespo Rodrigez, Patrick Criqui, Michael Epstein, Denis
Eudeline, Charles Forsberg, Henner Gladen, Heike Hoedt, Hiroshi Kaneko, Andreas Indinger,
François Lempérière, Christian Lenôtre, Philippe Malbranche, Anton Meier, David Mills,
Stefan Nowak, Christoph Richter, Steven Silvers, Jean-Pierre Traisnel, Werner Weiss, Zhifeng
Weng and several Delegates to the IEA, who gave inputs and comments, and the many others
who helped provide the illustrations or authorise their reproduction. Frédéric Siros deserves
special thanks for his thorough review of the whole manuscript.
This publication was made possible thanks to the financial support of the French Government
through ADEME, and the United States Department of energy.
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